Here is a list of key financial
links and tables drawn from the investment material I've gathered up.
2002-4-15-Investing in the 21st Century Super-Bear Market
2002-4-16: Money Magazine's Michael Sivy on Super Bull and Super Bear Markets (Plus Investing Advice)
2002-4-18_First, the Bad News...
2002-4-19_And Now, the Good News...
Investments: I've incorporated some dates in my "Stock Market Mechanisms" treatise. I contributed to it in 1991, in 1997, in February, 2002, and again this month (April, 2002). I'm afraid it must have been very confusing without these dates.
I'm also re-evaluating the idea of a 32-year super-cycle.
From 1871 to 1914, the stock market appears to have remained in the upper half of its range. When it reached the top of its range (dividend yields of 2.8%) in about 1885 and 1905, it would withdraw to about the middle of its range (dividend yields of 4%-5%). It isn't until World War I that it falls to what would now be considered the bottom of its range (dividend yield of 2.8%).
It appears to have been about 24 years between the peak in 1905 and the peak in 1929. The next super-bear market bottom occurs during the recession of 1952, about 38 years after 1914. The next super-bull market peak shows up in 1966, 37 years after the 1929 peak. The next super-valley occurs in 1982, 30 years after the 1952 bottom. And the super-peak in 2000 occurred in the beginning of 2000, about 33.5 years after the 1966 super-peak.
The bottom in 1932 saw the Dow at 1/10th its value in 1929, where normally it would be about 1/3rd of its peak value. The top in 2000 saw the Dow (measured in terms of price-to-dividend, price-to-book, and price-to-earnings ratios) at about 4.5 its minimum value whereas normally, it would be about 3 times the values of these parameters at a super-bear market bottom.
The bottom line: there isn't a lot of consistency here upon which to hang a predictive model of the stock market, as I learned to my bemusement watching the stock market defy the laws of gravity in 1998 and 1999. Still, there is a general pattern of "what goes up must come down", even if a fit of "irrational exuberance" or black pessimism can carry the popular market averages beyond their normal limits.
2002-4-21_New, Higher $ Ceilings on IRA's, 401k's
2002-4-23_The Principal Problem in Saving for Retirement
2002-4-24_How to Make a Fortune in the Stock market by Watching Me and Then Doing the Opposite
2002-4-25-Chasing the Golden Bull
2002-4-26_Failing to Catch the Golden Bull
One possible approach to making money in the stock market may lie in buying a share or two of Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway is run by Warren Buffett, and has averaged an annual growth rate of 27% per year for the past 35 years, making Mr.Buffett one of the world's richest multi-billionaires. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway currently sell for $71,000, but I read a few years ago that there are non-voting shares that are available for a tenth of that price.
2002-4-27_....Where Angels Fear to Tread
2002-4-28_Analyzing the Long-Term Total Return on Stocks
2002-4-29_Shocking My Socks Off (or Why I Am Sockless Tonight)
2002-4-30_Making Money in a Fallen Market
Don't Settle for 1,500,000% Profit
5/3/2002: How High Can the Stock Market Go From Here?
5/4/2002: An Ill Wind That Would Blow No One Good!
5/5/2002: What Goes Up Must Come Down
5/6/2002: Two Conceivable Alternatives to Investing in the Stock Market
5/7/2002: What Next?
5/8/2002: Wandering Down Wall Street
5/12/2002: Will There Be a Day of Reckoning?
5/15/2002: Influences That Cause Stock Market Super-Cycles
5/16/2002: Ultra-High IQ CEOs, and Kondratieff Waves
5/18/2002: "Correcting for Inflation: Is It Possible?"
7/18/2002: Investment Update.
7/19/2002: Another welcome "down day" on Wall Street.
7/20/2002: Don't run with the herd, and sell now. Better days are coming.
7/21/2002: I've updated both Saturday's and Sunday's "editorials", and am uploading early, so you'll have time to read them before tomorrow.
7/22/2002: Investment Update
7/23/2002: Investment Update, 7/23/2002
7/24/2002: Is this a new bull market?
7/25/2002: Dow dropped 0.06%
8/3/2002: Curses! Swindled Again
8/4/2002: Where do we stand now, and where do we go from here?
8/5/2002: That sinking feeling.
8/6/2002: Today's Market Action
8/7/2002: A Quiet Day at the Bourse
8/8/2002: Are We Climbing a Wall of Worry, or Are We Slipping Down a Slope of Hope?
8/9/2002: "The Day When Absolutely Nothing Happened"
8/15/2002: Tonight's material is brief, and reports today's stock market action
9/17/2002: Updates: Intelligence and Investing
12/8/2002: "Stocks Still Rock, Bonds Will Bomb, and Cash is King"
12/13/2002: Investment Updates
1/22/2003: Iraq and the stock market
2/15/2003: The Economy