Daily Investment Interpretations Archive

July 1, 2013 - August 15, 2013

January 1, 2013 - March 31, 2013
October 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012
July 1, 2012, to September 30, 2012

January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2012
July 1, 2011, to December 31, 2011
January 1, 2011 to June 30, 2011
July 1, 2010, to December 31, 2010
.
January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2010
 
July 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009
January 1, 2009, to June 30, 2009
July 1, 2008, to December 31, 2008
May 7, 2008, to June 30, 2008


2013-8-15 (Thursday): Dow Falls Triple Digits; Macy's Drags Wall Street Lower; Stocks advance as Apple bounces. The NASDAQ Composite declined 15.17 points (-0.41%) to end at 3,669.27. The Dow plunged 113.35 points (-0.73%) to end at 15,377.66; the S&P 500 subtracted  8.77 points (-0.52%) to 1,685.39. Oil closed at 107.03:: Oil reverses course late for fourth session climb  Gold ended at 1,336: Gold closes higher to recoup much of recent loss, The VIX rose 0.73 to 13.04.           
   "Stocks fell on Wednesday after department store Macy's disappointed investors with weak results, dragging down consumer stocks. Apple jumped 2% on the day.".    
    "The broader market closed modestly higher Tuesday, but Apple, J.C. Penney and airline stocks were the big stories of the day. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Producer prices unchanged in July.    
    GDP reading boosts European stocks.    
    U.S. stocks hit day’s low: Fed, yields unsettle Street.    
    U.S. household debt plummets from 2008 peak.  

"The fall in household debt comes as
as mortgages are being repaid or, less flatteringly, are waived due to foreclosure."

    Is Apple too big for Carl Icahn to sway?"If the investor spent $1 billion, he's likely not even among the comany's 50 largest shareholders."  
    Stocks as overvalued now as at 2007 high.  "Here’s yet another reason to be worried about the stock market: A valuation model with an impressive record says shares are as overvalued today as they were at the 2007 peak."   
    How Gen Y workers miss out on money, perks.    
    What could slow Tesla.  "John Shinal says it's the same challenge faced by every tech company that’s first to find success in a new market." 
    This industry will revolutionize the Middle East.     
    How we're reducing debt —  and avoiding it.    
    America’s $60 trillion deadly enemy.   "Water shortages, pollution and other problems look set to drag down economic growth in the U.S. within the next decade or so, writes Paul B. Farrell."
    When dressing badly helps get a deal — and not.    
    Lynn: So what if China crashes-.    
    Ways to play Europe’s recovery.
    Doug Kass: 3 reasons to short the market.   "Uber-bear Doug Kaas offers three proofs that the market has peaked. And if three reasons aren't enough, then take 10." 
    Back to 1987 for stock market?"Our Trading Deck has been home to a spirited debate this week over whether we're in for a crash."  
    Michael A. Gayed: Sorry, but yes you should fret.  .   
    Is it all over for tech investors?.    
    Limit tax hit on sale of your second home"Own a vacation home that you’ve both rented out and lived in and want to sell ? Worried about the tax hit? Here's the answer to your problem"  
    U.K. house prices surge on rising demand.    
    Mortgage rates same for loans big and small.    
    Many jerks driving BMWs.  "Not one, but two academic studies find that those who drive BMWs are more likely to be rude and selfish motorists compared to those who drive other makes."  
    Housing recovery radar: The next 18 hot spots.  
    Watch: Wal-Mart faces rivals, online and off.    
    This might be when the market returns to normal.     
    Apple Reclaims $500 as Icahn Tweet Lures in Main Street.   "With a single tweet, billionaire Carl Icahn validated the power of social media and obliterated the notion of an efficient stock market. He also made himself more than $50M and 'unlocked value' to the tune of $22B for Apple."  
    Poll: Will Apple Stock Hit $700 Again?.    
    Walmart Earnings, Consumer Confidence: Take the Long View"Don't jump to conclusions on Walmart and consumer confidence on this week’s results alone, writes contributor Marek Fuchs."  
    Falling Energy Prices Keep Lid on Wholesale Inflation.    
    Elon Musk ‘Even More Amazing Than Steve Jobs,’ Says Jurvetson.    
    Gold: Wait for Further Pullback, Says Najarian.    
    Fed's Bullard: Why no press conference in Oct?-.    
 
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to Tapering Expectations-
.   "While I hate to restate the obvious, stocks have been going sideways for the better part of the past month. And as can be expected, the two combatants in our stock market game have differing opinions on what this means. "Sideways is the new down!" is the battle cry of the glass-is-at-least-half-full camp. However, on the other si... - See more at: http://stateofthemarkets.com/#sthash.8mAKKuYG.dpuf"  
    Market Wrap for Tuesday, August 13: Stocks Record Modest Gains; Treasuries Plunge.    
    Permalink to Europe Update: Eurozone Emerges From Recession.    
    Permalink to Sentiment Update: Investors Intelligence Shows Bullishness Pulls Back.    
    Permalink to Inflation Update: PPI Shows No Inflation at Producer Level
    A Need-To-Know Emerging Markets ETF .           
    Sony Rumored To Ship 10 Million PlayStation 4 Units, Topping Xbox One.    
    Carl Icahn Thinks Apple Is Worth $625 (AAPL).    
    
    Market futures are down ¼ % tonight.

2010 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Alternative Energy Investments     

Super-Bull Markets and Super-Bear Markets from 1871 to the Present

What's this going to do to my retirement? Can I ever make this up?

This "recession" is categorically different in cause and consequences than other recessions.

How large is the national debt, really?

What Should You Do About the Fluctuations in the Stock Market?

"With the economy sinking like a stone, how can anyone seriously claim that a new bull market is about to start?

2013-8-14 (Wednesday): Dow Falls Triple Digits; Macy's Drags Wall Street Lower; Stocks advance as Apple bounces. The NASDAQ Composite declined 15.17 points (-0.41%) to end at 3,669.27. The Dow plunged 113.35 points (-0.73%) to end at 15,377.66; the S&P 500 subtracted  8.77 points (-0.52%) to 1,685.39. Oil closed at 107.03:: Oil reverses course late for fourth session climb  Gold ended at 1,336: Gold closes higher to recoup much of recent loss, The VIX rose 0.73 to 13.04.           
   "Stocks fell on Wednesday after department store Macy's disappointed investors with weak results, dragging down consumer stocks. Apple jumped 2% on the day.".    
    "The broader market closed modestly higher Tuesday, but Apple, J.C. Penney and airline stocks were the big stories of the day. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Producer prices unchanged in July.    
    GDP reading boosts European stocks.    
    U.S. stocks hit day’s low: Fed, yields unsettle Street.    
    U.S. household debt plummets from 2008 peak
"The fall in household debt comes as
as mortgages are being repaid or, less flatteringly, are waived due to foreclosure."

    Is Apple too big for Carl Icahn to sway?"If the investor spent $1 billion, he's likely not even among the comany's 50 largest shareholders."  
    Stocks as overvalued now as at 2007 high.  "Here’s yet another reason to be worried about the stock market: A valuation model with an impressive record says shares are as overvalued today as they were at the 2007 peak."   
    How Gen Y workers miss out on money, perks.    
    What could slow Tesla.  "John Shinal says it's the same challenge faced by every tech company that’s first to find success in a new market." 
    This industry will revolutionize the Middle East.     
    How we're reducing debt —  and avoiding it.    
    America’s $60 trillion deadly enemy.   "Water shortages, pollution and other problems look set to drag down economic growth in the U.S. within the next decade or so, writes Paul B. Farrell."
    When dressing badly helps get a deal — and not.    
    Lynn: So what if China crashes-.    
    Ways to play Europe’s recovery.
    Doug Kass: 3 reasons to short the market.   "Uber-bear Doug Kaas offers three proofs that the market has peaked. And if three reasons aren't enough, then take 10." 
    Back to 1987 for stock market?"Our Trading Deck has been home to a spirited debate this week over whether we're in for a crash."  
    Michael A. Gayed: Sorry, but yes you should fret.  .   
    Is it all over for tech investors?.    
    Limit tax hit on sale of your second home"Own a vacation home that you’ve both rented out and lived in and want to sell ? Worried about the tax hit? Here's the answer to your problem"  
    U.K. house prices surge on rising demand.    
    Mortgage rates same for loans big and small.    
    Many jerks driving BMWs.  "Not one, but two academic studies find that those who drive BMWs are more likely to be rude and selfish motorists compared to those who drive other makes."  
    Housing recovery radar: The next 18 hot spots.  
    Watch: Wal-Mart faces rivals, online and off.    
    This might be when the market returns to normal.     
    Apple Reclaims $500 as Icahn Tweet Lures in Main Street.   "With a single tweet, billionaire Carl Icahn validated the power of social media and obliterated the notion of an efficient stock market. He also made himself more than $50M and 'unlocked value' to the tune of $22B for Apple."  
    Poll: Will Apple Stock Hit $700 Again?.    
    Walmart Earnings, Consumer Confidence: Take the Long View"Don't jump to conclusions on Walmart and consumer confidence on this week’s results alone, writes contributor Marek Fuchs."  
    Falling Energy Prices Keep Lid on Wholesale Inflation.    
    Elon Musk ‘Even More Amazing Than Steve Jobs,’ Says Jurvetson.    
    Gold: Wait for Further Pullback, Says Najarian.    
    Fed's Bullard: Why no press conference in Oct?-.    
 
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to Tapering Expectations-
.   "While I hate to restate the obvious, stocks have been going sideways for the better part of the past month. And as can be expected, the two combatants in our stock market game have differing opinions on what this means. "Sideways is the new down!" is the battle cry of the glass-is-at-least-half-full camp. However, on the other si... - See more at: http://stateofthemarkets.com/#sthash.8mAKKuYG.dpuf"  
    Market Wrap for Tuesday, August 13: Stocks Record Modest Gains; Treasuries Plunge.    
    Permalink to Europe Update: Eurozone Emerges From Recession.    
    Permalink to Sentiment Update: Investors Intelligence Shows Bullishness Pulls Back.    
    Permalink to Inflation Update: PPI Shows No Inflation at Producer Level
    A Need-To-Know Emerging Markets ETF .           
    Sony Rumored To Ship 10 Million PlayStation 4 Units, Topping Xbox One.    
    Carl Icahn Thinks Apple Is Worth $625 (AAPL).    
    
    Market futures are down ¼ % tonight.


2013-8-13 (Tuesday): , AppleWall Street rises on economic data, Apple rallies; Stocks advance as Apple bounces. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 14.49 points (0.39%) to end at 3,684,44. The Dow gained 31.33 points (0.20%) to end at 15,451.01; the S&P 500 added  4.69 points (0.28%) to 1,694.16. Oil closed at 106.56:: Oil futures tally three-session gain of 3%  Gold ended at 1,322: Gold prices end lower after four-session climb, The VIX dropped 0.50 to 12.31.           
   "Stocks rose on Tuesday after strong economic data including retail sales, while Apple boosted the Nasdaq after billionaire investor Carl Icahn revealed a long position in the stock. Rising U.S. retail ...".    
    "The broader market closed modestly higher Tuesday, but Apple, J.C. Penney and airline stocks were the big stories of the day. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Fed’s Lockhart: Little clear data to decide on QE taper.    
    Economic preview: Wholesale prices, Fed's Bullard to speak.    
    Crude-oil supply falls less than forecast.    
    Shanghai stocks rise"Mainland Chinese gain after a positive lead from Wall Street, while Australian shares turn choppy as CBA drops despite strong earnings."
    Apple jumps as Icahn tweets about ‘large’ stake"With its market value still more than 30% below its peak, Apple has drawn the gaze of investor activist Carl Icahn, who announced a “large position” on the iPhone maker’s stock on Tuesday afternoon."  
    Ellison, Icahn disagree sharply over Apple.     
    Carl Icahn sends a $12 billion Apple tweet.    
    Larry Ellison slams Google.  "Oracle CEO says Google has been evil, contrary to its stated mission, but not because it’s been sharing user data with the federal government." 
    Apple surpasses 200-day moving average.     
    Ellison also hints Apple is doomed without Jobs.    
    Signals of 1987-style crashes.   "Take a look at how the stock-market charts were set up just ahead of the massive wipeout of October 1987." 
    Quit worrying about a 1987-style crash.    
    Eight red flags to be aware of in this market.    
    Market technicals still support bull case.   
    End of Federal Reserve's ‘QE’? Bring it on.    
    Financial advisers an endangered species?.   "A decade ago, people said online and call-center brokers would kill the financial adviser. Has the time come?" 
    Kellner: Economy weak? Gift cards for all!.   
    Delamaide: Euro-euphoria is premature.    
    When kids should leave the nest"A new survey asks how long parents would let their adult children to live with them and how long kids would want to stay."  
    Women leave nest, but men stay with parents.    
    Stay-at-home kids strain boomer finances.    
    Many jerks driving BMWs.  "Not one, but two academic studies find that those who drive BMWs are more likely to be rude and selfish motorists compared to those who drive other makes."  
    Stocks hold their own as catalysts dry up  
    Gross boosts Treasury holdings.    
    An unexpected correction.  
    Europe May Now Be a Better Investment Than America.   "If your investment adviser suggests you look into Europe, don’t fire him. The beleaguered continent is finally starting to look like a decent bet."  
    Eurozone's longest-ever recession comes to an end.    

   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to What Do The Market Models Say – Part II
.   "
Although the S&P 500 is just a couple points off the all-time high set on August 2, there is an awful lot of chatter about stocks heading lower from here. There really isn't much in the way of new justification for the anticipated dance to the downside as the discussions continue to focus on "taper talk," the budget showdown, the slowdown in China, the el...Read More..."  
    Market Wrap for Tuesday, August 13: Stocks Record Modest Gains; Treasuries Plunge.    
    Permalink to Economic Update: NFIB Small Business Optimism Ticks Higher.    
    Permalink to Mexican Energy Legislation Could Be A Game Changer For Big Oil, Mexico And World Supply.    
    NAAIM Survey: Active Managers Still Siding With Bulls
    Permalink to Consumer Update: Retail Sales Pull Back in July .           
    iCahn Is Bullish On The iCahn-omy.    
    Europe Update: Germany, Eurozone ZEW Confidence Indices Improve Smartly.    
    
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2013-8-12 (Monday): Dow, S&P 500 end lower; Nasdaq lifted by BlackBerry, Apple; U.S. stocks in summer slump. The NASDAQ Composite declined 9.84 points (0.27%) to end at 3,669.95. The Dow slipped 5.83 points (-0.04%) to end at 15,419.68; the S&P 500 dipped  1.95 points (-0.12%) to 1,689.47. Oil closed at 106.06:: Oil futures mixed as Japan data disappoint  Gold ended at 1,333: Gold end higher, silver pushes above $21, The VIX dropped 0.60 to 12.81.           
   "The Dow and the S&P 500 indexes dipped on Monday, extending losses from Wall Street's worst week since June last week, but Apple and BlackBerry kept the Nasdaq index afloat. Trading volume was light, marking ...".    
    "U.S. stocks bounced around the breakeven line Monday before ending mixed. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    After UMich’s secret gets out, trading dries up.    
    Avi Gilburt: Has the market correction finally begun-.    
    Stocks turn mixed amid takeover talk.    
    Social Security now pays same-sex spouses"The key phrase in the Social Security Administration's statement in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling on the Defense of Marriage Act is "some spouses."
    Post misleading readers on Bezos: think tank.   
    Oil climbs on China data, but set for weekly loss.     
    Back-to-school sales are tough test for retailers.    
    Economists agree on taper timing.  "They are less in accord over when the first rate hike will come." 
    Bettors split over September, October taper.     
    Marsh on Monday Yellen, Merkel would be most powerful women.    
    Back-to-school sales are tough test for retailers.    
    Bette Midler slams Summers as Fed chief.    
    Market-moving data poor forecaster of growth.    
    Big gap in economists’ views on housing.   
    Detroit facing pressure from rising rates.    
    7 cities at risk if sea levels rise.    
    An unexpected correction.   
    Merkel win would help German stocks.    
    How to prep for a market crash  
    Where the recent bond selloff ranks.    
    Market in a minute: Is it time to sell puts-.    
    Target-date retirement ETFs miss the mark.    
    Keep your college students safe, smart.  
    European stocks close at two-month high.    
    Fed's cues on rates more critical than bond buys: Fed study.  
    Next Fed Chair Will Lead Us to ‘Economic Ruin,’ Says Peter Schiff.     
    'Hindenburg Omen' hovers over Wall Street again.    
    Is Wall Street Now Immune to D.C. Dysfunction?"Has the market proven this year that it’s immune to the feckless, crisis-stoking battles of a polarized legislature?"  
    U.S. Posts $98B Budget Deficit in July.  "The United States ran a budget deficit in July, although government revenues increased from a year earlier due to tax hikes and a strengthening economy, a report from the Treasury showed on Monday." 
    America Leads the Way as Emerging Nations Like China Fade.  "The U.S., Japan and Europe are back on top as the drivers of the global economy, unseating the emerging world led by China, India and Brazil."
    Japan growth slows in second quarter, adds to sales tax uncertainty.  
    Buyback Binge: Another Sign of a Market Peak?  "It has been six years since we last saw a spike in stock buybacks, and it has also been six years since we last saw a market crash."    
    How to Avoid Working One More Year"One of the greatest health hazards of growing older has long been losing access to health insurance before reaching age 65 and qualifying for Medicare. Beginning next year, this will change under Obamacare."    
    Watch: Musk's 'Hyperloop' theory is hyper-fast.   
    10 glimpses of Elon Musk’s Hyperloop transit dream"Tesla CEO Elon Musk proposes a radical new transport system between San Francisco and Los Angeles to speed passengers between the two cities in about half an hour."  
    ‘Hyperloop’ plan: L.A. to S.F. in half hour for $20.    
    'Almost no true stock bears ... and that worries me'..     
    'Buffett of Canada' says he's a big bull on the US.      
    S&P 500 headed to '1,500 or below': Strategist.    
    Actually, interest rates are still too high.    
    U.S. retail-sales report holds key economic clues.     
    Watch materials for stocks' next moves.    
    'Great Rotation'? More like 'Great Vacation'.    
    Currency wars drive gold rush"Commentary: Cody Willard says the currency race to the bottom among the world's central banks means it's time to buy precious metals."  
    Fed is falling out of love with ‘QE’"Economists at the San Francisco Fed estimate that asset purchases add only “a moderate boost” to economic growth."  
    Economists agree on taper time.    
    Market-moving data poor forecaster of growth.    
    Big gap in economists’ views on housing.    
    10 things medical marijuana biz won’t say.    
   
High-speed tube travel not as crazy as it sounds.    

   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to Things Are Looking Iffy, What Do The Market Models Say-
.   "
Okay, let's break it down. It's August. It's the height of the vacation season (and mine doesn't start until the 21st). The markets are going sideways. Volume is very light (SPY volume has been below average for 27 straight trading days). Earnings season has just about ended. There hasn't been an important piece of economic data in a week (although that...Read More..."  
    Market Wrap For Monday, August 12: Stocks Close Mixed To Start Week.    
    Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Silver Continues Strong Rally as Sarepta Remains Down.    
    Permalink to Global Update: Japan GDP Growth Well Below Expectations.    
    NAAIM Survey: Active Managers Still Siding With Bulls
    U.S. Postal Service Posts $740 Million Loss And May Default On Pension Payment .           
    
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2013-8-9 (Friday): Wall Street posts worst week since June with Fed in mind; Stocks end three-day losing streak. The NASDAQ Composite declined 9.02 points (-0.25%) to end at 3,660.11. The Dow gained 72.01 points (-0.47%) to end at 15,425.51; the S&P 500 dipped  6.06 points (-0.38%) to 1,691.42. Oil closed at 106.03:: Oil boosted by China data, trims weekly loss  Gold ended at 1,314: Gold futures rise for third session in a row, The VIX jumped 0.68 to 13.41.           
   "Stocks fell on Friday and posted their biggest weekly decline since June as investors focused on when the Federal Reserve would begin to scale back its stimulus. All but one of the 10 S&P 500 sector indexes ...".    
    "U.S. stocks ended slightly higher Tuesday, breaking a three-day losing streak. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Fed is cornered: economist.    
    Doomsayer Marc Faber is crying ‘wolf’: 1987-style crash in cards.    
    One way to prep for a market crash.    
    Chinese output leaps 9.7%.    
    China’s urban sludge dilemma.   
    Oil climbs on China data, but set for weekly loss.     
    U.S.’s oil-rich states"Ten states account for roughly 94% of all onshore U.S. reserves"   
    Stock bull at Guggenheim says take profits.   
    Small caps smoke bigger peers"Feeling the itch to go big on small-cap stocks? That’s an understandable temptation for investors who’ve missed out on the equity rally, but strategists say be careful."   
    Small Caps vs. Large Caps- Which Is the Better Bet Now-.    
    Doug Kass: 3 reason why I’m right on stocks.    
    30-year-mortgage rate ticks up to 4.40%.    
    10 best places for a vacation home.  "Despite rising mortgage rates, many are hunting for a second home. Here's the pick of places to look in the U.S."  
    One way to pay for food stamps.  "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have sent over $80 billion to the U.S. Treasury over the first half of 2013 — enough to cover the entire cost of the food-stamps program."  
    Fannie Mae reports $10.1 billion profit.    
    Delamaide: Ideology drives mortgage debate.    
    ‘Obi Wan’ McCain is last hope for budget deal.   
    Fed speakers deliver messages on tapering.    
    3 dividend stocks to dump now"As rates tick higher, it will be harder for many investors to justify dividend stocks as their best low-risk investment, writes Jeff Reeves."  
    Bill Gross: ‘Carry on’ with bonds.  "He calls this 'the most important conceptual change I have ever written about.'"  
    Pimco's Gross vows victory in 'bond wars'.    
    Watch: Why Bill Gross will lose the bond war.    
    Should Wall Street bail out Detroit?.  "Taxpayers and pensioners will pay a price in this bankruptcy, but how about Wall Street?"
    0% loans will cripple the car industry.    
    The beginning of the end for bulls.  
    A bullish sign for Spain.     
    Fallen angels take flight.    
    Bank of England follows Fed on QE guidance"New BOE governor Mark Carney says policy will depend on a joblessness target, in his first major speech as head of the U.K. central bank."  
    Last chapter for independent bookstores? Not yet.   
    S&P 1,900 possible in 12 months? JPMorgan's Lee.  
    Watch: ETFs wield big influence over fund industry.  
    Afraid of living too long? You may want to buy this.    
    Exclusive: U.S. steps up probe of JPMorgan over Bear mortgage bonds.    
    Retailers boost July sales with heavy discounts, promotions.   
    U.S. slowly opening up commercial drone industry..     
    American Dream: Moving Out of the Suburbs.      
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to When Everyone Is Talking About A Pause…
.   "Here we go again. After three consecutive red closes, the masses are now absolutely, positively sure of what is going to happen next. If I heard it once yesterday, I heard it ten times: it is time for the market to pause. Never mind the fact that the now deafening chorus projecting a time-out in the market is occurring after stocks have basically gone nowhere for... - See more at: http://stateofthemarkets.com/#sthash.7mc3r7hF.dpuf"  
    Market Wrap for Thursday, August 8- Stocks Snap Losing Streak With Modest Rally.    
    State's Market Models - 8/8.    
    Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Markets Rising as Oil Cools Off.    
    Permalink to Unemployment Update: Weekly Jobless Claims Rise In Latest Week.    
    Permalink to Consumer Update: Bloomberg Comfort Index Surges.        
    
    The market indices continue to churn in a trading range..


2013-8-8 (Thursday): Wall Street rebounds to end three-day drop as Microsoft gains; Stocks end three-day losing streak. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 15.11 points (0.41%) to end at 3,669.12. The Dow gained 27.65 points (018%) to end at 15,498.32; the S&P 500 accumulateded  6.57 points (0.39%) to 1,697.48. Oil closed at 103.75:: Oil drops for 5th straight day; natural gas jumps  Gold ended at 1,312: Gold jumps above $1,300; industrial metals rise, The VIX rose 0.25 to 12.73.           
   "Stocks advanced on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing skid as a rally in Microsoft helped lift the technology sector. The three major U.S. stock indexes shook off early losses as Microsoft shares climbed. ...".    
    "U.S. stocks ended slightly higher Tuesday, breaking a three-day losing streak. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Jobless claims stay near 5-year low.    
    Regional banks are turning the corner: analysts.    
    Gold reclaims $1,300 level as copper hits 2-mo. high.    
    Regional banks are turning the corner: analysts.    
    European stocks climb after China trade data.   
    China exports, imports rebound strongly.     
    5 signs a zombie apocalypse is at hand"A zombie epidemic would explain the tendency of financial commentators to be so nonsensically upbeat, says Brett Arends."   
    Stock bull at Guggenheim says take profits.   
    Small caps smoke bigger peers"Feeling the itch to go big on small-cap stocks? That’s an understandable temptation for investors who’ve missed out on the equity rally, but strategists say be careful."   
    Small Caps vs. Large Caps- Which Is the Better Bet Now-.    
    Doug Kass: 3 reason why I’m right on stocks.    
    30-year-mortgage rate ticks up to 4.40%.    
    10 best places for a vacation home.  "Despite rising mortgage rates, many are hunting for a second home. Here's the pick of places to look in the U.S."  
    One way to pay for food stamps.  "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have sent over $80 billion to the U.S. Treasury over the first half of 2013 — enough to cover the entire cost of the food-stamps program."  
    Fannie Mae reports $10.1 billion profit.    
    Delamaide: Ideology drives mortgage debate.    
    ‘Obi Wan’ McCain is last hope for budget deal.   
    Fed speakers deliver messages on tapering.    
    3 dividend stocks to dump now"As rates tick higher, it will be harder for many investors to justify dividend stocks as their best low-risk investment, writes Jeff Reeves."  
    Bill Gross: ‘Carry on’ with bonds.  "He calls this 'the most important conceptual change I have ever written about.'"  
    Pimco's Gross vows victory in 'bond wars'.    
    Watch: Why Bill Gross will lose the bond war.    
    Should Wall Street bail out Detroit?.  "Taxpayers and pensioners will pay a price in this bankruptcy, but how about Wall Street?"
    0% loans will cripple the car industry.    
    The beginning of the end for bulls.  
    A bullish sign for Spain.     
    Fallen angels take flight.    
    Bank of England follows Fed on QE guidance"New BOE governor Mark Carney says policy will depend on a joblessness target, in his first major speech as head of the U.K. central bank."  
    Last chapter for independent bookstores? Not yet.   
    S&P 1,900 possible in 12 months? JPMorgan's Lee.  
    Watch: ETFs wield big influence over fund industry.  
    Afraid of living too long? You may want to buy this.    
    Exclusive: U.S. steps up probe of JPMorgan over Bear mortgage bonds.    
    Retailers boost July sales with heavy discounts, promotions.   
    U.S. slowly opening up commercial drone industry..     
    American Dream: Moving Out of the Suburbs.      
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to When Everyone Is Talking About A Pause…
.   "Here we go again. After three consecutive red closes, the masses are now absolutely, positively sure of what is going to happen next. If I heard it once yesterday, I heard it ten times: it is time for the market to pause. Never mind the fact that the now deafening chorus projecting a time-out in the market is occurring after stocks have basically gone nowhere for... - See more at: http://stateofthemarkets.com/#sthash.7mc3r7hF.dpuf"  
    Market Wrap for Thursday, August 8- Stocks Snap Losing Streak With Modest Rally.    
    State's Market Models - 8/8.    
    Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Markets Rising as Oil Cools Off.    
    Permalink to Unemployment Update: Weekly Jobless Claims Rise In Latest Week.    
    Permalink to Consumer Update: Bloomberg Comfort Index Surges.        
    
    Stock futures are slightly higher tonight.


2013-8-7 (Wednesday): Wall Street Dips for Third Session on Fed Uncertainty; Stocks fall for third day on Fed fears. The NASDAQ Composite lost 11.76 points (-0.32%) to end at 3,654.01. The Dow slid 48.07 points (0.31%) to end at 15,470.67; the S&P 500 retrenched  6.46 points (-0.38%) to 1,690.91. Oil closed at 104.19:: ISMOil falls after supply drops less than expected  Gold ended at 1,283: Gold gains, snapping six-session losing streak, The VIX rose 0.26 to 12.98.           
   "U.S. stocks fell for a third straight day on Wednesday on growing uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may start to wind down its stimulus, which has been a major force behind the run higher in equities this year.".    
    "Tapering fears are back. Stocks finished in the red Wednesday amid new talk that the Federal Reserve may soon begin to slow the pace of its controversial asset purchases. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Cashin: Here's why markets are nervous today.    
    Wall Street Still Addicted to Fed Stimulus Like a “Drug” Says Blodget.    
    How to make your nest egg last 40 years in retirement.  "Running out of money before you run out of life is a significant risk, says Paul Merriman."  
    Six countries where savings-account interest rates top 10%.    
    Paul B. Farrell: Big Banks Conspiracy threatens capitalist system.   
    How to juggle multiple retirement accounts.  "There’s nothing wrong with juggling multiple retirement accounts. But it pays to think holistically. It’s not just asset allocation, it’s asset location, too."   
    Fed's Pianalto joins taper chorus"Fed official says she backs tapering QE on clearer signs of recovery in labor market over past months."   
    Fed's Pianalto prepared for QE retreat if job gains continue.   
    Where Fed officials stand on QE taper"It is a crucial time for the Federal Reserve. Here's what key central bank officials have been saying recently about tapering in September."   
    'Septaper' buzzes up the charts.    
    Your guide to Fedspeak Part II — with GIFs.    
    Factbox: Fed officials' comments on U.S. economy, policy.    
    How to play this fall's debt-ceiling fight.  "Lawmakers will debate spending for next fiscal year when they return for summer break. Here's what part of the market stands to gain."  
    Obama's housing Q&A with Zillow.    
    Obama cancels one-on-one meeting with Putin.    
    Tesla is the perfect ‘short’ right now"Electric sports sedan maker's shares are trading 140% above their 200-day moving average."  
    Tesla's stock run just beginning: Analyst.    
    .Tesla Posts Surprise Profit; Shares Jump"
Tesla posted a surprise profit of 20 cents a share for the second quarter on $405 million in revenue on Wednesday, sending shares higher in after-hours trading."  
    The secret of David Tepper's 2013 success.    
    Hedge-fund moves and insider trades ».  
    Central banks admit they had it wrong.    
    Buffett plays a different game.  
    Is the summer rally over?.     
    Insider-trading activity is heating up.    
    Reform immigration, save Social Security"The U.S. immigration system is broken, and that's reason enough to fix it, says Alicia H. Munnell. Potential positive impact on Social Security provides another rationale."   
    Shale gas will create winners, losers.   
    Blame Europe for the next bank failure.  
    Fitch affirms Germany's AAA rating; outlook stable.  
     European stocks drop on BOE, U.S. taper woes.    
    Wall Street in 2013 Stokes Misty Memories of 1982.  "Alex Rodriguez isn’t the only one whose career is on the line because of alleged drug use. As more firms require tests, more candidates are failing."  
    US is becoming the 'refiner to the world'..   
    Watch: How far would you go for a McDonald’s?-..     
    Job Market Woes Hit One Unlucky Group Hard.  "It's not as if the job market is blazing hot for anyone lately, but new data show that one key demographic group that has historically been a leader, is now badly falling behind."  
    Job openings flat in June but still above historical averages.    
    Obama Aims to Pass Housing Reform Measures This Year.  "President Barack Obama said Wednesday he would push to have a broad package of housing reform measures passed through Congress by the end of the year."
    Cloud fears to drive new growth sector?.    
    China risks rise as growth model shifts.      
    Retail Sales: Don’t Look to July for Guidance on December"It's not as if the job market is blazing hot for anyone lately, but new data show that one key demographic group that has historically been a leader, is now badly falling behind."  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to What Do The Cycles Say About August?
.   "Although stocks are clearly in an uptrend at the present time, one could not be blamed for feeling like the dog-days of summer are upon us. With the exception of just a couple solid up days, the stock market has spent the vast majority of the last three weeks going sideways. But with the Russell 2000 finishing Monday at a fresh all-time high, the NASDAQ closing at another ... Read More"  
    Permalink to Do The Bears Have a Point (or Three)?.  "To be sure, those seeing the glass as at least half empty have had a rough go of it this year. And truth be told, it has been about eight months since the bears have been able to put any real fear on the table. In short, the S&P 500 is a little less than one percent away from sporting a 20 percent gain on the year while the NASDAQ, Midcap 400, and Smallcap indices all ... Read More... - See more at: http://stateofthemarkets.com/#sthash.D1j5Enr1.dpuf"  
    Market Wrap for Wednesday, August 7: Uncertainty Over Fed Timeline Weighs On Sentiment.    
    Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Markets Down Across the Board as Traders Brace Themselves for Tesla Earnings After the Close.    
    Tesla Soars After Q2 Results Beat Estimates (TSLA).    
    Jobs Update: Gallup Job Creation Index Down in July.    
    Europe Update: German Industrial Production Above Expectations.    
   Germany Could Lead Eurozone Out Of Recession .    
    
    Stock futures are 0.25% higher tonight.


2013-8-6 (Tuesday): Wall Street Falls on Fed Anxiety; Stocks in the summer doldrums. The NASDAQ Composite lost 27.18 points (-0.74%) to end at 3,665.77. The Dow slid 93.39 points (0.60%) to end at 15,518.74; the S&P 500 retrenched  2.53 points (-0.15%) to 1,707.14. Oil closed at 106.28::Oil slips as Libya production counters ISM  Gold ended at 1,283: Gold loses grip on $1,300 in sixth straight drop, The VIX fell 0.88 to 12.72.           
   "U.S. stocks dropped for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, after comments from a pair of U.S. Federal Reserve officials left investors uncertain about the timing of a possible reduction in its bond-buying program.".    
    "Stocks can't escape the August doldrums. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    U.S. stocks fall sharply as dovish Evans talks taper.    
    Surging U.S. oil production keeps a lid on trade deficit.    
    Oil caught in ‘downward pull’.   
    EPA’s renewable-fuels rules.     
    El-Erian to Obama: Pick next Fed chief now.    
    Even Fed thinks bond selloff looks like 1994.    
    U.S. citizens urged to leave Yemen.    
    Stock-market bull case lifts S&P to 1,936.    
    Microsoft's big tablet bust.   "Latest product snafu opens software maker to more criticism, possible board struggle." 
    U.S. job openings at highest level since 2008.    
    Evans sees tapering, pickup in second half"Economic fundamentals really are better, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says."  
    Place bets on Fed tapering.    
    Home-price growth near 7-year high.  
    GDP revisions pull the rug out from under us.  "What used to be minor revisions are turning into anything but that, says Irwin Kellner."  
    How doctors’ malpractice fears cost you.  
    The other bull: Treasury yields.     
    Why Bezos bought the Washington Post.    
    Buffett plays a different game.    
    Large investors are gung-ho for growth.   
    ChartingS&P 500’s break to all-time highs.  
    GM Volt zapped in electric-car price war.  

"General Motors cut the starting price of its latest Chevrolet Volt electric car by 13%, expanding a price war among makers of plug-in vehicles in response to sluggish demand."
  
   The Facebook indicator says sell.  "In these U.S. cities, Americans living below the poverty linke had a less than 10% chance of making it into the top tier of earners."  
    Wall Street in 2013 Stokes Misty Memories of 1982.  "It's just about the most audaciously optimistic investment opinion one could utter, yet a relative handful of Wall Street voices is beginning to say it, out loud and assertively: This market has passed through a '1982 moment.'"  
    Stocks Are in a “Correction Zone” but Don’t Cash Out: Ablin..   
    Obama Rejects 'Socialist' Label, Urges Bigger Private Role in Housing Market."President Barack Obama, dismissing “folks who call me a socialist,” laid out a sweeping plan Tuesday for overhauling the nation’s housing policy by giving private capital a bigger role."    
    U.S. Accuses Bank of America of Mortgage-Backed Securities Fraud.  "The U.S. government on Tuesday filed two civil lawsuits against Bank of America for what the Justice Department and securities regulators said was a fraud on investors involving $850 million of residential mortgage-backed securities."  
    Watch: These stocks can make you broke.    
    Rethinking that '4 percent' retirement rule.  
    Keeping up with the Joneses just got tougher.    
    Wall Street Falls on Fed Anxiety.    
    What Do the July Fed Statement and Intermarket Relationships Say About Interest ….    
    Why Focusing on Yellen's Gender Sets a 'Dangerous Precedent'  "Yellen’s accomplishments should be viewed without the stigma of being a woman, says Heidi Moore, The Guardian’s U.S. finance and economics editor."    
    Pandemic of pension woes plagues nation.    
    A Dream House in 30 Days, Saving $300,000.   "If you don't want to break the bank to build your dream house the traditional way, consider a pre-fab home to stay under budget and move in quicker." 
    What Student Debt? How the Other Millennials Think About Money..    .        
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Permalink to What Do The Cycles Say About August?
.   "Although stocks are clearly in an uptrend at the present time, one could not be blamed for feeling like the dog-days of summer are upon us. With the exception of just a couple solid up days, the stock market has spent the vast majority of the last three weeks going sideways. But with the Russell 2000 finishing Monday at a fresh all-time high, the NASDAQ closing at another ... Read More"  
    Market Wrap for Tuesday, August 6:- Possibility Of September Fed Taper Weighs On Risk Assets.    
    As Tech Dividends Rise, ETF Outpaces Some Key Holdings.    
    Palladium ETF Smacking GLD Around.    
    
    Stock futures are 0.15% lower tonight.


2013-8-5 (Monday): ; Dow, S&P 500 End Weaker in Low Volume; Stocks drift back to Earth. The NASDAQ Composite gained 3.36 points (0.09%) to end at 3,692.95. The Dow slid 46.23 points (0.30%) to end at 15,612.13; the S&P 500 retrenched  2.53 points (-0.15%) to 1,707.14. Oil closed at 106.28::Oil slips as Libya production counters ISM  Gold ended at 1,305: Gold futures extend losses but stay above $1,300, The VIX fell 0.14 to 11.84.           
   "Stocks drifted lower in low volume on Monday, following record closes for the Dow and the S&P 500 last week, as a lack of major news left the market directionless.".    
    "Stocks took a breather Monday, after hitting record highs once again last week. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    U.S. stocks end mostly lower as Fed's Fisher makes case for tapering.    
    Markets on top two years after U.S. downgrade.    
    Investors poured $40 billion into stocks in July.   
    Gold tumbled in milliseconds before ISM report.     
    Banks loosen loan standards, demand up: Fed..    
    The case to go long Europe"If you’re worried U.S. stocks are overbought, Jeff Reeves makes the case for buying Europe now."  
    Where to put money with Europe on the mend.    
    5 reasons not to contribute to your 401(k).  "Cliff Goldstein explains cases where dumping cash into a retirement fund is imprudent."  
    Judge got his facts wrong in 401(k) case.    
    How much is too much to pay for a 401(k)?.    
    Weddings get too costly — for guests"As the cost of attending ceremonies tops $500, the number of people turning down the invitation grows."  
    10 things the wedding industry won’t tell you.    
    Australia braces for rate cut (video).  "Lessons that public-school systems can draw from one South Korean instructor's success."
    Meet the teacher who makes four million.  "Lessons that public-school systems can draw from one South Korean instructor's success."  
    How much do you need to retire?.  "Robert Powell spells out an approach to saving that seeks to balance what you need with how much you can afford to sock away."    
    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to buy the Washington Post.   "Amazon.com Inc founder Jeff Bezos will buy the Washington Post newspaper for $250 million in a surprise deal that ends the Graham family's 80 years of ownership and hands one of the country's most influential ..." 
    Graham, Bezos hashed out Washington Post deal in Sun Valley"Donald Graham, the chairman and CEO of The Washington Post Co, started talking to Amazon.com's Jeff Bezos less than a month before cinching a $250 million deal to sell the flagship newspaper to the tech ..."  
    Therese Poletti: Can Jeff Bezos reinvent the newspaper-.    
    U.S. health-care hiring slowing down.    
    Obamacare will create these new jobs.  "Here are some of the hottest jobs currently accepting applications thanks to the law."  
    Insiders are sending buy alerts.  
    Carl Icahn scores another win.  "Chesapeake is up 70% since mid-May 2012, a win for Icahn who has a big stake in the natural gas and oil producer."  
   10 cities where the poor can’t get rich.  "In these U.S. cities, Americans living below the poverty linke had a less than 10% chance of making it into the top tier of earners."  
    Is your housing market hot or not?.    
    Bulls feel invincible, but shouldn’t..   
    Law of one price has been violated..     
    Stock roller coaster set for sickening drop.    
    A cheap option trade if long is wrong.    
    Market bulls keep upside pressure on.  
    Pimco bloodletting continues.    
    Hot fund managers will burn you.    
    This small-cap portfolio is crushing yours.    
    S&P 500 on the road to 2,000: Strategist.    
    Pandemic of pension woes plagues nation.    
    Shrunken workforce gives Fed added policy headroom.   "So many workers have left the job market in recent years that the decline in the official unemployment rate to 7.4 percent last month may understate the extent of weakness in employment prospects. This ..." 
    See: Cool summer could hurt retail sales.    
    Output in emerging market economies contract in July- HSBC.   
    Billionaire Revealed: The Biggest Company You’ve Never Heard Of.    
    Is U.S. Manufacturing Dead? Filmmakers Seek to Revitalize ‘Made in America’ .    
    Gas Prices Nearing the ‘Danger Zone,’ Says Kleintop..   
    S&P’s Downgrade of America: Two Years Later, Where Are We Now?.    
     
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
History Shows Bears May Continue To Be Frustrated.   "EWith the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, continuing to confound the bears and finishing Friday at fresh all-time highs, there is little doubt that the bulls remain in charge of the game at the present time. And for anyone wishing to argue with me on this point, I present (a) the charts of the S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ, and (b) the fact that the S&P is now up +19.9% year-to-date, the NASDAQ is up +22.2%, and the Smallcap index (IWM) has ... Read More »"  
    ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Jumps in July.  "The latest report on the state of the services sector was surprisingly strong. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index as well as all of the component indices surged in the month of July ... Read More »"  
    Top Stocks: Biotech Dominates Top Rankings.    
    ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Jumps in July.    
    Eurozone Services PMI's Improve in July.    
    China Non-Manufacturing PMI Surprises To The Upside   
    Join Host Dave M. Sunday Night For Marketfy's Roundtable: Profiting From Detroit's Mess.    

    Stock futures are mixed tonight.
2013-8-2 (Friday): ; Stocks hit new highs despite jobs data; Lousy jobs report: Wall Street says 'meh'. The NASDAQ Composite gained 13.85 points (0.38%) to end at 3,689.59. The Dow jumped 30.34 points (0.83%) to end at 15,658.36; the S&P 500 climbed  2.8 points (0.16%) to 1,709.67. Oil closed at 107.78::Oil futures near $108, close up 2.7%  Gold ended at 1,313: Gold comes off its lows, but ends week down, The VIX fell 0.51 to 12.94.           
   "With earnings season winding down and the employment report out of the way, the U.S. stock market is likely to shift into a lower gear next week. The earnings season so far has been largely positive with more than half of the companies that have reported beating estimates.".    
    "Wall Street doesn't like the jobs report, but it doesn't hate it either. Welcome to the "meh" market. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Wall St. Week Ahead: Market to shift into lower gear as earnings, data fade.    
    Hiring slows in July but jobless rate falls to four-year low.   
    Why the U.S. unemployment rate fell in July.     
    Fed's Bullard: drop in jobless a step closer to QE exit threshold.    
    Have We Become a Nation of Hamburger Flippers?"The july job report fell short of expectations, but some economists say they aren't surprised."  
    'Marijuana Is a Vegetable' and Belongs in the Farmers’ Market: Pot VC.    
    The $7 Trillion Problem That Could Sink Asia.    
    Cupcake rip-off! Mixes shrink, prices don't.    
    Yes, the rich are different: They don't retire.   
    Why it's so expensive to be poor.    
    Watch: How data saves money on legal fees.  
    Hiring slows in July but jobless rate falls to four-year low.  "Employers slowed their pace of hiring in July but the jobless rate fell anyway, a pair of mixed signals that could make the Federal Reserve more cautious about drawing down its huge economic stimulus program. ..."  
    SEC Nabs ‘Fabulous Fab’: Why Wall Street Should Be Terrified.  ""Fabulous Fab" is now internationally known for defrauding investors over a $1 billion in mortgage bond deal that blew up."    
    Instant Analysis of July Jobs Report; D-Day for Dell?.  "The July jobs reports fell decidedly short of estimates. The Labor Department says there were 162,000 new jobs added during the month,"  
    Poll: How Healthy Is Job Market Right Now?.    
    When Home Buyers Ask Mom and Dad for Cash.    
    Learn to Stop Worrying — and Start Saving.  "Many people fret over their finances, but few take action. Here’s what you should be doing to work toward financial security."  
    Watch: A sector pick for sluggish jobs.  
    Emerging Markets Stabilizing.    
    Here’s What Republicans Think About Defunding Obamacare.    
    Strengthening Economy Trumps Weak Payroll Data: Paulsen.    
    Europe Is Stabilizing But Still Too Early to Buy, Says Kleintop..   
    Detroit Goes Begging as Obama Sends Money Overseas..     
    Jobs & President Obama: A Close Look At His Record.    
    Why Even Rich People Are Having Trouble Getting a Mortgage..  
    ETFs you should check out if you like investing like Warren Buffett.    
    Don’t get tempted by leveraged ETFs.    
    How Congress treated itself to Obamacare.    
    Forget chatter, buy and hold still works.    
    Energy sector is poised to break out.    
    Hidden pitfalls when tempted by leverage.   "You know the market goes up over time. Why not take advantage with leverage?" 
    State Department issues alert over terror threat.    
    The monumental gaffes of Silvio Berlusconi.   
    Are most new jobs part-time? Probably not.    
    Commentary: Congress puts brakes on jobs.    
    Is this the end for the debit card?.   "Court paves way for further reduction in the “swipe” fees that banks levy on merchants for debit cards."
    Get rich quick by conning others on TV.    
    Tweeting about a new job can get you sued.  "Status updates about being excited to start a job at a new company could have consequences beyond jealous friends." 
    Shop smart to cut fees on retirement assets.    
    Offset taxes from deferred-comp plans.  "How to best protect your income streams when making decisions years in advance." 
    How are you really doing in this market?.     
    Boomers: Get job recruiters on your side.. 
    Congress goes on leave; big items in limbo"Congress has yet to pass any of the 12 regular spending bills for next year, heightening the chances of a partial government shutdown."  
    Why I buy stocks"In a nation with little faith in the markets, here are reasons to believe."    
    How Many Americans Actually Have Full-Time Work?.    
    Main St., Wall St. could be on collision course.    
    Obama nominates Koskinen to head IRS.    
    U.S. closing embassies on Sunday.    
    8 high-tech jobs that don’t require a degree.    
    Retirees get a break on Medicare drug costs""Part D" premiums for prescription drugs are projected to rise only $1 a month in 2014; competition is holding prices down."  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Using The Wrong Word Again.   "Each of the past three days, I've stumbled into my office at around 5:00 am anxious to see if the futures had succumbed to some big, bad event overnight. Stocks have enjoyed a nice run of late and as such, have become overbought. Thus, the bear argument that the indices are currently ripe for a correction kept ringing in my ears. Although there have been issues with Chinese data, concerns about the Yen, and more data from across the pond than I can shake a stick at, each and every morning I was greeted with green screens in the wee hours. Each and every day ... Read More »"  
    Jobs Report: Payrolls Less Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.4%.  "The Employment Situation Report is one of the most closely watched pieces of economic data of the month. Why? Because ... Read More »"  
    Factory Orders Disappoint in June.    
    Personal Incomes Below Expectations But Spending Above.    
    Early Analysis: Japan, Jobs Report in Focus.    

    The market has exited from its trading range moving in the direction it was going when it entered its trading range... up... a classic pattern.


2013-8-1 (Thursday): Stock market exultant: S&P 500 tops 1,700; S&P 500 tops 1,700 for first time. The NASDAQ Composite gained 49.37 points (1.36%) to end at 3,675.74. The Dow jumped 128.48 points (0.83%) to end at 15,628.02; the S&P 500 climbed  21.14 points (1.25%) to 1,706.87. Oil closed at 107.78::Oil futures near $108, close up 2.7%  Gold ended at 1,306: Gold down a third day as ISM feeds dollar lift, The VIX fell 0.51 to 12.94.           
   "Stocks rise sharply after data show jobless claims falling to a five-year low and a manufacturing index surges to a two-year high. The action sends the S&P 500 to its highest level in history.".    
    "Welcome to August! The Dow and S&P 500 rallied to new highs straight out of the gate Thursday and never looked back. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    S&P 500 Tops 1,700 for First Time Ever: What Comes Next?"It's hard to believe, but the S&P 500 went six entire sessions without hitting a fresh, new all-time high. But thanks to the Fed's dovish assessment of the economy Wednesday afternoon, traders were given all the incentive they need."  
    S&P 500 Is Headed to 1750: Bank of America’s Subramanian.    
    Brett Arends: Return of ‘Dow 36,000’"Once again, people on the Street of Shame are penciling in a 36,000 target on the Dow. But this time there is a big difference."  
    Five big reasons this bull market remains unloved"Jeff Reeves says there are five main reasons bull-market deniers are getting it all wrong."  
    Why S&P 500 at 1,700 is a 'yellow light' for Wall Street.    
    Contrarian: Stocks still have room to run.    

    Who’s hiring right now and what those jobs pay.   

    "The U.S. has regained more than four-fifths of the 8.8 million jobs lost in the private sector during the last recession.".  
    Treasurys dive as data raise Fed fears.    
    U.S. jobless claims drop to five-year low.      
    ISM manufacturing index surges in July.    
    Draghi finds way to be vague on transparency.    
    Bank Of England chief Carney's powers of persuasion.    
    Bitter Fed feud may boost Hillary.  "Hillary Clinton stands to benefit from the backlash as the president favors Larry Summers over Janet Yellen for the top Fed job, writes Darrell Delamaide."  
    Senator: Cap mortgage breaks in budget deal.  
    Mortgage rates now a buyer stumbling block.    
    Treasury yields jump on positive data.    
    How technology can make you smarter — or dumber.  "Even among the experts, the jury remains out on whether our rising reliance on the Internet and gadgets makes us smarter or less so."  
    U.S. stock futures jump after China data.   
    Retirement advice from active retirees.     
    Pimco’s El-Erian: Bonds are safer than stocks.    
    Why active bond funds beat indexing.  
    Back-of-the-envelope retirement planning.    
    Don’t get tempted by leveraged ETFs.    
    Two ways to play earnings.    
    Bill Gross is back.    
    How much will your nest egg pay out?.  "A new calculator helps people over 65 see how much income their savings will offer."  
    Hidden pitfalls when tempted by leverage.   "You know the market goes up over time. Why not take advantage with leverage?" 
    What Bear Traps Lie Ahead for Investors (video)?.    
    Higher costs seen in wake of Bangladesh tragedy"Two-thirds of respondents see higher apparel costs as ties with risky subcontractors are cut."  
    Auto nirvana: test driving the world's fastest car.    
    The cheapest--and most expensive--cars to drive.    
    Watch: This could return Apple to all-time highs.   
    El-Erian: Fed tapering will be for wrong reason.    
    The Secret Sauce in the July Jobs Report.  "Financial markets will grind to a halt on Friday as the Labor Department releases the July nonfarm payroll report." 
    ISM Surges in July, Taking DJIA and S&P 500 to All-Time Highs.    
    Larry Summers Will Be Obama’s Pick for Fed Chair: Neil Irwin.   
    Democratic fight over Yellen, Summers deeply rooted in history.     
    Student Loan Crisis Can’t Be Fixed Without Write-offs and Writedowns.. 
    Financial Advice That Is Popular -- and Wrong"Some financial advice is so oft-repeated that everyone takes it for granted. The problem is, a lot of it is bad advice."  
    America’s Most Feared Billionaires: Who Are They? How Do They Operate?.     
    How Many Americans Actually Have Full-Time Work?.    
    Main St., Wall St. could be on collision course.    
    Obama nominates Koskinen to head IRS.    
    U.S. closing embassies on Sunday.    
    8 high-tech jobs that don’t require a degree.    
    Retirees get a break on Medicare drug costs""Part D" premiums for prescription drugs are projected to rise only $1 a month in 2014; competition is holding prices down."  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
A Really, Really Bad Idea.   "Each of the past three days, I've stumbled into my office at around 5:00 am anxious to see if the futures had succumbed to some big, bad event overnight. Stocks have enjoyed a nice run of late and as such, have become overbought. Thus, the bear argument that the indices are currently ripe for a correction kept ringing in my ears. Although there have been issues with Chinese data, concerns about the Yen, and more data from across the pond than I can shake a stick at, each and every morning I was greeted with green screens in the wee hours. Each and every day ... Read More »"  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Ticks Higher.    
    Construction Spending Improves Pulled Back in June.    
    ISM Manufacturing Report Shows Sector Rebounding.    
    Markit PMI Improves in July.    
    Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 19,000.    
    Challenger: Planned Job Cuts Fall in July.    
    Eurozone Final PMI's Above Preliminary Readings.    
    China PMI Improves, Diverges From HSBC Data.    

    Market indices are up 0.1% tonight.


2013-7-31 (Wednesday): Stocks Close Mixed, but Post Best July Since 2010; FB Ends Below $38; Stocks fly high in July. The NASDAQ Composite gained 9.90 points (0.27%) to end at 3,626.37. The Dow fell 21.05 points (-0.14%) to end at 15,499.54; the S&P 500 slipped  0.23 points (-0.01%) to 1,685.73. Oil closed at 105.18::Oil has biggest gain in 3 weeks on Fed, US economy  Gold ended at 1,324: Gold gains ground in electronic trade after FOMC, The VIX incremented ).06 to 13.45.           
   "Stocks advanced in volatile trading on Wednesday, pushing the S&P 500 to within a few points of 1,700, after the Federal Reserve gave no hint that a reduction in the pace of its bond-buying program is imminent.".    
    "U.S. stocks wrapped up a buoyant July, with all three indexes gaining between 4% and 7%. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Fed Downgrades U.S. Economic Growth to Modest, Stays the Course"The Federal Reserve says the U.S. economy is growing modestly, a downgrade from its June assessment. The Fed expects growth will pick up in the second half of the year."  
    Mom, Pop May Be Ready to Jump Into Stocks, but Some Signs Flash Caution"The stock market is hovering near all-time highs, prompting more retail investors to finally accept its enticing invitation to jump in. Yet the average stock doesn’t appear poised to please today’s buyer over the next few years."  
    Market Top Is in, Brace for Correction: Jeff Saut.  
    Stocks Close Higher Despite Earnings Disappointments..    
    Slow growth aside, jobs data suggest improvement.      
    Watch: Economist says expect taper plans.    
    Obamacare scores breakthrough on exchanges.    
    Obama speech viewed by some as putting cash repatriation on table.    
    A counterpoint from the Trading Deck: Cash is a horrible investment.    
    Mortgage apps a worrying sign for housing market.  
  
    "The week of July 26 saw home-loan applications fall to their lowest level in two years."    
    Mortgage rates now a buyer stumbling block.    
    Treasury yields jump on positive data.    
    Consumers, businesses splash out in 2nd quarter.  "U.S. economy grows 1.7% in second quarter, aided by consumer spending and business investment."  
    Government recalculates GDP back to 1929.   
    2012 GDP revised upward in government data.     
    U.S. economy grows 1.7% in second quarter.    
    GDP Rises 1.7% as ‘Taylor Swift Effect’ Adds to Growth"The Bureau of Economic Analysis just re-wrote 83 years of economic history."    
    Private-sector job creation is stronger than expected.  "Private-sector employers add a stronger-than-forecast 200,000 jobs, says payroll firm ADP."  
    EU jobless rate falls for first time in 2 years.    
    Debate rages on over Keystone pipeline jobs.    
    What a $15 wage costs McDonald's.    
    How to translate Fed-speak.  "How amateur central-bank observers can become Fed whisperers."  
    Inside the when-will-the-Fed-taper debate.    
    Is Larry Summers Too Much of a Hothead to Be Fed Chair?.    
    Larry Summers hedges his QE doubts.  "Turn on the green light, Joey. The man wants a green suit."  
    It’s your money; here’s how to keep it.  "Investors have disengaged from their money and the professionals who handle it, writes Jonathan Burton. Solution: connecting with your financial life."  
    3 big trends to replace the BRICS.  "Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have had their day, writes Matthew Lynn." 
    Red flag in earnings-based valuations.    
    Ben, we hardly knew ya.   
    Why capitalism is morally bankrupt.  "Once a moral code for individuals and nations, capitalism has been degraded by the greedy and self-interested behavior of Wall Street, writes Paul B. Farrell."  
    Don’t miss the muni rally.    
    'Fire in Ice': New Energy Source Found in Arctic.    . 
    Pot Growers Alarm California Farmers.    
    5 Ways to Live Longer for Less"We all want to live our lives to the fullest. From limiting stress to eating more vegetables, here are several proven ways to live longer for less."   
    Will Your Congressman Retire Richer Than You?.    
    5 Financial Numbers You Should Know..    
    Frugal U.S. Families Focus on Cheaper Colleges..    
    3 Ways You Aren't Making the Most of Your 401(k)..    

    P/E ratios to drop 20% in coming years"We’re set to enter into a multidecade period of lower price-to-earnings ratios, says Mark Hulbert."  

    Why 50% of U.S. Workers Are Retirement Have-Nots..    

    Michael Casey's FX Horizons Blame Europe for the next bank failure.    

    Al Lewis Should insider trading be legal? Insiders say yes.    
    ECB likely to talk up recovery"Investors await European Central Bank's policy decision Thursday."  
    ECB’s Draghi can’t afford to sound all-clear yet.    
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
While We Wait: Let's Talk Strategy.   "With the market clearly waiting on the data, the Fed and Friday's jobs report, I've decided to spend my pixels this morning talking something that is dear to my heart - investing strategy. I've spent a fair amount of my 33-year career investigating, testing, and/or developing various investing strategies. As such it will suffice to say that I've explored a lot of ideas on the subject. And while this may not make me an expert on every strategy known to man, I do know a little something about a great many of them. As I have mentioned a time or twenty, I am a believer in utilizing a systems-driven approach to investing. To be sure, ... Read More »"  
   GDP: The State of Economic Growth Was Stronger Than Expected.  "The latest release of the GDP report was watched even more heavily than normal. First, traders are on edge as to how the economy's growth rate will effect the Fed's monetary stimulus... ... Read More »"  
    Chicago PMI Up in July But Below Expectations.    
    Investors Intelligence: Bearish Sentiment On the Rise.    
    ADP- Private Sector Job Growth.    

    Market indices are up 0.3% tonight.


2013-7-30 (Tuesday): S&P 500 Edges Up; Nasdaq Reaches 12-Year High; Stocks barely budge as investors wait for Fed. The NASDAQ Composite gained 17.33 points (0.48%) to end at 3,616.47. The Dow fell 1.38 points (-0.01%) to end at 15,520.59; the S&P 500 rose  0.63 points (0.04%) to 1,685.96. Oil closed at 103.08::Sept. oil down $1.47, or 1.4%, to end at $103.08  Gold ended at 1,325: Gold ends with a loss ahead of Fed, The VIX was unchanged at 13.39.           
   "Stocks ended mostly higher on Tuesday following gains in technology shares and stronger-than-expected earnings from Pfizer, but a selloff in the potash sector limited the advance.".    
    "U.S. stocks barely moved Tuesday, as investors cautiously awaited the latest from the Federal Reserve and Friday's monthly jobs report. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    What to Heed During This Fed, Jobs, Data-Focused Week"The second half of this week will be a crazy quilt of economic indicators — with an emphasis on crazy."  
    Inflation is rotten to the core.   "Regardless of what the Fed says, prices are rising, some obviously so." 
    College students discover they still need a PC, not an iPad.    
    U.S. consumer confidence dips in July.    
    European stocks gain after German, Spain data.    
    Dallas, Denver home prices above pre-crash record.  "U.S. home prices continued to accelerate in May, and five cities saw gains of 3% or more."  
    College students discover they need a PC, not iPad.      
    Another cheater wins on Wall Street.  "Prosecutors failure to charge Steven A. Cohen illustrates an inconvenient truth about Wall Street: Cheaters win, says David Weidner."  
    5 ways commuting will ruin your life.  "Around 2.2 million people in the U.S. have a daily commute of at least an hour to and from work. Here are 5 ways commuting may damage your financial, physical and even emotional health."  
    10 countries that spend the most on health care.  "The U.S. is No. 1. But spending more on health care doesn't always result in better health outcomes, as the rankings on life expectancy show."  
    Bad bets on real estate hurt Detroit pensions.  "Detroit's two main retirement funds lost more than $500 million on real-estate investments between 2008 and 2012." 
    U.S. dollar is setting up for a big move.   "U.S. dollar is now setting up for a very low-risk potential long trade, writes Avi Gilburt." 
    Taper-proof your retirement portfolio.  "Just hearing the word "taper" causes goose bumps for fixed-income investors. Here's how to safeguard your portfolio."
    The 'Pensioncare' dream of annuities for all.  
    Preparing for China bubbles to burst: Andy Xie.    
    Charting the break to less-charted territory.    
    What would Grumpy Cat short?.    . 
    Flexibility is the key for speculators.    
    Junk-bond fever builds.    
    10 things therapists won’t tell you.  "Person on couch isn’t only one with problems. Here's the scoop on your therapist." 
    Double your estate-tax break   "One provision of the federal law could save you a bundle in the right circumstances." 
    Arends: You too can raise a 'royal' baby.    
    Obama Proposes 'Grand Bargain' for Jobs, Corporate Tax Code.  "President Barack Obama is offering Republicans something they've wanted for a long time, a simpler corporate tax code, in exchange for more spending on programs to create jobs for the middle class."  
    Obama's Latest 'Grand Bargain' Proposal Isn't Much Of A Bargain At All.    
    Obama's Business Visits Move the Stock Market More Than the Economy.    
    'Night of the Living Fed' coming to Wall Street-  
    Copper theft 'like an epidemic' sweeping US.   
   
Chromecast Fever: Google Dongle Attracts Flurry of Interest From HBO, Hulu, Others..
"After consumers flocked to buy out the first batch of Google’s new Chromecast Internet television dongle, HBO, Hulu and others they are looking to follow."
    Fast Food Fight! Workers Protest for HUGE Minimum Wage Hike"A community action group is trying for the third time since November to more than double the minimum wage of workers."  
    Wall Street Has Nothing to Fear if It Plays By the Rules: Spitzer.  "Just three weeks after he announced his political comeback, Eliot Spitzer is leading the race for New York City Comptroller, and that’s got some people worried."  
    Eliot Spitzer: I Will Be an ‘Activist’ Comptroller 
    The Case Against a Larry Summers Fed.    
    Gold on the Rebound: Is the Bottom Finally In?.  
    Super Stimulus Program Is Best Hope to Save the Economy: Kuttner.  
    Obama-Summers Friendship at Heart of Next Fed Chair Chatter.         
    Debt Ceiling Is Like a Nuclear Weapon: Steve Forbes.     
    Yellen vs. Summers: Traders Placing Bets on Next Fed Chief.    

    4 Major Housing Recovery Myths Debunked  "With so much interest in where the housing market is going, there’s also lots of speculation — and misinformation. Here are 4 myths debunked."

    Stop Screwing Up Your Job Search In These Ten Ways..    
    Why We're Working Less Than Our Parents Did..    
    Copper & gold prices set to rise: Fund manager.    
    How to Get Out of Debt: The Real Secret"While there are many actions that you can take to get out of debt, there is only one overarching secret to it."  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Fun With Numbers - The New GDP Formula.   "In case the prior ten days didn't give you a clue, Monday's action made it clear (as in A Few Good Men "crystal" clear) that traders are playing a waiting game in front of this week's big, bad events. But to be fair, with the stock market having run up nearly 6 percent in the prior three weeks, I guess no one can really be blamed for wanting to take a wait-and-see stance in front of the GDP report (Wednesday before the open), the FOMC meeting and Bernanke press conference ... Read More »"  
    Consumer Confidence Pulls Back a Bit in July.    
    Case-Shiller Home Price Index Up Again in May.    
    Housing Update: Foreclosures Down 20% in June.    
    Early Analysis: Rebound in Asia Helping US Futures.    
    Housing Update: Pending Home Sales Pull Back, But....    

    Market indices are flat-to-slightly-lower tonight.


2013-7-29 (Monday): Wall Street drops ahead of Fed, data; Stocks fall despite flurry of deals. . The NASDAQ Composite subtracted 14.02 points (-0.39%) to end at 3,599.14. The Dow fell 36.86 points (-0.24%) to end at 15,521.97; the S&P 500 gave up 6.32 points (-0.37%) to 1,685.33. Oil closed at 104.52::Oil ends lower for a second straight session  Gold ended at 1,329: Gold closes higher ahead of Fed meeting this week, The VIX fell 0.67 to 13.39.           
   "U.S. stocks trade on a weak note after a decline in June home sales, as investors look ahead to key data later in the week and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.".    
    "Investors took a step back Monday ahead of several events later this week that could set the tone for the rest of the summer. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Gold recoups losses with ‘blowout’ week on tap.    
    Merger Monday: Look for more M&A in second half of year: analysts.    
    RetireMentors- The 10 ways Wall Street is playing you for a chump.    
    Roubini sees gold falling toward $1,000 by 2015.    
    Prince Alwaleed sees shale threat to Saudis.    
    China is a value play, not growth:- BlackRock.      
    Has the drop to S&P 1,500 begun?.  "We may see one more push higher before the decline, writes Avi Gilburt. "  
    Was Obama behind Summers leak?.  "Columnist says president mentioned Summers on background to a small group of the press."  
    Lunch of the day: Obama and Hillary Clinton.    
    Fed doves outforecast the hawks.  "Analysis of central-bank officials' comments on the economy finds vice chairwoman faring best." 
    Bernanke’s lame-duck status hits policy.    
    Obama on what he's looking for in Fed pick.  
    Summers as next Fed chief? Brace for swings.  
    Yellen or Summers? Who Would You Like As Fed Chair?.    
    Week's data: Jobs on upswing, GDP subpar.    
    Best retiree investment may be cash"Navigating a booming stock market and a jittery bond market? Best bet, for now, may be no bet."  . 
    More disgruntled docs leave Medicare"More than 9,500 physicians opted out of Medicare in 2012, more than twice as many as in '09; low payment rates are a big factor"  
    How to save money when you move.  "Despite a growing demand for movers, consumers can still save money when hauling their belongings from their current home to the next one."  
    Housing stocks slammed — time to buy or fold?.   
    How to avoid getting scammed by movers.    
    No, 80% of America is not in a struggle vs. poverty.  "Associated Press story on poverty is likely to hurt rather than help the poor, writes Steve Goldstein."  
    Investors punishing more ‘misses’.  "Wall Street is making companies pay more than is typical for recent profit and revenue misses."  
    Earnings surprises have been narrow ones.    
    Cody Willard says It's the Super Bowl of earnings.    
    Michael Gayed says Weak builders good for emerging markets  
    It’s time to collar the S&P.   
   
Industrialize Palestine; peace will follow.
    Detroit makes munis a bargain"Wrong time to abandon muni-bond funds, writes Chuck Jaffe."  
    Europe turning corner; it’s debt that matters.    
    Watch: Fund manager sees copper, gold rising 
    Are Stocks Heading for a 1987-Style Crash?.    
    BMW's new i3 battery car targets urbanites.  
    Billionaire: Climate for Entrepreneurs Better Than Ever as Long as You Do T ….        
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Thank You Mr. Draghi.   "It was a year ago Friday that ECB President "Super Mario" Draghi stopped the European Debt Crisis dead in its tracks. With one simple sentence, the crisis that had plagued both stock and bond markets around the globe for the past three years ended abruptly. Although the bears continue to hold fast to their belief that the crisis is far from over and will rear its ugly head again at any moment, the fear of an economic collapse in response to the Eurozone falling apart at the seams appears to have subsided. For three years, investors had been forced to hang on every comment, headline, and/or rumor that came out of a never ending string ... Read More »"  
    NAAIM Index: Manager Jump Back on Bull Train.  "Each week, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) asks member firms who are active money managers to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure to the ... Read More »"  
    Housing Update: Pending Home Sales Pull Back, But.    
    Top Stocks: Biotech Takes Over The Top Ranks.    
    The Week Ahead: Earnings, Fed, and Economic Data Deluge.    

    Market indices are a bit higher tonight.


2013-7-29 (Monday): Wall Street Dips on Caution Before Fed Debates Stimulus Policy; Stocks fall despite flurry of deals. . The NASDAQ Composite subtracted 14.02 points (-0.39%) to end at 3,599.14. The Dow fell 36.86 points (-0.24%) to end at 15,521.97; the S&P 500 gave up 6.32 points (-0.37%) to 1,685.33. Oil closed at 104.52::Oil ends lower for a second straight session  Gold ended at 1,329: Gold closes higher ahead of Fed meeting this week, The VIX fell 0.67 to 13.39.           
   "Stocks dipped on Monday as investors took a cautious stance before a Federal Reserve meeting this week that could signal when the Fed might begin to alter its stimulus plans.".    
    "Investors took a step back Monday ahead of several events later this week that could set the tone for the rest of the summer. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Gold recoups losses with ‘blowout’ week on tap.    
    Merger Monday: Look for more M&A in second half of year: analysts.    
    RetireMentors- The 10 ways Wall Street is playing you for a chump.    
    Roubini sees gold falling toward $1,000 by 2015.    
    Prince Alwaleed sees shale threat to Saudis.    
    China is a value play, not growth:- BlackRock.      
    Has the drop to S&P 1,500 begun?.  "We may see one more push higher before the decline, writes Avi Gilburt. "  
    Was Obama behind Summers leak?.  "Columnist says president mentioned Summers on background to a small group of the press."  
    Lunch of the day: Obama and Hillary Clinton.    
    Fed doves outforecast the hawks.  "Analysis of central-bank officials' comments on the economy finds vice chairwoman faring best." 
    Bernanke’s lame-duck status hits policy.    
    Obama on what he's looking for in Fed pick.  
    Summers as next Fed chief? Brace for swings.  
    Yellen or Summers? Who Would You Like As Fed Chair?.    
    Week's data: Jobs on upswing, GDP subpar.    
    Best retiree investment may be cash"Navigating a booming stock market and a jittery bond market? Best bet, for now, may be no bet."  . 
    More disgruntled docs leave Medicare"More than 9,500 physicians opted out of Medicare in 2012, more than twice as many as in '09; low payment rates are a big factor"  
    How to save money when you move.  "Despite a growing demand for movers, consumers can still save money when hauling their belongings from their current home to the next one."  
    Housing stocks slammed — time to buy or fold?.   
    How to avoid getting scammed by movers.    
    No, 80% of America is not in a struggle vs. poverty.  "Associated Press story on poverty is likely to hurt rather than help the poor, writes Steve Goldstein."  
    Investors punishing more ‘misses’.  "Wall Street is making companies pay more than is typical for recent profit and revenue misses."  
    Earnings surprises have been narrow ones.    
    Cody Willard says It's the Super Bowl of earnings.    
    Michael Gayed says Weak builders good for emerging markets  
    It’s time to collar the S&P.   
   
Industrialize Palestine; peace will follow.
    Detroit makes munis a bargain"Wrong time to abandon muni-bond funds, writes Chuck Jaffe."   
    Europe turning corner; it’s debt that matters.    
    Watch: Fund manager sees copper, gold rising 
    Are Stocks Heading for a 1987-Style Crash?.    
    BMW's new i3 battery car targets urbanites.  
    Billionaire: Climate for Entrepreneurs Better Than Ever as Long as You Do T ….        
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Thank You Mr. Draghi.   "It was a year ago Friday that ECB President "Super Mario" Draghi stopped the European Debt Crisis dead in its tracks. With one simple sentence, the crisis that had plagued both stock and bond markets around the globe for the past three years ended abruptly. Although the bears continue to hold fast to their belief that the crisis is far from over and will rear its ugly head again at any moment, the fear of an economic collapse in response to the Eurozone falling apart at the seams appears to have subsided. For three years, investors had been forced to hang on every comment, headline, and/or rumor that came out of a never ending string ... Read More »"  
    NAAIM Index: Manager Jump Back on Bull Train.  "Each week, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) asks member firms who are active money managers to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure to the ... Read More »"  
    Housing Update: Pending Home Sales Pull Back, But.    
    Top Stocks: Biotech Takes Over The Top Ranks.    
    The Week Ahead: Earnings, Fed, and Economic Data Deluge.    

    Market indices are slightly lower tonight.


2013-7-26 (Friday): Newscast: Stocks break even; confidence rises; Stocks claw back in final minutes. . The NASDAQ Composite added 7.98 points (0.22%) to end at 3,613.16. The Dow rose 3.32 points (0.02%) to end at 15,558.83; the S&P 500 climbed 1.40 points (0.08 %) to 1,691.65. Oil closed at 104.49::Oil down 0.8% on day, falls about 3% on week  Gold ended at 1,334: Gold futures fall, but score third weekly gain, The VIX fell 0.25 to 12.72.           
   "The coming week on Wall Street could be a summer blockbuster, with the marquee featuring a triple bill: the Fed, jobs and earnings. Of the three, the Federal Reserve has the most potential to upset the market. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted markets in late May by saying the U.S. central bank planned to ease back on its stimulus efforts once the economy improves.".    
    "Wall Street staged a comeback Friday: U.S. stocks inched higher in the final minutes of trading after being down sharply earlier in the day. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    No decision on new Fed chair until fall: reports.    
    Some Dems don't want Summers for Fed chief"Obama is reportedly leaning toward Larry Summers as the next Federal Reserve chairman, but he faces pushback from fellow Democrats."  
    Why the bond market hates Summers as next Fed chief.  "Fear of buying a topping market is logical response to stock surge, admits William Watts"  
    Summers consulting for Citigroup, Nasdaq: report.    
    Goldman's Blankfein: The worst will happen (sooner or later if you wait long enough).    
    Why silver might be a good buy at $20 an ounce.    
    Lack of selling suggests more upside ahead"The absence of major profit-taking this week is a good sign for overall equities and could be pointing to higher prices soon."  
    Consumer sentiment reaches six-year high.    
    How much pay are you worth?.  "Salary-comparison  websites can help you figure out what to expect, taking into account your location."  
    Holding back the economy.  "Here's proof that it's not uncertainty that's to blame.So where's the drag?"  
    S&P 500 will rise another 5% in 2013.  "J.P. Morgan strategists, including Thomas Lee, have raised their year-end price target for S&P 500, citing improving economic data from Europe."  
    Overweight? Good luck getting into grad school.  "Overweight graduate-school applicants receive fewer admission offers compared with their thinner counterparts, according to a study." 
    Want a marijuana prescription? Get in line"A reporter walks into a bar and  sees thousands of dollars swapped for bitcoins"  
    SEC goes after the ‘Bitcoin Bernie Madoff’.  
    A peek at New York's bitcoin scene.  "President speaks truth, with caveats, in defending Affordable Care Act."  
    McDonald’s CEO: Try living on a McBudget of $25,000"Al Lewis maps path past public-relations flap over burger giant's budget hints for workers"  
    The Abe trade is back
    Now may be worst time ever to retire"Interest rates are stuck at historically low levels, making it hard to generate income, and company pensions have disappeared."  
    4 ways women can prepare for retirement.    
    3 fixes for retirement investors on the edge.  "Retirement investors should know by now that trying to "figure it out" is just about the worst way to make money."  
    Europe shows signs of life as China struggles"Charts show a European economy on  the mend while China can’t get its gripping."   
    Europe stocks struggle; LVMH, Pearson higher.    
    Did Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ vow work?.    
    It’s time to stop listening to Bernanke.    
    Filmmaker: Detroit, the Future of America (video).    
    Military on the Rise in Japan (video)  
    SAC Is Going Down, but Does This Help Main Street?.  "Clients can't afford to be involved with a firm being charged with illegal conduct; outside money will leave SAC, writes Breakout's Jeff Macke. But does it matter?" 
   
Obama's Ho Chi Minh, Thomas Jefferson comments irk right-wingers.
    Is Social Security fair? Ask the Brady Bunch.    
    Earnings surprises running at second narrowest rate in 4 years- Factset.    
    Holograms, bio-sensors will change how you shop- Intel 
    The great wall of China worries is getting higher, BRIC by BRIC.    
    Detroit serves as warning for those expecting help.  "The bankruptcy filing is a rude awakening for those expecting a pension and other benefits when they retire, a reminder that it’s dangerous to entrust your financial future to others."  One city has gone bankrupt, and is threatening to reduce its pension benefits. Its retirees are petitioning the federal government to step in as the pension funder of last resort. I don't know how it will turn out, but I think this artice is grossly overstating the danger compared to the dangers of not being able to save enough. I think that a public pension is wonderful compared to no pension at all.
    Detroit retirees ask Obama for help.    
    Cody Willard points out What isn’t news, but should be..He observes what banalities are served up in the financial news to divert attention from real issues.    
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Conversations From The Halls.   "While it is probably a safe bet that there aren't more than a handful of readers who noticed that I've been M.I.A. the last few mornings, I feel obliged to explain my absence. In short, I had a surgical procedure at the end of last week to repair a herniated disc in my lower back and I greatly underestimated the recovery process. Although it was an outpatient procedure, I should have known better than to think I'd be bright and perky again on Monday morning. Especially given the combination of ... Read More »"  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Resumes Uptrend.    
    Weekly Jobless Claims Up 7K.    
    UofM Consumer Sentiment Perks Up In July.    
    Early Analysis- All About The Yen-.    

    The equity market indices continue to chug along upward. Right now, they're in a trading range from which they'll head up or down. In the meantime, J. P. Morgan is predicting a 5% gain by the end of the year.
    Unfortunately, there's no way to be sure what's going to happen between now and the end of the year.


2013-7-25 (Thursday): Stocks wring out small gains in choppy session; Tech stocks kept afloat by Facebook. . The NASDAQ Composite added 25.59 points (0.71%) to end at 3,605.19. The Dow rose 13.37 points (0.09%) to end at 15,555.61; the S&P 500 climbed 4.31 points (-0.26 %) to 1,690.25. Oil closed at 105.69::Oil futures end slightly higher after U.S. data  Gold ended at 1,331: Gold notches first gain in three sessions, The VIX fell 0.20 to 12.98.           
   "Stocks eked out small gains in volatile trading on Thursday, lifted by materials, as investors digested the a mixed round of corporate...".    
    "Tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq higher for the second day in a row Thursday, as the broader market wavered. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    Durable-goods orders point to revival.    
    Jobless claims signal steady labor market    
    Afraid of heights? Stock market surge isn’t scary.  "Fear of buying a topping market is logical response to stock surge, admits William Watts"  
    Larry Summers: Obama’s bad penny. "Summers is looking like a top candidate to replace Ben Bernanke as head of the Federal Reserve, writes David Weidner."   
    Stocks are priced to perfection"Here's the giveaway that the market is overvalued, and the best-case scenario already priced in."  
    Prosecutors: Nasdaq, others hacked in fraud.    
    China charges ex-Poliburo star with corruption.    
    50 years of secrecy for tax ideas.  "Lawmaker feedback on deductions and credits for tax-code redo will go into a time capsule for the next half-century."  
    Gen Y is missing link in realty rebound.  "Millions of young Americans are unemployed or underemployed, living with roommates or at home with Mom and Dad — instead of buying homes."  
    Home-builder stocks hit after orders updates.   
    3 Common money mistakes"The most common psychological problems associate with finances — and what you can do to avoid making mistakes."   
    Ignore your feelings, and obey the market.  
    Obama and health-law asterisks.  "President speaks truth, with caveats, in defending Affordable Care Act."  
    McDonald’s CEO: Try living on a McBudget of $25,000"Al Lewis maps path past public-relations flap over burger giant's budget hints for workers"  
    Starbucks and Danone team up on grocery-store yogurt parfaits
    Run your doctor visit like a board meeting"Treating your ever-briefer appointments like any business is one way to make the most of them."  
    Andy XIE advises that Gold will top $3,000 an ounce in five years.    
    3 fixes for retirement investors on the edge.  "Retirement investors should know by now that trying to "figure it out" is just about the worst way to make money."  
    Retirees resort to robbery to eat.    
    Detroit not alone; public pensions vulnerable.    
    Sustainable withdrawals vs. retirement duration.    
    Fee-killing no-load annuities are pro consumer.    
    A Second Bailout for GM and Chrysler"Fed policies are driving auto sales back toward pre-recession levels, even though unemployment remains high, credit is still scarce and many consumers are far more pinched than they were before the recession."   
    U.S. Charges Five in Biggest Credit Card Hacking Case.  "U.S. prosecutors have charged five foreign nationals with payment card theft resulting in more than $300 million in losses for companies in the U.S. and in Europe in what they described as the country's largest hacking fraud case in history."  
    Congress May Need Another Crisis to Get Something Done on the Economy.  "Yahoo! News' Chief Washington Correspondent, Olivier Knox, says Obama’s speech was largely symbolic and did not offer any new economic remedies." 
   
Here’s How to Ease Gas Price Pain for Good.
    Buffett Partner Munger Wrong; Energy Independence is Smart: Citigroup’s Morse.    
    .    
    Treasury battered as 10-year yield climbs near two-week high 
    Munger's ‘Mini- Berkshire’.  "Charlie Munger just might have a mini-me Berkshire Hathaway in a tiny company called Daily Journal Corp."  
    Treasurys' recent losses may be just the beginning.    
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Conversations From The Halls.   "While it is probably a safe bet that there aren't more than a handful of readers who noticed that I've been M.I.A. the last few mornings, I feel obliged to explain my absence. In short, I had a surgical procedure at the end of last week to repair a herniated disc in my lower back and I greatly underestimated the recovery process. Although it was an outpatient procedure, I should have known better than to think I'd be bright and perky again on Monday morning. Especially given the combination of ... Read More »"  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Holding Steady  "The latest data from Investor's Intelligence shows bullish sentiment pulled back a smidge. However, one of our favorite long-term market indicators remains on a buy signal at this time. When will it ... Read More »"
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Resumes Uptrend.    
    Weekly Jobless Claims Up 7K.    
    Orders For Durable Goods Up 4.2% in June.    
    Early Analysis: Technicals Blamed For Early Selling.    

    Market futures are up 0.1% tonight.


2013-7-24 (Wednesday): Wall Street Backs Off Record Highs, Apple Jumps; Apple keeps tech stocks afloat. . The NASDAQ Composite recouped 0.33 points (0.01%) to end at 3,579.60. The Dow declined 6.45 points (-0.16%) to end at 15,542.24.7; the S&P 500 fell 6.45 points (-0.38 %) to 1,685.94. Oil closed at 105.41::Oil futures mark lowest close in almost two weeks  Gold ended at 1,344: Gold futures climb in electronic trading, The VIX rose 0.52 to 13.18.           
   "The Dow was able to notch another record high Tuesday, but the broader market was mixed as investors weighed the latest corporate results against a weak regional manufacturing report. More".    
    "U.S. stocks mostly ended in the red Wednesday afternoon, but a tech stock rally fueled by Apple's better-than-expected earnings limited the losses. More"


Marketwatch says:     
    The shrill case against Larry Summer for Fed.    
    Detroit’s message: Factor in the worst-case scenario "Robert Powell says every "what if" should be on table for public-sector workers."   
    Why Generation Y is afraid of the stock market.  "Boomers reaped rewards of economic growth, but the outlook for millennials is of a nearly bankrupt nation, notes J.J. Zhang."  
    Ignore the hype: Earnings stink.  "Jeff Reeves says investors are willfully ignoring important signs."  
    Here comes the flood of hedge-fund ads.   "Jennifer Openshaw has tips on judging these higher-risk, higher-return opportunities."  
    What diverging monetary policies signal: Andy Xie.    
    Will your pension disappear?.  "After Detroit bankruptcy, state and local workers should rethink retirement savings."  
    Michael Ashbaugh on Charting a slow-motion rally to record territory.   
    Chuck Jaffe Investing strategies that will outlive us all.    
    Ignore your feelings, and obey the market.  
    Capitolist Climate Deniers.  "Take a test. Will you put short-term profits ahead of the long-term needs of our planet?"  
    How Japan could go to hyperinflation in a heartbeat"Planning, consensus and good luck are crucial."  I believe that there is no way the Japanese government is going to permit out-of-control inflation. Remember, they've been trying to escape from their deflationary trap for 20 years. And they aren't out of it yet.
    Permanent Link to The Death of High Inflation. Here is Paul Krugman's latest exasperated response to this zombie meme of the "printing of money" causing inflation. 
    Back in the 1970's, it became widely known that the Federal Reserve controlled the economy, lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy and fight unemployment, and raising inflation rates to slow the economy and fight inflation. It did this by raising and lowering the money supply. The investing public began to scrutinize every signal concerning the money supply. Expanding the money supply, it seemed, led to inflation. Or so we believed.
    Actually, it doesn't  It takes two conditions to tango. What causes inflation is a rising rate of flow of money through the economy, and that's equal to the volume of money (the money supply) multiplied by the velocity with which the money flows through the economy. From the end of World War II until 2008, you didn't have to worry about the velocity of money. If the money was there, you could count on it whipping through the economy. And that worked until 2003. 
    In 2003, the incumbent Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan,  in an effort to revive the country. We were warned that if this didn't work. the Federal Reserve would lose control of the economy.
    It worked. The economy slowly sputtered back to life.
    In 2008, the same challenge arose again, and this time, lowering the interest rate as low as it could go didn't work. For whatever good reasons (fear of default?), the velocity of money approached zero. Even with essentially-zero interest rates, even, with levels of M1 and M2 soaring, borrowing and money circulation fell to a trickle. Gradually, this has risen until lately, when anticipations of inflation caused an actual rise in inflation... a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Things are different now that they were during the interval between 1946 and 2008. Inflation during that era was sustained by wage-price spirals, as unemployment rates fell to the 4%-5% levels during boom times. Employees sought high wages to keep up with higher prices, and given the low levels of unemployment, they were able to enforce their demands.
    Today, with unemployment and underemployment still at unacceptably high levels, employees don't have that bargaining power.
    Apparently, some economists and financial writers can't get past this mindset that pumping up the money supply automatically causes inflation. We went through a brief inflationary wave a couple of years ago. It soon subsided. In the meantime, the U. S. economy is slowing again. Higher interest rates seem likely to me to slow home-buying. 
    Could I be wrong? Absolutely! But this is what I suspect, and what Paul Krugman continues to flog.
    But getting back to 2008, "when the music almost died", deficit hawks opposed fiscal stimulus. The Obama administration pushed through a fiscal stimulus bill that was only about ⅓ rd of what was needed for a full, adequate recovery. Nevertheless, the U. S. economy escaped the self-inflicted wounds of the Europeans, with their "bleed-the-sick" austerity programs. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve had again lowered interest rates to what Paul Krugman has termed "the zero lower bound", and later, as the economy began to falter again, Fed Chairman Bernanke improvised with "quantitative easing", followed by QE2 and QE3. 
    Now, inflationistas are once again beating the inflationary drum, and financial columnists are picking up the theme. 
    Of course, I'm absolutely no authority concerning any of these issues. But for what little it's worth, I'll stick with Paul Krugman's interpretations until proven otherwise.

    'The Latest Economic Message From Obama: Washington Won’t Help"Whatever slogan characterizes Obama’s latest economic plan, the real message is this: There’s nothing more Washington is likely to do to help struggling Americans."  
    Obama: Washington took its eye off economic ball.    
    America Becomes a Defeatist Nation.  "People in Spain, Greece, Russia and China are down on America. That’s not surprising. But Americans are down on America too, and the trend seems to be getting stronger."  
    Watch: States that spend the most on fast food.    
    Watch: Gartman says there's no gold conspiracy.    
    Google’s $35 Chromecast Puts the Internet on Your TV"Google has already given the world $300 phones and $200 tablets, but the latest new gizmo from the House of Android comes in at a cool $35."   
    Proceed With Caution; S&P 500 Needs to Take Out 1700.    
    Dissecting Obama's claims on health care"Much of what the president said in address regarding health-care overhaul is true, but caveats persist."   
    Senate OKs adjustible-rate student loans.  "The Senate approves a bill to tie rates on new federally subsidized student loans to the 10-year Treasury note, a move some Democrats oppose."  
    Obama Time to ‘turn page’ on Freddie, Fannie.   
   
Obama gives lesson in middle-out economics.
    Recap: Obama challenges GOP on economy.    
    Fed chairman race down to Yellen, Summers.    
    Treasury battered as 10-year yield climbs near two-week high 
    Munger's ‘Mini- Berkshire’.  "Charlie Munger just might have a mini-me Berkshire Hathaway in a tiny company called Daily Journal Corp."  
    Treasurys' recent losses may be just the beginning.    
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Cramerica Facing Hostile Takeover Bid from Upstart Private Equity Firm.   "ISeven-month old private equity firm Spear Point Buyout Group owns a two percent stake in Jim Cramer’s digital media company, TheStreet (NASDAQ: TST). Spear Point Buyout Group has announced that it will make a bid to take over the company, according to CNN Money. Spear Point also wants TheStreet to hire a financial advisor to explore options for the company, including a potential sale. According to CNN, Spear Point has declined to say how much it would be willing to pay for TheStreet. Silicon Bayou ... Read More »"  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Holding Steady  "The latest data from Investor's Intelligence shows bullish sentiment pulled back a smidge. However, one of our favorite long-term market indicators remains on a buy signal at this time. When will it ... Read More »"
    China's HSBC/Markit Flash PMI Falls To 11-Month Low"China's manufacturing sector may be the most important to global growth at the present time. As such, it isn't good news that the Flash PMI continued to contract and came in at an 11-month low ... Read More »"   
    Facebook Beats on Top and Bottom Lines, Shares Spike.    
    New Home Sales Hit 5-Year High in June.    
    Markit's Flash PMI Above Consensus in July.    
    Caterpillar Misses EPS, Cuts Outlook.    
    Boeing Report Beats on EPS and Revenue Estimates.    
    Architecture Billing Index Suggests Recovery Continues.    
    Apple Beats on Top and Bottom Lines, Led by iPhone Sales.    
Apple Beats on Top and Bottom Lines, Led by iPhone Sales

    Market futures are flat tonight.


2013-7-23 (Tuesday): U.S. stocks end mostly lower; Dow rises to record; Stocks waver near record highs. . The NASDAQ Composite recouped 21.12 points (-0.59%) to end at 3,579.27. The Dow incremented 22.19 points (0.14%) to end at 15,567.74; the S&P 500 fell 3.44 points (-0.19 %) to 1,692.39. Oil closed at 107.34::Oil ends higher on bets for U.S. supply decline  Gold ended at 1,344: Gold futures climb in electronic trading, The VIX dropped 0.37 to 12.66.           
   "The Dow was able to notch another record high Tuesday, but the broader market was mixed as investors weighed the latest corporate results against a weak regional manufacturing report. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Summers front-runner for Fed chairman: report.    
    How much is Bernanke worth?. "The end of QE will come, and with it, a drop in stock prices. The questions: how much?"   
    Goldman sees next Fed chief tapped in October.    
    'Walking Dead' market: Why the rally keeps going.    
    Why your index fund is failing a fundamental test    
    U.S. stocks lose gains on Richmond data.    
    Stagflation is the Fed’s worst nightmare.  "Inflation appears to be reviving due to the longstanding easy-money policy of the Federal Reserve, writes Irwin Kellner."  
    You vote on what Fed should fear.   
    For home prices, it’s 2005"The latest report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed increases in every region of the country"  
    U.S. housing market is not in a new bubble — not yet, anyway.  
    40 years of cellphones, from car phone to iPhone.    
    Lessons from Detroit’s bankruptcy"What happened in Detroit is about as simple as a song by Ted Nugent, writes David Weidner."  
    Meredith Whitney: Detroit not a 'one-off'"The banking analyst says Detroit will start a wave of municipal bankruptcies."  
    How to still deduct medical costs.  "Changes taking effect this year make it harder to cash in on health care-related tax breaks. Here’s how to still do it."  
    Why 50% of workers are retirement have-nots.  "Retirement crisis? More like a catastrophe for the 50% of U.S. workers who don’t participate in a savings plan at work."  
    A 99-year-old's voluntary working retirement.    
    Would lottery-linked retirement accounts work-.    
    Renaissance strikes American watchmaking"A new breed of U.S.-made wristwatches may have the Swiss on their heels once again. Will they respond as effectively as in 1876?"   
    Schaeuble euro charm offensive is defensive.    
    Just How Generous Are Detroit's Worker Pensions for Retirees?"Bankruptcy or not, Detroit's emergency manager, Kevyn Orr, says the city simply can't afford the pensions it has promised tens of thousands of retired and current city workers, many of whom are counting on the checks to make ends meet."   
    Economy on Solid Ground, but Risks Remain: Rosenberg.  "There’s a firmer floor under the U.S. economy now than there used to be, and downside risks, though still present, have diminished considerably, says Economist David Rosenberg."  
    It’s Not Everyone’s Time to Buy a Home.   
   
S&P 500 At Record High, Market 'Sort of Toppy': Rosenberg.
    Investors Add Bullish U.S. Bond Bets After Bernanke: Survey.    
    Postal Service Moving Away from at-Your-Door Delivery.    
    Take a climate-change memo.  "Want the liberal playbook on climate change? It's all wrapped up here."  
    China’s ‘Easy Money’ Gesture Raises Stocks, for Now.  "Chinese stocks rose the most today since July 11 after Chinese press reports indicated the government sees 7% growth as the bottom line it will tolerate for economic growth."  
    China committed to reforms, to take decisive steps - vice premier.   
    What is rich? Study takes a crack at it.    
    S&P heading toward 1,800: Strategist.    
    5 Insurance Policies You Don't Need.  "You can buy insurance that covers nearly any risk you can think of, but that doesn't mean it's a good deal"  
    Here are some tips to significantly lower your insurance costs.    
    Don’t Get Suckered Into a “Free” Credit Report.   
    Germany: Payment of Greek aid may be delayed .  
    For the rich, $5 million is the new $1 million"In survey, most people with $1 million in assets say they aren't wealthy. For retirees, how far does $1 million go?"  
    Five “Passé” Home Trends Make a Major Comeback "From shaker-style cabinets to subway tile, here are five features buyers are coveting and sellers are incorporating into their properties."    
    Why Boomers May Not Retire Like Their Parents   " The baby boom may end with a whimper. The expansive generation that first crowded public schools in the 1950s and elbowed its way into the labor force in the...".    
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Stealth Rallies For These Emerging Market ETFs.   "It may not be entirely safe to swim in emerging markets waters again, but it is clear ETFs tracking developing world economies are acting less bad. Following savage declines at the hands of tumbling currencies, slowing Chinese growth and investors' repudiation of developing world bonds, some emerging markets ETFs have bounced higher in recent weeks. Using the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO) as the benchmark as it is the largest emerging markets ETF by assets, that fund notched ... Read More »"  
    FHFA House Price Index Improves in May  
    UPS Deems Results Disappointing.    
    United Technologies Miss Revenue Target.    
    DuPont Shares Surge After Report.    
 
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2013-7-22 (Monday): S&P 500 Ends at Record; McDonald's Weighs on Dow; S&P 500 ekes out record close. . The NASDAQ Composite recouped 12.78 points (0.36%) to end at 3,600.39. The Dow declined 1.81 points (0.01%) to end at 15,545.55; the S&P 500 added 3.44 points (0.20%) to 1,695.53. Oil closed at 106.70::Oil settles below $107; Brent/WTI spread widens  Gold ended at 1,335: Is gold the mother of all short-squeezes?, The VIX dropped 0.25 to 12.29.       
    "The S&P 500 notched a third consecutive record closing high on Monday and major indexes mostly rose, though disappointing McDonald's earnings kept the Dow from making gains."    
   "Investors were taking a wait-and-see approach Monday as the corporate earnings season gets underway in earnest this week. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    .All roads lead to 1,500 on S&P   "Now that we have exceeded the May high, a move lower may be on its way, writes Avi Gilburt." 
    Rhythmic market suggests caution on new buys.    
    Stock market gains aren’t what they seem.    
    Commentary- Overbought market conditions are building up.    
    Suddenly mortgage rates emerge as stumbling block"Recent spike fuels fear low lending rates are gone for good, and widespread worry ensues."  
    U.S. housing market is not in a new bubble — not yet, anyway.  
    Home sales drop to 2nd-highest rate since ’09.    
    Gayed: Free money in stocks? Only until you're the last fool buying"Gayed says it's easy to get caught up in extrapolating the market's past into the future."   
    National activity index less negative in June.    
    Glaxo execs may have broken Chinese law.    
    UBS settles with U.S. mortgage regulator.    
    Ten-minute tweaks to save your retirement.    
    Force yourself to rebalance your portfolio"When stocks returned to record levels, investors breathed a sigh of relief. Chuck Jaffe says they should have been selling instead."   
    Six building blocks for Detroit's revival.  "Obscured by the prevailing gloom, Detroit has the essential elements of a turnaround. If built upon and wisely managed, it will experience the kind of renaissance that has made a retooled Pittsburgh so attractive and vibrant."  
    Detroit retirees brace for pension cuts.    
    Why Pimco sees the filing as ‘Sputnik moment.    
    Big earnings week: 157 S&P firms report.   
   
The mess in Detroit.
    Pay less for health care in retirement.    
    How to cut your family's elder-care bills.  "Among the biggest drains on retirement savings are the expenses associated with caring for an older family member – even before that person requires institutional care."  
    Take a climate-change memo.  "Want the liberal playbook on climate change? It's all wrapped up here."  
    Oil rally spurs ‘flash crash’ fears.  "As oil climbs more than 11% for month so far, analysts raise the alarm that oil market may be due for a sudden selloff."  
    Why the Fed should scale back QE now.   
    China’s interest-rate liberalization feint.    
    G-20 seeks to coordinate QE unwinding.    
    G-20: Growth before austerity.  "There's one factor at play in the housing market that, if amplified, could unseat the slow, steady recovery, says economist David Rosenberg."  
    You’re rich? We’ll take your word for it.  "As startups market themselves directly to investors, thanks to new SEC rules, investors only need to represent themselves as accredited."  
    Watch: 3 reasons why China could get worse.   
    Housing Recovery Will Continue At a Slower Pace Unless .  "There's one factor at play in the housing market that, if amplified, could unseat the slow, steady recovery, says economist David Rosenberg."  
    Wall Street is missing money (you may be too!).    
    Doctors still in the dark about Obamacare: poll.  
    Blame Ethanol for Spike in Gas Prices: Lutz.   
    After Detroit, Who's Next?.   
    Sell the Gold Rally: Munson .    
    Consumer Watchdog Agency Flexes Its Muscles.   
    After Detroit, Who's Next?.    
    Farnoosh answers readers’ questions about gift tax rules and saving for retirement when you have a pension. "Farnoosh answers readers’ questions about gift tax rules and saving for retirement when you have a pension."  
    Watch: Pain in the Motor City.    
    The Rise of the Young Buyer "A new generation is skipping the 'starter home' and betting heavily on high-end real estate."     
    Watch: Why the gold story has changed.   
    Investors moving out of housing:-here's why.      
    Stick With Stocks Until 10-Year Yield Tops 3%: Johnson.  "With stocks setting fresh record highs daily, and housing proving its ability to handle rising rates, when will increased borrowing costs really begin to take bite?"  .  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Earnings Season Goes Into Hyperdrive   "Earnings season picks up next week as many key companies across multiple industries report results for the last quarter. Also, the flash, or initial estimates, of manufacturing PMIs from key countries around the world will be in focus, especially those in China. Key Earnings In the coming weak, earnings from key tech companies Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) are expected. Apple Apple is expected to report third quarter EPS of $7.31 vs. $9.22 a year ago. Revenue is expected to rise slightly to $35.09 billion from $35.02 billion. Morgan Stanley is optimistic on the stock heading into earnings. The analyst team has an Overweight rating on the stock and a ... Read More"  
    NAAIM Index- Managers More Bullish.  "Each week, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) asks member firms who are active money managers to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure to the ... Read More »"
    Existing Home Sales Pull Back in June.    
    Chicago Fed National Activity Index Upticks in June.    
    McDonald's Report Cites Economic Uncertainty For Miss.    
 
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2013-7-19 (Friday): Dow, S&P 500 End at New Highs on Earnings, Fed; Dow, Dow, S&P 500 set for 4th winning week. . The NASDAQ Composite backslid 23.66 points (-0.66%) to end at 3,587.61. The Dow declined 5.04 points (-0.03%) to end at 15,543.51; the S&P 500 added 2.70 points (0.16%) to 1,692.07. Oil closed at 108.05::  Gold ended at 1,284: Gold closes higher to recoup some recent losses, The VIX dropped 0.95 to 12.82.       
    "The Dow and the S&P 500 ended at record closing highs on Thursday as Morgan Stanley and others reported better-than-expected earnings and Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments further reassured markets"    
   "The Dow and S&P 500 are set to wrap up a fourth straight week of wins, despite a losing Friday. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Best strategy for investing: Buy and hold wins again"If you think you will know it when this bull market finally comes to an end, you're kidding yourself, writes Mark Hulbert. A better strategy is to own a broad-market index fund through thick and thin."  
    Microsoft, Google and AMD lead technology sector’s retreat.  
    Poletti: Tech party over?.    
    Shinal: Google bet on YouTube pays at last.    
    Republicans Rand Paul and Ted Cruz hit Iowa.    
    Bernanke’s only partly right about gold.    
    Gold futures rise, ready for weekly gain.    
    10 signs your co-worker is a spy"World War II–era manual spells out giveaways that a co-worker, boss or employee is a government agent aiming to undermine your company. Brett Arends has details."   
    Five good reasons to keep on rooting for Detroit.  "Its bankruptcy filing put an exclamation point on its decades-long tailspin, but Michigan’s biggest city — and the U.S.’s fifth largest as recently as 1970 — has plenty going for it. Including these five things."  
    Detroit has gotten exactly what it deserved.   "The bankrupt city was its own worst enemy on the way to Chapter 9 (24/7 Wall St.)."
   
Detroit bankruptcy sparks debt battle 
    Part-time jobs aren’t only ones being created.   "Chicken Littles taking a pop at government policy are missing real job problem, writes Rex Nutting." 
    Plummeting labor force: Chart tells Detroit’s tale.  "Week in Charts shows the rapid decline of the job market as city was on path to bankruptcy."  
    An income portfolio that doesn't stink.    
    A portfolio for all seasons.  "Howard Gold asks: How about a low-risk portfolio that has returned 9% a year over the past 40 years?"  
    China rate liberalization gains support.   
    China to scrap rate controls"Central bank to scrap all controls on lending interest rates and let financial institutions set rates by themselves."  
    China starts probe into retail gold-price rigging.    
    Detroit Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better.  "Detroit filed for bankruptcy protection on Thursday and the Motor City’s debts and liabilities are estimated to be as high as $20 billion, making Detroit’s bankruptcy the largest in U.S. history."  
    G-20 to crack down on corporate tax dodgers.    
    EU honcho nudges IMF- Time for you to go.   
    G-20 looks for cushion against QE rollback.  "'The meeting of financial leaders will focus on safety nets for emerging markets, expected to get bumpy once the U.S. stimulus program unwinds"  
    Detroiters Respond With Mixed Emotions.    
    Detroit Bankruptcy Sets Up Creditor Battle.  
    Detroit bankruptcy filing came with only 5 minutes to spare.   
    Tear down chunks of Detroit: landowner.   
    Home Flippers Come Roaring Back"They went underground during the housing bust, but home flippers are now making a comeback. And this time, they may be helping the housing market recover instead of destabilizing it."   
    Dubai offers citizens gold to lose weight.   
    Emerging-markets courage.   "It's time to be brave with your portfolio allocation to emerging markets." 
    How Barclays jolted electric bills. "FERC says tradrs manipulated the energy market forcing up consumer costs."  
    Watch: Pain in the Motor City.    
    Ultimate buy-and-hold plan.  "This is simply the best long-term buy-and-hold strategy that I know"   
    General Electric Earnings Beat but Revenues Miss   
    Will your adviser retire before you do?.      
    Top 10: Mixed messages from corporate America.    .  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part III
   "After eight consecutive up days and green finishes seen in twelve of the last fourteen sessions, even the most ardent bulls will likely admit that a pause might be in order right about now. So, with Ben Bernanke ready to launch into in his semi-annual chat with Congress today and Thursday (btw, the Fed Chairman's written testimony to the House Financial Services Committee will be released at 8:30 am this morning), it appears that traders decided that a break in the joyride to the upside was indeed in order yesterday. ... Read More »"  
    Early Analysis: Tech Earnings Weigh
    General Electric Earnings Beat but Revenues Miss.    
 
    The market indices are at or above their annual trend lines. As a precautionary measure, I halved my exposure to stocks this week.


2013-7-18 (Thursday): Dow, S&P 500 End at New Highs on Earnings, Fed; Dow, S&P 500 at record highs, up 19% in 2013. . The NASDAQ Composite incremented 1.28 points (0.04%) to end at 3,611.28. The Dow advanced 78.02 points (0.50%) to end at 15,548.54; the S&P 500 added 8.46 points (0.50%) to 1,689.37. Oil closed at 108.02: Oil settles above $108 at highest in over a year:  Gold ended at 1,284: Gold closes higher to recoup some recent losses, The VIX dropped 0.64 to 13.78.       
    "The Dow and the S&P 500 ended at record closing highs on Thursday as Morgan Stanley and others reported better-than-expected earnings and Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments further reassured markets"    
   "Investors pushed the Dow and S&P 500 into record territory once again Thursday, as they welcomed a batch of strong earnings and a drop in jobless claims. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Key market indicator now generating a ‘sell’ signal"Indicator with a stellar long-term record is now in “sell” mode, writes Mark Hulbert."  
    Philly Fed’s manufacturing gauge is double forecast.    
    New claims for jobless benefits are the fewest since May.    
    Bernanke: Too early for tapering call.  "No decision on curtailing asset purchases at September meeting, Fed chief tells senators."  
    Fed: An Anti-Yellen whisper campaign?.    
    German minister praises Greek budget moves.    
    Asia slowdown hits SAP"Asia-Pacific spending dragged on by China’s economy, says software maker’s CEO."   
    Retiree fitness tips from Japan.  "Elizabeth O’Brien delves into retirement in Japan, where they've found staying fit can help protect wealth. "  
    What U.S. rebound can teach China.   "The resurgence of the U.S. economy from the doldrums of three years ago holds lessons for China (Caixin)." 
    China easing censorship of some movies.    
    Tesla’s Musk has a dream: S.F. to L.A. in 30 minutes.  "Tesla CEO’s new idea, writes Carol Kopp, would sound like a sci-fi movie if it were anyone else’s: A transport that would take riders from L.A. to San Francisco in 30 minutes."  
    The triple whammy to your wealth.    
    Confused consumers may kill recovery.  "Conflicting data and weak spending numbers hint at a serious risk for stocks and the economy, writes Jeff Reeves."  
    1998, where are you?.   
    Only Thing Fed Will Taper This Year Is Its Growth Forecas:- Economist"'The Fed is watching the data very closely,' says Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, and the data are shaping up to show 'slower growth in the second quarter -- much slower than the FOMC anticipated.'"  
    Newman: Why I’m Draining My Savings to Stimulate the Economy"Senior columnist Rick Newman turned his savings into spending, rung up thousands of dollars’ worth of purchases on credit cards and in the process paid a lot more in taxes. And he says he's not about to stop. Here's why."  
    Actually, Bernanke Has Done a “Phenomenal Job”: Jack Rivkin.  "“It’s very easy to criticize if you’re not the one having to pull the trigger [but] I think Bernanke’s done a fairly phenomenal job,” says Jack Rivkin, former CIO of Neuberger Berman."  
    Gold ticks up, Fed keeps up pressure with stimulus view.    
    My Personal Crusade to Stimulate the Economy.   
    New Glass-Steagall Needed to Protect Main Street From Wall Street: Ritholtz.  "'You can't stop fraud, but you can make the penalties so severe that most people won't engage in it,' says Barry Ritholtz, the CEO of Fusion IQ and author of Bailout Nation."  
    Check workers' citizenship? 'Pain in the neck'.    
    Watch: Three secrets to retiring rich.  
    Does It Matter That Americans Are Subsidizing Astronomical CEO Pay?"Calls to close a tax loophole on executive compensation are gaining attention, but would they make any difference?" 
    China Tipped to Surpass U.S. as Top Superpower.   
    Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65%"Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker’s bull market of 1928 is repeating, writes Paul Farrell."   
    Short Bonds: It’s Best Trade in Market Right Now, Says Hoenig.   
    Jobless Claims Fall Sharply, Could Point to Strong Hiring.    
    New Regulatory Environment Hurting Housing, Jobs..    
    Barclays fined $435 mln over energy prices.    
    Ultimate buy-and-hold plan.  "This is simply the best long-term buy-and-hold strategy that I know"   
    Big Drop in Housing Starts Suggests a More Shaky Recovery: Economist.    
    We’ll soon get 6 cable bills, and miss the good ol’ days.      
    Bullish Laszlo Birinyi blasts 'Shiller P/E' ratio.    
    Moody's Changes Outlook on U.S. Credit Rating to 'Stable' From 'Negative'   "Moody's Investors Service on Thursday stood down from the possibility of cutting the U.S. sovereign credit rating in coming months, affirming the country's top Aaa rating and noting the resilience of the economy."
    The best way to triple your money is...housing?.    
    China Ain’t All That: The U.S. Is Still Tops.    
    Europe: It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Any Better..    
    Bernanke Sees Need for Backstop for U.S. Mortgage Market.  .  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part III
   "After eight consecutive up days and green finishes seen in twelve of the last fourteen sessions, even the most ardent bulls will likely admit that a pause might be in order right about now. So, with Ben Bernanke ready to launch into in his semi-annual chat with Congress today and Thursday (btw, the Fed Chairman's written testimony to the House Financial Services Committee will be released at 8:30 am this morning), it appears that traders decided that a break in the joyride to the upside was indeed in order yesterday. ... Read More »"  
    Bernanke Says Fed Must Remain Flexible In Plans.  "All eyes were on Ben Bernanke this morning as he presented his semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. In short, traders were treated to a dovish Fed Chairman who said that ... Read More »"
    LEI Flat in June  
    Philly Fed Business Outlook Index Jumps Again in July.   
    Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 24,000    
    Early Analysis:- Bernanke Part Deux, Earniangs in Focus.    
    American Express Misses on Revenues.    
    IBM Earnings Beat Estimates, Raises Guidance.    
    Intel Earnings Report Uninspiring.    
 
    Market indices are down 0.2% tonight.


2013-7-17 (Wednesday): Stocks Edge Up as Bernanke Reassures on Stimulus; Stocks: Bernanke takes center stage. . The NASDAQ Composite regained 11.50 points (0.32%) to end at 3,610.00. The Dow advanced 18.67 points (0.12%) to end at 15,470.52; the S&P 500 added 4.65 points (0.28%) to 1,680.91. Oil closed at 106.58: Oil futures slip a bit more after Beige Book:  Gold ended at 1,276: Gold prices end lower after failed run at $1,300, The VIX dropped 0.64 to 13.78.       
    "Stocks edged higher on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the timeline for winding down the U.S. central bank's stimulus program was not set in stone."    
   "U.S. stocks held modest gains Wednesday as Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's nuanced message on Capitol Hill sunk in on Wall Street. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Key market indicator now generating a ‘sell’ signal"Indicator with a stellar long-term record is now in “sell” mode, writes Mark Hulbert."  
    Fed: Growth Improves Moderately Throughout U.S"A Federal Reserve survey says the U.S. economy grew in most parts of the country from late May through early July, bolstered by the housing recovery, consumers and more factory output."  
    Wall St gains after Fed chief cites flexible policy.    
    U.S. stocks up as Bernanke reiterates flexibility.    
    No uninsured surge with ‘Obamacare’ delay: study.    
    Analyst’s ‘Obamacare’ winners: hospitals, pharma, device firms.    
    Grades are now in for Medicare reform project Accountable Care.    
    House Republicans’ latest whack at Affordable Care Act: delays.    
    Home construction slowest in almost a year.    
    Paulson: Long-term case for owning gold.    
    Tesla’s Musk has a dream: S.F. to L.A. in 30 minutes.  "ITesla CEO's new idea, writes Carol Kopp, would sound like a sci-fi movie if it were anyone else's."  
    Treasury's Lew: Must put end to 'too big to fail'.    
    Bernanke: Tapering is not on a ‘preset’ path.  "Retirees flock to Costa Rica, where they find great weather, good health care and natural beauty in one of Latin America’s safest places."  
    Beige Book finds ‘modest to moderate’ growth.   
    Fed- Growth Improves Moderately Throughout U.S"A Federal Reserve survey says the U.S. economy grew in most parts of the country from late May through early July, bolstered by the housing recovery, consumers and more factory output."  
    Bernanke: Markets Beginning to Understand the Message"The Fed Chairman said the central bank anticipates beginning tapering bond purchases later this year but that policy will remain accommodative."  
    How Likely Are You To Trade on Bernanke Comments?.    
    Semiannual Bernanke visits bat .800 for stocks.    
    Bernanke says actions help Main Street.   
    BOE unanimous in keeping 'QE' unchanged.    
    EU honcho nudges IMF: Troika time is past.    
    China's Lou: Big fiscal stimulus unlikely in 2013.  
    How Japan's 'Abenomics' could create crisis.   
    Gold’s true foe is digital, and bitcoin is its name.  "The key, long-term threat to gold as an investment will be the rise of alternative digital currencies such as bitcoin, writes Matthew Lynn."  
    Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65%"Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker’s bull market of 1928 is repeating, writes Paul Farrell."   
    Best job-search apps for boomer candidates.   "Andrea Coombes's roundup of mobile software that aids job seekers." 
    Gold, silver and bonds: Range trade them.    
    Where’s the money? Small caps.    
    Barclays fined $435 mln over energy prices.    
    Ultimate buy-and-hold plan.  "This is simply the best long-term buy-and-hold strategy that I know"   
    Big Drop in Housing Starts Suggests a More Shaky Recovery: Economist.  "A Federal Reserve survey says the U.S. economy grew in most parts of the country from late May through early July, bolstered by the housing recovery, consumers and more factory output."  
    Whalen: 'We Went Way Too Far With Dodd-Frank'.    
    A Mystery Behind the Rise of Student Debt.    "The wild growth of student debt seems like an illness with an obvious cause. Both enrollment and tuition prices went on a tear over the past two decades. But there is more to it than that."  
    Whalen: 'We Went Way Too Far With Dodd-Frank'.    
    No One Is Too Big to Jail, Wall Street Cop Says,    
    Here Comes Google TV.    
    Millennials Will Carry Markets, Economy to Next Level: Hays.    
    Costs Your Parents Never Had to Worry About..    
    Daily Habits of Wealthy People.  "If you think becoming rich is about luck, think again. It may have more to do with how you spend your day, beginning with the hour you wake up."
    Are Your Home Upgrades Money Down the Drain?.    
    Watch: How climate change affects energy costs.    
    Homebuilder Confidence, Sales Outlook Soar.    
    Sen. King: 'Now’s the Time' to Roll Back Student Loan Rates..    .    
    There appears to be a single industry that is behind the significant change in the average wages"There appears to be a single industry that is behind the significant change in the average wages."       
    Home price gains not enough for a 'bubble' say economists.      
    When loot falls in your lap.  Here's what you need to know when you come into an unexpected sum of money.  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part III
   "After eight consecutive up days and green finishes seen in twelve of the last fourteen sessions, even the most ardent bulls will likely admit that a pause might be in order right about now. So, with Ben Bernanke ready to launch into in his semi-annual chat with Congress today and Thursday (btw, the Fed Chairman's written testimony to the House Financial Services Committee will be released at 8:30 am this morning), it appears that traders decided that a break in the joyride to the upside was indeed in order yesterday. ... Read More »"  
    Bernanke Says Fed Must Remain Flexible In Plans.  "All eyes were on Ben Bernanke this morning as he presented his semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. In short, traders were treated to a dovish Fed Chairman who said that ... Read More »"
    Intel Earnings Report Uninspiring  
    Housing Starts/Building Permits Pull Back in June.   
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment On The Rise.    
 
    Market indices are down 0.15% tonight.


2013-7-16 (Tuesday): Wall Street Slips Amid Fed Caution; Commodity Shares, Utilities Weigh; S&P 500 slips from record, breaks 8-day win streak. . The NASDAQ Composite lost 8.99 points (-0.25%) to end at 3,598.50. The Dow declined 32.41 points (-0.21%) to end at 15,451.85; the S&P 500 dropped 6.24 points (-0.37%) to 1,676.26. Oil closed at 105.78:Oil sticks close to $106 after API supply data:  Gold ended at 1,290: Gold ends at three-week high with Fed in view, The VIX jumped 0.63 to 14.42.       
    "Stocks slipped on Tuesday as investor caution took hold a day before the Federal Reserve chairman's congressional testimony, while losses in commodity shares and utilities weighed on major indexes."    
   "U.S. stocks fell modestly Tuesday as investors considered a batch of mixed corporate results. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    U.S. consumer prices jump in June.    
    Gas heads for $5 in California.    
    Consumer defaults hit post-recession low.    
    Builder confidence hits 7-year high.    
    Mark Hulbert The S&P 500 will be at 1,640 at year’s end.    
    Miahael ashbaugh presentsd: The Technical Indicator Charting a strong third-quarter start.    
    Winning hedge funds for 2013.  "It's been a tough half-year for hedge funds, but here's a look at who's best positioned to end the year on top."  
    Retire here, not there: Ecuador.    
    Retire here, not there: Costa Rica’s ‘pura vida’.  "Retirees flock to Costa Rica, where they find great weather, good health care and natural beauty in one of Latin America’s safest places."  
    Why gold shorting could lead to rally"Large speculators including hedge funds have recently raised short bets on gold. Here's why they may have set the foundation for a rally.’"  
    The doctor won’t take your call.  "You are your doctor's biggest headache. You're calling too much."  
    Obamacare and factory employment.   
    ‘Nothing not to like’ in Goldman results.   "Profit doubles, and Oppenheimer analyst summarizes: Everything was better than expected." 
    Four big questions for Bernanke.  "Fed chairman heads to Capitol Hill Wednesday and Thursday. And the market will be watching."  
    Getting more bang from the buck.  "Dollar's fed-fueled rise is anything but a one-way bet, writes Irwin Kellner."
    A taxpayer, and tax pro, guide.   
    More ways to earn tax-free income.  "Opportunities to collect tax-free income are more valuable than ever."  
    Expected U.S. tech layoffs soar"Layoffs announced by U.S. tech employers more than double in second quarter."   
    Stocks are in a groove ahead of Big Ben.    
    Time to readjust expectations for S&P.    
    Vanguard: When advisers add value.  "Advisers may not be the buggy whips of financial planning as many think."  
    Long-term-care planning too vital to ignore.    
    Free ‘Fabulous Fab,’ bring Wall St. to justice.     
    Shopping for the safest flights available.    
    Beyond Disney World: 8 great family getaways.    
    .How to save at Disney theme parks    "Yes, you can avoid the pinch of 2013's price increases. Here's how."  
    Inflation shows signs of stability after downward drift.    
    Oil down slightly; gasoline highest since June 10.    
    Watch: Why retail stocks may not be the right buy.    
    A New Reason Not to Work..    
    The Trade: Sell Goldman Sachs.    
    Financial Advisers Warn Bond Clients to Brace for Losses.  
    Nasdaq Community Forums Hacked, Passwords Compromised.    
    Stop Trading Off Bernanke Taper Talk, Says Karabell.    
    Homebuilder Confidence, Sales Outlook Soar.    
    Sen. King: 'Now’s the Time' to Roll Back Student Loan Rates..    .    
    There appears to be a single industry that is behind the significant change in the average wages"There appears to be a single industry that is behind the significant change in the average wages."       
    Home price gains not enough for a 'bubble' say economists.      
    When loot falls in your lap.  Here's what you need to know when you come into an unexpected sum of money.  
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    IThe Great (Valuation) Debate - Part II
   "With the stock market indices clearly in an uptrend at the present time (although a pullback in the near-term would surprise no one), this appears to be a good time to continue our look at the various valuation metrics. This morning, we will take a look at the Price-to-Dividend Ratio from three different perspectives. One of the reasons that many analysts prefer to look at P/D ratios over P/E ratios ... Read More »"  
    Yahoo! Beats EPS Estimates But Light on Revenue.  
    NAHB Homebuilder Confidence Ticks Higher in July  
    CPI: Inflation Hotter Than Expected in June.   
    Early Analysis: All Eyes on Earnings.    
    Johnson & Johnson Reports Strong Results.     
.   Goldman Sachs Report Buries Estimates.     
    Coca-Cola Results Below Expectations    
 
    Market indices are very slightly higher tonight.


2013-7-15 (Monday): Wall Street Rises to New Record Highs; S&P 500 Up for Eighth Day; Stocks rise in mid-day trading. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 7.41 points (0.21%) to end at 3,607.49. The Dow increased 19.96 points (0.13%) to end at 15,484.26; the S&P 500 added 2.31 points (0.14%) to 1,682.50. Oil closed at 106.46: Oil futures close back above $106 a barrel:  Gold ended at 1,283: Gold futures log fifth session gain in six, The VIX dropped 0.05 to 13.79.       
    "Solid results from Citigroup helped the S&P 500 end higher for an eighth straight day, the longest such streak since mid-January, though weak retail sales figures limited the gains."    
   "U.S. stocks managed modest gains Monday after solid earnings from Citigroup, but the rise was tempered by a weak report on retail sales. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Another day, another record close"U.S. stocks tally modest gains, with the S&P 500 extending its win streak into an eighth session, after Citigroup earnings exceed estimates."  
    Will Tuesday's inflation read impact the Fed?.    
    Stocks Post Modest Gains Sending Dow, S&P 500 to New Closing Highs.    
    U.S. is dangerously close to economic contraction.  "Consumers are growing more cautious, which could trip up the recovery, says Rex Nutting."  
    B. of A. Merrill raises 2013 target for S&P 500.    
    The doviest Fed doves, and hawkiest hawks"Fund firm takes on the task of placing Fed voters on dove-to-hawk monetary-policy spectrum."  
    Fed's Tarullo opposes Glass-Steagall return.    
    Bookie makes Yellen favorite for Bernanke job.    
    Retail sales fueled by cars, gas.  "Home improvement and department stores suffer as car and gasoline sales fuel small rise."  
    Weak Retail Sales Mean Fed Tapering Later vs. Sooner"Weaker than anticipated U.S. retail sales in June raise new questions about the strength of the U.S. economy, the health of consumers and the timing of any Federal Reserve ‘tapering.’"  
    Modest rise in retail sales offers cautionary economic note.    
    Empire State index accelerates in July.   
    Bernanke may steal show from earnings.    
    China’s GDP slows — as forecast.    
    Craig Stephen: China is facing growth dilemma.  
    ‘Abenomics’ isn’t doing enough to fix Japan.   
    Gold is a popping bubble, too.  "Gold's bubble will continue to deflate, writes Jeff Reeves."  
    We’re all wrong about the bull market .    
    The long-cash squeeze.    
    Hiatus on the way to Asian century.    
    Don’t Worry About Robots Stealing Jobs—It's Happened for Centuries: Blodget.  "With the U.S. unemployment rate at a still agonizing and unacceptable 7%+, Americans are understandably concerned about anything that might cause an additional loss of jobs."  
    History shows gold could fall another $500.    
    Bob Doll: Only earnings can keep rally going.     
    Income Growth Is a Bigger Threat Than Rising Rates: Cummins.    
    Glass-Steagall II: If It’s Not Fixed, Break It.    
    How a China Slowdown Will Benefit the U.S.    "China's second quarter GDP numbers came in at 7.5%. That's just in-line with average forecasts but slower than the previous quarter's 7.7% growth."  
    Don’t Downplay the Risks in China’s Banking System.    
    China’s Rebalancing Act: Will It Work?.    
    IMF: Emerging Markets Greatest Global Risk (WSJ.com: Live).    
    Consumer prices may see a jump.    
    ‘Nuclear option’ off table in the Senate?.    
    Why higher Treasury rates can’t last.  "Economist says recent moves toward higher yields are not sustainable."
    Cody Willard warns Prepare for the next crash right now.  "Amid the euphoria over market gains, Cody Willard is trimming his shorts and urges his readers to do likewise."  
    Smartphone cameras won’t kill SLRs"Point-and-shoots may be headed for history's dustbin, but sales of higher-end SLRs are up."  
    Time is not up for the wristwatch.  "Here's why Rolex isn't concerned about the development of an Apple iWatch."  
    Corporate America, meet Corporate Africa"The private sector has become a vital force in the development of Africa. And that’s the right approach, writes Rhonda Zygocki."   
    FTSE 100 climbs to six-week high.    
    Bove: The case against Goldman is a joke         
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part I
   "You may have noticed that in our global macro series, I did not spend much time on the issue of valuation for the U.S. stock market. This is due to the fact that valuation, like beauty, lies in the eyes of the beholder. You see, if you want to start an argument in a room full of money managers, bringing up the question of whether stocks are overvalued, fairly valued or undervalued will surely do the trick. To make my point, I thought I'd run through a series of valuation indicators this week, including three separate views of the Price-to-Earnings ratio, two approaches to the ... Read More »"  
    China's GDP Growth Rate In Line With Expectations"The much anticipated GDP report from the world's second biggest economy came in at a level that was largely in line with analysts expectations. However, Retail Sales were reported stronger than ... Read More "  
    A New Super Bowl Indicator? (If So, Look Out Below!)"Guest columnist Curtis Bergquist (who is a reformed bear these days) came across an indicator recently that could pose problems for the bull case... ... Read More »"  
    Empire Manufacturing Index Improves in July  
    Retail Sales Disappoint in June.   
    Citi Beats on Top and Bottom Lines.     
.   Early Analysis: China, US Data in Focus.     
    The Week Ahead: Earnings and Bernake On Tap    
 
    Market indices are very slightly lower tonight.


2013-7-12 (Friday): Stock price drop takes glow off U.S. consumer sentiment; Stocks close at records, Boeing sinks. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 21.78 points (0.61%) to end at 3,600.08. The Dow crept up 3.38 points (0.02%) to end at 15,484.30; the S&P 500 added 5.17 points (0.31%) to 1,680.19. Oil closed at 106.06: Oil futures mark third straight weekly climb:  Gold ended at 1,283: Gold logs biggest weekly percent gain since 2011, The VIX was unchanged at 13.94.       
    "Worries about rising interest rates and falling stock prices dinged U.S. consumer sentiment in early July, while other data showed a firm rise in wholesale prices, which could make the Federal Reserve ..."    
   "U.S. stocks inched slightly higher Friday, but the slim gains were enough to send the Dow and S&P 500 to new record closing highs and the Nasdaq to the highest level in over a decade. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Jump in gas fuels big leap in wholesale prices.    
    Consumer sentiment declines in July.    
    Consumer Sentiment Slips"Consumer sentiment waned slightly in early July, as optimism about current economic conditions was offset by a decline in confidence over the recovery's prospects, a survey released Friday showed."  
    Gold slips, but set for first weekly rise in four.    
    Gold looks vulnerable as it asks: ‘Ben, do you still love me?’.    
    Where will expected tech profits come from?.  "John Shinal notes Nasdaq has leapt this year despite weak company results."  
    This Currency Play Is Causing a Quiet Storm.   
    Europe stocks rise for fifth straight day.    
    Worry about rates a tempest in a teapot.    
    Higher rates can help banks"Fears of rising rates’ impact on banks are a short-term reaction to what will be a long-term benefit, writes David Weidner."  
    JPM's Dimon: Rising Rates Won't Hurt Our Business"JP Morgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC that the company can do well even in a rising interest rate environment, despite what that may do to mortgage rates."  
    J.P. Morgan's Dimon pessimistic on mortgages.    
    Bankers Beware! This Chart Says It All .    
    Watch: Why Banks Could Be in Trouble.    
    Bank Lobbyists Gearing Up to Take Down New Glass-Steagall Bill.    
    Even Goldman retreats from emerging markets.  "After spending more than a decade building up BRICS, Goldman Sachs is now tearing them down, notes Howard Gold."  
    What Really Went Wrong for Investors in Emerging Markets"Emerging markets' domestic problems were glossed over when the rising tide of global liquidity was lifting all at once, says 'Breakout Nations' author Ruchir Sharma. Now that the tide is running out, the picture is more complicated."  
    How the market’s mood can make you money.  "Knowing how investors and Wall Street professionals view the market can provide crucial buy or sell signals, writes Jonathan Burton."   
    More to oil above $100 than Egypt.   "What you didn't know about the factors pushing up crude prices more than 10% this year." 
    Why fracking can’t keep oil down.    
    The looming threat to the housing recovery.  "Have the financial markets been taking too many painkillers, asks Brett Arends"  
    Nutting: Has Fed killed housing?.    
    Are Banks and Housing About to Get Crushed by Rising Rates?. "Is a short-term repulsion to rising mortgage rates the start of something bigger or simply an understandable reaction to a volatile market?"   
    The Great Rotation cometh"A massive exodus out of bonds and into stocks is happening now, so expect sobering June broker statements."  
    Obamacare may bite into dental health.  "The Affordable Care Act literally has no teeth. Dental coverage was all but ignored in the sweeping health-care overhaul."  
    A few leaders decide to step forward.  
    Europe falls short in banking fix    
    High-Frequency Trading Is Making a Joke of the Markets"High-frequency trading causes significant market disruptions on a daily basis and destroys investor confidence, writes Jon Najarian, co-founder of optionMONSTER."  
    Want to buy a mortgage? Or a million?.  "Without government guarantees, mortgages would almost certainly be more expensive. Those higher rates will slow the nascent housing recovery."  
    Producer prices rise, give positive economic signal.    
    The market’s mood can make you money.    
    Where to retire abroad on $1,250 a month"For those looking to stretch savings by retiring abroad, here's are six of the cheapest cities."  
    Will the real Bernanke please stand up?"Markets could get whipsawed next week as Bernanke reflects a central bank deeply at odds."  
    High interest rates will hurt the car makers.    
    Pimco ETF is hemorrhaging cash.    
    .   
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Lesson Learned: Price Cannot Deviate From Itself
   "Let's be honest; there are times when figuring out Ms. Market's game can be more than a little challenging. And in my humble opinion, this is one of those times. One minute tapering is a huge problem and interest rates are spiking. However, twelve days and 800 Dow points later, and despite the fact that rates are still sky high, apparently neither are a major concern. Oh and here's a good one; is good economic news good or bad for ... Read More »"  
    UofM Consumer Sentiment Mixed Bag in July  
    PPI Report Hotter Than Expectations in June.   
    Wells Fargo Report Above Consensus.     
.   JPMorgan Chase Beats EPS and Revenue Estimates.     
    Early Analysis: Bank Earnings In Focus.    
 
    The markets are due for a bi-monthly downturn at any time. Of course, if the Great Rotation out of bonds and into stocks is underway, it will be harder to nail down turning points.


2013-7-11 (Thursday): Bernanke's reassurance propels shares to record highs; Stocks back at record highs. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 57.54 points (1.63%) to end at 3,578.30. The Dow leaped 8.68 points (1.11%) to end at 15,450.99; the S&P 500 added 22.41 points (1.36%) to 1,675.03. Oil closed at 104.82: Oil surges past $106 to close at 15-month high:  Gold ended at 1,283: Gold futures tally four session gain of over 5%, The VIX declined 0.28 to 13.94.       
    "The S&P 500 index and the Dow industrials closed on Thursday at record highs, a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank will keep a loose monetary policy for some time ..."    
   "Hello again, all-time highs. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Bipartisan push in Senate for Glass-Steagall’s return.    
    Republicans put legislation forward to overhaul housing finance.    
    Why stocks still have room to run.    
    Jobless claims at 2-month high.    
    30-year-mortgage rate rises to 2-year high.   
    European stocks rise in Fed-fueled rally.    
    China says Glaxo bribed doctors, hospitals.    
    What works now?.  "Some say Bernanke did a 180 turnaround, while others say people hadn't been listening. Strategists offer their thoughts on what works now."  
    How the market’s mood can make you money.  "Knowing how investors and Wall Street professionals view the market can provide crucial buy or sell signals, writes Jonathan Burton."   
    IRA payouts may avoid state income tax.   "Most investors know that withdrawals from traditional IRAs and other tax-deferred retirement plans are generally taxable on the federal level. But they need to know some states don’t tax retirement-account withdrawals at all." 
    Microsoft Revamps Structure and Management.  "The giant software company is creating four new divisions and reassigning nearly every senior executive as it tries to create timely products that consumers want."  
    Microsoft says to work as 'single company' after overhaul.    
    How a Student Loan Deal Will Get Done in the Senate"A student loan bill is not dead yet. Senators worked into the night to try to forge a bipartisan agreement on student-loan interest rates."  
    Mortgage Rates Rise to the Highest Level in Nearly 2 Years.  "
The 30-year mortgage rate rose to its highest level in nearly two years this week, according to mortgage financing company Freddie Mac."  
    Wal-Mart playing hardball on wages in Washington.  
    Where wages are plummeting.    
    Since the VIX is vexed, consider some alternatives.    
    Washington is broken, but don’t blame just GOP.  "Liberals accuse Republicans of “postpolicy nihilism” but aren't offering alternate vision."  
    Insiders switch to selling as bankruptcy approaches: WSJ.    
    Discounters did heavy lifting in June.    
    Auction of 30-year notes attracts nondealer demand.   
    Bernanke's sisyphean task to separate tapering from rate hike views.    
    Rising rates cost consumers and banks.    
    Reeves: 5 bubbles investors need to watch.    
    Home-equity lines bedevil Americans.   "Despite all the seemingly positive news surrounding the housing market and consumer credit this week, at least one group of homeowners is still struggling." 
    Senators Introduce Bill to Break Up Megabanks.  "A small bipartisan group of senators on Thursday introduced legislation that would break up Wall Street's megabanks by separating traditional banking activity from riskier financial services."  
    See: Traders Debate Small Caps vs. Large Caps.    
    China Could 'Shock' Markets With Big GDP Miss.    
    Bernanke Calms the Waters, Low Rate Pledge Is a Present: Don Hays"In late May, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke triggered a month-long sell-off in stocks and bonds when he told Congress that substantial improvement in the economy could see a scaling back of the Fed's bond-buying program. Today, exactly 50 days later, he has managed to soothe investors all over the world."  
    How food stamps became the poison pill in the federal farm bill.    
    3 Myths About Self-Driving Cars.    
    E-Book Ruling Cements Amazon’s Virtual Monopoly.  
    Student-loan deal taking form in Senate     
    House to vote on Obamacare mandate delay.    
    Climate change to plague energy industry- DOE    
    U.S. June budget surplus $117 billion- Treasury"The U.S. government posted a budget surplus in June, the latest sign of rapidly improving public finances that could reduce the urgency in Congress to strike a deal to raise the nation's limit on borrowing. ..."  
    Blood test could offer clues on aging, vulnerability to disease.    
    Did the Banks Dump Treasuries to Boost Their Lending Profits?.          
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
Learning To Say, "It's Not What I Do"   "First off, I'd like to thank all of you that took the time to communicate your thoughts on our Global Macro series. Your kind words were sincerely appreciated. And since the responses were unanimously positive, we will make a habit of checking in on the macro themes on a monthly basis from now on. Perhaps the key takeaway from our brief review of the global macro categories is that the U.S. stock market is really the only game in town that is working these days. Yes, it is true that Japan is also a bright spot in an otherwise difficult foreign market environment. However, having ... Read More »"  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Improves Again  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Increase 16,000.   
    Early Analysis: Markets Like Bernanke Comments.     
 
    Market futures are slightly lower tonight.


2013-7-10 (Wednesday): , Wall Street flat after Fed minutes, but Bernanke lifts futures; Stocks buoyant as earnings get underway. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 16.50 points (0.47%) to end at 3,520.76. The Dow shed 8.68 points (-0.06%) to end at 15,291.66; the S&P 500 added 0.30 points (0.02%) to 1,652.62. Oil closed at 106.61: Oil surges past $106 to close at 15-month high:  Gold ended at 1,282: Gold gains more ground in electronic trade, The VIX declined 0.14 to 14.21.       
    "The Dow slipped and the S&P 500 edged up less than a point on Wednesday, interrupting a four-day rally, with investors trying to gauge when the Federal Reserve may scale back on its economic stimulus. ..."    
   "Investors pushed stocks closer to record highs Tuesday after a positive start to earnings season gave global markets a tailwind. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Bernanke stresses rates to stay low for long time.    
    U.S. stock futures rise on Bernanke rate comments.    
    Adam Posen: Fed is about to shoot the U.S. economy in the foot.   
    Fed more hawkish than minutes show.    
    Taper in 3 months- September camp says ‘yes’.    
    Half of Fed sees ‘QE’ halt by year-end.    
    Excerpts of June minutes.     
    Summers, not Yellen, leading candidate for top Fed job- report.    
    Will Summers replace Bernanke?.    
    Fed split in June on QE timing; Bernanke sees easy policy for now"About half of the Federal Reserve's policymakers felt the U.S. central bank's bond-buying stimulus should be brought to a halt by year end when they met in June, but many wanted reassurance the U.S. jobs ..."  
    U.S. wholesale inventories drop 0.5% in May.    
    Coming up: Fed minutes may give taper clues.  
    Oil prices above $105 could be next monster under economy's bed.    
    Sarah Palin considers Senate run.    
    ‘Middle-class revolution’ fuels Pentagon plan"Francis Fukuyama ignores the real problem in the government's failure to meet the expectations of the modern middle class, writes Paul B. Farrell."  
    Europe stocks lose steam ahead of Fed news.    
    Mortgage refi plans halve in 2 months.  "Homeowners start to feel the pain of rising bond yields." 
›œ    Mortgage applications slid 23% last week: MBA.    
    Hulbert: Danger sign in high P/Es.    
    Brian Jones keeps nailing his forecasts.   "This Societe Generale economist has won our "Forecaster of the Month" contest in three of the last four months." 
    Bond-market massacre isn't over yet.   "As rates continue to tick higher, this massacre isn't over yet, says John Nyardi." 
    Why the Feds Are Going After Insider Trading, Not Wall Street CEOs.  "Insider trading cases have been used politically to show ‘we're cracking down on Wall Street’ but they have nothing to do with the crisis that started the call for a crackdown, says Fox Business senior correspondent Charlie Gasparino."  
    Hulbert: Not all rate hikes are created equal.    
    B.of.A. Merrill: No rate hike for a long time.    
    Youth and health, are no longer synonymous"Young America’s unhealthiness is changing the economics of care."  
    What WD-40 Can Tell You About the World.   "Forget Alcoa, there's an overlooked bellwether you should be watching, says Brian Sozzi of Belus Capital Advisors." 
    The Myth of Corporate America's Offshore Cash.    
    Does Small-Cap Rally Signal It's Time to Buy?.  
    Senate bill to reverse spike in student-loan rates fails  "Democratic bill to erase doubling of loan rates fails to line up a filibuster-proof 60 votes in Senate."    
    Time to address Fed elephant in the room.    
    Brazil hikes key rate to 8.5%, as expected    
    World to use less OPEC oil as U.S., Canada lead oil supply growth.   
    IMF Cuts World Growth Forecast Again.    
    Alcoa sees aluminum demand growth; markets tightening.  
    Corruption Worsens Amid Distrust of Government.    
    Cramer: Make 30% in One Day?.  
    Judge Tentatively Lets U.S. Pursue Fraud Lawsuit Versus S&P.    
    Fed's Williams: Moderation may be best policy..    
    Private-sector hiring is strongest in a year.    
    Obama gives broccoli a presidential thumbs-up, and politics break out.      
    'Peak oil' website shutting down.  
    Sequester hampers Alzheimer’s fight.  "A U.S. official sees the push for more treatment as hobbled by budget ax."  
    U.K. cleans house with Libor sale to NYSE Euronext.   
    Is ‘NY-bor’ any better than Libor?.  "Shifting lending-rate benchmark from London to New York is opportunity to clean house, writes David Weidner."   
    A case for high-yield REITs.    
    Italy's rating lowered one notch to BBB: S&P.        
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part III   "With stocks in an uptrend at the present time and nothing much new to report, we're going to finish up what will now become at the very least a bimonthly review of the global macro picture. This morning we will take an executive summary look at Japan, Commodities, and Currencies. Again, I do not pretend to suggest that the commentary provided this week is anything even remotely close to a thorough analysis of the various global macro categories. However, as ... Read More »"  
    Fed Minutes Confirm Fed Could End QE This Year"The key takeaway from the most recent FOMC minutes was that about half the FOMC officials present expect QE to end by the end of 2014. Many others felt that it would be appropriate to continue QE into ... Read More »"  
    Investors Intelligence: Bearish Sentiment Still Rising.    
 
    Market futures are up ¾ % tonight.


2013-7-9 (Tuesday): Wall Street rises for fourth day on earnings hope, Stocks buoyant as earnings get underway. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 19.43 points (0.56%) to end at 3,4504.26. The Dow rose 75.65 points (0.50%) to end at 15,300.34; the S&P 500 added 11.86 points (0.72%) to 1,652.32. Oil closed at 104.30: Oil tops $104 as API reports crude supply drop:  Gold ended at 1,240:Gold futures finish higher for a second day, The VIX declined 0.43 to 14.35.       
    "After suffering a grueling finish to the second quarter, stocks are staging a quiet comeback, but fund manager Ed Dempsey says it's unlikely to last."    
   "Investors pushed stocks closer to record highs Tuesday after a positive start to earnings season gave global markets a tailwind. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Charts say it's getting pretty bullish out there.    
    This is a market that wants to go up.    
    Big Round Numbers Signal Appetite for Risk Is Back"Big round numbers are rolling through world asset markets at the moment, most of them marking a threshold leading to a revival of investor risk appetites."  
    Wall St. on Track for Fourth Day of Gains"Stocks rose on Tuesday, carrying the S&P 500 closer to all-time highs and putting it on track for a fourth straight advance as earnings season got under way."  
    Time to Sell? Downside Risks Rising for U.S. Stocks, Says Dempsey""   
    What you don’t know about housing’s (bogus) recovery"For the bulk of Americans, rebound hasn’t happened or is too late, writes David Weidner."  
    Michael A. Gayed fingers the biggest threat to the housing recovery.    
    Foreclosures tumble 27% — but Florida rate is three times average.    
    U.S. stocks rise on earnings optimism.    
    IMF: Nervous markets a risk to global growth.    
    John Paulson's giant loss.   "His once-highflying gold fund is now down 65% this year." 
    Cody Willard: Easiest way to buy physical gold.    
    How to earn tax-free income (really).  "There are still ways to earn tax-free income. These are some of the best federal-income-tax-free deals."  
    Hulbert: Not all rate hikes are created equal.    
    B.of.A. Merrill: No rate hike for a long time.    
    Be happy about rising rates"At this stage of the business cycle, rising interest rates are good news not bad, writes Irwin Kellner."  
    Welcome to the revenue recession.   "Nicholas Colas sees second consecutive quarter of shrinking sales." 
    Goldman: Earnings could be bottoming out.  "Fund sounds loopy, but so did gold ETFs, writes Chuck Jaffe."  
    Alcoa ‘beat’ helped by recent cuts to estimates.  
    Destinations to really beat the heat.   "Get out of the blazing sun — as well as the air-conditioning — with these seasonal escapes." 
    How exposed is Hong Kong to ‘Likonomics’?.    
    Chinese consumer price rises speed up   "China's consumer prices increase at a faster pace in June, but wholesale prices chalk up a 16th straight month of deflation." 
    Some China authorities now accountable.   
    IMF Cuts World Growth Forecast Again.    
    Alcoa sees aluminum demand growth; markets tightening.  
    Corruption Worsens Amid Distrust of Government.    
    Cramer: Make 30% in One Day?.  
    Judge Tentatively Lets U.S. Pursue Fraud Lawsuit Versus S&P.    
    Fed's Williams: Moderation may be best policy. .    
    Private-sector hiring is strongest in a year.    
    Obama gives broccoli a presidential thumbs-up, and politics break out.      
    'Peak oil' website shutting down.  
    Sequester hampers Alzheimer’s fight.  "A U.S. official sees the push for more treatment as hobbled by budget ax."  
    U.K. cleans house with Libor sale to NYSE Euronext.   
    Is ‘NY-bor’ any better than Libor?.  "Shifting lending-rate benchmark from London to New York is opportunity to clean house, writes David Weidner."   
    A case for high-yield REITs.    
    Italy's rating lowered one notch to BBB: S&P.        
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
The Macro View From 30,000 Feet   "Our best guess is that the U.S. stock market is continuing to recover from the "tapering = tightening" freak-out that occurred from 6/19 through 6/24. Some will argue that stocks cannot survive rising rates for long while others (more specifically, those dressed in their horns and hooves) suggest that good economic news is actually a good thing and that rates are rising for the "right reasons." Personally, I think rates are rising due to "the bond trade" that is currently ... Read More »"  
    NFIB Small Business Index Pulls Back in June
    Early Analysis: Europe Relief Spurs Gains.    
    Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season With A Beat.    
 
    Market futures are up slightly tonight.


2013-7-8 (Monday): , Dow posts triple-digit gain; Wall Street Rises, S&P Nears All-Time High. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 5.45 points (0.16%) to end at 3,484.83. The Dow rose 88.85 points (0.59%) to end at 15,.69.69; the S&P 500 added 8.57 points (1.53%) to 1,640.46. Oil closed at 102.92: Oil falls back below $103 ahead of Nymex close:  Gold ended at 1,235: Gold ends higher to recoup some of its recent loss, The VIX declined 0.21 to 14.78.       
    "Stocks edged higher Monday ahead of a big, upcoming wild card: corporate earnings season. More"    
   "U.S. stocks rose on Monday just before the start of earnings season, building on gains following last week's robust employment report to push the S&P 500 closer to its all-time high set in May.".    


Marketwatch says:     
    ‘Great Rotation’ wipes out $120 billion of bond wealth"The exodus from bonds has happened faster than anyone predicted, writes Thomas Kee."  
    Why rising yields won't derail dividend stocks.    
"Commentary: The pace of job creation quickened to 195,000, but there's been no substantial improvement in the labor market that would lead the Fed to taper its bond buying, Rex Nutting writes."
    Goldman sees 10-year yields around 3% at end of year, 4% in 2016.    
    Garmin to show directions on your windshield.    
    Europe stocks cheer U.S. economy, low rates.    
    Draghi urges Portugal to make structural reforms.    
    Marsh: More problems on the ECB's shoulders.    
    3 reasons solar stocks will be hot.  "A number of factors appear to be coming together in a bullish way for the sector, writes Jeff Reeves."  
    S&P: Investors shouldn't rely on our ‘puffery’.    
    Gold: Bottom, or $900 next?.    
    Gold Correction May Be Mostly Done: Deutsche Bank"Strategists at Deutsche Bank said much of gold's correction may have already happened, in a note on Monday."  
    Gold demand weak, traders wait for bigger falls.    
    Don’t laugh off  the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF.  "Fund sounds loopy, but so did gold ETFs, writes Chuck Jaffe."  
    Watch Fed minutes for clues on tapering plans.  
    Why high jobless rate could help earnings.   "Corporate earnings are expected to be weak again, and an unwillingness to hire is helping the bottom line. (24/7 Wall Street)" 
    Mortgage rates to soar again?.  "Recent increases already have jacked up housing costs. Thursday's Freddie Mac report may be key."  
    When you want to ‘age in place’   "Many people have their hearts set on staying in their homes for a lifetime, or aging in place. It’s easier to do so if the area has the right amenities and services." 
    Does Uncle Sam tax lemonade stands?.  "How young entrepreneurs can get started, and the tax issues they’ll face"  
    Alcoa to Kick Off Earnings Season of Enormous Headwinds.  "Alcoa is overrated as a purported bellwether and earnings season as a whole is going to be rough, says the ATAC Inflation Rotation Fund's Ed Dempsey."  
    Wall Street Searches for Growth as Earnings Season Begins.  
    Analysts Boosting S&P 500 Target 11% Reduce Earnings Growth.    
    Goldman Sachs: Treasury Yields Will Hit 4%.  
    Watch: Bill Gross vs. Goldman - Who’s Right-.    
    Japanese investors have been selling U.S. treasurys — surprised?.    
    Dow Will Hit 60,000 in 20 Years: Ron Baron.      
    Elite Investors Get Tons of Unfair Advantages: Blodget"While two seconds may not sound like much, it was often worth millions of dollars to high-frequency traders who account for about half of all daily U.S. stock trading." 
    Obama makes new push for smarter government.    
    Treasurys gain in retreat from yield spike.     
    Rosenberg declares the deleveraging cycle (almost) over.    
    Greeks march in protest against bailout job cuts.    
    Tax all foreign income at fixed rate, Summers urges.    
    A/C as unlikely key to retirement"AARP is keeping close tabs on cooling costs this sizzling summer. And here's why"  
    Consumer credit jumps by most in year .    
    Women face long-term-care hikes.  "Window is closing for those who aim to buy long-term-care insurance at same price as men."  
    US Consumer Borrowing Up as Credit Card Use Rises.   "Americans increased their borrowing in May at the fastest pace in a year, as borrowing in the category that includes credit cards reached its highest point since the fall of 2010." 
    Is Larry Summers Ready to Run the Fed?.  "He's been called both brilliant and bombastic, has angered women and the faculty at Harvard University, yet he has also had the ear of two Presidents."  
    Valuations Don’t Matter' Howard Lindzon.    
    Supreme Court Asked to Review Leaked Verizon Ruling.  
    "I'm excited by the possibilities." - Bill Gates   "One characteristic connecting many of history's greatest minds is a fanatical desire for continuous learning. Bill Gates is notorious for reading."    
    Some expect that Friday's jobs report and other recent data will give the Fed reason to start tapering in the fall, but Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, is not convinced.    
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
   
The Macro View From 30,000 Feet   "As I have stated a time or two, I am not a deep-thinking, macro-driven investor. No, I prefer to keep things simple and try to stay in tune with the overall market environment. Our goal is to try and utilize the appropriate strategy for the environment and to not stray too far from what is actually happening in the market. My thinking is that while this approach may not get me on the cover of magazines, it will keep me out of trouble and on the right side of the market's really important trends. However, I recognize that there are a good many investors out there that prefer to invest according to their macro view of the world. The plan here is pretty straightforward. One ... Read More »"  
    NAAIM Index: Managers Leaning Cautious   "The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) member firms who are active money managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure. This ... Read More »"
    Early Analysis: Europe Relief Spurs Gains.    
    The Week Ahead- Earning Parade Gets Underway.    
 
    Market futures are up ½ % tonight.


2013-7-5 (Friday): , Jobs DataWall St. gains as jobs data signals stronger economy; Stocks rise after jobs report. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 35.71 points (1.04%) to end at 3,479.38. The Dow rose 147.29 points (0.98%) to end at 15,135.84; the S&P 500 added 16.48 points (1.02%) to 1,631.89. Oil closed at 103.63: Oil slips but stays above $101 on Egypt unrest:  Gold ended at 1,222: Gold drops nearly $40 to suffer a weekly loss, The VIX declined 1.41 to 14.89.       
    "Stocks rose sharply on Friday after robust jobs data pointed to economic growth and investors overcame concerns that the Federal Reserve may begin scaling back its stimulus efforts as soon as September. ..."    
   "Investors welcomed signs of strength in the job market Friday, but gains in the stock market were kept in check by concerns the Federal Reserve will scale back its stimulus policies as the economy recovers. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Why the jobs gains aren't good enough.    

"Commentary: The pace of job creation quickened to 195,000, but there's been no substantial improvement in the labor market that would lead the Fed to taper its bond buying, Rex Nutting writes."
    Reaction: Economists see September taper.    
    See the jobs data in charts.    
    Wanted: New Fed playbook at the White House.    
    U.S. economy creates 195,000 jobs in June.    
    Jobs report underestimates underemployed.  "The market’s upbeat reaction to Friday’s tiny improvement in unemployment suggests that this is an economy on the mend. Jennifer Waters says the reality is far less sunny."  
    Job growth heats up, full employment far away.    
    Remember the non-compete agreement.   "After remaining loyal employees throughout the recession, many workers in the improving job market are developing a wandering eye. But non-compete agreements could hold them back." 
    30-year-mortgage rate falls to 4.29%.    
    Retirement spots for real-estate investors"Boomers will retire in greater numbers over the next 15 years, creating opportunities for real-estate investors."  
    Fewer jumbo mortgages are under water.    
    Kevin Marder says Investors should take note of Nasdaq action.    
    China: Bull market for credit default swaps.    
    Michael Gayed asks: Emerging markets: Rally or crash?.    
    30-year-mortgage rate falls to 4.29%.    
    Bonds: Gross caught in TIPS trap.  
    John Nyaradi addresses: The ‘Great Bond Massacre' of 2013.    
    S&P cuts Portugal outlook to negative on turmoil.  
    U.K. stocks end with best week since January.      
    Europe gains in ECB-fueled week; Germany lags.   
    Will This ECB Statement Soothe the Markets?.    
    Strong Jobs Report Is Gold's Nightmare.     
    Job Growth Posts Large Gain in June; Rate Holds.    
    Ignore Feldstein, Fed Should Taper in 2014: Economist Dean Baker.    
    Good Jobs Report Means Taper on Track for Sept:- Economist.   "A better than expected jobs report may give some a reason to extend their 4th of July celebration, but it also might put the Fed taper on track for as soon as September, says Bob Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics." 
    America’s Mess in Egypt"Recent events in Egypt put President Obama in a tough spot, even if not as difficult as that of deposed Egyptian President Morsi, writes Peter Morici is professor of international business at the Smith School of Business."  
    Oil prices at 2013 high above $103 a barrel on Egypt worries .    
    Fitch downgrades Egypt's credit ratings.    
    Egypt stocks rally as army ousts president.    
    Watch: 'Executive Presence,' and How to Get It.    
    What Happened to Unstoppable Samsung?.    
    Gartman: Expect Schizophrenic Reaction to Jobs.  
    Treasury Yields Soar to 2011 High on Jobs Data.    
    Treasury yields mark largest daily rise since 2010.    
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    ISM Non-Manufacturing: Something For Everyone
   "Economic Update: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services Sector) Index The ISM (Institute of Supply Management) Non-Manufacturing index for June shows the services sector of the economy expanded for a 42nd consecutive month. The index was reported at 52.2, which was below the consensus estimate for a reading of 54.1 as well as the May reading of 53.7 (April: 53.1, Mar: 54.4, Feb: 56.0, Jan: 55.2, Dec: 55.7, Nov: 54.7, Oct: 54.2, Sept: 55.1, August: 53.7, July: 52.6, June: 52.1, May: 53.7, April: ... Read More »"  
    ADP- Private Sector Job Growth Improves in June   "The latest data from ADP showed improvement in the Jobs market during the month of June. The report, which does not include job creation in the government sector, said that the private sector produced ... Read More »"
    Early Analysis: Jobs Data In Focus.    
    ISM Non-Manufacturing- Something For Everyone.    
 
    The market indices have risen on the week, and have closed just above the resistance level at their 50-day moving averages. (It doesn't hurt that our stock market pundits are calling for a summer swoon.)


2013-7-3 (Wednesday Noon): Wall St. Ends Higher Ahead of Holiday, Jobs Data; U.S. stocks shake off global worries. . The NASDAQ Composite gained 10.27 points (0.30%) to end at 3,443.67. The Dow rose 56.14 points (0.38%) to end at 14,988.55; the S&P 500 added 1.33 points (0.08%) to 1,615.41. Oil closed at 101.35: Oil slips but stays above $101 on Egypt unrest. Gold ended at 1,244: Gold futures log first loss in three sessions, The VIX rose 0.24 to 16.20.       
    "U.S. stocks edged lower on Tuesday as stocks erased gains in late session after the benchmark S&P 500 index found resistance at its 50-day moving average."    
   "Stocks rose in a volatile half-day session on Wednesday as traders squared positions before the holiday and Friday's job market data.".    


Marketwatch says:     
    Jobs data upbeat, but trade and services dim outlook.    
    U.S. jobless claims fall by 5,000 to 343,000.    
    ISM services index sees slower growth in June.    
    Private-job growth picks up in June.    
    Barclays cuts U.S. Q2 GDP forecast after trade.    
    Second-quarter growth suddenly not looking so hot.    
    Spike in trade deficit could signal weaker growth.    
    U.S. trade gap widens sharply in May.    
    Stocks slip as Portugal, Egypt offset U.S. data.    
    5 things to know about turmoil in Portugal"Thought the euro-zone crisis was over? Bond yields are soaring and spilling over to other markets.Here's what to know about the latest hot spot."  
    Portugal bonds, stocks slam Europe markets.    
    Unemployment is among highest in the world.    
    Financial stocks down on turmoil in Europe.    
    Central banks play chicken, and lose.    
    30-year-mortgage rate falls to 4.29%.    
    Morsi repeated McCain’s error: Ignoring economy.  "Egypt’s Mohammed Morsi didn’t obey this era’s most basic political dictum: Economics first, Amotz Asa-El writes."
    Morsi defies demands as deadline passes.    
    Countries that spend the most on medicine.  "The U.S. spends the most per person, but what countries follow? (24/7 Wall Street)"  
    Merriman: Why Warren Buffett shouldn't manage your money.   
    Nutting: Don’t blame the safety net.     
    Hoping for a Gold Bounce: Look East.    
    UBS: Oil to pop to $110, then drop.    
    Oil Tops $100 Again: The One Thing Energy Investors Need to Watch.   "Oil topped $100 amid continued riots in the Middle East. The catalyst this time, however, isn’t from a major oil producing nation like Iran or Iraq but from Egypt, a relatively small producer that doesn’t even export oil." 
    Does China own July 4?"Diane Bullock says American companies often aren't celebrating as consumers spend for the holiday."  
    Michael Gayed on Emerging markets: Rally or crash?.    
    Thomas H. Kee, Jr., warns Don't trust this dull market.    
    John Nyardi discusses The ‘Great Bond Massacre' of 2013.  
    Jeff White relates 5 reasons this bounce is suspect.    
    Watch: Bond, Stock Funds Hemorrhage Money.    
    Watch: Why Gartman Now Is Bullish on Stocks.    
    Get Ready to Buy Ugly, Cheap Emerging Markets    
    Global Turmoil Threatens America’s Economic Independence.    
    Drop in Chinese Stocks Does Not Equal a Weak Economy: Karabell.    
    Delay Will Prove Obamacare Not ‘Jobs-Killer’: Baker. "The Obama administration is delaying one of the provisions that opponents insist would keep corporate America from growing and hiring."   
    Gallup: U.S. Workers Say Job Creation is at a Five-Year High.    
    .   "Despite a rebound, prices remain 35% below the record high reached in September 2011, and market watchers say the metal has further to slide" 
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    ISM Non-Manufacturing: Something For Everyone
   "Economic Update: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services Sector) Index The ISM (Institute of Supply Management) Non-Manufacturing index for June shows the services sector of the economy expanded for a 42nd consecutive month. The index was reported at 52.2, which was below the consensus estimate for a reading of 54.1 as well as the May reading of 53.7 (April: 53.1, Mar: 54.4, Feb: 56.0, Jan: 55.2, Dec: 55.7, Nov: 54.7, Oct: 54.2, Sept: 55.1, August: 53.7, July: 52.6, June: 52.1, May: 53.7, April: ... Read More »"  
    ADP- Private Sector Job Growth Improves in June   "The latest data from ADP showed improvement in the Jobs market during the month of June. The report, which does not include job creation in the government sector, said that the private sector produced ... Read More »"
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Continues to Improve.    
    Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 5,000.    
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Rebounds .        . 
    Challenger: Planned Job Cuts Rise in June.     
    Early Analysis: Europe Worries Roil Markets.    
    Europe Services PMI Show Continued Weakness.    
    China Non-Manufacturing PMI Dips To Four-Month Low.    
 
    Market futures are flat tonight.


2013-7-2 (Tuesday Night): Wall Street Dips After Early Gains Fade; Stocks lose traction. . The NASDAQ Composite declined 1.09 points (-9.03%) to end at 3,433.40. The Dow fell 42.55 points (-0.28%) to end at 14,932.41; the S&P 500 dipped 0.88 points (-0.05%) to 1,614.09. Oil closed at 99.49: Oil closes above $99, at highest in over a year. Gold ended at 1,244: Gold futures log first loss in three sessions, The VIX rose 0.07 to 16.44.       
    "U.S. stocks edged lower on Tuesday as stocks erased gains in late session after the benchmark S&P 500 index found resistance at its 50-day moving average."    
   "U.S. stocks turned lower Tuesday afternoon, as investors tuned into the political turmoil in Egypt and took a cautious approach ahead of Friday's jobs report. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    What are the odds for a strong second half?.  "It certainly would be a stunner for stocks, says Mark Hulbert."  
    Kellner: Call it a ‘stealth recovery’.    
    Commentary: ‘Twist’ and now ‘taper’ has Fed-watchers shouting.    
    Stocks up on factory orders, car sales.    
    Dollar tops 100 yen; first time since early June.  
    U.S. factory orders climb more than expected.    
    Fed OKs capital rules, with bank concessions.   
    Fed's Dudley: Fear of quicker rate hike misplaced.     
    U.S. car makers post June strong sales.    
    Auto Sales Back to Pre-Crisis Levels, Housing Recovery Helps"Detroit is back--not the city, but the automakers. Overall sales data later in the day are expected to show an 8% uptick after earlier reports showed Ford's sales increased 13%, Chrysler's rose 8.2%, and GM's were up 6.5%."  
    Auto sales maintain momentum, led by pickups.    
    Social Security secrets.  "How to get bigger benefits, and the truth about the agency's bottome line."  
    Home-price growth is the fastest in 7 years"Prices fell from year-ago levels in just two states."  
    Hidden risk in quirky houses.    
    Home-construction spending at 4-year high.   
    A tax break for retirement-home costs.    
    Oil flirts with $99 on Egypt fears.  "The country's military is telling the president to end the unrest and 'meet the demands of the people'."    
    Don’t take out student loans this week.    
    3 reasons why retirees don't spend.  "The same savings you sacrificed for in anticipation of retirement is sitting on the sideline."  
    Panicking over the end of QE is a mistake.    
    Oil, gas, solar lead to freedom from OPEC.   
    S&P back for another crack at major resistance.    
    U.S Slams China Over Snowden (Video).    
    Portuguese yields spike as finance chief resigns.    
    Pimco fund sees June outflow of almost $10 bln.    
    Europe stocks fall, led by Fresenius, banks.    
    S&P back for another crack at major resistance   "The specific level rests at its 50-day moving average — S&P 1,624 — and this area remains the technical bull-bear battleground." 
    Banks aren’t getting what they paid for.  "Despite enormous sums paid to bank lobbyists, the Fed is planning new rules that will make too-big-to-fail institutions less susceptible to panics."  
    Long-term care sticker shock for retirees.   "Insurers raise premiums as sales droop; some customers face price hikes of 50% or more." 
    Why stocks could be 24% higher next July.    
    The U.S. Tax System: Here’s How Messed Up It Is.   "The corporate tax structure is so flawed that fixing it is one of the rare issues Democrats and Republicans generally agree upon." 
    How to Make Taxes Fairer and Abolish the IRS.    
    Why You Really Should Take Tomorrow Off  
    For Financial Geeks, a Do-It-Yourself Hedge Fund Site.  
    Don't count on summer rally"We're still awaiting confirmation from technical indicators turning truly bullish, not just rallying from oversold conditions, writes Lawrence McMillan."  
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Cycle Update: I've Got Some Good News and Some Bad News
   "In all honesty, it is difficult to make heads or tails of the "action" in the market on a day like Friday. Stocks opened lower then rebounded quickly and spent the vast majority of the day around the breakeven mark. But then with 21 minutes left in the day, the month, and the second quarter, the algos switched into high gear. During the last 21 minutes of Friday's session, the S&P dove 9 points (or nearly 0.60%), with 6 of the points coming in the last 5 minutes of the day. And since there wasn't ... Read More »"  
    Factory Orders Up in May   
    CoreLogic Home Price Index Up 15th Straight Month.    
    Early Analysis: Europe, Fedspeak In Focus.    
    .        .  
    Market futures are flat tonight.


2013-7-1 (Monday Night): Wall St. Rallies on Data, but Pares Gains in Late Trading; Stocks: Welcoming the 2nd half. . The NASDAQ Composite chugged up 31.24 points (0.92%) to end at 3,434.39. The Dow fell 65.36 points (0.44%) to end at 14,974.96; the S&P 500 rose 8.58 points (0.54%) to 1,614.96. Oil closed at 97.99: Oil Bulls Bank on 'Goldilocks' US Jobs Data. Gold ended at 1,252: Gold prices rally following quarterly slide, The VIX fell 0.47 to 16.39.       
    "Stocks kicked off the third quarter on Monday with gains supported by data that showed U.S. manufacturing bounced back and construction spending near a four-year high, but pulled back ahead of the close."    
   "Investors kicked off the second half of 2013 in a bullish mood, sending stocks higher Monday. More".    


Marketwatch says:     
    June's 'Sell Side indicator' says time to join buy side.    
    Deutsche Bank: S&P 500 will bottom out above 1,525 in mid-July.    
    Stocks rally to start July.    
    Ready to be whipsawed by the ‘summer swoon’?"Markets won't do what the great majority of people believe they will do, writes Avi Gilburt."   
    Jobs, jobs, jobs.  "It's all about the monthly payrolls. Also, watch manufacturing from China and Japan."  
    Goldman: June jobs report could disappoint.    
    ISM report shortens odds of weak payrolls"Stocks close higher Monday but well off session highs reached after a survey of U.S. manufacturers added to positive economic reports from Europe and Japan."  
    Where fund managers are finding overseas bargains.    
    Jaffe: Dumping bond fund?- Read this first.    
    Tough leverage-limit talks for big banks.    
    Indicators say gold will double.    
    Home-construction spending at 4-year high.   
    Bonds throw ‘taper tantrum,’ fund buyers break.  "Investors in bond mutual funds will have to tread carefully heading into the second half of the year, writes Rachel Koning Beals."  
    U.S. stock funds, ETFs stand out in first half.      
    Fund managers see international bargains.    
    Why more money may flee bond funds.    
    Don't abandon bonds, celebrate higher rates.    
    Scorching heat strains power grid.  "California’s power grid is showing signs of strain on Monday as record heat wave blankets most of the West."  
    California issues power alert to cope with heat.    
    What to look for in shortenend week.    
    Your biggest problem is probably yourself.    
    Large-caps are in play.    
    As Croatia joins the EU, why some still want in.    
    Marsh: Irish tapes strengthen Merkel's hand    
    Europe stocks looking at bruising month, quarter.    
    The end of cheap money in China.    
    China sees slowdown in new orders"Two rival gauges of Chinese factory activity differ over how growth is going , though both report worse results."  
    How we spend time outside work.   "While the economy has changed dramatically over the past decade, how we spend our free time has not. (24/7 Wall St.)" 
    This Is the 'Greatest Planetary Crisis That We Face,' Says Sen. Sanders.  "Approving the Keystone Pipeline would be a disaster if the U.S. is 'serious about understanding that global warming is the greatest planetary crisis that we face,' says Sen. Bernie Sanders."  
    Why You Really Should Take Tomorrow Off  
    For Financial Geeks, a Do-It-Yourself Hedge Fund Site.  
    Don't count on summer rally"We're still awaiting confirmation from technical indicators turning truly bullish, not just rallying from oversold conditions, writes Lawrence McMillan."  
    .    
   
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here. and the Mars articles here.

State of the Markets articles include:    
    Understanding The "Fast Money" Games
   "In all honesty, it is difficult to make heads or tails of the "action" in the market on a day like Friday. Stocks opened lower then rebounded quickly and spent the vast majority of the day around the breakeven mark. But then with 21 minutes left in the day, the month, and the second quarter, the algos switched into high gear. During the last 21 minutes of Friday's session, the S&P dove 9 points (or nearly 0.60%), with 6 of the points coming in the last 5 minutes of the day. And since there wasn't ... Read More »"  
    NAAIM Index: Managers Get Defensive   "The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) member firms who are active money managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure. This ... Read More »" 
    ISM Manufacturing Report Supports Continued Fed Stimulus.    
    Markit PMI Below Consensus.    
    China Manufacturing PMI's Mixed in June.    
    Weekly Preview: Economics, Employment Report, Fed to Drive Markets In Shortened Week.    
    .        .  
    Market futures are up ¼ % tonight.