Daily Investment Interpretations Archive

July 1, 2011, to December 31, 2011
January 1, 2011 to June 30, 2011
July 1, 2010, to December 31, 2010
.
January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2010
 
July 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009
January 1, 2009, to June 30, 2009
July 1, 2008, to December 31, 2008
May 7, 2008, to June 30, 2008

Daily Investment Interpretations

2012-8-9: (Thursday Night): Once again, the markets ended about where they began the day: U.S. stocks little changed; Nasdaq Composite rises, Stocks: Investors move to the sidelines. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 7.39 points (0.25%) to end at 3,018.64. The Dow decremented 10.45 points (-0.08%) to close at 13,165.10; the S&P 500 added a meager 0.58 points (0.04%) to settle at 1,402.80. Oil ended unchanged at 93.69: Oil edges up on China data, tropical storm; Gold ended at 1,620: Gold inches higher on hopes of easing. The VIX fell 0.03 to 15.29.
    "After four up days, Dow industrials give up small morning gains and turn negative."
     "
U.S. stocks closed mixed following choppy trading Thursday as investors digested a handful of economic reports. More"   
    The markets are currently overbought, and due for a short-term pullback that is at least to test their support in the S&P = 1290 area. However, longer-term, the intermediate-term trend is solidly up.
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Darrell Delamaide says: Euro crisis on pause until after vacation.  
    Willard Cody declaims that Megacap stocks about to break out.  
    Ominous sign on 10-year Treasury chart.  
    Peter Brimelow says, Stocks stall, putting higher rates in focus.  
    Computers vs. humans hits the tipping point.  I have retained these articles for a third day because I want to comment on them, and was unable to do so yesterday and Tuesday. In this article, Mitch Tuchman Says, "The active trading vs. passive investing argument can finally be put to rest. Will the last human being trading stocks please get the lights? We have long known about high-speed trading by computer programs, so-called "high-frequency trading." But as Jason Zweig recently pointed out in The Wall Street Journal , things have taken a turn for the ridiculous. Last week, on the day the Federal Reserve was to announce its course on rate policy, stocks went nuts at the open. Volumes spiked by a factor of 20 on a broad selection of widely held shares. Some fell 10% and then corrected.
                                                  .....................
    "So much for the reassurances from regulators and stock-exchange officials that a repeat of the "flash crash" is impossible. Wednesday's tumble wasn't quite as scary as the nearly $1 trillion drop of May 6, 2010, but it conveyed the same sense of markets spinning out of control and trading machinery going mad.
                                                  .....................

    "The takeaway for the rest of us humans should be easy to grasp. Whatever claim to relevancy active money managers had is quickly disappearing. Not only is trying to beat the market virtually impossible, even sticking your neck out in the active trading vs. passive investing fight is an invitation to get walloped. That's why we recommend a neatly assembled, well-allocated portfolio of low-cost ETFs, the passively managed ones with usually over $1billion in assets that cover broad indexes, exercising disciplined rebalancing, and allowing the portfolio to work its compounding magic over the years.
    This Wall Street tech deal doomed investors.  David Weidner says, among other things:   
    "
Consider that seven years ago the scandal-shocked New York Stock Exchange closed the door on its history by acquiring an electronic market, Archipelago Holdings Inc.

Click to Play

Weidner: Electronic trading has doomed investors

    " Marketwatch columnist David Weidner checks in on Mean Street and says electronic trading has failed the marketplace. (Photo: Bloomberg News)

    "Critics of the NYSE hailed the move. After all, the Big Board had endured embarrassment after embarrassment: the secret accrual of more than $187 million in pay for its chairman, Dick Grasso, allegations of cronyism on the board and, not the least of which, a systemic fraud allegedly perpetrated by the NYSE’s seven specialist firms.
    "That last part was the one that really hurt. The floor broker/specialist system at the Big Board was discovered to be inherently corrupt. Investigators found that the specialists regularly stepped in front of customers to trade for their own accounts. By 2004, five specialist firms agreed to pay a combined $241 million settlement. Read SEC announcement of specialist settlement."

    State of the Markets articles include:     
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    Let's Review (Part III)  "Stocks appear to be treading water at current levels while waiting for the next batch of news/data/reports/rumors that would cause traders to adjust their views on the potential for additional stimulus from the ECB and/or the U.S. Federal Reserve. And make no mistake about it; it is expectations for additional central bank help - first in Europe and second in the U.S. - that is driving the action in the stock market. So, since things are fairly quiet right now, this appears to be a good time to wrap up our review of my major market models that was presented on Monday and Wednesday. In the first two parts of the report, we introduced each ... Read More »"
    U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks in June
    Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 6K.  
    Wholesale Inventores Decline in June
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Declines Again.  
    Chinese Economic Data from July Suggests Stimulus Likely.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly lower again tonight.


2012-8-8: (Wednesday Night): The markets ended about where they began the day: Stocks manage 4th day up, Stocks: Investors step back. The NASDAQ Composite slipped -4.61 points (-0.15%) to end at 3,011.25. The Dow incremented 7.04 points (0.05%) to close at 13,175.64; the S&P 500 added a meager 0.87 points (0.06%) to settle at 1,402.22. Oil ended unchanged at 93.41: Oil lower after last-minute bout of profit-taking; Gold ended at 1,617: Gold inches higher on data, stimulus hopes. The VIX fell 0.68 to 15.30.
    "Major indexes end barely in the black, with the exception of the Nasdaq, down slightly."
     "
U.S. stocks were little changed Wednesday as investors took a breather with the three major indexes at their highest levels since early May. More"   
    The markets are currently overbought, and due for a short-term pullback that is at least to test their support in the S&P = 1290 area. However, longer-term, the intermediate-term trend is solidly up.
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    3-month high but no higher.  "J.P. Morgan envisions a recession scenario if a gridlocked Washington can't act. Investors, won't be happy — try 1,000 for the S&P 500. (Political Watch)"  
    Thomas McKee warns that Rally may be running out of fuel.   
    Mark Hulbert cautions: Watch out for a correction — or worse.  
    Gold to gain following drought, higher food prices?  
    Fed set to make 'Operation Twist' Treasury buys  
    Al Lewis writes Uncle Ben wants us to be happy.  
    Don’t get suckered in by the 'Draghi put'  "Unlike ex-Fed head Alan Greenspan, when European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi talks tough, he doesn’t deliver, writes Matthew Lynn."
    Michael Casey: Draghi's shrewd move  
    Bank of England cuts growth, inflation forecasts  
    Will Bank Of England chief turn out wrong again?  
    Will BOE chief turn out wrong again?  
    Equity, bond divergence widest this century.  
    Computers vs. humans hits the tipping point.  I have retained these articles for second day because I want to comment on them, and was unable to do so yesterday.  
    This Wall Street tech deal doomed investors.    
   
  

    State of the Markets articles include:     
    .Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market  
     Let's Review (Part II)  "Given that the S&P 500 has finished each of the last two days about where it was a minute or two after each day's open, it is fairly clear that the dog days of summer have set in. As such, this is probably as good a time as any to finish up the review of our most important market models and their readings that we began in Monday's report. If you will recall, on Monday we checked in with our Market Environment Model (which was and still is positive), the Technical Health Model (which shows that the vast majority of industries remain technically healthy at this point), our primary Trend indicators (both the short- and intermediate-term trends are positive), Market ... Read More »"
    What Is PIMCO's Agenda These Days?  "The Co-CIO's at Pacific Investment Management Company (aka PIMCO) have been all over the airwaves recently making some bold statements about the outlook for stocks and bonds... ... Read More »"
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Remain Bullish.  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Moves Higher
    U.S. Worker Productivity and Labor Costs Rise.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly lower tonight.


2012-8-7: (Tuesday Night): The markets rose (smartly) for yet another day: S&P 500 ends above 1,400, Stocks gain on hopes for central bank action. The NASDAQ Composite climbed 25.95 points (0.87%) to end at 3,015.86. The Dow escalated 51.09 points (0.39%) to close at 13,1168.60; the S&P 500 gained 7.12 points (0.51%) to settle at 1,401.35. Oil moved up smartly to 93.43: Oil ends at its highest in more than two months; Gold ended at 1,614: Gold slips with demand for safe havens. The VIX rose another 0.03 to 15.98.
    "Broad-based index moves above 1,400 for first time in three months as earnings lend support."
     "
U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, extending gains for a third day, as investors continue to bet global central banks will step in to support the market. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Kevin Marder observes that Stocks regain upward bias  
    Expect a 5% rally going into the election.  
    Michael Ashbaugh is Charting a major technical test.  
    15% chance the U.S. falls off the 'fiscal cliff'.  "J.P. Morgan envisions a recession scenario if a gridlocked Washington can't act. Investors, won't be happy — try 1,000 for the S&P 500. (Political Watch)"  
    Doug Kass cuts long bets on S&P  
    Kleintop: Fed not restoring market integrity.  
    Boston Fed's Rosengren makes case for QE3.  
    Job openings climb to 3.76 million in June.  
    Computers vs. humans hits the tipping point
    This Wall Street tech deal doomed investors.  
    Fed policy: Is it time for a change?
    Mark Hulbert writes: Good news: Earnings growth is slowing.  
    German officials trapped in conservative culture.  
    S&P lowers Greece ratings outlook to negative.  
    Euro crisis brings world to brink of depression.  
   
  

    State of the Markets articles include:     
    .Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market  
    Fed's Rosengren Says More QE is Needed.  "Sign Up to Receive an Email Alert when Flash Headlines are Published Fed Update: Rosengren Says Fed QE Needed In a NY Times interview, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (who is not a voting member of the FOMC this year) said that he was in favor of the Fed further expanding its holdings of Treasury and mortgage bonds – a program commonly referred to as quantitative easing (QE). Rosengren added that the central bank should steadily continue its purchases until it was satisfied with the direction of the ... Read More »"
    Fisher Says Real Problem With Economy is Congress.  
    Manufacturing Orders Decline in Germany.  
    Italy's Economy Contracts For Fourth Quarter 
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are minutely lower tonight.


2012-8-6: (Monday Night): The markets rose somewhat again  today: U.S. stocks grinding higher, Stocks continue their rally. The NASDAQ Composite climbed 22.01 points (0.74%) to end at 2,989.91. The Dow inched up 21.34 points (0.16%) to close at 13,117.51; the S&P 500 incremented 3.24 points (0.23%) to settle at 1,394.23. Oil moved up smartly to 92.25: Oil end at highest in more than two weeks; Gold ended at 1,616: Gold settles at best in a week; platinum off. The VIX fell another 0.31 to 15.95.
    "Street benchmarks find room for further upside. Satisfaction with earnings and Europe cited."
     "
U.S. stocks moved higher Monday as investors continued to cheer an upbeat jobs report and welcomed lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Stocks let off some steam  "Major indexes end up but well off intraday highs, as a light news day keeps many investors on the sidelines."
    Investors take comfort in lower Spanish yields.  
    Treasurys stay up as investors eye Spain.  
    Euro's rebound stalls out below $1.24 mark.    
    ECB hopes keep rally alive for European stocks.  
    Spain 2-year bond yield tumbles sharply.  
    Market whipsaws aren't over  
    Michael Gayed observes that Small caps reach pre-‘Melt-Up’ extreme
    Ghost of Bundesbank past stalks Draghi.  "ECB chief knows well how risky it is to brook full-frontal confrontation with the Bundesbank, writes David Marsh."
    David Penn tells "How I'm trading this saw-toothed S&P rally".  
   
  

    State of the Markets articles include:     
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market.  
    Let's Review...  "With the market being driven primarily by headlines, comments, and rumors relating to anything and everything having to do with Europe these days, it is easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and lose sight of the big picture environment. To be sure, the intraday volatility continues to be eye-popping as the bots grab onto each important word they've been programmed to identify and then race each other to get to the trade first. And while we can't do much about the fact that HFT drives the vast majority of trading on the various exchanges and dark pools, we CAN try ... Read More »"
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes -- August 5, 2012.  "The National Institute for Mental Health has declared this summer's stock market legally insane, suffering from paranoid schizophrenia and multiple personality disorder. They offered as Exhibit A the ... Read More »"   
    Europe Update: Spain, Italy in No Rush to Request Aid.  
    Review of Greece Finances 'Productive' - Troika
   
Sentiment Continues to Falter in Eurozone.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are minutely higher tonight.


2012-8-3: (Friday Night): The markets rocketed upward today: It's payday on Wall Street, Stocks soar on jobs report. The NASDAQ Composite shed another 10.44 points (-0.36%) to end at 2,909.77. The Dow declined a further 92.18 points (-0.71%) to close at 12,878.88; the S&P 500 dipped another 10.32 points (-0.75%) to settle at 1,365.00. Oil moved up smartly to 91.48: Oil rallies nearly 5%, at highest in two weeks; Gold ended at 1,608: Gold ends higher; silver leads metals, up 3%. The VIX fell 1.39 to 17.57.
    "Economy created 163,000 jobs in July, much more than analysts expected, Stocks surged on the news, giving indexes gains for the week."
     "
Stocks rallied Friday as a stronger-than-expected July jobs report helped lift markets for the week. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Jobs report lifts stocks.  "Economy created 163,000 jobs in July, much more than analysts expected, giving the bulls plenty of room to run. Also helping: talk that Spain will file a request for financial aid."
    Labor market's treading water — and that's not bad.  "Treading water doesn't get you very far but it does prevent you from going under, Rex Nutting argues."  
    Rally puts week into black  "Winning run for the Dow and S&P 500 now in fourth week after July jobs report exceeds expectations."
    July data show improved hiring
    Morici: Jobs recovery should be stronger by now.  
    Romney calls July jobless rate a 'hammer blow'.  
    Why stocks can grow more than the economy.  
    Michael Gayed weighs in on The most important charts in the world.   
    Mark Hulbert: Don't get mad, get even.  
    Howard Gold reports: Shilling: New recession has begun.  
    Paul Farrell opines: Big Oil is Earth’s Public Enemy No. 1.  
    Spaniards forge ahead.  "Despite hurdles, Spanish people are setting up their own businesses as the more traditional options for career advancement shrink."
    Will Spain send SOS today?
    Rajoy: No decision yet on request for aid.  
   
Spanish unemployment hits all-time high.  
   
Spain 2-year yield plunges; 10-year holds above 7%.  
   
Peter Brimelow reports that the China letter shows signs of life.  

    State of the Markets articles include:     
    What's Really Behind The Rally?  "Everyone has seen that the jobs report came in better than expected. Everybody knows that Spain has now admitted they have a problem and needs help. But what you may not know is... ... Read More »"
    U.S. Job Growth Improves in July.  "While most of the attention has been placed on the action (or lack thereof) from the world's central bankers this week, the state of the jobs market appears to have improved last month as the economy ... Read More »"   
    Dragging Their Feet? Or....  "Many analysts have opined that last week's three-day joyride to the upside, during which the DJIA spurted more than 450 points higher, was based on (a) the hope that the European Central Bank would quit dinking around and finally do something about the spike in interest rates that is threatening the Eurozone and (b) the idea that the Fed would soon drop the flag on another Risk-On trade in stocks, emerging markets, and commodities. And with both Super Mario and Helicopter Ben having dropped some pretty big hints that something ... Read More »"
    Draghi Says Bond Buying Plans Being Developed  "Stocks initially sold off hard at the open of trading on Thursday in response to a lack of action taken by the ECB. However, ECB President Draghi seemed to assure reporters that plans were in the ... Read More »"
   
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Services Sector) Improves in July.  
   
Quote, Unquote: Super Mario Marinates Some Muppet Meat.  
    Market Mover: Spain Rumored to Ask for Aid.
    European Services PMI Improve Modestly.
    China's Services PMI Pulls Back in July.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    This week, the markets have continued to present a rising sawtooth profile (please see the two-year charts below)..


2012-8-2: (Thursday Night): The markets fell yet again today: Fourth day down, Stocks end in the red after Draghi disappoints. The NASDAQ Composite shed another 10.44 points (-0.36%) to end at 2,909.77. The Dow declined a further 92.18 points (-0.71%) to close at 12,878.88; the S&P 500 dipped another 10.32 points (-0.75%) to settle at 1,365.00. Oil closed down at  87.43: Oil trades lower after Draghi disappoints; Gold ended at 1,594: Gold under $1,600 as Draghi offers no plan. The VIX fell 1.39 to 17.57.
    "Major indexes are lower but taper losses on disappointment over the ECB president's conditional efforts to tackle the European debt crisis."
     "
U.S. stocks ended Thursday in the red, but off the lows of the day, after investors were disappointed by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's failure to announce concrete plans to help solve Europe's debt crisis. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Draghi fails to back up the talk.  "The European Central Bank's president leaves investors grasping in vain for details (First Take)"
    Text of Draghi's opening statement.  
    Draghi: ECB ready but governments must act
    ECB and Bank of England stand pat on rates.  
    Will Bundesbank win facedown vs. Draghi?  
    China's People's Bank Of China seeks stability.  "The People's Bank of China says it will make stabilizing growth a bigger priority, signaling rising concern over the world's No. 2 economy."  
    Kevin Marder notes that Institutional investors exit growth stocks.  
    Thomas Kee, Jr., claims that Central banks can't stop the weakness.
    Silver: How low can it go?  
    Global state of delusion  "Faith and fantasy seem to be sustaining the view that a worldwide recovery is indeed achievable, writes former banker and author Satyajit Das."
  

    State of the Markets articles include:     
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market.   
    The "Bernanke Put" Will Return.  "In case you are not familiar, the term "Bernanke Put" refers to the idea that if things get bad enough in the stock market, owners of equities will always be able to "put" their shares onto Ben Bernanke at some point. Well, not literally of course. However, history has shown that whenever things get ugly - I mean really ugly - the Fed's cavalry has always mounted their white horses and come to the rescue with plans to stimulate the economy, which, of course, caused stock prices to improve. To be fair, it wasn't always called the Bernanke Put. Before Gentle Ben's declaration that he ... Read More »"
    Draghi Says Bond Buying Plans Being Developed  "Stocks initially sold off hard at the open of trading on Thursday in response to a lack of action taken by the ECB. However, ECB President Draghi seemed to assure reporters that plans were in the ... Read More »"
   
ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged; All Eyes on Draghi's Press Conference  
   
Despite High Expectations, Draghi Doesn't Deliver  
    Factory Orders Miss The Mark in June
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Pulls Back Again
    Week Jobless Claims Remain in Recent Range.  
    Challenger Planned Job Cuts Lowest of Year.   
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are flat tonight.


2012-8-1: (Wednesday Night): The markets fell again today: Stocks hold off for Europe, Stocks falter after Fed, eyes on ECB. The NASDAQ Composite fell another 19.31 points (-0.66%) to end at 2,820.21. The Dow dropped 32.55 points (-0.25%) to close at 12,976.13; the S&P 500 backpedaled 4 points (-0.43%) to settle at 1,375.32. Oil closed down at  88.88: Oil ends higher on supply drop, brushes off Fed; Gold ended at 1,603: Gold ends lower; silver leads losses among metals. The VIX rose 0.03 to 18.96.
    "Markets end lower after Fed holds pat on policy. "The fireworks are tomorrow," says equity strategist Jim Russell on expected ECB move."
     "
U.S. stocks edged lower Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left its economic policies unchanged, dashing hopes for more stimulus measures. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Fed won't add to stimulus.  "U.S. central bank downgrades economic outlook but leaves interest rate targets unchanged."
    How to keep the young unemployed. "Various Washington policies have left those most in need of workplace experience sidelined and excluded, writes Diana Furchtgott-Roth in Commentary."
    Buy farms and food.  "So argues money manager Jeremy Grantham, who says a "global food crisis" is unlikely to ebb anytime soon."
    ADP: 163,000 private-sector jobs in July.  
    Thomas Kee, Jr., claims that Central banks can't stop the weakness.
    Michael Gayed predicts Silver set to rally amid forced reflation.  
    Four signs your investment is a Ponzi.
    Matthew Lynn advises us that It’s time to buy burnt-out European stocks.  
    Bundesbank rains on Draghi’s ambitions.  
    Al Lewis concludes: The depression is here — it’s just invisible.  
    When global investors stay home.
    Mark Hulbert asks Are we in a Kids’ Market?
  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Fed Takes No Action But "Will" If Data Worsens.  "As was largely expected, the FOMC did not make any changes to monetary policy on Wednesday. There was no new quantitative easing program, no extension of the ZIRP, and no extension of Operation Twist. However, the Fed’s statement did contain one hint that additional stimulus could be forthcoming in the near term. The key was a very subtle change of wording in the FOMC statement released Wednesday. On June 20th, the Fed statement read: “The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to ... Read More »"
    While We Wait...  "In light of the fact that the world is waiting on word from the U.S. Federal Reserve today and then the ECB tomorrow as to whether or not more stimulative measures are going to be forthcoming, we thought it would be an appropriate time to review what to (and what not to) expect from the world's most influential central bankers. In addition, we thought that this might be a good time to check in on the status of our major market models. In other words, we needed something to occupy ... Read More »"
    Will This Time Be Different? (I'm Just Asking)  "ProTrader manager Curtis Bergquist offers up his view on the global macro environment. And in short, things aren't looking so hot to him. Here's the reason's why... ... Read More »"
    Construction Spending Continues to Expand in June
    ISM Manufacturing Index Stays Weak in July; Supports Stimulus Case.  
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Sticking with Stocks.  
    Investors Intelligence- Bullish Sentiment Dips.    
    ADP Employment Report Surprises To Upside in July.  
    Eurozone PMI's Confirms Ongoing Contraction.  
    Trouble in Motor City? 
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2012-7-31: (Tuesday Night): The markets declined somewhat again today: Down day dents July gains, Stocks: Investors hit pause ahead of Fed, ECB. The NASDAQ Composite fell another 6.32 points (-0.21%) to end at 2,839.52. The Dow dropped 64,33 points (-0.49%) to close at 13,008.68; the S&P 500 backpedaled 5.98 points (-0.43%) to settle at 1,379.32. Oil closed down at  88.16: Oil futures turn lower, gain 4% for month; Gold ended at 1,619: Gold ends lower, holds to modest monthly advance. The VIX rose 0.90 to 18.93.
    "Stock indexes fell Tuesday, but July still comes in a winner, marking a second straight month of market gains. Europe pessimism took its toll."
     "
U.S. stocks closed down slightly Tuesday amid another day of cautious trading ahead of meetings by U.S. and European central bankers. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Europe fears hit Street.  "U.S. stocks tilt lower as optimism that Europe will take bold steps to curb the debt crisis subsides."
    Bundesbank says ECB should focus on prices. "Germany's central bank wants monetary policy in the euro zone to remain strictly focused on price stability, with members with fiscal problems utilizing fiscal instruments."
    Draghi leaves room for ECB disappointment.  
    Germany returns to Realpolitik in euro crisis.
    Jamie Dimon's next apology?  
    Bond king Bill Gross may be stocks’ best buddy  
    McMillan on the hated bull market  
    Europe, politics hamper recovery: Geithner  
    Kevin Marder notes that: Stocks idle before data deluge.  
    Picture yourself at the Fed  ""
    Fed's likely to bide its time  "FOMC will hold off from launching a new stimulus plan for the economy, in order to get a better handle on the outlook, economists say."
    Consumer-confidence gauge rises in July.  
    Spending falls in June.  
    Home prices jump.  
    Congress has budget deal  "Stopgap spending measure that will fund the government for six months has agreement from Senate and House leaders, Sen. Reid says."
    What a Romney win would mean for markets.  
    Farrell: Real crash is dead ahead
    David Weidner writes: Why being bad is better on Wall Street. 
    Irwin Kellner discusses Living in a Catch-22 economy
  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market.  
    Will Europe Be Fixed?  "Although the DJIA and S&P 500 remain just a rumor or two away from their respective high-water marks for the current bull market cycle that began on March 9, 2009, the global macro backdrop remains dour. The central theme for those seeing the glass as half empty these days is based on the ideas that (a) growth is slowing in the good 'ol USofA, China and India, and (b) that the sovereign debt crisis is going to end badly. As ... Read More »"
    Apple Spikes For Third Day - What Gives?
    Consumer Confidence Perks Up in July, But... 
    Chicago PMI Headline BTE better than expected), But Employment Dives.  
    Case-Shiller Home Price Index Down Again.  
    Personal Income Up Nicely, Spending Flat in June.    
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are mixed again tonight.


2012-7-30: (Monday Night): The markets dipped minutely today: 3rd straight rally falls short, Investors await central bank action. The NASDAQ Composite fell back 12.25 points (-0.41&) to end at 2,845.84. The Dow eased 2.65 points (-0.02%) to close at 13,073.01; the S&P 500 retreated 0.67 points (-0.05%) to settle at 1,385.30. Oil closed down at  89.74: Oil ends marginally lower; natural gas rallies; Gold ended at 1,625: Gold extends gains to fourth session. The VIX rose 1/33 to 18.03.
    "There's little Monday follow-up on last week's buying, but losses are muted by up days for Apple and Cisco. Dow gives up just 3 points."
     "
Investors were unwilling to make any big bets Monday, waiting to see if there will be further stimulus announced by U.S. and European central bankers later this week. More"   
    Note that there isn't a single article about the Eurozone tonight. "All's quiet on the Western Front."

    Marketwatch says: 
    This stock-market trend is a bullish sign.
    Michael gayed notes that Inverse ‘Summer Crash’ takes shape.
    Prepare yourselves for larger market whipsaws.  
    Treasurys edge up before Fed, ECB meetings.  
    Peter Brimelow asks: Is gold getting ready for take-off?  
    Asia readies for QE3 roller coaster . 
    Only small steps this month.  "A new stimulus plan will be on hold, but Chairman Ben Bernanke may have the Fed poised to take small measures to hold rates low this week.
    Rex Nutting proffers Five lessons for Bernanke
  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market.  
    Buying the Rumor(s).  "On July 15th, my morning missive was entitled Nobody Wants to Miss Out. After six consecutive down days, during which time investors had been treated to any number of negative headlines on the state of the U.S. economy, the weakening outlook in China, the latest Li(e)bor scandal, as well as the never ending debt crisis facing Europe, the market had spiked higher - on a Friday the 13th no less. If you recall, this particular joyride to the upside was triggered by comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who had told an audience that the "another policy decision looms" and that the FOMC could indeed take further action before the current round of Operation ... Read More »"
    Rates Decline at Italian Bond Auction
    Eurozone Confidence Indices Continue to Suffer.
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes -- July 29, 2012  
    Earnings? What Earnings?  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are mixed tonight.


2012-7-27: (Friday Night): The markets jumped again today: Euro-zone hopes aid stocks, Dow hits 13,000 as stocks rally. The NASDAQ Composite expanded 64.84 points (-2.24%) to end at 2,893.25. The Dow leaped 187.73 points (1.45%) to close at 13,075.66; the S&P 500 retreated 25.95 points (1.91%) to settle at 1,385.97. Oil closed up at  90.26: Oil gains on Europe, stimulus-talk hopes; Gold hopped up to 1,627: Gold settles higher on euro optimism. The VIX fell 0.83 to 16.70.
    "U.S. stocks rally, with S&P 500 index joining the Dow in positive turf for the week, after Germany and France jointly pledge to protect he euro zone."
     "
U.S. stocks rallied Friday on hopes that central banks in Europe and the United States will take steps to support the economy. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    Stocks gain 1%-2% in week  "Triple-digit gains for Dow and S&P extend into second session after comments out of Europe."
    Merkel, Hollande vow to 'protect' euro zone.
    Geithner to meet with top European leaders  
    China flexes muscle with Cnooc deal for Nexen  
    Europe stocks rise on ECB bond-buying report.  
    S&P affirms United Kingdom's triple-A rating.  
    U.S. growth slows to 1.5% in second quarter. 
    Sentiment edges up
    July consumer sentiment at lowest point of year.
    Is Blankfein right about the U.S.?
 
  Michael Gayed writes: Central-bank paranoia returns.
  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Market Mover- Draghi, Weidmann Talking New Crisis Measures.  "Stocks surged to the highs of the day Friday afternoon on word that Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold talks prior to next week’s ECB meeting in order to discuss new measures to combat the European sovereign debt crisis. In short, the move in stocks appears to have been underpinned by expectations for the ECB to offer an aggressive policy response to the latest flare-up in the Eurozone sovereign debt ... Read More »"
    US Economic Growth Rate Slows in Q2.  "The nation's economy slowed in the second quarter to the weakest rate since the second quarter of 2011. Analysts had expected growth to slow and the report was actually ... Read More »"
    University of Michigan Sentiment Perks Up a Bit.
    Is There a New Chairman at the Federal Reserve?  
    ECB Reportedly Readying Plans to Buy Italian/Spanish Bonds  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    The markets are slowly, slowly working their way up.


2012-7-26: (Thursday Night): The markets jumped today after remarks by the European Central Bank's Mario Draghi: Dow surges back to black, Stocks hold strong rally. The NASDAQ Composite expanded 39.01 points (-1.37%) to end at 2,893.25. The Dow soared 211.88 points (-0.79%) to close at 12,721.46; the S&P 500 retreated 12.14 points (1.67%) to settle at 1,360.02. Oil eased down to 89.14: Oil futures rise on Draghi’s euro pledge; Gold hopped up to 1,617: Gold rises a second day on Draghi’s euro vow. The VIX fell 1.81 to 17.53
    "Stocks soar after comments from ECB's Draghi and after some positive U.S. data reports."
     "
Hope for a real solution to Europe's ailing economy lifted U.S. stocks Thursday, after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said the central bank would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    ECB bond buys are back on table.  "Mario Draghi says European Central Bank will do "whatever it takes" to preserve currency."
    Europe rallies on Draghi. 
    Spain yield below 7%.  
    Euro jumps as ECB’s Draghi pledges to save it.  
    GDP preview: The economy in charts.
    Japan deflating faster.  "Japan's deflation accelerates in June, making the Bank of Japan more likely to ease further and sending the yen briefly lower." 
    Japan's retail sales worsen in June  
    Asia rallies on Europe hope.  "Asia markets rise, matching sharp U.S. gains, as investors cheer an apparent pledge from the European Central Bank to keep euro zone intact."
    Jon Markman anticipates More trouble as funds abandon euro banks.  "When formulating economic policy, we must first take care of our short-run needs before we can deal with those of the long run, writes Irwin Kellner."
  
   QE3: Two reasons why it's different this time.  
   
Kevin Marder writes that Stocks flounder amid institutional dumping.
    Darrell Delamaide notes that New disclosures cloud Geithner’s record.
    Mark Hulbert tells how A contrarian handicaps the election..
   
Peru, Colombia forge ahead in Latin America.  "Young populations, growing middle classes and dynamic economic expansion are helping Colombia and Peru attract more investment."
   
Matthew Lynn says 4 flash points make this August a hot one.  
   
Look to the hammer and nail, lads.  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market.  
    Draghi Says ECB Will Do 'Whatever It Takes' To Save Euro.  "Reuters highlighted dovish comments Thursday from ECB President Mario Draghi who, while speaking at an investment conference in London, gave the markets hope that the central bank is ready to spring into action to fight the growing European sovereign debt crisis. Draghi said that the central bank will do whatever is necessary to protect the ... Read More »"
    Pending Home Sales Pull Back in June.
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Heading Wrong Direction.  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 35K.  
    Going For The Gold.  "The Olympic games kicked off this week amidst the weakest economy in the UK since 2009. However, this doesn't mean there aren't a host of interesting tidbits about the games available this week ... Read More »"
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are neutral tonight.


2012-7-23: (Monday Night): The markets plunged again today: Stocks get Greco-Spanish flu, Skittish investors hold stocks lower. The NASDAQ Composite careened 35.15 points (-1.20%) to end at 2,890.15. The Dow dove 111.11 points (-0.79%) to close at 12,721.46; the S&P 500 retreated 12.14 points (-0.89%) to settle at 1,350.52. Oil eased down to 88.66: Europe sends oil tumbling; Gold lost a little to 1,577.40: Gold ends lower on concerns about Europe. The VIX rose 02.35 to 18.62
    "Dow industrials have their first consecutive triple-digit point loss since April as investors worry about the ability of Spain and Greece to manage their debts."
     "
Stocks pared losses on Monday, but all three indexes still closed lower as worries that Spain may need a full-blown bailout sparked a global sell-off. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    More bad Mondays ahead.  "Monday’s triple-digit Dow decline was not an aberration. On the contrary, writes Mark Hulbert, the market will not be able to mount a sustainable rally until the Wall of Worry gets rebuilt."
    U.S. stocks drop again as Europe fear mounts.  
    Cisco laying off 2% of its workforce.  
    Moody's warns on Germany.  "Ratings agency lowers the outlook on Germany's triple-A rating to negative due to mounting uncertainties from the euro-zone debt crisis. Moody's also cuts outlooks on the Netherlands and Luxembourg."
    Budget deficit should be bigger  "When formulating economic policy, we must first take care of our short-run needs before we can deal with those of the long run, writes Irwin Kellner."
 
   Asia softens despite data.  "Most Asia stocks markets fall as fresh worries about Europe drain investor confidence, though some losses moderate after China data."
   
China factories revive but still weak, data show"China's manufacturing activity gets its strongest reading since February, according to preliminary HSBC data, though sector remains in contraction."
   
Kevin Marder writes that Stocks get socked and cash is king.  "
    Bond action does not bode well for stocks.
    The bear-market rally has ended.
    Paul Farrell explains that Water is the new gold, a big commodity bet.
  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market.  
    Mucking Up The Works.  "Up until Friday, the path forward appeared to be fairly clear for the bulls. Although the argument being offered was well worn, it was also fairly straightforward as our heroes in horns suggested that stocks were a buy due to the likelihood of the Fed cavalry once again coming to the rescue of the economy if things soured going forward. The bulls have been arguing that if the economy weakens, the Fed will come in with more stimulus, which will create another big "risk on" opportunity for traders. And then if the economy improves, the ... Read More »"
    Let's Look at Spain and Europe.  "It looks like "risk off" is the key at the present time as the European debt crisis is back in a big way. However, this isn't exactly surprising to me as I've been negative on the situation for some ... Read More »"
    HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI Improves.  
    Moody's Cuts Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg Rating Outlooks.  
    Fed Update: Williams Says Further Action Needed.
    Spain Bans Short Selling in All Stocks.  
    IMF May Cut Off Aid to Greece Following ECB Move.  
    Chinese Stocks Dive On Report of Further Slowdown.  
    Yields Soar in Spain and Italy as Crisis Worsens.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are neutral tonight.


2012-7-20: (Friday Night): The markets plummeted today:  Stocks' July gains gone, U.S. stocks slide 1%, financials drag. The NASDAQ Composite careered 40.6 points (-1.37%) to end at 2,925.30. The Dow dove 120.79 points (-0.93%) to close at 12,822.57; the S&P 500 retreated 13.85 points (-1.01%) to settle at 1,362.66. Oil moved up to 92.20: Oil snaps winning streak, but up 5% on week; Gold gained a little to 1,583: Gold ends higher; copper the top loser. The VIX fell 0.82 to 16.27
    "GE and Microsoft earnings show struggle to grow revenue in slowing global economy, but it's blue-chip financials dragging on the Dow."
     "
After three days of gains, U.S. stocks fell Friday, as a mixed bag of corporate news and ongoing debt problems in Europe prompted investors to take some money off the table. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. stocks fall as Europe fear overrides earnings.  
    Treasurys strengthen as Spain worries grow.  
    Brazilian stocks fall on rekindled Europe worries  
    Safer with Dodd-Frank?  "Banks are ramping up compliance, regulators are drafting copious new rules — and many analysts still doubt that the financial system is any more stable than it was after the 2008 financial crisis."

    Howard Gold observes that Volatility just ain't what it used to be.
    Food inflation fears grow as corn jumps to record.
    Credit pact lays new charges on consumers
  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    GE Beats EPS Estimate But Misses on Revenues.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    There's not a lot on the wires tonight.


2012-7-19: (Thursday Night): The markets rose again today:  Stocks hang on to black, Stocks 'stuck in limbo'. The NASDAQ Composite jumped 23.3 points (0.79%) to end at 2,965.90. The Dow advanced 34.66 points (0.27%) to close at 12,943.36; the S&P 500 rose 3.73 points (0.27%) to settle at 1,376.51. Oil moved up to 92.20: Oil leaps to 7-week highs; Gold gained a little to 1,581: Gold trades higher. The VIX fell 0.71 to 15.45
    "Major indexes seesaw with earnings from IBM, others weighed against anemic economic data."
     "
U.S. stocks held modest gains Thursday as investors weighed the latest corporate results against signs of economic weakness. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    THOMAS H. KEE JR.
    Thomas Kee, Jr., writes: A bearish strategy for a bull market.  
     Kevin Marder notes that Stocks scale wall of worry.  
      
   
Oil bears were wrong  "Crude futures rise about 3%, advancing past the $90-a-barrel level, on their way to clinch a seventh day of gains on upbeat equity markets and data showing a decline in inventories."
    German parliament backs Spain bank aid.
    Earnings boost Europe stocks.
    The EU's struggles.  
    Philly factory activity stays weak in July.
    Sales of existing homes drop 5.4% in June.  
   
Leading economic index declines in June.
    U.S. weekly jobless claims shoot back up   
    Youngsters should buy bonds now, stocks later    
    Lawrence Macmillan says: In focus: Pessimism continues.  
    U.S. job gains need to nudge housing  
    Darrell Delamaide is leaving Marketwatch to become Editor-in-Chief of USA Today: My final salute to MarketWatch.  "David Callaway, who is leaving marketwatch after the markets close on Friday, looks back on his 13 years at the helm of this financial-news site."
    How FDR won re-election with 8% jobless rate  "Barack Obama is trying to become the first president to win re-election with an unemployment rate above 8%. So how did Franklin Roosevelt do it in 1936 and 1940? (Political Watch)"
    Offshoring, misunderstood 
    Manufacturers press for lowering tax rate  

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    It's Not About the Reason; It's About...  "I'm not exactly sure why network executives think they need to have bottle-blond former models or actresses with foreign accents reading teleprompters on the market channels these days. To be honest, I don't know of a single professional investor that tunes into a particular station to watch the "talent." And then when the usually less-than ... Read More »"
    Google Beats on Top and Bottom Lines
    Microsoft Earnings Beat Estimates; Stock Higher
    Philly Fed Index Down Again In July.
    US Leading Economic Index Falls Again in June.  
    Existing Home Sales Fall in June.  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Pulls Back.  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Up Sharply.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are flat tonight.


2012-7-18: (Wednesday Night): The markets rose again today:  Stocks rally for a 2nd day., Tech shares lead broad stock advance. The NASDAQ Composite jumped 32.56 points (1.12%) to end at 2,942.60. The Dow advanced 103.08 points (0.80%) to close at 12,908.62; the S&P 500 rose 9.11 points (0.67%) to settle at 1,372.78. Oil moved up to 89.844: Oil swells to seven-week high; Gold slipped a little to 1,575: Gold retreats for third day; copper gains. The VIX fell 0.70 to 15.78
    "Undeterred by a slightly weaker Fed Beige Book, stocks move higher with technology shares in the lead"
   
"U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday as investors focused on better-than-expected corporate results and testimony from the chairman of the Federal Reserve. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    U.K. stock index up as unemployment falls  
    Bernanke doesn’t expect double-dip recession.  "Fed chief says he doesn’t expect the economy to slide back into recession. He held the door open for more easing but made no commitments."
    Beige Book shows spreading U.S. slowdown.  "More Fed districts report that the economy in their regions is losing steam."
   
Dollar, Treasury yields stay down after Beige Book  
    ‘Lie’-bor, or the art of the lie and your money.   This is a compnaion article to David Weidner's article last night about the meaning of the  LIBOR scandal.
    Michael Gayed advises that Bond-to-stock switch can still flip.
    Credit-card pact no deal for consumers.  "The $7 billion settlement, if approved, sends a strong message to consumers: Buck up and plan on paying for the privilege of using a credit card."
    Housing starts up; recovery years away.  
    10 threats real estate faces.  "Concerns include
an aging population, changing demands for office and retail space and student-debt burdens.
"

      

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    The Path Forward.  "Lots of folks are talking about the idea that the stock market is experiencing a case of déjà vu all over again at the present time. Given the similar chart patterns seen over the past two summers, the eerily familiar soft patch facing the economy once again, the similarities in the factors driving the action, and the general feeling that for the third summer in a row the outlook doesn't look very bright, I can't really blame anyone who might be looking ahead to the ... Read More »"
    The Soap Opera at Procter & Gamble  "There is definitely some drama going on at Procter & Gamble. CEO Robert McDonald has come under fire and activist investor Bill Ackman has even picked up a few shares to get into the game... ... Read More »"
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Staying Long
    Housing Starts and Building Permits Mixed in June.
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Declines Slightly  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are up 0.2% tonight.


2012-7-17: (Tuesday Night): The markets fell a little today:  Putting a pop into stocks; Stocks hold on to rally. The NASDAQ Composite rebounded 13.10 points (0.45%) to end at 2,910.04. The Dow advanced 78.33 points (0.62%) to close at 12,805.54; the S&P 500 rose 10.03 points (0.74%) to settle at 1,363.67 Oil moved up to 88.94: Oil futures rally on dollar, Bernanke; Gold was basically unchanged at 1583: Gold ends lower. The VIX fell 0.52 to 16.58.
    "Stock indexes did close off their lows as the euro improved against the dollar."
   
"Solid results from Coca-Cola and Goldman Sachs lift markets as focus turns from Fed to earnings"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    Rex Nutting warns 'QE3' won't stop fiscal cliff.  "Additional quantitative easing would be pointless, writes Rex Nutting. The U.S. economy still faces two major risks, and there's nothing Fed chief Bernanke or the Federal Reserve can do about it. (First Take)"
    Pessimistic Bernanke doesn’t commit to action
    Full text of Bernanke's testimony.  
    Farrell warns on Bernanke and wealth destruction   
    Builder confidence rises.  "Home-builder trade group's sentiment survey climbs to highest since March 2007."
    Lower energy costs curb retail-level inflation  
    Industrial production rises 0.4% in June  
    Irwin Kellner: Where did economic policy go wrong?
    Michael Farr: Help needed from Congress (audio)  
    David Weidner: Ignore Libor scandal at your own risk.  This is a stunning exposé. David Weidner is pointing out that for the past seven years, banks have been rigging the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR)... the benchmark rate that sets global interest rates. During this period, the banks have been in a position to profit by trading on their insider knowledge. Now, Bob Diamond, the responsible CEO, has been let off with a slap on the wrist, and, I would presume, a wealthy future.
    Kevin Marder: 4 steps back, 3 forward 
    Michael Ashbaugh's column: Charting the bull-bear battleground.  
    Is Gross wrong about recession?.   
    State budget crises to last  "Even if the U.S. economy rebounds the financial woes facing many states will linger indefinitely."
    Barclays: 10-year Treasury to hit 1.25%.  Basically, what Barclay's is predicting is either deflation or an ever more desperate flight to safety.
    U.S. yields up from near record low after Bernanke.  The record low on the 10-year Treasury bond is about 1.43%.
    Mark Hulbert advises us to Ignore the news headlines!  "It’s been nearly one year since the unthinkable happened: The U.S. government’s credit rating was downgraded. Mark Hulbert looks at what we’ve learned in the past 12 months."
      

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Diametrically Opposed.  "It is often said that a disagreement between opposing sides is what "makes a market." What's especially interesting about this concept in the stock market is the fact that although there are two clearly defined teams in the game, oftentimes the expectation each has with regard to the future doesn't vary to any great degree. However at this point in time, the lines are clearly drawn and our two teams are diametrically opposed in their view as to what is likely to transpire next. Given that by definition the bulls ... Read More »"
    Bernanke Says Economy Decelerating But Offers No Hints on QE
    NAHB Homebuilder Confidence Index Moves Up in July 
    Industrial Production Above, Capacity Utilization Below Expectations in June
    CPI Report Shows Inflation Flat in June.   
    Eurozone ZEW Index Stays Weak.  
    German ZEW Confidence Index Slides Again in July  
    Yields Fall At Spanish T-Bill Auction  
    Coca Cola Report Beats Consensus  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are down a little tonight.


2012-7-16: (Monday Night): The markets fell a little today:  Dow, S&P 500 end lower for 7th seesion in 8; Stocks end in the red after weak retail sales. The NASDAQ Composite rlipped 11.53 points (0.40%) to end at 2,896.94. The Dow retreated 48.88 points (-0.39%) to close at 12,727.21; the S&P 500 gave up 3.14 points (-0.23%) to settle at 1,353.64 Oil jumped (yet again) to 88.20: Oil futures rally on dollar, Bernanke; Gold was basically unchanged at 1588: Gold ends lower, seen confined to range. The VIX rose 0.37 to 17.11.
    "Stock indexes did close off their lows as the euro improved against the dollar."
   
"U.S. stocks finished lower Monday as investors moved into Treasuries, sending the 10-year yield to a record low, following disappointing June retail sales data. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    Retail miss hitting stocks.  "Weak retail sales data and more worries from Europe drag on U.S. stocks. Citi shares rise."
    Coal stocks collapse.
    Treasury yields near lows.  
    Does Romney believe in capitalism? Obama?   "Obama and Romney are beating each other up over outsourcing, but both know it’s the essence of our market economy, writes Rex Nutting."
    U. S. retail sales drop 0.5%.  
    Beemer: don't look for relief in retail sales (audio)  
    Manufacturing rebounds a bit in New York  
    IMF trims global forecast  "The global economy is weak and is facing significant downside risks, according to the IMF."
    David Marsh: Grimm tale from Eurozone.  
    Craig Stephen: China deflation threatens profit.  
    Pockets of strength aren't enough (video)  "The Great Plains and Midwest are rebounding from the recession faster, but economists say their recoveries aren't enough to lift the rest of the U.S. economy.
    Avi Gilbert says: The stock market is building a top.   
    Michael Gayed observes: Walmart indicator goes critical.
    J.P. Morgan accused of pushing own funds.  
    Economists slash U.S. GDP forecasts 
    Ben Bernanke, the dove  "Financial markets could cheer
up this week given what the Federal Reserve chief is likely to say about central bank's accommodating policy.
"
    Moody's lowers ratings at 13 Italian banks  
      

    State of the Markets articles include:      
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market.  
    Nobody Wants To Miss Out  "I'm guessing that many investors were likely left scratching their heads on Friday. After six straight down days, during which time the sentiment toward the global macro view went from bad to worse, an impressive blast higher occurred on Friday. Out of nowhere and on no news to speak of, the Dow surged 204 points. The move erased fully four days of losses in a single session (with the majority of the rally coming in the first 35 minutes Friday ... Read More>>"
    Business Inventories Up +0.3% in May 
    Empire Manufacturing Index Improves in July
    Retail Sales Numbers Disapppoint in June.   
    Citi's EPS Beats Expectations But Revenues Light.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are up 0.4% tonight.


2012-7-13: (Friday Night): The markets reversed sharply today: Banks lift stocks out of red; Stocks rally 1.5%. The NASDAQ Composite regained 42.28 points (1.48%) to end at 2,908.47. The Dow advanced 203.76 points (1.62%) to close at 12,777.01; the S&P 500 vaulted 22.01 points (1.65%) to settle at 1,356.77. Oil jumped (again) to 87.26: Oil ends higher, gains more than 3% on week; Gold hopped up to 1589: Gold ends higher, breaks string of losses. The VIX rose 0.10 to 20.29.
    "A strong market surge led by bank shares clears out the week's losses and puts stocks firmly on track to end their longest losing run since May."
   
"U.S. stocks rallied Friday, with the Dow and S&P 500 on track to snap a six-day losing streak, as JPMorgan Chase reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings despite a trading loss of $5.8 billion so far this year. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    Detrick: Expectations down, stocks on way up.
    Atlanta Fed's Lockhart hints at QE3 support.
    Financials in a frenzy.  
    Is J.P. Morgan too big?  "The huge trading loss by the nation's No. 1 bank highlights whether banks should be allowed to be so big that they imperil the whole financial system, and thus 'too big to fail,' and perhaps 'too big to manage?'"
    Loss from soured trades balloons to $5.8 billion  
    Size of bank's to save CEO  
    How 2012's top money ideas have fared so far  "Midyear checkup of 10 investment themes reveals some hits and misses."
    Don't give up on stocks.  
    The week in charts: Chicken or egg?  
    Howard Gold: Enjoy the rallies while they last  
    Michael Gayed addresses: Mini-correction sequel and the bear paradox.
    Brett Arends points out Romney's 'unforgivable' planning mistake (video).  
    Mark Hulbert says: Intelligent bet remains on gold.  
    Treasurys fall for first day in seven  
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Fed's Lockhart Says A Decision Looms  "Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who is a voting member of the FOMC this year, says that another policy decision by the Federal Reserve is in the wings ... Read More »"
    China's GDP Growth Rate Continues to Slow  "The world's second biggest and arguably the most important economy at the present time continued to slow down in the second quarter of 2012. The gov't reported that GDP growth ... Read More »"
    It's a Dirty Bird That Fouls Its Own Nest - Part II  "PI was joking with Dave M. last week that he had to post my piece on the most recent scandals in the financial industry within the hour or a new one might pop up and the story would be out of date. Well, that did not happen that day but only a day or two later we had another couple of new ones. The first involves a mid-sized futures broker, PFG Best, which is being accused by the CFTC of fraud and misuse of client ... Read More »"
    Thoughts From The Bear Camp: I'm Fading This Move.  
    University of Michigan Sentiment Continues to Fall.  
    Producer Price Index Above Expectations in June.  
    Italy's Bond Auction Deemed Successful.  
    JPMorgan's Profit Drops on Whale Trade Losses.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    The Dow and the S&p 500 broke even for the week, while the NASDAQ lost 1%. With higher lows and higher highs, the indices seem to be recovering from their 1st-of-June lows (see below).


2012-7-12: (Thursday Night): The markets retrenched again today: 6th down day for stocks; Stocks falter on global growth fears, earnings. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 21.79 points (-0.75%) to end at 2,866.19. The Dow declined 31.26 points (-0.25%) to close at 12,573.27; the S&P 500 sank 6.69 points (-0.50%) to settle at 1,334.76. Oil jumped to 85.82: Oil rebounds; U.S. imposes more Iran sanctions; Gold inched down to 1570: Gold ends lower, other metals post gains. The VIX rose 0.38 to 18.05.
    "Market "wrestles with economic data that aren't strong but not weak enough" for Fed stimulus."
   
"U.S. stocks fell Thursday as fears about a global economic slowdown and disappointing corporate results weighed on the market. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    6th down day for stocks.  "Market "wrestles with economic data that aren't strong but not weak enough" for Fed stimulus."
    .Buffett: Economy's flatlined  "The U.S. economy has tempered but is doing better than most other large economies in the world, says billionaire Warren Buffett in interview."
    Jobless claims drop to four-year low.  
    U.S. posts $60 billion deficit in June.  
     Romney on defense over Bain Capital
    Brett Arends points out Romney's 'unforgivable' planning mistake (video).  
    Paul Krugman presents Permanent Link to The Long Run History of Taxes on the Rich.  
    He also writes about Permanent Link to Plutocrats on Parade.  

    Kathleen Madigan writes: Falling trade gap is in rear-view mirror.  
    Peter Brimelow writes: Problems, but no panic.  
    Darrell Delamaide observes: Germans trapped in conservative culture.
    Singapore GDP contracts  "Singapore's economy unexpectedly shrank 1.1% in the second quarter from preceding three months due to weakness in the manufacturing sector."
    China's second quarter GDP growth cools to 7.6%    
    Bank of Korea cuts 2012 GDP outlook, again  
    Bill Gross bets on Mexico  
    30-year-mortgage rate falls to record low of 3.56%  
    U.S. sells 30-year bonds at record-low yield 

      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    Do The Bulls Still Have a Case?  "Stocks have been down five days in a row. 'Sell in May and go away' is working yet again. The news out of Europe just seems to get worse with each passing day. (Does Germany's high court seriously need 3 months to decide whether the ESM is legal? After all, the ESM has been being kicked around for like 15 straight summits.) China's economy is slowing (but of course, the degree of the slowdown is ... Read More »"
    Does Any of This Sound Familiar?  "PRO Trader manager Curt Bergquist takes a look at some of the consensus expectations in this market and suggests that some of this is starting to sound familiar - and not in a good way ... Read More »"
    Moody's Downgrades Italy's Sovereign Debt.  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Holds Steady.  
    Import and Export Prices Decline Again in June.  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Improve 26K.  
    Yields Drop at Italian T-Bill Auction.  
            
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are flat again tonight.


2012-7-11: (Wednesday Night): The markets drooped a little farther  today: Stocks recover, still suffer ; Stocks sink after Fed avoids QE3 hints. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 14.35 points (-0.49%) to end at 2,887.98. The Dow declined 48.59 points (-0.38%) to close at 12,604.53; the S&P 500 adjusted 0.02 points (-0.00%) to settle at 1,341.45. Oil jumped to 86.10: Oil ends higher on inventories report; adjusted to 1574: Gold ends lower, other metals post gains. The VIX fell 0.68 to 18.05.
    "Stocks hit session lows as industrials and resource stocks take a hit, and concerns about Europe deepen."
   
"U.S. stocks turned sharply lower Wednesday afternoon, after the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting offered no new hints that another round of quantitative easing would be coming anytime soon. More"   

    Marketwatch says: 
    Fed unnerves stock market.  "Dow gets knocked over 100 points after investors fail to fine a firmer read from the Federal Reserve on additional stimulus."
    Few ready for more easing.  "Fed minutes from the June meeting show few officials supported more quantitative easing."
    Highlights of the Fed minutes.  
    Thomas Kee writes: Stimlus means fabricated growth  
    Mark Hulbert warns: Insiders betting on a correction.  "What's Mark Hulbert finding worrisome about the stock market? The recently bearish behavior of corporate insiders."
    Cody Willard finds that The bulls are scaredy cats.  "On Monday, we asked you who's more scared, the bulls or the bears. The results were surprising and overwhelmingly in one direction."

    Nigam Arora believes that Central banks are losing the battle.  
    A drain on the U. S. economy  ''With job expansion stalling, a close examination of the data indicates the situation's potentially more dire than widely believed. Al Lewis talks to the U.S. Business & Industrial Council's Alan Tonelson, who singles the nation's never-ending trade gap, saying: "The bucket has a big hole."
    Michael Gayed writes: In defense of the bears and deflation.    
    U.S. trade deficit narrows 3.8% in May from April  
    Wholesale inventories up 0.3% in May
    Matthew Lynn on thinning ranks of safe havens  
    Spain unveils €65 billion in new austerity  "Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy proposes higher taxes, lower wages for public employees and a cut in jobless benefits for new claimants as Spain moves to meet narrower budget-deficit requirements."
    China coming in for a landing  "If Britain is the world’s laboratory for austerity policy, then China is the world's laboratory for
massive Keynesian stimulus. (First Take)
"

      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Fed Minutes Offer No New Hints on More QE.  
    Do You Have a Plan For This Market Environment?  "For as long as I can remember, the general public has been viewed as the "dumb money" while the 2-and-20 crowd (i.e. the hedge fund industry) has been considered to be the "smart money." Although the public actually gets a bad rap on this score, it is true that inflows into equity mutual funds - the preferred vehicle of "Main Street" - have nearly always peaked when the market indices were reaching their bull market ... Read More »"
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Upping Exposure.  " 
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Inches Higher.  
    Europe Crisis: Update on Spain.  
        
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are flat tonight.


2012-7-10: (Tuesday Night): The markets dipped a little farther today: Stocks take a late battering; Stocks take a sharp turn down. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 5.56 points (-0.19%) to end at 2,931.77. The Dow declined 83.32 points (-0.65%) to close at 12,652.97; the S&P 500 fell 10.99 points (-0.81%) to settle at 1,341.47. Oil jumped to 84.01: Oil falls on euro zone, demand concerns; plunged to 1566: Gold ends lower with Fed, Europe in sights. The VIX rose 1.05 to 19.93.
    "Stocks hit session lows as industrials and resource stocks take a hit, and concerns about Europe deepen."
   
"U.S. stocks faltered Tuesday as worries about corporate earnings falling short of expectations unnerved investors, with the Dow sliding more than 100 points in afternoon trading. More"   
    Kevin Marder says Stock charts don't lie: The trend is up.

    Marketwatch says: 
    Yield on Spain's 10-year bond falls sharply 
    Brazil, China lead slowing in emerging markets  ''Emerging market economies show further signs of weakening in the second quarter, with Brazil and China leading the slowdown, according to a new survey from HSBC."
    Brazil stocks drop on China slowdown worries  
    China's Wen: Stabilize growth  "Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (left) says the government's top priority is now stabilizing economic growth, with policies to include business-tax cuts and more targeted investment."
    Europe crisis hitting Australia significantly: RBA  
    Cardillo: 'Rather dismal' earnings season  
    Should you sell a dull market short?.  "A decline on light volume took place Monday — should we get ready for more? Mark Hulbert counsels that volume itself isn't cause for concern."
    Small-business index slumps in June.  
    Irwin Kellner: Looking ahead, nervously, to 2013.       
   
The new retirement age: 70..   
    China imports disappoint.  "China’s imports grow at a weaker-than-expected rate while exports also slow, adding to evidence of a deepening slowdown."
    Weidner takes macro road trip.  "MarketWatch columnist David Weidner drives crosscountry, bearing witness to a nation in debt, unemployed and mired in housing woes, but with signs of stimulus and new technology afoot. "
    Small-business index slumps in June.
    U.S. job openings climb to 3.64 million in May.
   
Israel's BrainStorm takes on Lou Gehrig's disease  "Israel's Brainstorm is using stem cells to battle ALS, of Lou Gehrig's disease (video)."
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    EU Leaders to Jumpstart Loans to Spanish Banks  "At a meeting of EU finance ministers, it was announced that European governments will speed up as much as 100 billion euros in loans to Spain in order to shore up the nation's ailing banks... ... Read More »"
    The Real Solution to Europe's Woes  "The more you dig into the situation in Europe the more complex, and yet, at the same time simple, the situation becomes. My favorite line of the day from Monday was a newsflash that the Finance Ministers of Europe were meeting Monday and Tuesday to "tie up the loose ends from the most recent EU Summit." Loose ends? Really? First of all, the only thing that came out of the 19th summit in the last two years was a MOU ... Read More »
    German High Court To Address ESM and Fiscal Pact.  
    NFIB Small Business Index Fall Again in June.  
    The Early Look: Futures Pointing Higher on Europe News.     
        
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-7-9: (Monday Night): The markets dipped a little farther today: Bulls run from stocks; Stocks slide on earnings' fears. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 5.56 points (-0.19%) to end at 2,931.77. The Dow dropped 36.03 points (-0.28%) to close at 12,736.44; the S&P 500 fell 2.22 points (-0.16%) to settle at 1,352.46. Oil jumped to 85,75: Oil jumps on Norway strike ("Crude-oil futures ended higher Monday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and the likelihood of a lockout in Norway. Crude for August delivery added $1.54, or 1.8%, to settle at $85.99 a barrel."); gold logged off at 1588: Gold ends higher on dollar, recent drops. The VIX rose 0.98 to 18.08.
    "As Spanish yields rise to unsustainable levels, there's wariness in the market ahead of the season of second-quarter earnings reports."
   
"U.S. stocks skidded to a lower close Monday, as investors remained wary ahead of quarterly corporate results and another eurozone meeting. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Key Spanish yield tips 7% "Yield on Spain's 10-year government bond pushes above key level. Yield's also higher in Italy."
    Alcoa swings to a loss. "Aluminum prices slid 18%, but company stands by its outlook for demand growth of 7%."
    No 'positive miss' for Alcoa  
    Fed trio closer to QE3.  "A trio of central bankers sounds the alarm on the economy, suggesting they may be forced from the sideline to once again prop up growth."
    Obama says tax cut, Republicans say tax hike (video).  "President reignites the middle-class tax cut debate, proposing a one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts. Laura Meckler has detail."
    Obama calls for middle-class tax cut extension.       
    Military cuts loom as issue in election.   
    Corporations Swimming in Cash, But We're Drowning (video).
    Rex Nutting observes that It’s the best of times for U.S. corporations.  
    German anti-euro backlash gathers pace.
    Peter Brimelow notes: Bears surprisingly unrampant.
   
  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
    To QE or Not to QE?  "I recognize that regular readers of my meandering morning market missive may very well roll their eyes at the idea of comparing the opening lines of the soliloquy in William Shakespeare's Hamlet to the current macro mess investors find themselves facing. Clearly the question of whether or not "to be" had a far deeper meaning in Hamlet - especially in the life of a young lover. However, if you are interested, give the first few lines a quick read through and tell me that if ... Read More »
    The Employment Trends Index Falls in June  
    Fun Facts To Know and Tell About the Monthly Jobs Report  
    U.S. Job Growth Remains Lackluster in June  
    The Early Look: Futures Pointing Slightly Lower   
        
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are flat to slightly lower tonight.


2012-7-6: (Friday Night): The markets fell out of bed today: Stocks clock out after jobs; Stocks end down 1% on jobs woes. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 38.79 points (-1.30%) to end at 2,937.33. The Dow dropped 124.2 points (-0.96%) to close at 12,772.47; the S&P 500 fell 12.9 points (-0.94%) to settle at 1,354.68. Oil jumped to 84.24: Oil tanks 3.2% on dollar, disappointing jobs data; gold logged off at 1579: Gold ends nearly 2% lower, loses 1.6% on week. The VIX lost 0.40 to 17.10.
    "Major U.S, indexes tumble Friday as hiring gains fail to impress investors. Tech stocks take it on the chin, with the Nasdaq down 1.5%, with software stocks hurting. The week looks like a loser too."
   
"A weaker-than-expected jobs report dominated investors' attention Friday, pushing all three major U.S. stock indexes down more than 1%. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Charts tell a sorry jobs tale "U.S. nonfarm payrolls come in weaker than forecast, adding just 80,000 net new jobs. June's jobless rate holds steady at 8.2%."
    Payrolls growth again proves a disappointment
    Reactions focus on Fed and prospects for QE3.
    Political standoff exacerbates woes.
    Silvia: Employers adjust to slow growth (Audio)        
    Jobs picture is bleak, but not quite really bleak (Video)  "The slowdown in jobs is very real, but might not be as severe as many think."
    Congress stymies job growth  
    Bears, not bulls, chasing Spanish stock investors.  "A week ago, investors breathed a sigh of relief that European leaders had adopted measures to shore up the euro zone. Now, Spain seems right back in the soup (The Tell)."
    Germany an economic Potemkin village.
    Peugeot's plunging sales.
    Why the euro is at a 2-year low.    
    Italy clears budget cuts.
    Lagarde flags 'worrisome' outlook.  "Christine Lagard, head of the International Monetary Fund, sees deeper reason for concern about worldwide slowdown."
    Memo to Iran: $100 oil out of reach  "In the short run, at least, energy analysts see nothing to suggest a spike in crude prices as Saudi Arabia trumps Iran's saber ratting, writes Myra P. Saefong."
    Confidence to take another knock    
    Coordinated action on rates? More like coincidence.  "AWhile ECB and People's Bank of China rate cuts came within minutes of each other, evidence suggests they were not coordinated (The Tell)."
    Michael Gayed asks: Scared yet?  In this article, he ticks off the headlined reasons to be worried today, and concludes that not one of them is something that won't be reversed by tomorrow's headlines.
    Michael Gayed also writes:
Don't miss out on the IYCBTJT ("If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them") market. He continues to believe that the markets are headed up.  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    U.S. Job Growth Remains Lackluster in June  "While expectations had been for the U.S. to add northwards of 100K jobs last month, the Nonfarm Payrolls report showed just... ... Read More »"
    It's a Dirty Bird Which Fouls Its Own Nest  (There are many less polite versions of the title for this report, but we think that will suffice.) We were reminded of that old saying on the 4th of July after tuning in for a bit on the televised “hearing” over Barclays’ “Libor” scandal. (Yeah, we know, get a life). And according to Reuters, “More than a dozen other banks are being investigated in the long-running global probe of rigging of a key interbank interest by authorities in North America, ... Read More »"
    German Industrial Production Up in May  
        
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    And now, tonight, "May the road fall away before you and the wind be always at your back.".


2012-7-5: (Thursday Night): The markets closed flat-to-down today: Bad services data hit stocks; Stocks pare back losses. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.4 points (0.0%) to end at 2,976.12. The Dow slipped 46.93 points (-0.36%) to close at 12,896.89; the S&P 500 fell 6.44 points (-0.47%) to settle at 1,367.58. Oil jumped to 86.95: Oil settles lower amid low volume (?!); gold logged off at 1608: Gold trades lower after central banks’ moves (?!). The VIX gained 0.83 to 17.43.
    "Disappointing ISM service-sector numbers and poor retail sales set a negative tone for stocks Thursday even as positive jobs reports provided a midday boost. Apple helps Nasdaq avoid a loss."
   
"U.S. stocks pared earlier losses, as investors grew hopeful that interest rate cuts from China and Europe, along with tepid U.S. economic data, could bring more meaningful central bank action. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Weakest ISM services reading in 2 1/2 years "June reading falls to 52.1%, slumping closer to contraction tipping point, from May's 53.7%."
    Private sector adds 176,000 jobs
    Threats remain on labor front.
    Initial jobless claims fall to 374,000 last week.
    Another record low for 30-year mortgage: 3.62  
    Worst June in 3 years  "U.S. consumers tighten purse strings as retail sales post disappointingly small gains."
    Accentuating the positive  "Stocks decide that good job numbers are the indicator to focus on. Apple sparks Nasdaq gains."
    Kevin Marder suggests that Wading into stocks may make sense here.
    Michael Gayed advises: Don't get mad, get even.    
    Jon Markman observes that Presidential cycle hints at summer surprise.
    Peter Brimelow reports that Veteran ignores recession rumblings.  
    The Euro-Zone Crisis Infects the German Economy. (Video)  "New manufacturing, services and business confidence data suggest big cracks are appearing in the German economy, Hewlett-Packard to cut 27,000 jobs and the European Union is going to war with superbugs."  
    Will Germany Act to Rescue Euro? (Video)  "As Europe careens deeper into political and economic crisis, the immediate survival of the euro turns more than ever on a single question: Will Germany act? Vanessa Fuhrmans reports on Markets Hub."
    ECB and China Cut Key Rates (Video)  "The ECB cut its main interest rate to a historic low of 0.75%. China surprised the market with its second cut in less than a month and the Bank of England boosts quantitative easing by $78 billion."
    Rate cuts, more easing  "The European Central Bank reduces benchmark refi rate to 0.75%, a record low, as the deposit rate goes to zero. Top central banker Mario Draghi notes widening prospects for a regional downturn."
    Bank of England lifts 'QE'  
    Mark Hulbert writes Eisenstadt worried—but bullish.  
    Nutting: Economy Is Just About Out of Fuel  "MarketWatch's Rex Nutting checks in on Mean Street with a look at U.S incomes that are at record low rates for non-recession periods and how they are bringing the economy to a crawl."
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    ECB Cuts Rates to Record Low Level; Draghi Says Risks Remain  "The European Central Bank cut their benchmark interest rates to a record low on Thursday. In addition, the bank cut rates it pays on overnight deposits left at the ECB to 0%. The ECB announced Friday morning that its main refinancing rate was being reduced to 0.75% from 1.0%. According to Bloomberg, the move had been widely ... Read More »"
    Goldman Gives Up On Short Call for U.S. Market  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Growing
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Pulls Back  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Pull Back  
    ADP Employment Report Surprises To Upside  
    China Cuts Interest Rates for 2nd Time Since June  
    Bank of England Launches 3rd Round of QE  
    Challenger Planned Job Cuts Lowest in Year  
        
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Stock market futures are slightly lower tonight.


2012-7-3: (Tuesday Night): The markets rose today: U.S. stocks close higher; Stocks rally on strong auto sales, factory orders. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 24.85 points (0.84%) to end at 2,976.08. The Dow gained 72.43 points (0.58%) to close at 12,943.82; the S&P 500 rose 8.51 points (0.62%) to settle at 1,374.02. Oil slipped to 83.70: Oil rises to six-week high; gold logged off at 1599: Gold ends lower, but off session lows. The VIX declined 0.14 to 16.66.
    "Wall Street gains after a surprise jump in factory orders and an advance for commodity prices."
    "
U.S. stocks rallied on a holiday-shortened trading day, as investors reacted to strong auto sales and an increase in U.S. factory orders for May. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Look for stock fireworks Thursday (audio)  The author speculates that a European rate cut may be announced on Thursday.
    Home-improvement retailers trade weak 
    U.S. factory orders show 0.7% increase in May  
    Oil at six-week high on Iran worries
    IMF urges U.S. to step back from 'fiscal cliff'  "International Monetary Fund urges action on the U.S. deficit but recommends reductions be implemented at a pace that doesn't sap recovery. GDP growth's projected at 2% for 2012."
    Fiscal cliff a risk, 'Grexit' coming    
    Germany 'remarkable,' banks vulnerable: IMF
    China's waxen wings      
    Stimulus hopes lift Europe; Barclays in focus
    Mark Hulbert warns: Too many jumping on bullish bandwagon.  
    Hulbert: It's time to bet on banks.  
    

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    4th of July Holiday Market Roundup  
    Factory Orders Better Than Expected in May  
    Are Pre-Emptive Strikes In The Offing?  "Monday's ISM Manufacturing report in the U.S. was an eye opener on many fronts. But the key takeaway is that there is simply no denying the fact that growth is slowing down - a lot. While there was some chatter about the ISM data being "off" and several analysts said they preferred to wait for confirmation from data such as Durable Goods before panicking, the fact that the ISM Manufacturing index came in below 50 (which indicates that the sector is contracting) for the first time in 35 months ... Read More »"
    China's Services PMI Improves in June  
        
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    The markets will be closed tomorrow.


2012-7-2: (Monday Night): The markets backed and filled today: Nasdaq takes the high road; Stocks mixed as manufacturing data weighs. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 16.18 points (0.55%) to end at 2,951.23. The Dow eased 8.85 points (-0.07%) to close at 12,871.24; the S&P 500 rose 3.35 points (0.55%) to settle at 1,365.51. Oil slipped to 83.70: Oil falls after disappointing economic data; gold logged off at 1599: Gold ends lower, but off session lows. The VIX declined 0.12 to 16.96.
    "U.S. blue chips fall after data showing American manufacturing activity dropped into contraction territory in June for the first time in three years. But Nasdaq edges higher with Micron and Dell in focus."
    "
U.S. stocks were mixed Monday after a report showed manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in June for the first time in nearly three years. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Manufacturing activity shrinks in June, ISM says  
    Rex Nutting writes Recession now more likely  "The already-sluggish U.S. economy is stalling out, stung by doubts about our economic and fiscal future writes Rex Nutting. Decline in ISM was led by biggest one-month drop in new orders since October 2001."
    Naroff: ISM a shocker, but let's not panic (audio)  
    Euro-zone jobless rate sets record: 11.1%
    Euro retraces below $1.26  
    ECB, BoE ready to ease  "Analysts predict European Central Bank will cut rates as Bank of England expands debt-purchasing program in coming week."
    Europe's week ahead (video)      
    Michael Ashbaugh says S&P, Nasdaq retest the breakdown point.  
    Treasury yields fall to lowest in a month  
    Fed's Williams tries to ease inflation concerns.
    Emerging markets may be July’s best play.  
    Investing in China's slowing economy (video)  
    How to play the Bakken boom.  
    Nolte: Election-year pattern is good to July (audio).  
    Dow 16,000 will happen eventually  
    Jon Markman says Ragtag bull market surges on — against the odds  
    Gold will shine again.  
    It’s the end of the line for gold.  
    Brighter days ahead for your portfolio?  "Forget about Europe. Forget the U.S. economic slowdown. It's time to shine a light on how to make money, and MarketWatch's experts have just the advice for doing so."
    

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Resistance Looms  
    ISM Manufacturing Index Plunges in June  "The ISM Manufacturing Index, which is designed to indicate the state of the manufacturing sector, was a huge surprise as the index fell into contraction mode for the first time in 35 months... ... Read More »"
    Can The Optimism Continue To Prevail?  "Optimism about the future (aka "risk on") was loaded up and locked in the full on position from the time the opening bell rang on Friday until the very last tick of the session. Word that EU leaders had come up with a plan or two to try and deal with the ever expanding sovereign debt crisis was the focal point as French (+4.75%), German (+4.33%), Italian (+6.59%), and Spanish (+5.66%) stocks all exploded higher on Friday. Although details were few and far between and ... Read More »"
    Construction Spending Report Well Above Expectaions 
    European PMI's Show Some Improvement in June]  
    China Manufacturing PMI Shows Growth Slowing  

    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-6-29: (Friday Night): The markets rose mightily today: Bulls can't recover quarter; Stocks end first half of 2012 with a bang. The NASDAQ Composite leaped 85.56 points (3.00%) to end at 2,935.05. The Dow plowed ahead 277.83 points (2.20%) to close at 12,880.09; the S&P 500 rebounded 33.12 points (2.49%) to settle at 1,362.16. Oil rose to 84.84: Oil surges on EU debt plan; gold logged off at 1599: Gold back atop $1,600. The VIX declined 2.63 to 17.08.
    "Dow tallies best month of the year and Nasdaq posts its best day for 2012, after Europe moved to bolster the economies of its more troubled nations."
    "
U.S. stocks soared Friday, and all three indexes closed out the first half of 2012 up more than 5%. The Nasdaq has etched double-digit gains. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Stocks in a world of hurt  "A tumultuous quarter has left a trail of bailed-out countries and burned-out investors, writes Myra P. Saefong, and it's not clear what's coming next."
    Bonds on borrowed time.  "U.S. government bond funds played the hero yet again this quarter. Sound familiar? It should."
    Hulbert: Has major bear market in gold begun?  
    Michael Gayed: Anticipating the anticipation of others.
    Spano: Buy-and-hold is mostly right.  
    Waring: Bill Gross's latest thoughts.  
    Chuck Jaffe writes: Health or wealth? It’s your choice.  
    Kathleen Madigan writes: On health care, it’s the costs, stupid.  
    Howard Gold observes Overseas buyers seek U.S. real estate shelter.  
    Fund guys gather at Grimaldi to talk crisis.  
    

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    EU Leaders Announce Steps To Ease Crisis  "Although the bar was set extremely low for the 19th EU Summit over the past two years, leaders of the Eurozone produced an agreement on steps to ease the crisis ... Read More »"

    Think You Are Confused and Confounded?
  "We thought it mildly amusing that JPMorgan’s technical research desk chose yesterday to publish quite a bearish outlook for the S&P for the near future. You will recall we reported on Goldman Sachs’ “sell call” last week with a short-term target of 1285 on the SPX. And to tell the truth, their call, self-fulfilling or not, was not too shabby, although for now it has missed by about 25 S&P points. Yesterday, Michael Krauss, head of global technical research at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a note to clients that the ... Read More »"
    University Of Michigan Sentiment Weak
    Chicago PMI Headline BTE (Beats The Estimates?), But New Orders Sag
    Personal Income Up, Spending Unchanged in May 
    What Did We Learn?-]  
    EU Leaders Announce Steps To Ease Crisis  

    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Another roller-coaster week.


2012-6-28: (Thursday Night): The markets fell today and then rose into the close, recovering most of what they had lost: Stocks recover late; Health care ruling sparks broad stock sell-off. The NASDAQ Composite disgorged 25.83 points (-0.90%) to end at 2,849.49. The Dow retreated 24.98 points (-0.20%) to close at 12,602.03; the S&P 500 lost 2.81 points (-0.21%) to settle at 1,329.04. Oil rose to 78.40: Oil at 8-month low on summit fears; gold logged off at 1556: Gold ends lower on dollar, jitters about EU summit. The VIX added 0.49 to 19.94.
    "Markets cut big early losses late Thursday, seesawing over EU summit developments."
    "
A U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding President Obama's health care reform law sparked a deep sell-off for U.S. stocks Thursday, as investors fear that health care costs could further cripple economic growth. More"   
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Supreme Court upholds health-care overhaul  
    How health ruling hits you.  "Some popular provisions — such as requiring insurers to accept people regardless of pre-existing conditions and to accept children up to age 26 on parents’ plans — remain intact. It also might mean higher health costs ahead."
    Health-care jobs to grow  
    Health-care ruling jolts race for White House  "Court’s decision to uphold Obama’s health-care law is a shot in the arm for his campaign."
    Democrats rejoice; Republicans plan to repeal  
    Conservatives furious with Justice Roberts  
   
Kevin Marder advises: Stocks remain in an uptrend  "The fact that the three-week uptrend continues, despite concerns over Europe, healthcare and longer-term fiscal concerns, says something."
    

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    What If They Just Say Nein?  "Sometimes it is a good exercise to try and boil a problem down to "just the facts, Ma'am." So from my perch, the European debt crisis is really about three things: (1) Too much debt, (2) not enough income, and (3) a lack of confidence in the ability for the countries in question to make improvements on either of the first two scores. As such, traders (aka the evil bond vigilantes) vote with their feet and continue to sell the ... Read More »"

    Obamacare Upheld By U.S. Supreme Court
  "In a surprising move, the Supreme Court of the United States has upheld the primary components of President Obama's controversial health care law. The decision was ... Read More »"
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Perks Up a Bit
    U.S. GDP for Q1 Shows Economy Growing at 1.9% Rate
    Weekly Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 386K 
    Europe Update: Schauble Comments on Euro Bonds  
    JPM's Trading Loss Could Hit $9 Billion  

    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are ¼ % lower tonight.


2012-6-27: (Wednesday Night): The markets rose again today: Stocks like domestic data; Stocks finish higher on U.S. data. The NASDAQ Composite gained 21.26 points (0.74%) to end at 2,875.32. The Dow advanced 92.34 points (0.74%) to close at 12,627.01; the S&P 500 added 11.86 points (0.90%) to settle at 1,331.85. Oil rose to 80.49: Oil ends higher after supply, macro data; gold logged off at 1576: Gold ends meandering session 0.2% higher. The VIX dropped 0.27 to 19.45.
    "Investors take comfort from solid data on pending U.S. home sales for May as stocks extend gains."
    "
Stock markets closed with solid gains Wednesday following strong reports on durable goods and housing, but worries over the EU summit remain front and center. More"  
    Yesterday, I said; " Today probably marked a readjustment after yesterday's panic selling.
    And then again, given today's follow-through, maybe not. 
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Pending home sales surge to two-year high  
    U.S. orders for durable goods climb in May  
   
Kevin Marder advises: Stocks damaged but not undone "Soggy trading despite the release of some upbeat economic reports underscore the market's obsession with anything across the pond."
    Fed will need to do more for the economy: Evans  "Chicago Fed official Charles Evans says labor market weakness is "unacceptable."
    Does the health-care overhaul matter?
    Michael Gayed writes about Perseverance and the big picture.  
    ‘Developed’ Greece a model of dysfunction  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Is There An Actual Plan?  "In stepping away from the blinking screens for a moment and thinking about what is actually going on here, I find it truly amazing that once again we are waiting, hoping, and wondering what the next Eurozone Summit meeting will bring. Seriously, how many of these things have there been over the past two years? And yet the cycle continues as stock and bond markets first freak out about this country or that country needing a bailout. Next, the fear of contagion begins to percolate, threatening the very existence of the Eurozone in the process. And then once things get really heated, the leaders gather at a luxurious hotel and try to put a band-aid ... Read More »"

    What's the World's Biggest Hedge Fund Saying Right Now?
  "Connecticut's Bridgewater Associates is reportedly the largest hedge fund in the world. So when the founders speak, people (including Tim Geithner) ... Read More »"
    Pending Home Sales Up in May
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Stay Neutral
    Orders for Durable Goods Above Expectations in May 
    Richmond Fed Index Declines Again in June  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Rose Last Week  
    Yields Still Rising at Italian T-Bill Auction  

    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are flat tonight.


2012-6-26: (Tuesday Night): The markets rose somewhat today: U.S. stocks end with modest advance; Stocks hold modest gains. The NASDAQ Composite gained 17.9 points (0.63%) to end at 2,854.06. The Dow advanced 32.01 points (0.63%) to close at 12,534.6; the S&P 500 added 6.27 points (0.48%) to settle at 1,319.99. Oil rose to 79.48: Oil ends higher after last-minute reversal; gold logged off at 1573: Gold ends lower, gives back Monday’s sharp gains. The VIX dropped 0.66 to 19.72.
    "Data show stabilization in the housing market, while energy names bolster the S&P 500."
    "
Stocks held onto modest gains Tuesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a key European summit later in the week. More"  
    Today probably marked a readjustment after yesterday's panic selling.. 
    

    Marketwatch says: 
   Has peak oil peaked? (video)  "Liam Denning attempts to answer the key question about crude."
    Oil up in a hot minute.  "Crude futures finish higher in a late-session reversal after U.S. equities achieve a similar feat."
    Cheaper gas this summer.  
    Brent crude has another 10% to fall.  
    Euro crisis clouding U.S. recovery: Prudential
    Corporate tax reform? Fuhgeddaboudit
    Sen. Conrad defends crisis-era trades 
    Home prices in the U.S. rise 1.3%  
    How to survive the Euro crisis.  
    Egan-Jones cuts Germany on exposure to euro zone  
    Michael Ashbaugh gives us his analysis: Bulls and bears vie for the summer trend
    Dr. Irwin Kellner explains why The Treasury won’t do the twist.
    Darrell Delamaide writes: Romney: everyman for the ultra rich.
    Mark Hulbert tells How NOT to react to Supreme Court’s ruling.       
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Time For Some Window Dressing (or Undressing)-  "At the beginning of the year, the global macro outlook was nothing short of bleak. Although stocks had rallied a bit into the end of the year, a very long line of high profile fund managers had publicly stated that they were not optimistic about the prospects for the global economy coming into the New Year celebrations. In short, the outlook was overtly negative and almost universally accepted as just ... Read More »"

    Friend Your Co-Worker? No, Yammer Them
  "Facebook rules the world in social networking and most of us simply ignored Mr. Softie's purchase of Yammer. But maybe it's time to pay some attention to Yammer ... Read More »"
    Egan Jones Downgrades Germany
    A Plan Germany Could Actually Support
    EU Summit Draft: The Building Blocks for USofE 
    Richmond Fed Index Declines Again in June  
    Consumer Confidence Falls Again In June  
    10 Billion Euros for Cyprus? Really?  
    Case-Shiller Home Price Index Improves in April  
    Consumer Sentiment Up in France and Germany  

    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are neutral tonight.


2012-6-25: (Monday Night): The markets plummeted today: Europe derails stocks again; Stocks plummet on Europe jitters. The NASDAQ Composite fell 56.26 points (-1.95%) to end at 2,836.16. The Dow retreated 138.12 points (-1.09%) to close at 12,502.668; the S&P 500 dispensed with 21.30 points (-1.60%) to settle at 1,313.72. Oil rose to 79.21: Oil ends 0.7% lower at $79.21 a barrel; gold logged off at 1585: Gold ends higher as investors await EU summit. The VIX gained 2.08 to 20.11.
    "With Cyprus lining up for a bailout and expectations low for the upcoming EU summit, stocks succumb again to Europe fears. Positive U.S. home-sales data is no help to markets Monday."
    "
U.S. stocks fell Monday as investors lowered their expectations for a key summit of European Union leaders later this week. More"  
    Today probably marked a readjustment after yesterday's panic selling.. 
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Stocks, oil give EU summit an early Bronx cheer  
    Moody's downgrades ratings at 28 Spanish banks
    Cyprus No. 5 to seek bailout  "Island nation cites exposure to Greek debt in seeking to join four other countries getting euro-zone assistance."
    End of the road for Europe? 
    'Greek finance minister to step down  
    Spain formally requests aid  
    Merkel in a pickle over bunds  
    Soros rebukes Berlin
    Rex Nutting delineates Obama’s four biggest failures.
    Housing inventory plunges  "Housing inventory is shrinking in many parts of the country, but shadow inventory is piling up, columnist Amy Hoak says."
    New-home sales rise 7.6% in May.  
    Housing inventory is shrinking in many parts of the country, but shadow inventory is piling up, columnist Amy Hoak says.
    What Buffett's favorite metric says now Buffett's favorite Metric is the ratio of total stock market evaluation to GDP. Right now, it's at 
    Origin of Euro Crisis Was in U.S., Says EU Chief (video)      
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
   
Technical Talk: So Much For The Rally
   
And Now a Word From The Bear Camp  "I would contend that the global economic situation has been bad and getting worse for quite some time now. It is no secret, for example, that I have felt that the folks at ECRI would in the final ... Read More »"
    Are There Reasons To Be Optimistic?  "As I've written a time or twenty, the purpose of my morning market missive is to identify the forces that are driving the market. The thinking is that if one can understand what is happening to the stock market (SPY, DIA, QQQ, MDY, IWM) in the short-term then you ought not be surprised when the really big moves occur. And let's be clear about one thing; the real money in this game comes from getting the really big moves right such as the massive decline ... Read More »"
    New Home Sales Up 7.6% in May
    Soros Speaks: Eurozone Facing Do or Die Situation 
    Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls in May  
    BIS Says Central Banks Out of Ammunition  
    Spain Officially Requests Aid for Banks  

    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are up a bit tonight.


2012-6-22: (Friday Night): The markets plunged today: Markets recover some; stocks, euro, Treasury yields rise; U.S. stocks in recovery mode. The NASDAQ Composite recouped 33.33 points (1.17%) to end at 2,892.42. The Dow regained 67.21 points (0.53%) to close at 12,640.78; the S&P 500 added 9.51 points (0.72%) to settle at 1,335.02. Oil rose to 80.15: Oil ends higher, but loses more than 5% in week; gold logged off at 1573: Gold edges higher but ends week off nearly 4%. The VIX dropped 1.97 to 18.11.
    "U.S. stocks recoup a portion of the hefty losses from the previous session as investors cheered news the ECB would ease collateral for banks."
    "
U.S. stocks bounced back Friday, one day after fears of slow growth and bank downgrades sent them spiraling downward. More"  
    Today probably marked a readjustment after yesterday's panic selling.. 
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Moody's cuts ratings on 15 banks  
    Banks shrug off Moody's.  "Investors take the ratings agency’s long-awaited downgrades in the financial sector in stride, bidding the shares of the biggest banks higher."
    Nigam Arora writes Upside to bank downgrade "On Thursday, Moody's downgraded 15 banks in a long anticipated move. Here's why the move could be positive for J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, writes Nigam Arora (Trading Deck)."
    'U.S. stocks aren’t cheap'  "There’s nothing wrong with a little market optimism, but this just isn’t the time for it, asset manager Jeremy Grantham says.
    Grantham: 'Bonds are disgusting'  
    Dividend-paying stocks that are worth paying for  
    Michael Gayed on: 'Dividendsanity' and the negative narrative  
    In 'foothills' of higher rates  "Find out why a leading voice in the bond-fund world is bracing for a long season of tighter policy to come."
    Mark Hulbert observes that the Dreaded Death Cross is looming. He then concludes that since 1990, the "Death Cross" has lost its sting.
    Impending recession? Bump in road? See the charts  
    Howard Gold advises the "power elite" to Dump Greece, save Italy and Spain.  
    Selling in Spanish stocks yielding opportunities.  "Investors may not be ready to rush back in just yet, but several analysts say the selloff in Spanish stocks has gone too far."
    European Central Bank easing collateral rules.   
    Spain to seek bailout aid Monday.  
    Europe: important week ahead.      
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    A Call To Arms 
"When you are wrong, you are wrong, so you might as well admit it. Although the stock market had failed to freak out as expected both in front of and then after Wednesday's much anticipated FOMC announcement, it did deliver the goods on Thursday. So, while the title of yesterday's meandering morning missive was certainly appropriate for the time period in question, the words "Freakout Fakeout" certainly looked silly by the time Thursday's closing bell rang as the stock market (SPY, DIA, QQQ, MDY, IWM) had been walloped for losses of 2% or more across the board. Prior to Thursday's thrashing, the stock market had ... Read More »"
   
Goldman Sachs Makes The Call - Part II  "Jan Hatzius, the respected Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs was on CNBC Friday talking about the economy and the Fed, but not about "the call" the firm made Thursday... ... Read More »"
    Fed's Lacker Explains Dissenting Vote at FOMC Meeting
    German IFO Business Sentiment Index Update
    Goldman Sachs Makes The Call. Thanks 
    Moody's Makes Good On Threat To Downgrade Biggest Banks  
    
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Thus ends another week.


2012-6-21: (Thursday Night): The markets plunged today: The Dow craters 252 points; Stock sell-off intensifies on fear of bank downgrades. The NASDAQ Composite free-fell 71.36 points (-2.44%) to end at 2,859.09. The Dow dove 250.82 points (-1.96%) to close at 12,573.57; the S&P 500 dwindled 30.18 points (2.23%) to settle at 1,325.51. Oil ended the day at 78.53: Oil ends under $80, lowest since October; gold logged off at 1567: Gold futures fall sharply after data, Fed. The VIX added 3.03 to 20.28.
    "Wall Street's declines deepen as data detail struggling U.S., European, China economy."
    "
A stock sell-off gained steam Thursday, with the Dow sinking more than 200 points, as investor confidence was shattered by signs that the global economy may be hitting a rough patch. More"  
    Today's sell-off was dictated by worrisome headlines picked up by computers. 
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Spanish banks may need up to $78 billion: auditors  "Stress tests by auditors find that the Iberian nation's banking sector will need between $64 billion and $78 billion in a worst-case scenario."
    Spain's borrowing costs rise at bond auction.  
    Euro to fall to $1.15: Barclays 
    Lack of leadership at G-20  "How can Barack Obama possibly convince Angela Merkel that she's on the wrong path by focusing on fiscal rectitude, asks Darrell Delamaide.
    U.S. mortgage rates ease: Freddie Mac  
    Fed policy, Europe fears keep mortgage rates low  "It seems to defy supply-and-demand logic: If there’s more demand in the housing market, wouldn’t the cost of borrowing be on the rise?"
    200,000 borrowers want foreclosure review  
    Sales of U.S. existing homes fall 1.5% in May  
    Recession is not inevitable  "But there's little to cheer about in today’s headlines about the global economy, writes Rex Nutting. (First Take)"
    Gold on verge of spectacular moves
    Philly Fed factory gauge plunges in June
    Moody's reportedly to downgrade U.K. banks  
   
    First-time jobless claims all but flat last week
    U.S. manufacturing PMI at 11-mo. low.  
    June euro-zone PMI stays at 35-month low.  
    China manufacturing weakens further: HSBC.  
    What, good news? Leading indicators rise.   
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Hard To Be a Pure Chartist Here  
    The Freak-out Fakeout
  "Most everyone I talked to yesterday was sitting on the edge of their seats at 12:30pm and 2:15pm eastern time. For anybody who has been in or around this game for any length of time knows that "Fed days" tend to be wild days. And with the stock market (SPY, DIA, QQQ) having been on a joyride to the upside over the past two weeks (the DJIA had put on 725 points since June 4th), no one could be blamed for feeling a little skittish going into the all important Fed announcement. On Wednesday, even the news out of Europe was secondary. The headline exclaiming ... Read More »"
    Existing Home Sales Down May; Prices Up

    Leading Economic Index Rises in May
    Philly Fed Index Plunges in June
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Pulls Back 
    Markit's Flash U.S. PMI Shows Expansion Weakening  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Continue Recent Rise  
    Eurozone Preliminary PMI's Remain Weak Overall  
    HSBC Flash PMI for China Pulls Back in June  
    
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are up ¼ % tonight.

 


2012-6-20: (Wednesday Night): The markets yo-yoed today, closing essentially flat: Stocks fall as Fed cuts growth estimates; Stocks falter after Fed fails to knock socks off. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.69 points (0.02%) to end at 2,930.45. The Dow lost 12.94 points (-0.1%) to close at 12,824.39; the S&P 500 dwindled 2.29 points (-0.17%) to settle at 1,355.69. Oil ended the day at 81.06: Oil at lowest point since October; gold logged off at 1608: Gold trims losses following Fed’s ‘Twist’. In site of the good market tidings, the VIX dropped 1.14 to 17.24.
    "Dow industrials recover from an 80-point slide,
but are still decidedly negative as Fed decision, Bernanke talk fail to inspire investors."

    "
U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday after the Federal Reserve extended one of its stimulus programs but stopped short of announcing a more aggressive bond buying policy. More"  
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Fed extends Operation Twist by $267 billion  "Central bank extends stimulus measure known as "Operation Twist" with $267 billion Treasury buy."
    Fed cuts growth and inflation forecast.  "(MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday softened its growth and inflation forecasts over the next three years, as the central bank said the unemployment rate will hold above 8% through the end of 2012. The Fed also cut its inflation forecast down aggressively, to between 1.2% and 1.7% this year, as opposed to its forecast in April between 1.9% and 2%. The central bank targets 2% inflation over the medium term, so the reduced inflation forecast is likely to ratchet up expectations of additional central bank easing, possibly as soon as August. The Fed's forecast for growth this year is down to a range of 1.9% to 2.4%, down from 2.4% to 2.9% in April -- and its April 2011 forecast that 2012 growth would range between 3.5% and 4.2%. Also of note, it appears that the two newest voters, Jerome Powell and Jeremy Stein, are among the most dovish; the most recent breakdown of when the right time to raise hikes shows the only change is in 2015, which now has six members in that camp, up from four in April. Powell and Stein were recently sworn in as Fed governors."
    This lowered inflation forecast should give the Fed more room to initiate quantitative easing programs designed to stimulate the economy.
    Fed continues Twist; Bernanke hints of more action 
    FOMC statement on extending 'Twist'  
    Fed inaction not an option  
    Fed's next move?  "Economist John Canally says Federal Reserve could bring on "QE3" by early fall."
    Euro, Treasury yields turn higher on Merkel  "Euro turns up on reports German chancellor said she supports using a bailout fund to buy bonds."
    Treasurys lose Fed gains after Merkel comments  
    Euro’s endgame begins  "Don’t be fooled by a Fed-fueled stock market rally, writes Michael Casey. The world must come to terms with a brutal fact: the euro’s days are numbered."
    Matthew Lynn: U.K. can’t keep blaming Europe
    Singapore, Hong Kong face euro risk.  
    Greece forms coalition government.  
    Michael Gayed writes The end of the end-of-the-world trade.  
    Positive outlook for U.S. stocks.   
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
   
Fed Decides to Keep 'Twisting' Through Year-End  "After weeks of speculation, the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it would continue to combat the sluggish economy by extending “Operation Twist” until the end of 2012 (adding $267 billion to the program). Of the options that were available, extending the program where the Fed sells short-term bonds (3-year and below) and buys longer-term bonds (6-year and above) in order to push rates lower was the most popular choice among analysts. Many market participants had been hoping for the Fed to go back to straight up bond purchases – aka QE – however, the economic data doesn’t appear to be weak enough to warrant such an extreme measure at this ... Read More »"
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Neutral

    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Holding Steady
    Let's Be Honest
    Greek Leaders Have Formed a New Government 
    
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly negative again tonight.


2012-6-19: (Tuesday Night): The markets added ~1% today: Stocks hit five-week high; Stocks rise on hope for Fed action. The NASDAQ Composite gained 34.43 points (1.19%) to end at 2,929.76. The Dow rebounded 95.51 points (0.75%) to close at  12,837.33; the S&P 500 jumped 13.2 points (0.98%) to settle at 1,357.98. Oil ended the day at 83.08: Oil futures end lower on Spain worries; gold logged off at 1630: Gold slips; Spain’s woes support safe-haven demand. In site of the good market tidings, the VIX rose 0.06 to 18.38.
    "Investors bid stocks broadly higher against a backdrop of surprisingly robust U.S. housing
data and as the Federal Reserve meets."

    "
U.S. stocks finished up about 1% Tuesday, as investors breathed a delayed sigh of relief about Greece and were optimistic the Federal Reserve might act to boost the economy at the end of its two-day meeting . More"  
    As of today, the indices have closed well above the trading range in which they've been mired for the past month... signaling that the correction is over?
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. still has strong investment story  
    Europe gets homework.  "The G-20 presents Europe with a lengthy to-do list at the end of its summit meeting. But disarray among the region’s leaders raises questions."  
    At G-20, global food security on agenda (video).
    IMF: Emerging markets push pledges up  
    Germany to allow Europe funds to buy debt  
    Spain pushes bonds  "Nation's paying around two percentage points more in interest than a month ago to lure investors."
    Where to buy 7% Spanish bonds.  
    Fed preview: Let's twist again.  
    Federal Reserve not cowed by elections.  
    Nigam Arora: How to trade Fed.   
    What eclipsing 50-day average means. Mark Hulbert explains that the fact that the S&P 500 has broken above its 50-day average doesn't mean much of anything.  
    Mick Weinstein writes Are we in a recession?  
    Fiscal cliff is closer than you think.    
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    How Did We Get Here?  "If you are anything like me, I'm guessing that you have probably heard enough about Greece to last you a lifetime. Well, unless of course, you are discussing vacation plans, that is. But unfortunately, if you want to have any shot at comprehending what the market is doing or why it is doing it, then you've got to have a working understanding of what is happening in Europe. So, I thought we should spend a few minutes this morning hitting the highlights of how we got to where we are and what is happening at the present time. To be sure, Greece has been at ... Read More »"
    Veinte Cervezas Por Favor  "There is a lot more going on at the G-20 meeting in Mexico than meets the eye of the press. For starters, there was the cancelled meeting between President Obama and Angela Merkel ... Read More »"
    EU and the Credit Rating Agencies
    Yields Soar at Spanish T-Bill Auction 
    How Did We Get Here?  
    Eurozone ZEW Indices Continue To Decline  
    
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly negative tonight.


2012-6-18: (Monday Night): The markets were mixed today, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 up and the Dow down: S&P, Nasdaq see a 3-peat; U.S. stocks close mixed on Europe woes. The NASDAQ Composite gained 22.53 points (0.78%) to end at 2,895.33. The Dow lost 25.35 points (-0.20%) to close at  12,741.82; the S&P 500 crept up 3.80 points (0.28%) to settle at 1,344.78. Oil ended the day at 83.08: Oil futures end lower on Spain worries; gold logged off at 1630: Gold slips; Spain’s woes support safe-haven demand. The VIX fell 2.79 to 18.32.
    "Better sentiment on Greece and U.S. housing counter rising fears about Spain."
    "
Stocks ended mixed on Monday after a day of choppy trading, following the election in Greece which yielded a win for the pro-bailout party. More"  
    

    Marketwatch says: 
    Fed's twisted easing plans  "Central bank is likely to extend its Operation Twist program at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday, Fed experts say."
    Euphoria over Greek vote fades  
    David Marsh: ECB battens down the hatches.
    EU is doomed. So buy now  
    Merkel as Churchill? Not bloody likely  
    Obama, Merkel talk Europe  "U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet on sidelines of the G-20 summit and agree to work together to stabilize the euro zone."
    EU will seek ways to spur Greek growth  
    Darrell Delamaide: Europe still far from finish line  
    Thomas Kee, Jr., writes: A mechanical strategy for this market  
    Yields spike in Spain, Italy  "Amid rekindled jitters over Spain's banking sector, 10-year yields push well clear of the 7% danger zone, while Italian yields top 6% and push higher."   
    Dow drops as Spain fears limit Greek relief  
    IMF report urges Europe action on growth  
    Keep your eyes on Europe
    S&P lifts within view of 50-day average  
    Eerie comparisons to the crash of 2008  
    McMillan sees strong buy signals in place      
    Chasing the reflationary Melt-Up   "" 
    Rex Nutting says that Romney’s budget plan doesn’t add up.    
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market
    Now What?  "Stocks have flip flopped from green to red and from red to green for six consecutive sessions now, all the while staying in a tight little range between 1330 and 1310 on the S&P 500. And the end result of all the back-and-forth, up-and-down movement is that as of Thursday's close the S&P sits in the same place it was on May 29th. So, "going nowhere fast" may be an appropriate label to spack on this market. (Heck even Apple - AAPL - has done nothing for the last 17 days!) To be sure, this ... Read More »"
    NAHB Homebuilder Confidence Index Improves Modestly in June
    Greek Voters Support Euro and EU Bailout Plan 
    Hedge Funds And Those That Only Act Like Them  
    
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are mixed tonight.


2012-6-15: (Friday Night): Drum roll... wait for it... the stock market has been "up" (strongly) two days in a row! Stocks push to Friday high; Stocks rise on hope for Greece. The NASDAQ Composite rose 36.47 points (1.29%) to end at 2,872.80. The Dow gained 115.26 points (0.91%) to close at  12,767.17; the S&P 500 elbowed its way up 13.74 points (1.03%) to settle at 1,342.84. Oil ended the day at 84.00: Oil gains after OPEC holds steady on output; gold logged off at 1626: Gold set to extend gains to sixth session . The VIX backed up slightly 0.34 to 21.34.
    "Stocks stake out gains amid optimism over signs that central banks are ready to act to calm markets if Greece's Sunday election triggers volatility"
    "
U.S. stocks rose Friday as investors grew more optimistic ahead of the crucial Greek elections this Sunday. More"  
    A take-home message from today's action is that as of their close today, the indices have broken above the trading ranges in which they've been mired for the past month. Of course, given the current news-driven environment, they could turn around and plunge on a headline or two of ominous news (as a byproduct of computer-driven high-frequency trading). But for now, the augurs are pointing higher.

    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. to G-20: It's the growth  "America is going to push for more economic growth and less austerity at the G-20 leaders summit in Mexico next week, officials say."
    Mark Hulbert says that the Wall of worry remains quite strong.
    Bernanke, can you hear me?  
    Investors brace for dramatic new stage in Europe  "Investors begin preparing for a new stage in the Europe debt crisis ahead of a weekend Greek vote that could help determine future of the euro zone."
    Euro up more than 1% for week  
    Michael Gayed contributes Central bank paranoia fuels 'Melt-Up'  
    Uncertain times for U.S. economy  "If the U.S. economy falters again, the most likely culprit will be that classic enemy of growth: uncertainty. Financial crisis in Europe and a looming political impasse in Washington are the latest dangers."
    Consumer sentiment lowest since December  
    Factory activity cools  
    RealtyTrac: Pace of foreclosures seen heating up again (video)  
    Industrial production slips 0.1% in May  
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: If You Can Ignore The News  "While it is tough to do at the present time, if one can ignore the news flow from across the pone the technical picture appears to be improving. But... ... Read More »"
    What Is Ms. Market Saying (If Anything)?  "Stocks have flip flopped from green to red and from red to green for six consecutive sessions now, all the while staying in a tight little range between 1330 and 1310 on the S&P 500. And the end result of all the back-and-forth, up-and-down movement is that as of Thursday's close the S&P sits in the same place it was on May 29th. So, "going nowhere fast" may be an appropriate label to spack on this market. (Heck even Apple - AAPL - has done nothing for the last 17 days!) To be sure, this ... Read More »"
    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Below Expectations in May
    Empire Manufacturing Index Disappoints in June  
    University Of Michigan Sentiment Also Weak  
    Central Bankers Stand Ready If Greek Election Causes Mayhem
    
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    This was another "up" week. 

    Sunday will see the anticipated Greek election take place.


2012-6-14: (Thursday Night): Since yesterday was a down day, today was an up day: Stocks climb on Fed hopes; Stocks rally on hopes for central bank boost. The NASDAQ Composite rose 17.72 points (0.63%) to end at 2,836.63. The Dow regained 155.53 points (1.24%) to close at  12,651.91; the S&P 500 annexed 14.22 points (1.08%) to settle at 1,329.10. Oil ended the day at 84.24: Oil gains after OPEC holds steady on output; gold logged off at 1626: . The VIX retreated 2.59 to 21.68.
    "Wall Street rallies, keying off growing investor expectations for a move next week by the Federal Reserve."
    "
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Thursday as panicky investors reacted to reports that central banks are ready to provide liquidity to financial markets following Greece's crucial election on Sunday in case it becomes necessary. More.  

    Marketwatch says: 
    Stocks up on hope of global bank moves  "Major indexes lock in strong gains on reports of possible action by global central banks."
    Bernanke, can you hear me?  
    U.K.'s Osborne: 'We are not powerless'  
    World to link hands, cut rates?  
    Euro-zone inflation falls to lowest in over a year  
    May's CPI drops on gasoline
    Initial jobless claims rise to 386,000  
    Core CPI may hamstring Fed on policy moves  
    RealtyTrac: Pace of foreclosures seen heating up again (video)  
    Greece could exit euro zone in weeks: experts  
    Tomi Kilgore notes that Dow appears to be carving a bottom.
    Greek, French voters rewriting Homer’s epic tales  "If Homer were alive to tell the story of the euro, he might cast Alexis Tsipras as the tragic Achilles, and François Hollande as savvy Odysseus, says Darrell Delamaide."
    ECB must resist expansion: Weidmann  
       

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    Europe Is Sinking; My Position This Week  "PRO Trader manager Curtis Bergquist offers his thoughts on the goings on across the pond and how he is positioning his accounts for the upcoming events. ... Read More »"
    The Next China Boom is Coming  "IThe call was scratchy and barely audible. I was instructed to not mention any names. I should only use the prearranged code words when talking about political parties. You never know when the phones in China are tapped. I was just about to get a heads up that the People's Bank of China was going to lower interest rates for the first time in four years. Of course, we knew this was coming. Three relaxations of bank reserve requirements over the past six months telegraphed ... Read More »"
    Egan Jones Downgrades France  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Rises  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Higher Again
    CPI Shows Consumer Inflation Declines in May
    
    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are flat tonight. (Tomorrow is a quadruple "witching hour" day.)


2012-6-13: (Wednesday Night): The markets yo-yoed up and down today: Stocks wobble on Europe; Stocks end lower on concerns about Europe. The NASDAQ Composite lost 24.46 points (-0.86%) to end at 2,818.61. The Dow slid 77.42 points (-0.62%) to close at  12,496.38; the S&P 500 relinquished 9.3 points (-0.70%) to settle at 1,314.88. Oil ended the day at 82.48: Oil closes lower again; gold logged off at 1619: . The VIX gained 2.18 to 24.27.
    "U.S. indexes close lower as traders worry about Greek elections and assess weak retail sales."
    "
U.S. stocks sold off late Wednesday to end the day lower on concerns about the debt crisis in Europe and falling oil prices. More".  

    Marketwatch says: 
    Crisis focus shifts to Italy  "Italian 10-year bond yields have this week climbed back above 6% ahead of a keenly watched auction on Thursday, as contagion fears from Spain stoke worries that Italy is next in the bailout line."
    Matthew Lynn: Finland the answer to euro crisis  
    Switzerland’s ‘Katrina moment’ looms  
    Greek bank withdrawals accelerate  
    Preparing for Gre-xit (video)  
    Industrials and autos lead European pullback  
    Egan-Jones downgrades Spain to CCC+  (Junk status)
    Dimon can’t hide disdain  "J.P. Morgan’s chief comes across as combative, dismissive and at times disgusted with his congressional questioners. (First Take)"
    Why Dimon's testimony doesn't matter  
    Panel members got J.P. Morgan contributions
    Is Dodd-Frank deja vu all over again?  
    Mark Hulbert reminds us that Stock market is saying “Don’t fight the Fed”.
    Michael Gayed writes: Reflation returns as 'melt-up' takes hold.  
    Chuck Jaffe warns High-yield investment programs are hype.  
    PPI falls a steep 1%.  
    Business inventories up.  
    Gas tamps down May sales.
       

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
    Technical Talk: The Problem Here Is...  
    Either Hope Trumps Fear Or...  "It is often said that markets are never wrong, but people/traders often are. As such, I should probably begin this morning's meandering market missive with the caveat that I too just might be wrong with my conclusion. But, since I've been wrong a time or two before and it is a safe bet that I will likely be wrong again at some point in the future, I'm okay with that. So off we go. Long-time readers know that I'm a bit of a stickler about understanding the "why" behind a market move. I'm a firm believer in the idea that there is indeed a "why" behind every major move in ... Read More »"
    Spain Downgraded by Egan Jones to Junk Status  
    Spain Also Cut At Moody's  
    Business Inventories Above Expectations in April
    NAAIM Index Shows Managers Increasing Exposure
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment On the Rise  
    Retails Sales Fall Across the Board in May  
    Producer Price Index Shows No Inflation in May 
    Yields Still Rising at Italian T-Bill Auction  
    Eurozone Industrial Production Declines Again in April  

    For real-time updates throughout the trading day, try State of the Markets Twitterfeed.

    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2012-6-12: (Tuesday Night): The markets backed and filled but rose into the close: Powerful kick at the finish; Stocks close up more than 1%. The NASDAQ Composite regained 33.34 points (1.19%) to end at 2,843.07. The Dow posted a triple-digit gain of 162.57 points (1.31%) to close at  12,573.80; the S&P 500 regained 15.25 points (1.17%) to settle at 1,324.18. Oil ended the day at 83.45: Oil closes higher; gold logged off at 1615: Gold tallies three-session gain of 1.6%. The VIX dropped 1.26 to 22.30.
    "U.S. markets sit near their highs of the day as stocks shrug off Europe concerns, at least for now."
    "
U.S. stocks closed up more than 1% Tuesday, a quick rebound from the prior session's losses. More".  

    Marketwatch says: 
    Euro falls further as Spain's yields hit record  
    Merkel: Spain crisis result of property bubble  
    Europe stocks off as Spanish, Italian yields surge  
    Cyprus could be fifth EU nation to get bailout  
    America's fate is in others’ hands  "No matter what Washington winds up doing to try to boost economic growth, it could all be for naught if other countries should take a swan dive at the same time, writes Irwin Kellner."
    David Weidner adds that Weidner: Spain bank woes could still hit U.S.  
    Rough global road (video)  "The World Bank' has a dim outlook for global economic stability over the next several years."
    The future of euro zone  
    IMF seeks ‘powerful’ easing from Bank of Japan  
    Investors becoming more pessimistic: survey  
    Mark Hulbert explains the Significance of 200-day moving average.  
    Darrell Delamaide states that the Deficit debate marks economic dark ages. Darrell Delamaide is lining up with Irwin Kellner and Rex Nutting in backing 
    Home downscale home (video)  "Neal Lipschutz goes over devastating data that illustrate the decline in U.S families' wealth since the economic downturn. (Photo: Getty Images)"    
    Fed: Recession pounded middle-class wealth.  Middle-class wealth fell by 40% since "the Great Recession" began. Part of this was the result of a deflation of real estate prices, but part of it was a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the extreme upper class.
    Market rally a 'major bull trap': analyst  
    Treasurys extend losses after 3-year auction  Interest rates rose.
       

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market  
    It's (Still) All About The Rates  "Monday started off with such promise for our heroes in horns. Fresh off what is now being called the "Spailout," Asian markets were higher and while not quite as enthusiastic, European bourses were stepping lively as well, which, of course, pushed the U.S. futures solidly into the green. The thinking was that the risk trade was going to be flipped to the "on" position as the euro-shorts ran for cover. And if things played out properly, this would send the dollar lower and risk assets higher. With the most recent ... Read More »"
    Is It Now Five and Counting?  "Although Cyprus is a tiny country and most investors probably couldn't locate it on a map, word is that it will become the fifth nation to request a bailout loan from the EU. Here's the problem ... Read More »"
    What He Knew and When He Knew It  "JPMorgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon will venture to Capitol Hill tomorrow and provide what is sure to be "must see TV" as he defends the massive trading losses ... Read More »"
    Import and Export Prices Decline in May  
    NFIB Small Business Index Pulls Back in May  
    The Early Look: Futures Pointing Gently Higher

    Market futures are... surprise! surprise! down ¼ % tonight.


2012-6-11: (Monday Night): The markets leaped today on news that Spain will rescue its banks, and then fell, to close markedly lower: Spain high to Greece low; U.S. stocks lower as Spain enthusiasm fizzles. The NASDAQ Composite plunged 48.69 points (-1.70%) to end at 2,809.73. The Dow posted a triple-digit loss of 142.97 points (-1.14%) to close at  12,411.23; the S&P 500 retrenched 16.73 points (-1.26%) to settle at 1,308.93. Oil ended the day at 81.43: Oil sinks below $83 a barrel; gold logged off at 1599: Gold gains. The VIX dropped 2.23 to 23.56.
    "U.S. stocks' gains slip away as investors look beyond Spain's request for financial aid and shift focus toward Greece's elections."
    "
Following a higher open, U.S. stocks slid into the red Monday as early enthusiasm over a $125 billion bailout for Spanish banks fizzled. More".
    Paul Krugman sums it up in Permanent Link to Things You Really Don’t Want To See The Morning After A Bailout.

    Marketwatch says: 
    Marshall Ashbaugh calls today's action A sluggish response to a bullish catalyst  
    Why bondholders are scared about Spain  "Who will pay for the Spain bank bailout? That is the question hounding bond investors."
    Spain uncertainty remains even after bailout.  
    Bailout seen shoring up Spain's debt market.  
    Greece spoils the party.
    The euro is not dead yet 
    Nigam Arora says: Gold crowd gets India wrong.  
    Craig Stephen tells us about China’s ‘feel-bad’ interest rate cut.  
    David Marsh notes that Pavlik: Vote for French Left weakens Merkel.  
    Myra Saefong addresses: OPEC’s fine line of oil balance and chaos.
    Peter Brimelow: Decade’s top performer dubious.  
    Ex-MF Global economist wins 9th award
"“The recovery itself has proven much more resilient and self-sustaining than the bears have predicted, but it has still been a disappointment, triggering several rounds of monetary stimulus,” O’Sullivan continued.
    "“On the positive side, many of the headwinds that have been holding back the recovery are fading, with the drag from deleveraging past its peak, the banking system starting to ease lending standards, and the financial crisis from 3-plus years ago starting to fade in memories and fade as a driver of behavior,” O’Sullivan said.
"
       

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Buy The Rumor and...  "The tape action has been nothing short of abysmal so far on Monday as traders appear to be completing the second phase of the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trade ... Read More »"
    Spain To Get 100 Billion To Recapitalize Banks  
    Spain Gets Its Bailout, Now What?  
    Does This Ever End? "One of the key things that has kept hope alive for stock market investors over that past two years is that the European debt crisis would eventually end. As each and every deadline and/or EU Summit has come and gone, investors have been able to breathe a sigh of relief that the sky did not fall. And given that the sun did indeed rise after each and every big, bad event, the stock market eventually moved on from the debt mess across the pond. With word that the latest threat to the global banking system - Spain (EWP) - is ... Read More »"
    China Economic Data Largely Weaker Than Expected  
    Tech Tidbits    
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes From The Week That Was  

    Market futures are up ⅓ % tonight.


2012-6-8: (Friday Night): The markets leaped today and then fell, to close mixed: U.S. stock indexes rise on hope for Europe; Stocks- Best week of 2012. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 26.60 points (0.93%) to end at 2,858.42. The Dow added 93.24 points (0.75%) to close at  12,554.20; the S&P 500 advanced 10.67 points (0.81%) to settle at 1,325.66. Oil ended the day at 84.37: Oil snaps five-week losing streak; gold logged off at 1595: Gold ends higher, but suffers a weekly loss. The VIX dropped 0.49 to 21.23.
    "Stocks rise after President Obama urges Europe to act quickly to combat its economic crisis and on report Spain is close to asking for help."
    "
U.S. stocks rose Friday, capping the best week of the year, amid speculation that Spain will request a bailout for its troubled banking sector over the weekend. More".
    Last night, I wrote: " The markets were looking for follow-through today and they didn't get it. Looking at the charts, I'd expect further market erosion tomorrow.  In our headline-driven market environment, I'd want to be in cash in case any wicked surprises show up over the weekend." Yeah. That's what I wrote. Good thing I didn't act on my prediction.

    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. debt load falling at fastest pace since ‘50s.
    U.S. trade deficit for April reflects weaker exports.  
    Wholesale inventories increase 0.6%  
    Obama warns on Greece  "President takes a more strident tone with Europe, urging leaders to aid the troubled banking sector and warning Greece not to leave the euro zone."
    Blocked at home, Obama gives advice to Europe 
    Moody's: Spain, Greece may trip more rating cuts  
    S&P affirms U.S. credit rating, outlook negative  
    Pavlik: Watch out for Greek elections  
    U.S. braces for U.K.-style revolt.  "U. S. boards should brace themselves for mounting dissatisfaction with ececutive compensation as the current 'shareholder spring' in Europe spreads."
    Europe may issue joint bond, just not ‘euro bond’  
    Gabriel Stein: Why sweat a Greek exit?.
    EU troubles bite into German trade  
    What if the Fed's forced to action?  
    Michael Gayed advises that Bear fever is breaking
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    You Pick Your Spots  "Imagine if you will that you are currently wearing the shoes of either "Gentle Ben" Bernanke or "Super Mario" Draghi, who happen to head the central banks of the USofA and the European Union. If you are interested in playing along this morning, think about what is going on in the world right now and then spend some time trying to figure out what you'd do next. And no, jetting off to the south of France and burying your head in the sand is not really an option! The whole of the financial world is basically clamoring for your thoughts, ... Read More »"
    Wholesale Inventories Above Expectations 
    Report: Spain To Request Aid This Weekend  
    Japanese GDP Above Expectations in Q1    
    Real Time Strategy Sneak Peek: The PRO Trader  


2012-6-7: (Thursday Night): The markets leaped today and then fell, to close mixed: Wall Street's rally fizzles; Stock rally fades as Bernanke kills stimulus buzz. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 13.70 points (-0.48%) to end at 2,731.02. The Dow added 0.14 points (-0.01%) to close at  12,460.96; the S&P 500 advanced 7.32 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,314.99. Oil ended the day at 83.01: Oil ends higher, but supply data cap gains; gold logged off at 1590: Gold falls after Bernanke, China rate cut. The VIX dropped 0.44 to 21.72.
    "Dow steps back from an earlier triple-digit advance while Nasdaq and S&P see day's gains vanish."
    "
U.S. stocks ended mixed Thursday, trimming gains from earlier in the day, as comments from Ben Bernanke tempered hopes for immediate stimulus by the Federal Reserve. More".
    The markets were looking for follow-through today and they didn't get it. Looking at the charts, I'd expect further market erosion tomorrow. In our headline-driven market environment, I'd want to be in cash in case any wicked surprises show up over the weekend.

    Marketwatch says: 
    Fed keeps its guard up.
    Fed's Fisher: China must open financial sector.  
    30-year mortgage at 3.67%  
    Jobless claims fall  
    Todd Harrison writes that Deflation is elephant in room.  
    China's central bank cuts interest rates  
    Rate cuts across the globe.
    Germany and France can’t afford euro-zone bailout  
    Fitch cuts Spain credit rating to BBB  
    Kevin Marder gives us 3 reasons to like this rally
    David Callaway avers that Obama’s following me; and the bull is back  
    Darrell Delamaide writes that it's Time to start throwing money at euro crisis  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Bulls Looking For Follow-Through  
    Bernanke Says Fed Stands Ready if Economy Threatened "Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered testimony on Capitol Hill saying that the Federal Reserve stands ready to help protect the economy and the financial system if... ... Read More »"
    Can Hope Continue To Prevail?  "After the near 10% correction (the S&P 500 fell -9.936% on a closing basis to be exact) that occurred from April 1 through Friday, it is safe to say that there wasn't a whole lot of hope in the market. No, as of Monday morning, reality had become the dominant force. As in the reality that almost all of the economic reports in the U.S. had come in WTE (weaker than expected). As in China's economy was no longer growing at a 10% rate. And as in the reality that there wasn't going to be ... Read More »
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Improves  
    Report: Spanish Banks Will Need 40 Billion Capital Infusion
    Spanish Bond Auction Raises Maximum  
    EU Says No Bank Rescue Plan For Spain in Works    
    
    Market futures are modestly (~⅓ %) lower tonight.


2012-6-6: (Wednesday Night): The markets leaped today: Dow's triple-digit comeback; Dow, S&P 500 post biggest gains of 2012. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 18.10 points (0.66%) to end at 2,778.11. The Dow added 26.49 points (0.22%) to close at  12,127.95; the S&P 500 advanced 7.32 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,285.50. Oil ended the day at 85.08: Oil ends higher, but supply data cap gains; gold logged off at 1623: Gold futures log highest close in a month. The VIX dropped 1.44 to 24.68.
    "Dow industrials are set for their largest single-day jump of the year, as pressure mounts on policy makers to come up with additional stimulus. Major U.S. stock indexes are up about 2%."
    "
U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 logging their best gains of the year, as investors grew hopeful that more stimulus for the global economy is around the corner. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. productivity falls 0.9% in first quarter.
    Fed sees moderate growth.  
    Atlanta Fed's Lockhart broaches further Twist  
    Fed’s Yellen keeps door open for more easing  
    Europe's woes hurting U.S.: Fed's Williams  
    Have the Fed's efforts helped? (video)  
    Mark Hulbert says: Mark Hulbert: Market's significantly undervalued. |   Hulbert's take on why stocks are cheap (video). 
    Michael Gayad points to More evidence of correction's end  "After underperforming the past few years, emerging markets are showing the signs of a potential turn, adding a piece to the end-of-correction puzzle."
    Imagining an end to the dollar’s reign 
    Matthew Lynn enumerates: 5 ways to trade euro’s game of chicken.  
    China eats world  "China's overseas investment surges in the first quarter as state-owned companies snap up resource-related assets around the globe, says a firm investing for China's sovereign-wealth fund."
    Money flows into slowing China  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Can It Last? "The bulls are putting in on an impressive show so far today as the hope trade is definitely set to the "on" position. However, the key question at this point is ... Read More »"
    It's Tough Out There  "There is no denying the fact that the stock market has not exactly been a friendly place to invest since April 1st. Of course, prior to April Fool's Day the stock market had been uncharacteristically warm and cozy as the S&P had set some sort of record for the most consecutive days without experiencing a decline of 1% or more. And after the nightmare that was seen from summer through late fall of 2011, the one-way market advance was a welcome change. However, since the bull-market high on 4/1 (which, in hindsight was a fairly ... Read More »
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Remain Cautious  
    ECB Holds Rates Steady, Keeps Hope for Action Alive
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Fades  
    Q1 Worker Productivity, Unit Labor Costs Slip    
    Hilsenrath: Fed Ready To Consider Additional Action     
    Germany's Industrial Production Falls    

    Market futures are modestly (~⅓ %) higher again tonight.


2012-6-5: (Tuesday Night): The markets closed mixed today: Dow industrials snag gain after upbeat data; Stocks end higher on upbeat report. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 18.10 points (0.66%) to end at 2,778.11. The Dow added 26.49 points (0.22%) to close at  12,127.95; the S&P 500 advanced 7.32 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,285.50. Oil ended the day at 84.07: Oil tops $84 as traders weigh Europe, economy; gold logged off at 1618: Gold futures settle higher, fail to reclaim $1,620. The VIX dropped 1.44 to 24.68.
    "Stocks rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher for the first time in five sessions, after better-than-expected services-sector data."
    "
U.S. stocks finished higher Tuesday, but the gains were limited as investors weighed an upbeat U.S. economic report against Europe's ongoing debt problems. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. factory orders decline  "Orders for goods produced in U.S. factories decline 0.6% in April, the Commerce Department reports."
    Darrell Delamaide notes that Obama hopes dim with economic missteps.
    David Weidner observes that Finally there’s straight talk on Wall Street.  
    Mark Hulbert says: Correction's close to being over. He bases this conclusion on the extreme current level of pessimism.
    But Jon markman asks: Is the bear around the corner?
    How to break the vicious cycle  
    Fed’s Bullard: Jobless rate doesn’t change outlook  One disappointing jobs report isn't enough to recalibrate Fed policy.
    Euro stays down after G-7 call  European leaders today participate in a teleconference call, but apparently, nothing substantive came out of the meeting, and the Euro didn't rise on foreign currency markets.
    Europe stocks buoyed by U.S. services data         
    European Central Bank likely to stay on fence  "European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s frustration is showing, but he remains unlikely just yet to ride to the rescue of the euro zone."
    Germany will rescue euro zone: ex-Deutsche Bank chief  
    China in reverse  "China will have a hard time living up to its growth targets this year, according to analysts who say a reality check could be coming for policy makers seen as able to move the economy at will."
    China plans for potential Greek euro exit: report  
    Long-term Treasury yields rise for second day  It's "risk-off" again.
    Michael Gayad says: Bonds acting as if there's been a 'Lehman' event.
    "I also maintain my original stance that stocks may yet have a massive move higher into year-end as the reflation trade reasserts itself again. And given that our ATAC (Accelerated Time And Capital) models used for managing client accounts positioned us into equities during the first quarter, went into bonds in early April, and is now preparing for another rotation back into stocks in the next two to three weeks given market behavior, I am beyond excited for the next melt-up.
    "What makes me so bullish? The answer is simple — the payout for betting on the negative Black Swan likely no longer exists because various intermarket trends have behaved as if 1) a significant Crash/massive correction in absolute terms has already happened, and 2) given the pricing in of an event which has not actually occurred. In the first segment I did Monday, I talked about the price ratio of the 20+ Year Treasury ETF /quotes/zigman/1480195/quotes/nls/tlt TLT -1.34% relative to the 7-10 Year Treasury ETF /quotes/zigman/1480156/quotes/nls/ief IEF -0.33% . That ratio has factually behaved as if Lehman has already passed ( http://www.bloomberg.com/video/94069685-making-the-bullish-case-for-stocks.html ). Let me reiterate: the bond market has behaved like a Lehman event/credit seize-up has actually occurred."
    "The payout for betting against the crowd and bull market in fear must by definition be significant because everyone else internally within the markets has bet on the negative narrative as if it is a 100% certainty that the whole thing is going down. Yet, the Black Swan of all Black Swans is that something positive happens, and that the end of the world gets avoided. Note that this is not a counter argument to the long-term bears/deflationists, who may be right over time. I am addressing an extreme that contextually does not make sense for the here and now. Fear is rarely "preemptive," and the crowd is rarely ever right at the extremes. Furthermore, because 2008 happened, that is the story everyone has anchored on to ... that is the map everyone is using to navigate this environment. But it's a completely different forest."
    We'll see. I'm buying index-based ETFs such as SPY or SSO when the markets go up, and shifting into cash or inverse ETFs when they go down. My buy and sell signals are coming from State of the Markets' Daily Decision Service. (Unfortunately, I can't relay them here because the Daily Decision Service is a paid subscription-based service.)
    Michael Ashbaugh charts technical breakdown.
    Mick Weinstein: Where's the volatility?   
    Cody Willard warns about Nailing a market bottom. "Cody will never forget the hard lessons learned from one particular market bottom."   
    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market  
    Technical Talk- Hope vs. Reality Battle Rages On 
    Just Who Is That Expert Guest-  "We have written several times in this space on the potential hazards to your portfolio in listening to the latest market “guidance” or specific stock “recommendations” by the panelists or guests you may hear on a financial news network. There is no need to go through all the reasons why this is a bad practice and simple common sense, which we all admittedly lack at times, should tell you it is a bad idea. But it is hard to resist the siren song when that “professional” you respect is making a compelling case for why the market is certain to go up or down, or why that stock is the next AAPL or the next RIMM. But whether that expert ... Read More »
    Spain Reverses Position, Says Country is Shut Out of Credit Markets  
    Market Mover: EFSF Preparing Credit Line For Spain
    G-7 Call Produces Little, No Statement to be Issued  
    ISM Non-Manufacturing Report Above Consensus    
    The Game is About Hope Versus Reality 

    Market futures are modestly (~⅓ %) higher tonight.


2012-6-4: (Monday Night): The markets closed mixed today: U.S. stocks shed most losses on Fed hopes; Stocks choppy as fear trade continues . The NASDAQ Composite closed up 12.53 points (0.46%) to end at 2,760.01. The Dow declined 17.18 points (-0.14%) to close at  12,101.39; the S&P 500 minced up 0.13 points (0.01%) to settle at 1,278.17. Oil ended the day at 84.18: Oil futures top $84 ahead of Nymex settlement; gold logged off at 1616: Gold futures close with a loss of over $8. The VIX dropped 0.82 to 25.84.
    "U.S. stocks in the red after a report on factory orders shows a decline, in contrast to economists' expectations. Concerns over sluggish U.S. jobs growth, a China slowdown, and a tottering Spanish banking system are all weighing on sentiment."
    "
Worries about a global growth slowdown and uncertainty surrounding Europe's debt crisis kept investors on edge and stock trading choppy Monday. More"
    The markets closed Friday in a panic state. Now, the markets may be quite oversold and susceptible to a dead-cat bounce.
    Given that high-frequency traders are using keyword-driven, headline-based trading programs, it would seem to me to be a simple matter, if one owned the major financial-media outlets, to implement one's own trades a millisecond or two before one's headline releases reached the high-frequency trading practitioners.

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. factory orders decline  "Orders for goods produced in U.S. factories decline 0.6% in April, the Commerce Department reports."
    Summer slowdown  "
With investors in a sour mood and volumes set to lighten, check out MarketWatch's experts on trading one of the year's most challenging months."
    Mark Hulbert asks: Will the summer rally begin in June?
    Go away in May, come back in June
    Playing Europe in the near term
    European Central Bank's 7 phases  "Central banker Mario Draghi (left) must navigate an obstacle course that appears to hinge largely on developments in Spain, writes David Marsh."
    Soros: Clock's ticking on ending Europe crisis  
    Germany may yet be open to euro bonds  
    Europe weighs bank recapitalization via ESM  
    Spain's Rajoy calls for more EU control  
    Portugal's retrenchment deemed on track  
    Cyprus may be next to seek bailout  
    G-7 set to talk Europe on Tuesday  
    Craig Stephen observes: This Week in China: The slowdown spreads  
    China’s services show economic weakness             
    U.S. 10-year yields erase rise from record low  In other words, the "risk-off" flight to safety is back on.
    Nigam Arora writes The great bond bubble joins the S&P  
    Small-business slowdown  "Lawmakers in D.C. have criticized banks for not lending enough to small businesses. But is the blame misplaced?"
    Cody Willard explains Why I’m buying this market. "Lessons from Cody's hedge fund days taught him to buy when there is panic."   
    Get ready for Dow 11,000  
    Michael Gayad explains Why another stock melt-up is likely.  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Sometimes It's Easy "Sometimes understanding what is going on in the markets is pretty straightforward and Monday appears to be one of those times. The charts tell us ... Read More »"
    The Dance Continues  "Here we go again. While I'm not sure exactly how many times we've done this dance before, it looks as if the European leaders have come up with the latest and greatest plan to save the day. Just when investors appear to have given up hope and that stock prices around the globe are about to get a lot worse than they already are (if Friday's dive in the major indices didn't spell out this idea then the record low in bond and bund yields, the spike in the UUP (U.S. dollar) and the GLD (gold etf), as well as the ongoing fall in commodity ... Read More »
    Why a 'Grexit' Would Make Lehman Look Like Childs Play  "Maybe I’m wrong, but every time I look at the possibility of a Greek exit right now I see it spiraling out of control and dragging down the entire global economy. I hear and read the arguments of why it is controllable and they just don’t seem credible. They either... "
    Europe Update: Germany Softening Opposition to Eurobonds-  
    China's Services PMI Pulls Back in May    
      
    On Friday, I wrote, " This week ended with the markets falling off a cliff. Let's see what happens this weekend." In fact, nothing happened this weekend, but this morning, Eurozone principals made soothing remarks, and market futures went from very negative to somewhat positive.
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2012-6-1: (Friday Night): The markets dove today on weaker-than- expected U. S. economic data: U.S. stocks sink as global growth view teeters; Stocks slammed as Dow erases 2012 gains; Stocks' worst day in 6 mos; S&P 500, down 10% since April, is in correction; . The NASDAQ Composite closed down 79.86 points (-2.82%) to end at 2,747.48. The Dow deflated 274.88 points (-2.22%) to close at  12,118.57; the S&P 500 declined 32.29 points (-2.46%) to settle at 1,310.33. Oil ended the day at 83.25: lOil ends well below $84, loses over 8% on week; gold logged off at 1561: Gold scores biggest single-day gain since August. The VIX jumped 2.60 to 26.66.
    "Stocks dive 2% or more, wiping out 2012 gains, as U.S. jobs data sparks fears of a slowdown."
    "
Wall Street suffered its bloodiest day of the year Friday as U.S. stocks sank more than 2% following an ugly jobs report. The Dow erased all its gains for the year, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved into correction territory, down more than 10% from the year's highs. More"
    The S&P 500 index has closed below its two-week-ago lows and just below its 200-day moving average, and faces little resistance all the way down to the 1205 level. The intermediate term trend is no longer up.
   
An alternative scenario is presented in this article: Friday Fake Out: The Bear Trap Has Sprung. The author suggests that The Fed may try to reverse this market rout over the weekend. If so, today's action could turn out to be a final bear market washout, followed by a rebound. 
    If not, the author says he will be a lot more bearish on Monday morning. 

     
    Marketwatch says: 
   
S&P 500 in 10% correction  "The S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -2.47% fell 2.4% on Friday, taking the index of large-cap U.S. stocks more than 10% off its 52-week intraday high -- or what many analysts term a correction. The Nasdaq Composite /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP -2.83% had already met that definition ahead of Friday's stock retreat and is now 12% lower than its recent high. The Dow is 9% below its 52-week peak. A correction for stocks "doesn't mean we're in a bear market. But it does mean you have to recalibrate for a world where the U.S. is going to barely grow 2%, Europe is a chronic source of stress, and emerging markets at least for now, are not contributing much," said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock iShares."
    U.S. 10-year yields fall under 1.50% after jobs  
    Employment, economic growth slow down  
    Dollar facing Fed pressure  "Greenback gives ground as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will be driven to action by weak gains in U.S. job market"
    U.S. adds 69,000 jobs in May.  "The U.S. generates the fewest new jobs in a year as the unemployment rate ticks up."
    2012 gain gone  "Stocks skid on U.S. jobs report and data from China and Europe. Dow turns negative for year."
    The price of a do-nothing Congress  "The focus on austerity has forced the U.S. job market into a holding pattern, Heather Boushey says."
    Rex Nutting writes: Investments in the future have dried up  "During the Great Depression, we built roads and bridges and infrastructure we enjoy today. Now, Rex Nutting says, we're seeing spending tumble."
    Construction spending up.  
    Factory index declines a bit  
    Mark Hulbert notes that GDP growth 1% higher than month ago.  
    GDP: Reasons to be cheerful  
    Myra Saefong writes about Gold’s new identity crisis.  
    tFor Spaniards, there’s no going back to the peseta 
    Irish voters back fiscal treaty in referendum
    Euro-zone manufacturing downshifts in May.
    Peter Brimelow asks: Is your stock a tennis ball or an egg?  

    Friday Fake Out: The Bear Trap Has Sprung    
    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    May Jobs Report a Big Disappointment  "The Big Kahuna of economic reports - aka Nonfarm Payrolls - showed that the economy created just 69,000 jobs during the month of May. This was a huge miss as expectations had been for ... Read More »"
    Are You Prepared for the Summer of Discontent III?  "Sell in May and go away. It appears that is just about everything an investor needs to know these days. You see, selling in May certainly worked well in 2006, it eventually saved you some pain in 2007, was prophetic in 2008, modestly profitable in 2009, very helpful in 2010, a life saver in 2011, and a darned good idea this year as the S&P 500 fell -6.27% last month. To be honest, I'm not completely sure why this old Wall Streetism works. But this year the reasons were pretty simple as it appears that investors are headed for yet ... Read More »
    ISM Report Shows Growth Slowing  
    Construction Spending Up Modestly in April   
    Personal Income and Spending Report No Help  
    Eurozone PMI's (Final) Show Contraction Continues  
    China's Official PMI Pulls Back in May    
      
    This week ended with the markets falling off a cliff. Let's see what happens this weekend.


2012-5-31: (Thursday Night): The markets fell a little today: U.S. stocks drop 6% in May, worst for Dow in 2 yrs; Dow, Nasdaq: Worst month in two years. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 10.02 points (-0.35%) to end at 2,827.34. The Dow climbed 26.41 points (-0.21%) to close at  12,393.45; the S&P 500 declined 2.99 points (-0.23%) to settle at 1,310.33. Oil ended the day at 86.68: Oil's 17% drop in May is worst since Dec. 2008; gold logged off at 1561: Gold futures slip after economic data. The VIX slipped 0.06 to 24.06.     Technically speaking, the markets are retesting their two-week-ago  lows.
    "Stocks clear bulk of losses, but Dow industrials still suffer their first monthly loss in eight" 
    "U.S. stocks finished in the red Thursday, ending a wretched month on a weak note. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    IMF looking at Spain bailout: report  
    Kevin Marder says that Europe goes from messy to messier.
    Irish voters expected to back EU’s fiscal compact  
    St. Louis Fed's Bullard: Europe action needed.  
    Euro bounces back as weak U.S. data in spotlight  
    Ireland voting on EU fiscal compact  
    Matthew Lynn says Spain will leave euro first 
    Harry Dent sees Germany quitting euro  "Harry Dent mulls prospect that Germany, not Greece or Spain, will quit Eurozone."
    David Callaway says Markets will rally when Greece leaves euro.
    Global crisis plays out in NY’s gold market
    ADP: May private-sector payrolls up 133,000

    First-time jobless claims trend higher  
    U.S. GDP revised down to 1.9% growth rate
    Chicago PMI down again, hinting at recession  
    Cleveland Fed's Pianalto: Cyclical weakness  
    Moves to make if the U.S. gets downgraded  
    Goldman sees significant opportunity in Europe  
    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: The Retest is On  
    Does Any Of It Really Matter?  "It was a tough day for the S&P 500 on Wednesday as the blue chip index gave back 1.43%, which wiped out the entire gain seen over the prior five sessions. I'm told it was a "90% down day" as down volume swamped up volume by more than 14 to 1 and that the all-important 50-day moving average was breached to the downside. Other harbingers of bad things to come included the Euro (FXE) diving to lowest level in two years, gold (GLD) and the dollar (UUP) surging, commodities (DBC) plunging, the VIX (VXZ) spiking, and the yield on the ... Read More »
    Market Mover: IMF Working On Contigency Plan for Spain  
    Spain Follow-Up: Spain Says No Plans in Works   
    "We Are Programmed to Receive" Redux  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Improves  
    Chicago PMI At Lowest Level Since Sept 2009  
    U.S. GDP Growth Revised Lower for First Quarter 
    Weekly Jobless Claims Higher Continue To Rise  
    ADP Employment Report: Job Growth Below Expectations  
      
    Market futures are ~½ % lower tonight.


2012-5-30: (Wednesday Night): The markets fell today: Street hit over Europe fears; Stocks gain as worries about Europe abate. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 33.46 points (1.18%) to end at 2,870.99. The Dow climbed 125.86 points (1.01%) to close at  12,580.69; the S&P 500 declined 14.86 points (1.11%) to settle at 1,332.42. Oil ended the day at 90.75: Oil posts modest retreat as the dollar gains; gold logged off at 1556: Gold loses over $20 as dollar gains on Spain. The VIX slipped 0.59 to 21.17.  
    "Major indexes rise on positive signs from Greece, but euro's drop below $1.25 rattles a few nerves." 
    "U.S. stocks rose Tuesday as investors welcomed a lack of negative headlines out of Europe and hopes that China will move to support its economy. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Spain worse than Greece?  "Matthew Lynn lists six reasons why Spain is more likely to pull out of the euro than Greece."
    Irish voters expected to back EU’s fiscal compact  "Ireland, two years after its bailout, is expected to shrug off warnings of further austerity and come out in support of tighter, European Union-mandated budget and debt controls."
    Michael Gayad writes Think stocks can’t rise 40% in 2012? Think again.  
    Mark Hulbert: Dow's 'textbook' bear signal (video)  
    Poll: Most Greeks want revamp of bailout terms 
    Euro zone's business confidence slumps  
    Worst is yet to come
    Spain yields push higher
   
German 2-year yields fall to zero
    Europe floats use of permanent fund for banks  
    John Nyardi suggests Three options in uncertain European times 
    Pending home sales off in April 
    Distress is easing for U.S. households (audio)  
    Treasury yields hit record low on Spain worries  
    Euro falls below $1.25  "The U.S. dollar rises toward its strongest level against the euro in almost two years after downgrade of Spanish government debt."
    Are T-bonds sending us a warning? 
    Irwin Kellner tells us that there is No such thing as a free lunch  
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: The Best Way To Play Is  
    Either All News Is Good News, Or...  "After one of the most dismal starts to almost any month on record, the market has certainly perked up a bit since the 18th of May. Although the same can't be said for facebook (FB) or RIMM, the S&P 500 has been higher five of the last six sessions and has tacked on nearly 3% in the process. The 'little bounce that could' has helped to limit some of May's market misery as the S&P is now down just 4.68% on the month. While that hardly seems like good news, let's keep in mind that our furry friends in the bear camp have pretty much ... Read More »
    Pending Home Sales Tank in April  
    China Backs Away From Reports on Major Stimulus   
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Turned Cautious  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Rises Modestly  
    Eurozone Confidence Continues To Decline  
    European Commission Supports Bank Recapitalization and Eurobonds 
      
    Market futures are slightly lower tonight.


2012-5-29: (Tuesday Night): The markets rose today an U.S. stocks gain on Greece, stimulus hopes; Stocks gain as worries about Europe abate. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 33.46 points (1.18%) to end at 2,870.99. The Dow climbed 125.86 points (1.01%) to close at  12,580.69; the S&P 500 declined 14.86 points (1.11%) to settle at 1,332.42. Oil ended the day at 90.75: Oil posts modest retreat as the dollar gains; gold logged off at 1556: Gold loses over $20 as dollar gains on Spain. The VIX slipped 0.59 to 21.17.  
    "Major indexes rise on positive signs from Greece, but euro's drop below $1.25 rattles a few nerves." 
    "U.S. stocks rose Tuesday as investors welcomed a lack of negative headlines out of Europe and hopes that China will move to support its economy. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Canadian bank’s stress-test pro talks Europe  "The head of TD Bank’s stress tests says he doesn’t expect Greece to exit euro but has modeled it. Here's what he's learned."
    China stimulus won't match 2008: report  "Senior Chinese economists say the central government's much-touted stimulus plans will be milder than actions taken at the height of the global financial crisis, according to a state-media report ."
    It's 'a great time to buy stocks'  
    'June gloom' clouds stock market  
    David Marsh: High Noon for the euro 
    Mark Hulbert: Time to bet on euro
    Swiss look past euro (video)
   
Credit Suisse: Greece exit could boost S&P 500
    May data show consumer-confidence slip 
    U.S. home prices flat in March: Case-Shiller 
    Distress is easing for U.S. households (audio)  
    Treasurys gain after Spain downgrade  
    Euro falls below $1.25  "The U.S. dollar rises toward its strongest level against the euro in almost two years after downgrade of Spanish government debt."
    Are T-bonds sending us a warning? 
    Irwin Kellner tells us that there is No such thing as a free lunch  
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Bulls Have Regained Possession
    Today's Focus: It's All About Chinese Stimulus  "Although there are problems with Spanish banks today, at least for this morning, the focus of the stock market seems to have shifted from Europe to the hope that the Chinese will begin stimulating their economy in earnest. China's stock market rose again on Tuesday, as the benchmark Shanghai index moved up to a two-week high (the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.2%). The key driver to the action appears to be speculation that the government will take additional stimulative measures ... Read More »
    Consumer Confidence Falls Again In May  
    Case-Shiller Home Price Index Declines Again in March    
      
    Market futures are down ½% tonight.


2012-5-25: (Friday Night): The markets rose today and then slid into the close: U.S. stocks stumble on trouble in Spain; Stocks snap three-week losing streak. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 1.85 points (-0.07%) to end at 2,837.53. The Dow crumpled 74.92 points (-0.60%) to close at  12,454.83; the S&P 500 declined 2.86 points (-0.22%) to settle at 1,317.82. Oil ended the day at 90.70: Oil holds to tenuous gains after consumer data; gold logged off at 1574: Gold ends higher but notches weekly losses. The VIX slipped 0.22 to 21.76.  
    "U.S. stocks fell Friday, but ended higher for the week, as concerns about the debt crisis in Europe weighed on the market ahead of a long weekend. More

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Canadian bank’s stress-test pro talks Europe  "The head of TD Bank’s stress tests says he doesn’t expect Greece to exit euro but has modeled it. Here's what he's learned."
    Michael Gayad warns that Crash risk could turn Spring Switch to Ditch
    CEOs run around Enron rule 
    Businesses go into wait-and-see mode
 
    Investors may be headed toward a ‘fiscal cliff’  
    EU should urge U.S. to avoid 'fiscal cliff 
    S&P downgrades Bankia, Banco Popular to junk  
    It’s more than just a bad bet for Dimo
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Greece and the Swimming Pool Syndrome  "I really don’t wish to offend anyone but I keep having this troubling mental image. No, it is not THAT kind of image… shame on you. It is one related to the Greek situation. I am sitting at a beautiful outdoor waterfront patio dining area with my wife and friends at sunset in the upscale New York beachy Hamptons. Moored at the dock is an absolutely huge, sleek ocean-going yacht, likely worth tens of millions. There is obviously a lively cocktail party going on and we can see what look to be “older” fiftyish and sixtyish men and some quite beautiful young women. Now what the heck does that have to do with Greece? First of all, that image is ... Read More »"
    UofM's Consumer Sentiment Index Highest Since Oct 2007   
      
    The markets are continuing to bob up and down, riding the waves from.Europe.


2012-5-24: (Thursday Night): The markets dove today and then climbed back up, ending about where they started: Street stages a comeback; U.S. stocks end mixed amid Europe worries. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 11.04 points (-0.38%) (almost exactly as much as it rose yesterday) to end at 2,839.38. The Dow jumped 33.6 points (0.27%) to close at  12,529.75; the S&P 500 advanced 1.82 points (0.14%) to settle at 1,357.50. Oil ended the day at 90.96: Oil on rebound, back above $90 a barrel; gold logged off at 1560: Gold rebounds, ends three-day losing streak. The VIX slipped 0.79 to 21.54.  
    "Dow industrials regain positive territory with blue chip Hewlett-Packard rallying after a large-scale
job-cut announcement. Nasdaq finishes in the red, but is off day's worst levels."
    "U.S. stocks finished mixed Thursday, as investors reacted to a batch of lackluster U.S. economic data and ongoing concerns about Europe's debt crisis and the risk of Greece exiting the eurozone. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Darrell Delamaide note that Private-equity debate marks silly season.
    Peter Brimelow writes Successful bull stays serene
    Bank profits at highest level since 2007: FDIC
    Debt crisis now taking toll on German economy
    U.S. sells 7-yr debt at 1.203%; bonds stay down  
    Treasury yields move up from near-record lows
    Downside risks key to rate hike  "Short-term interest rates are likely to remain ultra-low until late 2014, Fed's Dudley says."
  
    Requests for jobless benefits fall slightly  
    U.S. mortgage rates little changed last week  
    Spending slump could be trouble  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Will It Be Different This Time? 
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    The Return of the Rumor Rampage
 "So we're back to that. The shoot first, ask questions later, and oh by the way, don't bother me with any details type of market environment, that is. If you will recall, investors were treated to a brutal period of volatility during the last go-round with the Greek crisis that occurred from August through mid-December of 2011. During this nightmare of a market, an environment many professionals called the most difficult they'd seen in 30 years, stocks would soar or plunge based on the latest rumor, comment, or headline from across the pond. Traders didn't bother to check their facts or examine the logic; they simply programmed their computers to ... Read More »"
    Two Outspoken Critics of the Facebook IPO Process  "The Facebook IPO has been an unmitigated disaster on many fronts. But perhaps the most glaring aspect is the fact that individual investor once again got the short end of the stick ... Read More »
    Europe Update: Summit Summary  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Upticks      
    Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI Reading Falls in May  
    Durable Goods Report Disappointing in April  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Hold Steady  
    Eurozone PMI's (Preliminary) Continue to Pull Back  
    German IFO Sentiment Index Falls Hard in May  
      
    Market futures are 0.1% negative tonight.


2012-5-23: (Wednesday Night): The markets dove today and then climbed back up, ending about where they started: Street stages a comeback; Stocks erase hefty losses. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 11.04 points (0.39%) to end at 2,850.12. The Dow eased another 6.66 points (-0.05%) to close at  12,496.15; the S&P 500 advanced 2.23 points (0.17%) to settle at 1,318.86. Oil ended the day  at 89.90: Oil ends below $90 for first time since October; gold logged off at 1548.40: Gold futures below $1,550 at the close. The VIX slipped 0.15 to 22.33.  
    "Dow recovers from a roughly 200-point drop; Nasdaq and S&P finish with modest gains."
    "After nearly a full day in the red, stocks erased most of their losses in the last half hour of trading Wednesday. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Nice words for Greece but no euro-bond deal.
    ‘Astonished’ Merkel says no to euro bonds
    Michael Casey: Fear glues Greece to euro
    The New Tigers: complete special report
    Poland, Turkey offer higher risk, more reward
    Michael Gayad explains Why crash risk remains very real  
  
    Lawrence MacMillan says that Stocks are severely undersold  
    Near-perfect indicator says buy now  
    Mark Hulbert writes Insiders help bull market dodge bullet  
    EU leaders want Greece to stay; no eurobond deal  
    Matthew lynn points out that Euro collapse needn’t sink global economy.
    Irwin Kellner writes Better red ink than dead economy    
    Lagarde: liability-sharing needed  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
    Let's Just Stop All The Pretending
. "We need to call a spade a spade here. So many analysts, managers, and pundits come on TV to tell us - with absolute certainty, by the way - (a) what the market is going to do next, (b) what will happen next to the economy, (c) what the Fed will do and when, and (d) what will happen in Europe. However, the bottom line is that nobody can predict any of this stuff because all of the above is intertwined as well as tied to data that we don't have yet and events that haven't occurred yet. So, as investors, we all need to collectively stop pretending we know what is going to happen ... Read More »"
    New Home Sales and Prices Rise in April
    FHFA House Price Index Improves in March  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Pulls Back      
    NAAIM Index Shows Managers Modestly Bullish  
    European Governments Asked to Prepare Contingency Plans for Greek Exit  
    CBO: US to Fall Into Recession if 'Fiscal Cliff' Not Addressed  
    Spain To Ask ECB to Buy Its Bonds  
      
    Market futures are down a few hundredths of a percent tonight.


2012-5-22: (Tuesday Night): The markets yo-yoed up and down today, ending about where they started: Stock market runs ragged; Stocks turn lower on new Greece worries. The NASDAQ Composite closed off 8.13 points (-0.29%) to end at 2,839.08. The Dow eased 1.67 points (-0.01%) to close at  12,502.82; the S&P 500 incremented 0.64 points (0.05%) to settle at 1,316.63. Oil ended the day  at 91.56: Oil below $92 a barrel; gold logged off at 1588: Gold marginally lower amid gains for other metals. The VIX rose 0.47 to 22.48.  
    "Gains evaporate as investors look askance at Europe, but recover most of their losses."
    "U.S. stocks turned sharply lower during the final hour of trading before recovering to end Tuesday relatively flat, as worries over Greece overshadowed upbeat U.S. economic reports. More"

    Last night, I wrote: "What happens after this bounce is what counts." That's still true. Today's action might be followed by a continuation of the decline, but a lot will depend upon the headlines. We're again back in a "risk-off", news-driven trading environment.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Jon Markman observes that Swift European unity could spur epic rally.
    Michael Ashbaugh presents Technical Indicator: Charting corrective bounce 
    Commentary: Loose talk destroying euro zone
    Mark Hulbert on Indicators of a market top "If bull market ended in May, it will have been an unusual demise."
    Paul Farrell: How Facebook threatens U.S. economy
    Insights on taxes and the wealthy  
  
    Stock market is getting cheap  
    Obama spending binge never happened  
    Members of Senate Banking Committee took Wall Street cash  
    SEC, CFTC looking into J.P. Morgan and disclosure rules  
    David Marsh writes: Senators seek Fed board shake-up  "Fallout from J.P. Morgan's trading loss spreads as two lawmakers moved not only to have CEO Jamie Dimon, but all bankers removed from boardrooms of the 12 Federal Reserve regional banks."
    Irwin Kellner writes Better red ink than dead economy    
    Lagarde: liability-sharing needed  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Sticking To The Script  
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market
  
    Facebook Fallout "Oh, we know you might have had it up to your eyeballs on the non-stop commentary on Facebook’s IPO and the numerous issues which have led to quite a bit of finger-pointing. And you might be “punned out” by all the witty commentary. “Facebook Faceplant” (failure to hold the offering price) “Zuckerberg’s Big Post-IPO Merger” (his marriage) “Facebook’s IPO Not Making Many Friends” (on today’s further price drop, with lows of $31.00 as of this writing and a bit of a bounce but well below the $38 offering) But we don’t think we would be doing our job if we did not point out some of the bigger issues here and also a couple of ... Read More »"
    Man vs. Machine: A Real-Time Example  "Everybody knows that computerized trading accounts for the vast majority of trading on Wall Street these days. However, here is an example of the machines getting it wrong... ... Read More »"
    Existing Home Sales Up 3.4% in April; Prices Up  
    Support for Eurobonds Gaining Momentum But...      
    Spanish Bank Losses Could Hit 260 Billion  
    Revisiting The Correction Playbook  
    OECD Cuts Eurozone Growth Forecast; Supports Eurobonds and Growth Measures  
      
    Market futures are down ½% tonight.


2012-5-21: (Monday Night): It's dead-cat bounce time on Wall Street: Dow snaps losing streak; Nasdaq's best day in 5 mos; ; Stocks rebound on Europe hopes. The NASDAQ Composite leaped a hefty 68.42 points (2.46%) to end at 2,847.21. The Dow sprang up 135.1 points (1.09%) to close at  12,504.48; the S&P 500 hopped 20.77 points (1.50%) to settle at 1,315.99. Oil ended the day  at 91.56: Oil below $92 a barrel; gold logged off at 1588: Gold marginally lower amid gains for other metals. The VIX fell a resounding 3.09 to 22.01.  
    "A plunge in Facebook's stock didn't faze the broader U.S. market Monday. U.S. stocks bounced back from their worst week of the year on renewed optimism that European leaders would find a way out of the sovereign debt crisis. More"
    "Stocks bounce back following Wall Street's worst week of the year. Dow rallies triple digits."

   What happens after this bounce is what counts. Michael Gayed's article (below) explains that, in his view, the next few days will be critical in determining the longer-term course of the market indices. He has been calling for a reflation, leading to a wholesale shift from bonds to stocks with rises that could approximate 40% by year's-end. However, over the past week or two, spreads on bond yields have been rising, along with a renewed search for safety, engendering ever-lower interest rates for U. S. Treasury bonds... ominous signs. If the economic backdrop becomes more reassuring and investors again switch from "risk-off" to "risk-on" mindsets, then his "Spring Switch from bonds to stocks can still take place, with stocks going markedly higher. If not, the stock markets could go markedly lower. He thinks we're at a watershed, foreshadowing a major move one way or the other.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayad says Critical moment is at hand. "My hypothesis that we will see reflation and a surge of capital into stocks is still in play, but the credit issues I pointed out last week may still have a say."
    Why the market top for 2012 may be in
    Expect to see Dow 11,000 before Dow 14,000
    Profit from Europe's coming disaster
    Chuck Jaffe tells us When to let headlines lead your investments.
    A strategic plan for this market  
  
    Euro recovers from lowest since January  
    Banks, drug makers lift European stocks, Spain off  
    Coming Eurobond clash  
    G-8 wants to keep Greece in euro zone  
    David Marsh writes: Pressure mounts on the European Central Bank to save euro  
    Treasurys mostly up; yields near record lows  
    Peter Brimelow notes that Gold bushwhacks bears.  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: A Bounce Is To Be Expected  "After a one-way move such as we've seen over the past three weeks, a bounce - of the dead-cat variety - is to be expected. However, it is what comes next that really counts ... Read More »"
    Isn't It Time For Something Good To Happen?
  "Good morning. With the market now down twelve of the last thirteen sessions, it is fairly obvious that we've got a corrective phase on our hands. Although the S&P is down "just" -7.8% during the current pullback, the fact that this move has been almost completely devoid of any upside makes things feel worse than they actually are. For there is little doubt that anyone still on the long side of the game fears a replay of last August's 17% dive over 17 days or the summer of 2010's correction of -16%. In addition, there appears to be little-to-no hope available to owners of equities ... Read More »"
    The Anatomy of a Correction (How We Dealt and What We Can Learn)  "Option Income Generator manager David W. offers his views on the current correction and how his service has dealt with the big price declines. ... Read More »"
    Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises in April  
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes From The Week That Was      
      
    Market futures are flat tonight..


2012-5-18: (Friday Night): Down we go, with the the S&P 500 breaking through iys support level of 1300 to close at 1295: Longest weekly down streak of 2012 for Dow, S&P; Nasdaq benchmarks slide into technical correction; Stocks: Worst week of the year. The NASDAQ Composite slid another 34.90 points (-1.24%) to end at 2,778.79. The Dow dropped another 78.00 points (-0.63%) to close at  12,335.00; the S&P 500 tumbled another 10.50 points (-0.81%) to settle at 1,295.22. Oil ended the day  at 91.16: Oil below $92 a barrel; gold logged off at 1590: Gold futures bounce higher as dollar weakens. The VIX rose 0.61 to 25.10.  
    "Crude-oil futures end week roughly 5% lower on concerns about global growth and oil demand."
    "Dow and S&P set to suffer losses for a third straight week, which would be their longest weekly losing streak so far this year."

    "Stocks closed out an ugly week. Despite initial euphoria surrounding Facebook's public debut, the social network's shares barely popped above its offering price and failed to inspire investors to buy into the broader market. More."  
    
    I'm happy I'm in cash, and I'm still anticipating the expected extremely-oversold bounce.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayad says Forget Facebook, stocks are at risk.
    Mark Hulbert explains What Dow Theory says about correction. In essence, Dow theory predicts that when the Dow Transportation Index fails to confirm a run-up in the Dow Industrials, the Industrials will correct, followed by a retest of the high, and then a retest of the lows.
    According to Dow theory, there will be a bounce coming up that will approach the recent high (a little above 1400), followed by a retest of whatever low we reach before this predicted bounce. 
    Myra Saefong suggests Don’t give up on oil yet: Commodities Corner
    Cody Willard asks: Are you Ready for water inflation?
    Chuck Jaffe says The mind is a terrible way to trade.
    Greece says Merkel asked for euro referendum  
  
    Obama: G-8 to focus on managing euro zone crisis  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    G-8 Meet in Camp David To Plot Strategy For Euro Crisis  
   
EU, ECB Reportedly Working On Contingency Plans for Greek Exit     Fed May Opt For Another Operation Twist      
      
    As usual, there's practically no news on Friday night.


2012-5-17: (Thursday Night): The markets sank yet again today: The slow-mo stock decline; Stocks end at 4-month lows. The NASDAQ Composite slid another 60.35 points (-2.10%) to end at 2,813.69. The Dow plunged another 161.00 points (-1.28%) to close at  12,442.49; the S&P 500 tumbled another 19.94 points (-1.51%) to settle at 1,304.86. Oil ended the day  at 92.75: Oil notches fifth losing session; gold logged off at 1574: Gold higher on relief rally after 10-month low. The VIX rose 2.22 to 24.49.  
    "A disappointing gauge of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region added to worries about Europe to keep stocks in the red again. J.P. Morgan lower on report losses may be closer to $3 billion."
    "Stocks get further knocked after a disappointing read on manufacturing adds to Europe fears."

    "Investors fled stocks and flocked toward the safety of U.S. Treasuries Thursday as worries about Greece's future in the eurozone continued to escalate. More"   
    The S&P 500, having broken a major resistance level at 1340, is now defenseless down to its next major resistance level at 1300. The sticking points are Europe (Greece and Spain) and suggestions that the U. S. economy may be faltering as Europe enters recession.
    I'm entirely in cash, and anticipating the expected extremely-oversold bounce.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Philly Fed factory index turns negative in May.
    Claims unchanged.
    Leading indicators dip in April
    Mortgage rates fall to record lows with 30-year at 3.79%
    U.S. 10-year yields hit lowest closing level ever  
    Are the bears due for a win?  
    H-P to lay off thousands  "Reports surface that Hewlett-Packard is planning to cut as many as 30,000 jobs."
    Lawrence McMillan: In focus: Oversold, but wounded.  
    Kevin Marder warns that Every bear market starts with a correction.  
    Darrell Delamaide notes that Deficit talk distracts from real issues  
    Michael Ashbaugh points out that the Nasdaq edges under 10-year support  
    Spain clears bond sale, borrowing costs rise  
    Spain's Bankia triggers stock rout in Europe.  
    Spain GDP contracts as austerity hits spending  
    Spain's Bankia: Depositors have nothing to fear  
    Moody's cuts ratings on 16 Spanish banks  
    More ECB unconventional easing may be needed- IMF  
    Banks might need to raise $566 billion: Fitch  
    Peter Brimelow asks Is oil spoiled?  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
   
Why Greece Does and Doesn't Matter "Good morning. Stocks have been down ten of the last eleven sessions. According to Bespoke, the NYSE Advance/Decline line is now at one of the most oversold levels seen since 1990. The talking heads on T.V. told us yesterday that the NASDAQ is now officially in "correction" territory. The S&P has fallen 6.6% since April 2nd. And the global equity markets have reportedly lost $3 trillion in value since the beginning of May. All thanks to Greece - a country whose GDP is barely larger than that of Houston, Texas. If you are anything like me, I'm fairly confident that you are tired of hearing about almost anything related to ... Read More »"         
    Philly Fed Index Surprises With Big Miss in May            
    Leading Economic Indicators Also Miss Expectations 
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Sags  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Hold Steady at Higher Levels    
    JPMorgan Trade Loss Now Exceeds $3 Billion (And Counting)  
    Spanish Bond Auction Sees Yields Continue to Rise      
    Spain Officially In Recession  
    Japanese GDP Above Expectations in Q1  
      
    Market futures are 0.2% higher tonight.


2012-5-16: (Wednesday Night): The markets sank again today on the news coming out of Europe: U.S. stocks lose steam; Dow loses ground; Greece worries weigh on U.S. stocks. The NASDAQ Composite slid another 19.72 points (-0.68%) to end at 2,893.76. The Dow sank another 33.45 points (-0.26%) to close at  12,598.55; the S&P 500 subtracted another 5.86 points (-0.44%) to settle at 1,324.80. Oil ended the day  at 92.79: Oil ends at lowest since November, under $93; gold logged off at 1540: Gold at 10-month low, holds to $1,500 an ounce. The VIX climbed 0.30 to 22.27. "Crude-oil prices keep sliding as energy-market bears feast on a strong dollar, a weak economy, and Saudi assurances on supply (First Take)."
    "Dow industrials suffer 10th loss in past 11 days as U.S. stocks lose grasp of day's gains."
    "Following a positive start, U.S. stocks struggled to hold on to gains Wednesday afternoon, as investors weighed strong U.S. economic data against ongoing uncertainty about Greece's political situation. More"

      
     Permanent Link to Eurodämmerung  What this Paul-Krugman article says is that he and some associates foresee:
"
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing. 
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro."
   
This may possibly explain today's stock market malaise.
    
    Marketwatch says: 
   
Dollar adds to longest rally in two decades.
    
Housing market's most growth in four years.
    Industrial output rebounds
    Wary and watchful at Fed  "Central-bank policy makers not sufficiently confident in recent economic indicators to upgrade their description of the economy, as “several” say more easing could be needed if momentum slows."
    Thomas H. Kee's counsels Avoiding both sides of the bond market  
    Michael Gayed presents The most important question in the world.  
    Mark Hulbert enunciates The real 'Dimon Principle'  
    Dow’s bearish double top takes shape  
    Greece gets worst of worlds with no euro decision  
    Matthew Lynn predicts that Berlin will blink, and keep Greece in euro zone.  
    European Central Bank to continue support for Greek banks  
    Rex Nutting notes that Obama and Romney turn from economy  
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
   
Greece Update: What's Next in the Political Circus and Fears of Bank Runs "It looks like a caretaker government is now the next course of action for Greece. Reports indicate that due to the inability of Greek political party leaders to reach a deal on either a unity or a technical government, the focus today shifts to the formation of a caretaker government. The Greek newspaper Kathimerini stated that if the party leaders fail to agree on a candidate to take over as caretaker prime minister, President Karolos Papoulias will then appoint one. In addition, June 17th still seems to be the most likely date for the next election. The article added that the constitution says that in ... Read More"         
    NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index Shows Active Managers Still Optimistic            
    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Above Expectations in April 
    Housing Starts Perk Up in April  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Rebounds Slightly        
      
    Market futures are up 0.4% tonight.


2012-5-15: (Tuesday Night): The markets sank again today on the news coming out of Europe: Dow nears 4-month low; Stocks slide on Greek woes. The NASDAQ Composite moved down 8.82 points (-0.30%) to end at 2,893.76. The Dow slithered farther south 63.35 points (-0.50%) to close at  12,632; the S&P 500 subtracted another 7.69 points (-0.57%) to settle at 1,330.66. Oil ended the day  at 93.32: Oil futures fall, close below $94 a barrel; gold logged off at 1543: Gold settles at 2012 low as dollar gains on Greece. The VIX climbed 0.10 to 21.97.
    "The chance of an 11th-hour deal for a Greek coalition looks increasingly remote, rattling financial markets across the euro zone."
    "All three U.S. stock indexes ended the day down roughly 1% Monday. Investors sold out of stocks on worries over the political and economic stability of the eurozone and the safety of the U.S. banking sector. More"  
       Permanent Link to Eurodämmerung  What this Paul-Krugman article says is that he and some associates foresee:
"
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing. 
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro."
   
This may possibly explain today's stock market malaise.
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Mick Weinstein writes: Don't try to time this chaotic market.
    The fallacy of dollar-cost averaging.
    Thomas H. Kee Jr.: No money for the market
    Dimon may be ‘stupid’ but he’s right on banks  
    Gates’s $4 billion foray into family planning  
    Darrell Delamaide tells of a Stay of execution for Greece in the offing.  
    Euro-zone GDP  
    EU avoids recession as Germany grows  
    Greek depositors withdraw $898 mln  
    Irwin Kellner observes that there's Good news on the labor front.  
    Inflation's cooling won't move Fed  
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
   
Tuesday’s Economic Data Mostly in Line, Manufacturing Surprises  "Tuesday's slew of economic data was mostly in line with consensus expectations, though May's Empire Manufacturing figure did surprise to the upside... ... Read More »."  
    JPMorgan Fallout Continues, But The Question is Buy or Sell-  "Anyone tuning into the financial news media over the past few days has been inundated with split commentary on whether or not JPM is a “screaming buy” or a “run from sell” after being severely punished by the market for its $2.3 billion “whale-like” trading loss. We really don’t mean to come up with a recommendation here or rehash all the news flow, but do want to take a brief look at some of the arguments being put forward, both pro and con. First, let’s review the bidding on the stock itself. JPM is generally acknowledged as the major money center “too big to fail” bank which came out of 2008-2009 in the strongest shape possible, led by the strong-willed and talented Mr. Jamie Dimon. ... Read More »"    
    Gross and Hatzius: Investors Should Prepare for QE3 
      
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2012-5-14: (Monday Night): The markets sank today on the news coming out of Europe: Fears of Greece euro-zone exit rattle markets; Banks keep pressure on U.S. stocks. The NASDAQ Composite moved down 31.24 points (-1.06%) to end at 2,933.82. The Dow went south 125.25 points (-0.98%) to close at  12,695.35; the S&P 500 tanked 15.04 points (-1.11%) to settle at 1,338.35. Oil ended the day  at 94.09: Oil ends below $95 on Saudi comments, Europe woes; gold ended at 1560: Gold futures at lowest in four months. The VIX climbed 1.98 to 21.76.
    "The chance of an 11th-hour deal for a Greek coalition looks increasingly remote, rattling financial markets across the euro zone."
    "All three U.S. stock indexes ended the day down roughly 1% Monday. Investors sold out of stocks on worries over the political and economic stability of the eurozone and the safety of the U.S. banking sector. More"  
       Permanent Link to Eurodämmerung  What this Paul-Krugman article says is that he and some associates foresee:
"
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing. 
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro."
   
This may possibly explain today's stock market malaise.
    
    Marketwatch says: 

    Michael Gayed writes: Is a 'Summer Crash' coming?  "My stance on stocks has nothing to do with being a bull or a bear. What I think is meaningless. It's what the person I sell to thinks that matters." HI conclusion: a summer crash isn't likely, Rather, there is likely to be a melt-up once defensive money starts spilling out of bonds into high-dividend-yielding stocks.
    Latest EU woes pose threat for U.S
    European bourses feel pressure.
    David Marsh: Hope and trepidation for Hollande
    Treasury 10-year yields at year’s lowest level  
    O'Mahony: Notes on a new economic model  
    Michael Ashbaugh writes: Major Support Cracks?  
    Peter Brimelow brings us: Another summer sag for stocks?  
    China’s economy has yet to bottom  
    China’s easing aimed at housing  

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes From the Week That Was  "The Greek and French elections were so last Sunday ago, but certainly set the tone for a week of high market anxiety, This was further compounded by the Spanish banking situation and some weaker than forecast data out of China, although economic reports out of Europe and the U.S. showed a few bright spots thrown into the mix. JPMorgan’s stunning trading losses put a cap on an interesting trading week, with the market rebounding off sharp “news” premarket lows both on Monday and Friday. However, with the fade into the close on Friday afternoon the SPX ended the week with a -1.1% decline, the Dow ... Read More »"    
    China Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements 
      
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight..


2012-5-11: (Friday Night): Today was the inverse of yesterday. The markets rose sharply, and then ended mixed: Dow stumbles on the week; Stocks end lower as bank shares weigh . The NASDAQ Composite increased 0.18 points (0.01%) to end at 2,933.82. The Dow lost 34.44 points (-0.27%) to close at  12,820.60; the S&P 500 subtracted 4.60 points (-0.34%) to settle at 1,353.39. Oil ended the day  at 95.62: Oil at lowest level of year; gold ended at 1580: Gold ends lower, down roughly 4% on week. The VIX dropped 1.25 to 18.83.
    "Stocks slip as J.P. Morgan's $2 billion loss adds pressure. Blue-chip index loses 1.7% on week."
    "Stocks finished lower Friday, ending a down week for the major indexes, as weakness in the banking sector weighed on the market. More"
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Jon Markman explains Why stocks are down; reasons for a rebound
    Mark Hulbert warns of Bond market madness. Bond yields are unlikely to go lower, and sooner or later, will go higher. Bond prices are at a dangerous, high-risk level.
    Even the smartest can get hit by Wall Street chaos. "David Weidner says system's really out of control when a savvy player like Dimon is humiliated."
    Doug Roberts: Fear likely to beget rebound (audio)  
    Michael Gayad echoes Mark Hulbert's warning: When risk-free turns risky. He's looking for a melt-up in the stock market once money pours out of the bond market into the stock market.

    Spanish bond yields headed higher.  
    Markets punish oil and gold ... for their own good  
    Rex Nutting writes: One less thing to worry about: gasoline prices
    Cheaper gas won't do trick "The minute we learned gas prices had fallen, driving down the producer price index, we knew consumers were happy. But that's not enough to fuel a consumer-led rebound (First Take)."  
    EU: Slow recovery seen in second half   
    China's weaker output |
    April CPI eases.  
    India's industrial output contracts 3.5% in March
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    The "Mooch's" Vegas Floor Show  "Regular viewers of CNBC are likely familiar with frequent “Fast Money” guest Anthony “The Mooch” Scaramucci, one of the principles of Skybridge Capital, a diversified “fund of funds”, advisory service provider, and “research-driven alternative investment fund”. Mr. Scaramucci, a colorful, outspoken, and hardly publicity-shy figure, is one of the drivers behind this week’s SALT conference being held at the Bellagio in Las Vegas and drawing ... Read More »"    
    Inflation in China Holds Steady 
    Import Prices Fall in April, Export Prices Up  
    JPMorgan Chase Sinks On Report of Credit Losses  
    Big Picture Market Models - 5/10/12  
     
    Another week has past, with the markets still stuck in a trading range.


2012-5-9: (Wednesday Night): The markets fell sharply again today and once again partially recovered: Dow set for sixth down day; Dow posts 6-day losing streak. The NASDAQ Composite decreased 11.56 points (-0.39%) to end at 2,934.71. The Dow slipped 96 points (-0.75%) to close at  12,835.29; the S&P 500 fell 9.14 points (-0.67%) to settle at 1,354.58. Oil ended the day  at 96.54: Oil falls on higher dollar, global-recovery fears; gold ended at 1590: Gold below $1,600, lowest since December. The VIX rose 0.83 to 19.88.
    "Stocks tumble on Europe fears, as the Dow's six-session losing streak makes it the longest since August 2011."
    "U.S. stocks bounced back somewhat from a sharp sell-off Wednesday, but all three major indexes closed in the red as investors continue to fret about Greece and Spain. More."
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Mark Hulbert explains Why a major market correction is unlikely
    Europe's pain, America's gain.  
    Michael Gayed explains that Catalyst for higher stocks is no catalyst
. 
    How China is propping up the euro.  
    Public holidays become austerity casualty in Portugal 
    Does Europe have too many holidays? (video)  
    Matthew Lynn notes that Shareholders’ revolt will shift markets
    Tommi Kilgore explains that S&P 500 losses wipe out earnings gains.  
    Paul Farrell suggests 19 solar, wind and biofuel stocks to watch.
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
    Believe It Or Not, It's All About Europe (Again)
    More Questions Than Answers  "The keys to Wednesday’s session are (a) word that the Eurozone is debating the delay of €5.2B to Greece on May 10th due to the political landscape (b) reports that Spain will require its banks to raise more capital and (c) rumors that Credit Immobilier de France is facing "troubles." However, the good news is that European market finished mixed with France down only modestly and Germany up on the session. As for the first concern – that Eurozone and the IMF could delay the next tranche of loans to ... Read More"    
    IMF Talks of Safeguarding Loans to Europe 
    Investor's Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Pulls Back  
    Wholesale Inventories Disappoint in March  
    Spain To Require Banks To Add Capital  
     
    Market futures are mixed tonight.


2012-5-8: (Tuesday Night): The markets fell sharply today and then partially recovered: Dow recovers some losses; Stocks tumble on Greece uncertainty. The NASDAQ Composite decreased 11.49 points (-0.39%) to end at 2,946.27. The Dow slipped 76.44 points (-0.59%) to close at  12,932.09; the S&P 500 fell 5.86 points (-0.43%) to settle at 1,363.72. Oil ended the day  at 96.45: Oil falls below $97, fifth straight down day; gold ended at 1604: Gold ends at lowest level since year's start, Gold drops more than $40 as dollar climbs. The VIX rose a slight 0.05 to 18.99.
    "U.S. stocks trim back their decline as trading session winds down. Blue chips partially recover from a nearly 200-point slide earlier in the day. Uncertainty about the Greek election pressures Wall Street."
    "U.S. stocks sank Tuesday, although the major indexes closed off session lows, as Greece's uncertain political situation keeps investors on edge. More"  
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Kevin Marder says The market pullback is a welcome sight
    The continued deterioration of the market  
    Europe, U.S. all out of monetary tricks 
    Thomas Kee says Slowing economies demand risk control.  
    Bush tax cuts and Europe 
    Dudley: Fed won't cause inflation  
    Irwin Kellner: What, me worry about inflation?  
    U.S. sells 3-year debt at lowest yield in 3 months  
    NFIB small-business index at post-recession high
     March job openings increase to 3.74 million  
     U.S. home prices post gain 
     The debate about austerity is over 
     Michael Ashbaugh is Charting a bearish backdrop.  
     David Weidner admonishes us to Buy America, sell Europe.  

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market
    More Questions Than Answers  "Greetings from Kilkenney, Ireland. For me at least, the weekend elections, as well as yesterday's market action, raise more questions than answers. While the bulls will argue that yesterday's impressive rebound in the U.S. indices means that the buyers are resilient at the present time and that we've seen the lows for this corrective phase, frankly I'm not so sure this is the case. Believe me, as a card-carrying member of The-Glass-is-Always-at-Least-Half-Full club, it pains me to say this. But as the saying goes, one day does not a trend make (or change). So, unless the bulls can put in a carbon copy of yesterday's ... Read More »"    
    Why Does The World Really Care About Greece Again? "It seems that the stock market is all about Greece today (yes, again). With the elections leaving the debt-riddled country with no clear leadership, the question of Eurozone stability is back on the ... Read More »
    Market Mover: Greece's Leading Parties Fail to Form Gov't  
    NFIB Small Business Optimism Improves in April  
    German Industrial Production Improves  
     
    Market futures are slightly lower tonight.


2012-5-7: (Monday Night): The markets caught their breath today, closing nearly flat: U.S. blue chips lose on election unease; European Turnaround Keeps US Market Afloat. The NASDAQ Composite eased up 1.42 points (0.05%) to end at 2,957.76. The Dow slipped 29.74 points (-0.23%) to close at  13,008.53; the S&P 500 tiptoed up 0.48 points (0.04%) to settle at 1,369.58. Oil ended the day  at 97.92: Oil ends at three-month low on Europe fears; gold ended at 1639: Gold ends lower on European elections. The VIX slid 0.19 to 18.97.
    "U.S. stocks fight to erase losses suffered early Monday after rejection by voters in Greece and France of pro-austerity candidates."
    "
May 07 4:11pm: U.S. stocks recovered Monday afternoon from modest losses earlier in the day, as investors considered the implications of leadership changes in France and Greece. More"
    I warned last night that the market indices were down more than 1%, and that the markets could go into free-fall today, and it continued to look that way early this morning. But then, a sudden, dramatic reversal took place in the European bourses, and the U. S. markets followed suit.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Greece ‘worst case’ outcome sparks turmoil  "Outcome of voting potentially raises doubts over Greece's capacity to remain in the euro zone."
    Greece rejects mainstream parties (video)
    David Marsh: Fateful choice for France 
    French voters reject Sarkozy and austerity (video)  
    Hollande ousts Sarkozy in French vote  
    Message sent to Germany and Merkel  
    Michael Gayed writes Where is Spain's 'V' recovery? "Problems in Spain continue as Spanish stocks fall rolls on. But is it possible that they're falling so quickly that we may see a rebound soon?"
     Avri Gilburt asks: Has the market topped for 2012?  
    Darrell Delamaide offers A warning, not an ultimatum, to Merkel

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    When Losing a Little (Very Little) is a Good Thing  "After a straight-up joyride to the upside during the first three months of the year, the market has suddenly become very difficult again. Here's one way to succeed in this environment... ... Read More »"    
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
     
    Market futures are very slightly positive tonight.


2012-5-4: (Friday Night): The markets crashed and burned today: Street's worst week of year; Disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls Sends Stocks Lower. The NASDAQ Composite plunged 67.96 points (-2.25%) to end at 2,956.34. The Dow dropped 168.32 points (-1.27%) to close at  13,038.27; the S&P 500 collapsed 22.47 points (-2.25%) to settle at 1,369.10. Oil ended the day  at 98.59: Oil slides to 12-week low; gold ended at 1642: Gold ends higher, snaps losing streak. The VIX jumped 1.6 to 19.16.
    "Stocks were sent reeling Friday morning after a weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report for the month of April... ... Read More »"
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Charting the latest jobs and employment data
    Charles Sizemore asks What is the big money saying?
    Howard Gold says: Oil and gas prices look like they’ve peaked
    Rex Nutting notes that Government spending is holding us back  
   Mark Hulbert writes about The gold market’s steep wall of worry.  
    The Bear Paradox and the negative narrative  
    Treasury 10-year yields fall under 1.90% 

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Falling Over The Fiscal Cliff?  "Move over Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. Watch out Thelma and Louise. That cliff has our collective names written all over it and you better make way. Or at least that is what the chorus in the media, throughout Washington, at universities, in think tanks, and all over the Street is telling us. We reported in the last weekend’s recap that “Factiva news search said hits on the phrase 'fiscal cliff’ quintupled in the last month.” As we hear the rhetoric increasingly heating up on this so-called “fiscal cliff”, we thought we might as well all get on the ... Read More »"
    Eurozone Services PMI Confirm Economic Weakness    
     
    This has certainly been a "down" week, as market indices have broken below their trend channels and support levels.
    As usual, there's not much news on a Friday night.


2012-5-3: (Thursday Night): The markets closed down today: U.S. stocks feel tugs of jobs data and Europe fear; Stocks stumble ahead of April jobs report . The NASDAQ Composite plummetted 35.55 points (-1.16%) to end at 3,024.30. The Dow dropped 61.98 points (-0.47%) to close at  13,206.59; the S&P 500 collapsed 10.74 points (-0.77%) to settle at 1,391.57. Oil ended the day  at 102.54: Oil slides 2.6% to lowest level in nearly 2 weeks; gold ended at 1636: Gold ends $1,640 after U.S. jobs, services data. The VIX dropped 0.68 to 17.56.
    "Weak reading on private-sector employment casts doubt on the strength of Friday's payrolls report.."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. jobless claims drop.  "Week's applications for jobless benefits see first drop in a month, to just slightly above a four-year low."
    Planned job cuts up
    Kathleen Madigan: Don’t be fooled by ADP
    U.S. productivity drops 0.5% in first quarter  
    Expect stagnant U.S. economy in 2013: Roubini.  
    U.S. stocks' early gains hit by Europe worries  
    Kevin Marder writes Momentum returns 
    Stocks have outgrown economy  
    Draghi: Economic outlook subject to downside risks "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says outlook remains subject to downside risks, tied in part to sovereign-debt tensions."
    Thirty-year mortgage rate at record-low 3.84%   
    Cody Willard writes about his Bluefly Bubble Indicator. He also tells us what • What Web 1.0 stocks tell us about 2.0

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    Roubini: The New List of Macro Concerns  "In September 2006, Nouriel Roubini – aka Dr. Doom – a warned a wary IMF that the U.S. was likely to face a big-time housing bubble bust, an oil shock, and decreased consumer confidence. Essentially, Roubini warned of a deep recession in the U.S., which came to pass. As such, whenever Roubini has spoken since then, people listen. Although Roubini recently turned positive on U.S. stocks (for a short-term trade, which, by the way, wasn't a bad call), the notoriously negative economist is back with a new list ... Read More »"    
    Thursday's Economic Data Mostly Disappoints
     
    Stock market futures are flat again tonight.


2012-5-2: (Wednesday Night): The markets closed mixed: Jobs data pressure Street; Dow closes at a 4-year high. The NASDAQ Composite rose 9.41 points (0.31%) to end at 3,059.85. The Dow dropped 10.75 points (-0.08%) to close at  13,268.57; the S&P 500 re-inflated 3.51 points (-0.25%) to settle at 1,402.31. Oil ended the day  at 105.33: Stocks, oil, bond yields give a little back; gold ended at 1654: Gold extends losses after weak jobs report. The VIX dropped 0.28 to 16.88.
    "Weak reading on private-sector employment casts doubt on the strength of Friday's payrolls report.."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Matthew Lynn warns that Time is running out to rescue Spain.
    Are we on the way to Dow 14K (audio?
    Mark Hulbert tells us about May doesn’t have to be bad for stocks
    Irwin Kellner says: Warning: Fiscal icebergs ahead  
    U.S. 10-year yields touch 3-month low.  
    Private-sector job growth slows to 119,000 in April  "Restrained private-sector payroll gain is led by service sector and small and midsize businesses."

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Is "Better-Than-Expected" About To Make a Comeback?  "Good Morning. The recent correction in the stock market has been attributed largely to returning concerns about the state of the European sovereign debt crisis as well as a general softening of the economic data here in the U.S. While just about every report to hit the tape in the first quarter was better than expected, since then, it appears that the economic momentum has begun to fade. And in short, this put a fairly large dent in the BTE theme. As a result, some of the exuberance was removed from stock prices. To be sure, many analysts and managers had been caught off guard by the BTE phase, which ... Read More »"    
    Goldman Sachs Sending Mixed Signals (Again)  "As usual, the spokesmen and women for Goldman Sachs have been making headlines recently with their market calls. However the views being expressed in public seem to be conflicting... ... Read More »"
    ADP Employment Underwhelms, Factory Orders Fall  "ADP reported that the private sector job market expanded in the month of April, though the figure came in well below consensus expectations... ... Read More »"
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market       
    European PMI's Show Economies Continue to Struggle  
    HSBC's China PMI Manufacturing Index Improves 
    
    Stock market futures are flat tonight.


2012-5-1: (Tuesday Night): All three indices snapped back today: Dow ends at highest level since late 2007; Dow closes at a 4-year high. The NASDAQ Composite rose 4.08 points (0.13%) to end at 3,050.44. The Dow gained 65.69 points (0.5%) to close at  13,279.32; the S&P 500 re-inflated 7.91 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,405.82. Oil ended the day  at 105.80: Price of oil hits five-week high; gold ended at 1663: Gold edges lower; copper leads gains. The VIX dropped 0.55 to 16.60.
    "U.S. stocks rise after report shows manufacturing expanded at a more rapid pace for April."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Jon Markman tells us about 3 reasons May will sting
    Irwin Kellner's cautionary tale: Warning: Fiscal icebergs ahead
    Mark Hulbert tells us about The VIX in presidential election years  "Standard & Poor’s downgrade of big banks ups pressure on the government to deal with the financial sector as economy slips into recession."
    David Weidner asks What would Jesus trade?  
    Lawrence McMillen opines: The technicals are bullish.  
    Tomi Kilgore advises:
Another weak May? Don’t be so sure
    Michael Ashbaugh asks: Sell in May, or stay?          
    5 stocks picked by billionaires
    May as bear season  
    Kevin Marder proclaims: The market is mending.  
    The Aden sisters say The Fed will provide.     

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    ISM Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside  "GThe all-important ISM Manufacturing Index provides a look at the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. This month's report shows the sector continued to expand for the 33rd straight month... ... Read More »"    
    Ready, Set, Sell?  "Good Morning. My digital calendar informed me this morning that the month of May has officially arrived. And according to Wall Street's folklore, this means that it may be time to do something other than invest in the stock market for a while. But to be honest, I've never put much credence in the old saw, "Sell in May and go away" as stocks have only fallen during the May-October period 11 of the 32 years I've been in this business. But, I will have to admit that it's been a profitable strategy of late and as such, I thought I'd dig into the data to see whether I should just extend my stay in Europe until after Halloween. The theory holds that stocks tend to do very little from ... Read More »"
    Construction Spending in U.S. Up Slightly in March       
    UK Manufacturing PMI Above 50 But Below Expectations  
    China's Official PMI Expands for Fifth Straight Month 
    Are The Bullish Analysts Talking Their Books or Talking Sense?  
    
    Stock market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-4-30: (Monday Night): All three indices fell a bit today: Stocks limping to April end; Stocks finish worst month of the year. The NASDAQ Composite fell the most at 22.84 points (-0.74%) to end at 3,046.36. The Dow retreated 14.63 points (-0.11%) to close at  13,213.63; the S&P 500 deflated 5.45 points (-0.39%) to settle at 1,397.91. Oil ends the day essentially unchanged at 104.78: Oil inches lower after four-day run; gold ended at 1667: Gold edges slightly lower for session, month. The VIX climbed t 0.83 to 17.15.
    "U.S. stocks fall, with the benchmark indexes positioned for monthly declines, after a soft reading on business activity in the Chicago area. Spain's return to recession fuels latest euro-zone worries."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Consumers cool it in March.
    Gunderson: Correction risk past
    S&P bank move and data pile pressure on Spain  "Standard & Poor’s downgrade of big banks ups pressure on the government to deal with the financial sector as economy slips into recession."
    EU reportedly readies 'Marshall Plan for Europe'.  
    Euro-zone inflation pace slows to 2.6% in April.  
   
Retail sales don't bode well for Germany's GDP
    Brent March points out that U.K. shows euro isn’t vital to trade.        
    Craig Stephens explains Beijing’s secret: It’s not really loosening.  
    Stocks will be OK in May
    Treasury yields touch two-month lows  
    Peter Brimelow reviews an investment advisor who's Bullish on energy — and China  
    Earnings season is a so-far-so-good story (audio)  
    Will weak jobs lead to more easing?   

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    The Correction May Be Over, But...  "Good Morning. Five days ago, the bears seemed to have everything going their way. After one of the best first quarter performances in years, the stock market was overbought, sentiment had become too upbeat (or at the very least, traders had become more than a little complacent), and hedge fund managers were falling all over themselves trying to play catch up with their benchmarks (aka the S&P 500). Thus, as I wrote on March 28th, it was time to prepare for some sort of a correction, pullback, or sloppy period. ... Read More »"    
    Chicago PMI Pulls Back in April
    Personal Income and Spending Rise in March       
    S&P Cuts Ratings of 16 Spanish Banks  
    Spain's Economy Dips Back Into Recession 
    Earnings Season Update: Q1 Results A Positive So Far  
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes  
    
    Stock market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-4-27: (Friday Night): All three indices closed up yet again today: S&P ends back above 1,400; Stocks close out a strong week. The NASDAQ Composite exploded 18.58 points (0.61%) to end at 3,069.20. The Dow advanced 23.69 points (0.18%) to close at  13,228.31; the S&P 500 popped 3.38 points (0.24%) to settle at 1,403.36. Oil rose to 104.79:Oil rises near 4-week high; gold ended at 1663: Gold market takes big cues from the Fed. The VIX eased up 0.08 to 16.32.
    "Stocks close higher as better-than-expected results from Amazon and Ford fuel gains. Nasdaq also rallies 2.3% for the week, with gains stoked by strong quarterly earnings.
    "Crude climbs back near $105 a barrel, extending its winning run into a fourth straight day."
  
    The bottom line: The markets have pushed above their recent levels, but have resistance to overcome... e. g., 1420 on the S&P... before they can be said to have broken out of their trading ranges and ended this correction.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayed says: Look for surge in China stocks.
    Long-term gold view still bullish
    Rex Nutting writes: Fear of inflation keeps Fed from doing its job  
    Mark Hulbert tells us What market must do to avoid sell signal.  
    Howard Gold warns that Dumb money flocks to emerging markets.  
   
Michael Ashbaugh observes that the S&P 500 stages lukewarm breakout.
    Lawrence McMillan noted on Wednesday that if the S&P 500 closed above 1400, it would constitute a bullish breakout: In focus: Are bulls winning by default? And that's precisely what happened today (and essentially, yesterday), with the S&P closing tonight at 1403.        
    Cody Willard tells us about Tracking the next Web bubble.  
    U.S. 10-year yields down a sixth-straight week.  

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Good-News/Bad-News Situation  "Today's technical picture is a classic case of good news/bad news situation. The good news is that the recent advance argues well for the idea that the corrective phase that began on 4/2 has... ... Read More »"    
    The Whispering Returns  "Good Morning. As you may know, my Daily State of the Markets report is dedicated to identifying the drivers of the market action. The vast majority of the time, this is a fairly easy task as the reasons behind a move are usually pretty straightforward (well, eventually anyway). But then there are days like Thursday. You see there are times when it isn't so much about what happens in the stock market game, but rather how it happens that matters. For example, the "what" of yesterday's market was pretty simple. ... Read More »"
    University of Michigan Sentiment Index Above Expectations       
    U.S. GDP Growth Below Expectations in First Quarter  
    Yields Continue to Rise at Italian Bond Auction 
    Spanish Officials Say Bailout Not Needed  
    Bank of Japan Increases QE Program  
    
    It's been another "up" week.
    I hope Fortune smiles upon you this weekend.


2012-4-26: (Thursday Night): All three indices closed up again today: Blue chips up triple digits; Stocks gain as 'stimulus addicts' look for a fix. The NASDAQ Composite exploded 20.98 points (0.69%) to end at 3,050.61. The Dow advanced 113.9 points (0.87%) to close at  13,204.62; the S&P 500 popped 9.29 points (0.67%) to settle at 1,399.98. Oil rose to 104.13: Oil ends 0.4% higher; natural gas turns lower; gold ended at 1657: Gold rallies 1.1% on weakened dollar, Fed. The VIX slipped 0.58 to 16.24.
    "Better-than-expected data on housing and an upbeat forecast from software firm Citrix help U.S. stock market overcome disappointing jobless claims. Dow industrials up 1% as gains expand after midday."
    The markets broke upward out of their recent trading ranges today (although they could certainly turn around and go south tomorrow).  
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Q1 GDP report to show economy 'plugging along'  "Last quarter of 2011 and first quarter of 2012 may mark the best period of back-to-back growth in two years, but economists aren’t getting too excited."
    U.S. jobless claims remain elevated
    Kevin Marder discusses: Lock in gains or let winners ride?  
    Pending home sales hit a 23-month high  
    .Home prices bottoming in these 19 markets  
   
At Goldman, it's about the money  "A laserlike focus on the bottom line has allowed the board at Goldman Sachs to over look a litany of transgressions that would have derailed others."
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Today I'm From Missouri  "Good Morning. Fool me once, shame on you. But fool me twice... Well, that's the stuff that trading ranges are made of. As I've mentioned a time or twenty over the past couple of weeks, I'm of the mind that the stock market is stuck in a consolidation phase. And unless the bulls can get their act together in a big way, I'd also be willing to bet that this sloppy period of back-and-forth action may continue for a while. However, I am a firm believer in the idea of staying in tune with what the market IS doing (as opposed to what I think ... Read More »"    
    Spain's Credit Rating Dropped Two Notches by S&P  "Just when you thought the bulls might have gotten their mojo back, Standard & Poors found something else to downgrade - and not by a small amount. S&P hit Spain for a two notch downgrade... ... Read More »"
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market       
    The Dueling Forecasts (For GDP, That Is)  
    Pending Home Sales Suggest Housing Market Has Turned Corner 
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Sags Further  
    Trend of Weekly Jobless Claims Moving Up  
    China To Lend $10 Billion To Europe For Infrastructure Projects 
      
    Market futures are somewhat lower tonight.


2012-4-25: (Wednesday Night): The Dow and S&P closed up smartly today, with the NASDAQ leading the pack on Apple's blowout earnings: U.S. stocks follow Apple, Boeing higher; Bernanke boosts stocks, Apple rallies. The NASDAQ Composite exploded 68.03 points (2.3%) to end at 3,029.63. The Dow advanced 89.16 points (0.69%) to close at  13,090.72; the S&P 500 popped 18.72 points (1.36%) to settle at 1,390.69. Oil rose to 104.01: Oil edges up, shakes off post-Fed weakness; gold ended at 1646: Gold down $2.1 from Tuesday as Bernanke speaks. The VIX slippeded 1.28 to 16.82.
    "U.S. stocks finished near the highs of the day Wednesday, as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and cheered strong corporate results from big companies including Apple and Boeing. More"
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Jim Rogers on markets, economy, China (video)
    Fed's Bernanke comfortable with policy  "Federal Reserve Chairman Ban Bernanke says interest-rate policy is in the right place, given the forecast that economic growth will be moderate over coming quarters and pick up gradually."
    Nobelist: A farewell to U.S. factories  
    Taxpayers still on hook for TARP billions  
    Permits push signals U. S. housing boom.  
    Apple's huge quarter — what you need to know
.  
    Matthew Lynn writes: The markets aren’t going to like Merllande.  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: All About Apple, But...  "Believe it or not, today's technical picture hasn't changed much. While traders are gaga over AAPL again today, the overall market remains in a rangebound consolidation phase... ... Read More »"    
    Can 'NBA' Make a Comeback?  "Good Morning. A good chunk of first quarter's joyride to the upside was attributed to the performance of a little company named Apple (AAPL). What is now the world's largest company had what has come to be known as an outsized impact on many of the stock market indices, causing one analyst to dub the U.S. stock market the N.B.A. market - Nothing But Apple (as in nothing but AAPL was needed in a portfolio). However, after hitting an intraday high of $644 on April 10th (representing a gain of 59% in 2012 alone), the ... Read More »"
    Bernanke Says Additional Tools STill On Table       
    Fed Expects Rates To Stay Low Through Late 2014  
    NAAIM Index: Active Managers Remaining Cautious  
    Durable Goods Report Puts Economic Recovery in Question  
    ECB's Draghi Offers No Hints At Additional Assistance  
    UK Officially Slips Into Recession  
    This announcement demands the channeling of Paul Krugman: Permanent Link to Cameron’s Remarkable Achievement.  
      
    Market futures are slightly higher for a third night in a row.


2012-4-24: (Tuesday Night): The Dow and S&P closed mixed today: Blue chips get boost; Apple Earnings Blow Away Estimates . The NASDAQ Composite retreated 8.85 points (-0.3%) to end at 2,961.60. The Dow advanced 74.39 points (0.58%) to close at  13,001.56; the S&P 500 plowed ahead 5.03 points (0.37%) to settle at 1,371.97. Oil rose to 103.51: Oil futures gain as euro-zone worries recede; gold ended at 1642: Gold at week high on housing data, weaker dollar. The VIX subsided 1.53 to 18.10.
    "Dow industrials solidify gains, but big-name tech stocks including Apple keep Nasdaq in the red."
    "Traders everywhere have been anxiously awaiting the earnings from Apple. While AT&T's report suggested possible weakness, Apple's numbers were anything but... ... Read More »"
   
    Marketwatch says: 
    Banyan's Pavlik: Stocks' downside to ebb (audio)
    Michael Ashbaugh warns that Cracks widen in the technical backdrop  
    Paulenoff: Portent of S&P selloff  
    Irwin Kellner opines: Throwing good money after bad  Dr. Kellner is arguing that adding $30 billion to the International Monetary Fund's bailout budget isn't going to save the European Union when its leadership keeps enforcing austerity, driving the Eurpzpne deeper and deeper into recession.  
    David Weidner writes about Sallie Krawcheck: "Don’t blame me"  
   
Paul Farrell warns that IPO-crash signal flashes bear warnings.  

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: The Consolidation Continues  "Although stocks are higher today, the game really hasn't changed much as the market remains in a consolidation phase. However, we are seeing some encouraging signs... ... Read More »"    
    Weebles Wobble But They Don't...  "Good Morning. There are times when the phrase "market logic" is clearly an oxymoron. Such is the case when stocks rally furiously after bad economic news based on the idea that the negative data means more economic hand-holding from the Federal Reserve. And yet there are other times when the drivers behind the stock market's moves are blatantly obvious and easy to understand. Lately we've seen a little of both ... Read More »"
    FHFA House Price Index Improves in February       
    New Home Sales Fall in March, But...t  
    Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly In April  
    Case-Shiller Home Price Index Declines  
    AT&T's Earnings Beat But Data Worrisome for Apple  
    China's Growth Rate Continues To Slow  
    Rates Continue To Rise at Italian and Spanish Bond Auctions  
    Eurozone Industrial New Orders Decline Again  
      
    Market futures are slightly higher again tonight.


2012-4-23: (Monday Night): The Dow and S&P rose today: Europe fears batter Street; Stocks end day down on China, Europe fears. The NASDAQ Composite fell 30 points (-1%) to end at 2,970.45. The Dow declined 65.16 points (-0.78%) to close at  12,927.17; the S&P 500 slipped 11.58 points (-0.84%) to settle at 1,366.94. Oil rose to 103.12: Oil futures fall as global markets pressured; gold ended at 1640: Gold at two-week low on worries over Europe, China. The VIX climbed 1.53 to 18.97.
    "Stocks decline sharply as investors worry over Europe and Wal-Mart is rocked by a bribery report."
    "European political uncertainty and another sign of a slowdown in the Chinese economy pushed stocks down Monday, with the three major U.S. indexes falling more than 1% before rebounding somewhat in afternoon trading. More"
   
    Marketwatch says: 
    Economy cooling?
    China's factories languish  
    Politics, indicators intensify euro-zone fears  
    David Marsh warns that it was a Black weekend for Europe’s EMU    
    Former Goldman trader schools the muppets  
    Peter Brimelow reports that the Aden sisters think stocks still rule  
    Darell Delamaide observes that: French left and right agree: Non to austerity.  

    Jobs picture not so pretty  "The unnerving trend of upward revisions paints a more dour picture of U. S. job growth, including data on the underemployed, writes Elizabeth MacDonald of Fox Business."
    Todd Harrison: Is this dip buyable?  

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Another Way To Play The Consolidation Phase  "Good Morning. With yet another session spent inside the current tight little trading range on Friday, it is clear that the consolidation phase continues. The primary driver of the current phase appears to be an oldie-but-a-goodie: uncertainty. In short, traders are uncertain about what comes next on any number of fronts including earnings growth (earnings are only expected to be up 1% this quarter), inflation (which, for those of you keeping score at home, is currently above the Fed's target zone on a year-over-year basis), Europe (Spain and Italy are getting all the attention these days), China (is 8% enough?), ... Read More »"    
    European Flash PMI's Paint Ugly Economic Picture  "The new week appears to be starting off on the wrong foot as Flash PMI readings from Europe were downright ugly and suggest the contraction appears to be getting worse... ... Read More »"
    China's Flash PMI Improves in April But       
    Some Real "Head Scratchers" in the Booming World of Social Media  
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes From The Week That Was  

    Market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-4-20: (Friday Night): The Dow and S&P rose today: U.S. stock indexes climb on earnings; Dow, S&P 500 finish higher on earnings boost. The NASDAQ Composite decreased 7.11 (-0.24%) to end at 3,000.45. The Dow climbed 65.16 points (0.5%) to close at  13,029.26; the S&P 500 slipped 1.61 points (0.12%) to settle at 1,376.92. Oil rose to 103.61: Oil snaps two-day losing run, gains 0.8%; gold ended at 1643: Gold inches higher, loses 1% on week. The VIX dipped to 0.92 to 17.44.
    "Stocks rebound after a two-day losing spell. Dow and S&P snap two-week losing streak."
   
    Marketwatch says: 
    Risks to the U.S.'s recovery.  "Though real estate-related indicators are still running ahead of last year, some data have slowed over the last few months. Jobless claims, meanwhile, are a head scratcher, though retail sales look strong."
    Mark Hulbert warns: Advisers’ hot hands inevitably cool  
    Lawrence McMillan observes: VIX points to more volatility.  This article expatiates upon the developing wedges in the market indices chart patterns that I mention at the bottom of this window. (I wrote about this before I read Mr. McMillan's article.)  Mr. McMillan concludes that a breakout from the S&P 500 wedge above 1390 would be bullish for stocks, while a close below 1340 would be very bearish. Similarly, a rise in the VIX above 21 would be bearish while a break beow 17 would be bullish. He concludes, "In summary, SPX is bouncing back and forth between support at the trend line and resistance at 1,390. It is suggested that one observe VIX as a clue to which direction the market might take on a breakout."
    Sell something!  Cody Willard asks: "Is it really time to panic about these markets? And more must-reads from around the Internet."
    Show me the cash flow     
    Best investment: Social Security  
    Warren Buffett merits respect — not awe  
    Rex Nutting writes: Are poor people lazy? Or just lucky?.  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Will History Repeat, Rhyme, or Be Ignored?  "They say history repeats itself. Generally, I take that to mean abstractly every so many thousands of years, a war or an ice age reoccur. Instead, some market analysts are betting that 2012 is following in the footsteps of its immediate predecessor... and they’re uninspired by what’s to come. “Make no mistake, there’s no way this year will continue to go smoothly,” said Andrew Goldberg, global market strategist for J.P. Morgan Funds. With a showing all too similar to that of last year at this time, the Standard & Poor’s ... Read More »"    
    LEI (Leading Economic Index) Up for 6th Straight Month  
    Mickey D's Earnings Spur Buying       
    GE Exceeds Expectations, Stock Trading Higher  
    German IFO Index Shows Business Sentiment Improving  
    Existing Home Sales Below Expectations

    The market charts look as though, maybe, they're forming a wedge, presaging a breakout either up or down.


2012-4-19: (Thursday Night): The markets fell again today: Street uneasy over Europe; Stocks fall on weak U.S. economic data. The NASDAQ Composite decreased 23.89 (-0.79%) to end at 3,007.56. The Dow dropped 68.65 points (-0.53%) to close at  12,964.10; the S&P 500 slipped 8.22 points (-0.59%) to settle at 1,376.92. Oil fell to 102.62: Oil ends lower after jobless claims, Philly Fed gold ended at 1640: Gold edges higher; silver leads gains. The VIX dipped slightly (0.28) to 18.36.
    "Dow gets tugged back below 13,000 as concerns over Europe's economy offset corporate results."
    "Stocks closed lower on Wednesday in a choppy session of trading. Major indices started the day in the red following European stocks lower. Concern over Spain and resulting contagion concerns were the ... Read More »"  
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayed explains Why stocks are the new QE.  
    David Weidner tells us about Wall Street's new swagger
    Volcker rule deadline is 2014, U.S. says
    Playing a consolidation near a top     
    Delamaide: Congress's smoke and mirrors  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Four Ways To Play (The Consolidation, That Is)  "Although I run the risk of restating the obvious, it appears to me that the current market has gotten more than a little sloppy lately. Thus, unless one of our two teams can really get something going in the near term, the current consolidation phase is likely to continue. You see with earnings season just getting underway and a great deal of uncertainty remaining with regard to the situation in Europe, it may be tough for the bulls to make a concerted push higher. And yet at the same time, our furry friends in the bear camp don't seem to be able to do much with their opportunities of late. Thus, unless something changes right ... Read More »"    
    LEI (Leading Economic Index) Up for 6th Straight Month  
    Existing Home Sales Below Expectations       
    Philly Fed Index Disappoints in April  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Up Again  
    Market Mover- Europe Is a Problem

    Market futures are slightly elevated tonight.


2012-4-18: (Wednesday Night): The markets fell today as the markets continued to consolidate: U.S. stocks fall as Intel, IBM results disappoint; Stocks Lower on Euro Concerns, Mixed Earnings. The NASDAQ Composite decreased 11.87 (-0.37%) to end at 3,031.45. The Dow dropped 82.79 points (-0.63%) to close at  13,032.75; the S&P 500 slipped 5.64 points (-0.41%) to settle at 1,385.14. Oil fell to 102.69: Oil at lowest in a week after inventories report; gold ended at 1640: Gold ends lower as demand’s seen lacking. The VIX tose slightly (0.18) to 18.64.
    "Stocks pull back from a two-day rally, as quarterly results from tech heavyweights disappoint."
    "Stocks closed lower on Wednesday in a choppy session of trading. Major indices started the day in the red following European stocks lower. Concern over Spain and resulting contagion concerns were the ... Read More »"  
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayed explains Why stocks are the new QE.  
    U.S. bows to Wall Street on derivatives
    Obama pushes to enhance Commodities Futures Trading Ccommision's power
    Are U.S. and China trading places?   
    China home-price drop raises jitters  
    Mark Hulbert delineates the Leading indicators of a market top. His conclusion: the markets today don't appear to be at a market top, based upon sector rotation criteria. 

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: The Key Takeaway Here Is  "They say that "the tape tells all." And in the current market environment, this old saw may hold true. Our technical market indicators and read of the tape tells us... ... Read More »"
    It's Deja vu All Over Again (Again)   "Good Morning. "Buy! No, Sell! No wait, did I say sell? I meant Buy! Yea, that's right, Buy! Unless... Well... Ok... No, let's Buy.... Yea, that's my final answer! But wait... Maybe I should..." While it sound's idiotic, this is the type of indecision that appears to have overwhelmed traders (oops, I mean the computers) of late. One minute Europe's woes are back, contagion is spreading, the global banking industry is toast, China is going to bring down the world, and Apple (AAPL) is crashing. But the next - Wheee! ... Read More »"
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Continues To Fall  
    NAAIM Index: Active Managers Become Cautious       
    IBM Earnings Beat EPS But Revenue is Light  
    Intel Tops EPS and Revenue; Stock Lower After Report  
    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Update

    Market futures are modestly higher tonight.


2012-4-17: (Tuesday Night): The markets ended considerably higher  today: Nasdaq powers Street rally; Volatility Returns, Bulls Back In Control. The NASDAQ Composite leaped 54.42 (1.82%) to end at 3,042.82. The Dow hopped 194.13 points (1.5%) to close at  13,115.54; the S&P 500 jumped 21.21 points (1.55%) to settle at 1,369.57. Oil rose again to 104.20: Oil ends 1.2% higher, leaves behind weak start; gold ended at 1660: Gold edges higher; palladium leads gains. The VIX dropped 1.9 to 18.46.
    "Stocks closed significantly higher on Tuesday. Major indices started the day gaining as improved sentiment surrounding Europe and improving data here in the U.S. had the bulls pushing higher from the ... Read More »"
      
    Marketwatch says: 
    Clear top not yet in place  
    Goldman CFO warns of fragile recovery, weak M&A
    Michael Ashbaugh: S&P 500 returns to scene of the breakdown
    Irwin Kellner asks:Whose belt would you tighten?   
    Options plays on Bakken Shale  
    Mark Hulbert tells us What the euro’s strength can teach us  
    Darell Delamaide says that With left swing, France may defy austerity
    New crisis in Europe is biggest global risk: IMF.

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Green is Good But  "There's a lot of green on the screens today as traders have flipped the switch to back to "Risk On." However, the bottom line is that this market remains in a ... Read More »"
    They Say That An Apple A Day   "Good Morning. After defying the naysayers, a great deal of logic, as well as gravity for the past four and one-half months, the coolest company in the world has had a rough go of it over the last week. After hitting a high of $644 on April 10th, shares of Apple (AAPL) have done a pretty decent swan dive impression as the stock closed yesterday at $580.13, a cool $64 (or just about 10%) off the top - all in a matter of five trading days. But after completing a ... Read More »"
    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Update  
    Housing Starts Weaker in March But Permits Up Nicely       
    Goldman Sachs Earnings Beat Expectaions, Shares Lower  
    Spain T-Bill Auction Well Received With Higher Rates  
    German ZEW Confidence Index Reaches 22-Month High

    Market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-4-16: (Monday Night): The markets ended mixed today, with the Dow up and the S&P and NASDAQ down: Dow shines, tech declines; Blue-chips hold gains, but tech sector lags. The NASDAQ Composite fell 22.93 (-0.76%) to end at 2,988.40. The Dow advanced 71.82 points (1.56%) to close at  12,921.41; the S&P 500 dropped 0.69 points (-0.05%) to settle at 1,369.57. Oil rose to 103.19: Oil ends up-and-down session 0.1% higher; gold ended at 1660: Gold futures end at lowest in a week. The VIX remained unchanged at 19.55.
    It feels to me as though there's a consensus that this bull market has temporarily run its course and is in the throes of a major correction. And you know what happens when there's widespread agreement on which way the markets are going to go... (On the other hand,, Mark Hulbert notes that sentiment has become frothy: Bull markets don’t improve with age.)
      
    Marketwatch says: 
    Clear top not yet in place  
    Three signs the bull market is ending
    Michael Gaued asks: Is Walmart signaling a deflation pulse?
    Craig Stephens asks: Is high oil price behind China’s slowdown?   
    Rex Nutting asks: Are baby boomers taking all the jobs?  
    Correction arrives as key trend line breaks  
    Summer stumble redux for stocks?
    David Marsh addresses Soros, Trichet and the Asians.

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    And We're Back To That...  "Good Morning. After four months of watching the bulls march merrily higher on a daily basis, with nary a single bout of volatility along the way, suddenly we're back to what is beginning to feel like the bad old days of 2011. A market that had no memory from one day to the next. A market that gave the word volatility new meaning. And a market where investors were forced to watch any and all headlines from countries they'd only visited (or dreamed of visiting) on vacation as well as securities they'd never heard of before. (Come on, admit it; did you really watch European ... Read More »"
    Retail Sales in U.S. Stronger Than Expected in March   "It's all about the U.S. consumer these days (recall that consumers account for more than 70% of GDP) so the report on Retail Sales is closely watched. ... Read More »"
    NAHB Hombuilder Confidence Index Pulls Back in April  
    Business Inventories Up in February       
    Empire Manufacturing Index a Big Disappointment in April  
    Citi's Earnings Beat Estimates But Revenues Short of Expectations  
    The Early Look: Futures Following Europe

    Market futures are flat tonight.. 


2012-4-13: (Friday Night): The stock market tumbled back down today: Stocks' worst week of year; Stocks: Worst week of the year, S&P 500 sinks 2%. The NASDAQ Composite added 39.09 (1.3%) to end at 3,055.55. The Dow shot up 181.19 points (1.41%) to close at  12,986.58; the S&P 500 rose 18.86 points (1.38%) to settle at 1,387.57. Oil rose to 103.71: Oil rallies on dovish Fed comments, dollar; gold ended at 1677: Gold inches lower, gives back previous gains. The VIX fell 2.82 to 17.20.
    "Friday the 13th gives stocks the jitters, spurred by slower growth in China and more Europe woes. J.P. Morgan, Google earnings spark trading action."
      
    Marketwatch says: 
    Climb the wall of worry  
    David Weidner says: Buy low sell high? Not now
    Mark Hulbert observes that Bull markets do not improve with age. This is the same Mark Hulbert who said, day before yesterday: Only modest correction ahead.
    Treasurys gain; 10-year yields fall under 2%   
    S&P 500 breaks below 50-day average.  Note that this is the third time the S&P 500 has closed below its 50-day moving average this week.
    China's growth report disappoints   
    Investors brace for more pain from Spain
    Revisiting George Orwell’s 1930s England  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    China's GDP Growth Rate Continues To Slow  "China'a GDP growth rate has become a closely watched proxy for global macro growth expectations. Unfortunately GDP slipped again in the first quarter to the lowest rate in nearly three years... ... Read More »"
    Break? We Don't Need No Stinking...   "Good Morning. In yesterday morning's meandering missive, I opined that it might be an appropriate time for the bulls as well as the fast-money traders to take a break. Exhibit A in my thesis was the fact that the market tends to pause for a few months after new bull markets reach the six-month mark. And since the recent top in the S&P 500 on April 2nd also just happened to correspond with the new bull's six-month birthday, it seemed reasonable to assume that we just might be entering a ... Read More »"
    What Is Up With AAPL? (Part II)  
    University of Michigan Sentiment Index Pulls Back in April       
    CPI Report Shows Inflation Remains Modest  
    China Cuts Reserve Ratio For Some Banks  
    JPMorgan Chase Earnings Above Estimates, Ups Dividend

    I haven't a clue what's coming next, but Europe is an ongoing train wreck. 


2012-4-12: (Wednesday Night): The stock market turned up smartly again today: Rally bounces into 2nd day; Stocks Rebound as Rumor Mill Running Full-Bore . The NASDAQ Composite added 39.09 (1.3%) to end at 3,055.55. The Dow shot up 181.19 points (1.41%) to close at  12,986.58; the S&P 500 rose 18.86 points (1.38%) to settle at 1,387.57. Oil rose to 103.71: Oil rallies on dovish Fed comments, dollar; gold ended at 1677: Gold inches lower, gives back previous gains. The VIX fell 2.82 to 17.20.
    "Despite aweaker than expected report on Jobless Claims, rising bond yields in Italy, and the World Bank’s downgrade of China’s growth expectations, stocks have blasted higher out of the gate – ... Read More »"
    "Investors extend buying to a second day Thursday, shrugging off mixed bag of U.S. data. Mood is boosted by lower bond yields in Europe."  
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    No QE3 this year?  
    Recovery has 'long way to go': Fed's Raskin
    Fed's Yellen : Growth and jobs call for low rates 
    New York Fed's Dudley cautions on job growth.  
    Tomi Kilgore says: Pullback enters sell-on-rally phase   
    Kevin Marder says Market direction? Down
    Darell Delamaide warns of the
Last chance to avoid nasty euro train wreck.
    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Is It Time To Take a Break?  "Good Morning. It seems that the only folks left in the stock market game these days are professional traders. Gone are the soccer moms that decided to take up day-trading in the late 1990's. Gone are the guys that decided to quit their jobs and trade futures in their pajamas. Also gone are the millions of Americans who used to dabble in the stock market trading Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) or Google (GOOG) at lunch and then spending their weekends pouring over Barron's and plotting their next purchases. ... Read More »"
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Sags 
    Producer Price Index Unchanged in March, But  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Remains High       
    Weekly Jobless Claims An Unpleasant Surprise  
    World Bank Cuts China Growth Forecast, Chinese Shares Spike Higher  
     Yields Rise at Italian Bond Auction

    Market futures are down 0.15% tonight.


2012-4-11: (Wednesday Night): The stock market turned up today: Bulls come back swinging; . The NASDAQ Composite added 25.84 (0.84%) to end at 3,016.46. The Dow regained 89.46 points (0.7%) to close at  12,805.39; the S&P 500 rose 10.12 points (0.74%) to settle at 1,368.71. Oil rose to 102.56: Oil bounces after inventories, as U.S. stocks rise; gold ended at 1659: Gold inches lower, gives back previous gains. The VIX rose 0.37 to 20.02.
    "Stocks rebound after their losing run, as Spanish and Italian bond yields fall and Alcoa posts profit."
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Beige Book continues to see moderate growth
    U.S. deficit shrinks in first half of fiscal year  
    Fed’s Yellen makes case for keeping rates low.  
    How billionaires are beating this market   
    Mark Hulbert says Only modest correction ahead.. 
    Matthew Lynn advises us that
The Bundesbank will stamp out this rally.
    A slowly healing housing market   
    Michael Ashbaugh says: Market downturn inflicts technical damage
    "Despite Wednesday’s strong start, this week’s downturn raises technical caution flags. Most obviously, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has violated significant support, including its 50-day moving average, signaling an intermediate-term downtrend, detailed below."

    Ir win Kellner writes: Through Wall Street’s looking glass.  

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Bulls Have Work Cut Out For Them  "Although it does appear to be a risk on day at the present time, the current bounce changes little from a technical perspective. In short, the bulls have some work to do in order to... ... Read More »"
    This Time It Really Is Different, Right?  "Good Morning. Although I utilize models and disciplined systems coupled with trading rules in my approach to managing the market, I do think it helps to understand what is happening in the market and why - if for no other reason than it helps you implement your signals at times. In fact, I believe that oftentimes the "why" is much more important than the "what" when it comes to staying in tune with Ms. Market's moods. The current pullback happening in the stock market is a perfect example. After nearly four months of straight-up movement, ... Read More »"
    No New All-Time High For Apple Today - What Gives- 
    FedHead Views Still All Over The Map  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Remains High       
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Remain Bullish  
    Europe Update: Yields Soar in Italy, ECB Says It Has Ammo  

    Market futures are up 0.2% tonight.


2012-4-10: (Tuesday Night): Today was so bad, it made yesterday look good: U.S. stocks suffer worst drop of year; Stocks Down 5 Straight as Correction Picks Up Steam . The NASDAQ Composite skidded 55.86 (-1.83%) to end at 2,991.22. The Dow nose-dived 213.66 points (-1.65%) to close at  12,715.93; the S&P 500 declined 23.61 points (-1.71%) to settle at 1,358.59. Oil fell to 101.28: Oil ends 1.4% lower, barely holds above $101; gold ended at 1656: Gold ends 1% higher on safe-haven flows. The VIX rose 1.58 to 20.39.
    "Stocks finished significantly lower again on Tuesday, marking the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell’s fifth consecutive decline. Tuesday also market the single largest decline of 2012 for the S&P 500, as ... Read More »"
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Ashbaugh asks Healthy pullback, or major market top?
    Thomas Kee says: European slowdown an earnings culprit.  
    Michael Gayed asks Was that the bottom in gold?   
    Mark Hulbert observes that Gold’s sentiment foundation bullish
   
Consumers inexplicably cheerful  
 
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Is It Time To Rethink The Thesis?  "Good Morning. We had an interesting discussion in the office yesterday about what is, has been, and will be driving the stock market. To my surprise, there was some lively discussion and differing opinions on what has been the impetus behind this year's joyride to the upside. To me, this is an easy one as I'm of the mind that it's been the better-than-expected economic data combined with the grossly ... Read More »"
    Alcoa Beats Earnings Expectations, Stock Surges After Hours
    Business Inventories Exceed Expectations in February (And yes, you should care) 
    China Stocks Rebound On Easing Hopes  
    Bernanke Offers No Clues On QE3       

    Market futures are up 0.3 % tonight.


2012-4-9: (Monday Night): The market indices tanked today amid bad news on the jobs front: Stocks take payrolls plunge; . The NASDAQ Composite added 33.42 (-1.08%) to end at 3,047.08. The Dow dropped 130.55 points (-1%) to close at  12,929.59; the S&P 500 declined 15.88 points (-1.14%) to settle at 1,382.20. Oil fell to 102.91: Oil tumbles; gold ended at 1643: Gold rises. The VIX rose 2.07 to 18.77.
    "A steep pullback grips U. S. stocks as investors rendered their verdict on weaker-than-forecast nonfarm payrolls reported Friday."
    "U.S. stocks closed mixed Thursday, with the broader market falling for a third day, amid renewed worries about the debt crisis in Europe. More"
    With a long weekend coming up (tomorrow, Black Friday, is a stock-market holiday), traders probably didn't want to be long over the weekend, especially with the weekly jobs report coming tomorrow while the markets are closed.  
    State of the Markets is suggesting that we're seeing a consolidation after a big run-up. 

    Marketwatch says: 
    Odds of a stock-market top still strong here
    Jon Markman says: Negative news means more Fed action.  
    Michael Gayed tells about Retailers and a correction   
    Stock pain often short-lived after jobs
   
Europe likely to face bumpy open  
    Spain's de Guindos- Economy will grow in 2013  
    Look for post-correction market highs  
    Treasury yields fall to one-month lows  
    Where to go if you ‘sell in May and go away’  "After a blowout first quarter, investors may be feeling a sense of deja vu: both 2010 and 2011 saw an early rally followed by a spring downturn."
   
Sharp selloff in cards before May  

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Jobs Report Shocker: Nonfarm Payrolls Up Half Expectations  "Although stock markets were closed in the U.S. and Europe on Friday in observance of Good Friday, the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls report was released as scheduled and was a big surprise ... Read More »"
    It's 'Game Back On' After Jobs Report  "Good Morning. The stock market has been largely a one-way street for the better part of the last four months. As we've mentioned a time or two, the impetus for the surprisingly strong market performance has been the correspondingly surprising strong economic performance of the U.S. and economy. And because of the mostly better-than-expected economic data, traders have been able to brush aside the difficulties facing Europe and the less than inspiring economic data out of China. The bulls contend that since the U.S. is the world's biggest economy, as long as the good 'ol ... Read More »"
    Hedge Funds Panic Into Market in Q1, But Can the Buying Continue- 
    CEO Confidence Levels Soar in First Quarter  
    Bloomberg Consumer Index Shows Public Mood Perking Up       

    Market futures are up ½ % tonight.

2010 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Alternative Energy Investments     

Super-Bull Markets and Super-Bear Markets from 1871 to the Present

What's this going to do to my retirement? Can I ever make this up?

This "recession" is categorically different in cause and consequences than other recessions.

How large is the national debt, really?

What Should You Do About the Fluctuations in the Stock Market?

"With the economy sinking like a stone, how can anyone seriously claim that a new bull market is about to start?

Daily Investment Interpretations

 


2012-6-8: (Friday Night): The markets leaped today and then fell, to close mixed: U.S. stock indexes rise on hope for Europe; Stocks- Best week of 2012. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 26.60 points (0.93%) to end at 2,858.42. The Dow added 93.24 points (0.75%) to close at  12,554.20; the S&P 500 advanced 10.67 points (0.81%) to settle at 1,325.66. Oil ended the day at 84.37: Oil snaps five-week losing streak; gold logged off at 1595: Gold ends higher, but suffers a weekly loss. The VIX dropped 0.49 to 21.23.
    "Stocks rise after President Obama urges Europe to act quickly to combat its economic crisis and on report Spain is close to asking for help."
    "
U.S. stocks rose Friday, capping the best week of the year, amid speculation that Spain will request a bailout for its troubled banking sector over the weekend. More".
    Last night, I wrote: " The markets were looking for follow-through today and they didn't get it. Looking at the charts, I'd expect further market erosion tomorrow.  In our headline-driven market environment, I'd want to be in cash in case any wicked surprises show up over the weekend." Yeah. That's what I wrote. Good thing I didn't act on my prediction.

    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. debt load falling at fastest pace since ‘50s.
    U.S. trade deficit for April reflects weaker exports.  
    Wholesale inventories increase 0.6%  
    Obama warns on Greece  "President takes a more strident tone with Europe, urging leaders to aid the troubled banking sector and warning Greece not to leave the euro zone."
    Blocked at home, Obama gives advice to Europe 
    Moody's: Spain, Greece may trip more rating cuts  
    S&P affirms U.S. credit rating, outlook negative  
    Pavlik: Watch out for Greek elections  
    U.S. braces for U.K.-style revolt.  "U. S. boards should brace themselves for mounting dissatisfaction with ececutive compensation as the current 'shareholder spring' in Europe spreads."
    Europe may issue joint bond, just not ‘euro bond’  
    Gabriel Stein: Why sweat a Greek exit?.
    EU troubles bite into German trade  
    What if the Fed's forced to action?  
    Michael Gayed advises that Bear fever is breaking
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    You Pick Your Spots  "Imagine if you will that you are currently wearing the shoes of either "Gentle Ben" Bernanke or "Super Mario" Draghi, who happen to head the central banks of the USofA and the European Union. If you are interested in playing along this morning, think about what is going on in the world right now and then spend some time trying to figure out what you'd do next. And no, jetting off to the south of France and burying your head in the sand is not really an option! The whole of the financial world is basically clamoring for your thoughts, ... Read More »"
    Wholesale Inventories Above Expectations 
    Report: Spain To Request Aid This Weekend  
    Japanese GDP Above Expectations in Q1    
    Real Time Strategy Sneak Peek: The PRO Trader  


2012-6-7: (Thursday Night): The markets leaped today and then fell, to close mixed: Wall Street's rally fizzles; Stock rally fades as Bernanke kills stimulus buzz. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 13.70 points (-0.48%) to end at 2,731.02. The Dow added 0.14 points (-0.01%) to close at  12,460.96; the S&P 500 advanced 7.32 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,314.99. Oil ended the day at 83.01: Oil ends higher, but supply data cap gains; gold logged off at 1590: Gold falls after Bernanke, China rate cut. The VIX dropped 0.44 to 21.72.
    "Dow steps back from an earlier triple-digit advance while Nasdaq and S&P see day's gains vanish."
    "
U.S. stocks ended mixed Thursday, trimming gains from earlier in the day, as comments from Ben Bernanke tempered hopes for immediate stimulus by the Federal Reserve. More".
    The markets were looking for follow-through today and they didn't get it. Looking at the charts, I'd expect further market erosion tomorrow. In our headline-driven market environment, I'd want to be in cash in case any wicked surprises show up over the weekend.

    Marketwatch says: 
    Fed keeps its guard up.
    Fed's Fisher: China must open financial sector.  
    30-year mortgage at 3.67%  
    Jobless claims fall  
    Todd Harrison writes that Deflation is elephant in room.  
    China's central bank cuts interest rates  
    Rate cuts across the globe.
    Germany and France can’t afford euro-zone bailout  
    Fitch cuts Spain credit rating to BBB  
    Kevin Marder gives us 3 reasons to like this rally
    David Callaway avers that Obama’s following me; and the bull is back  
    Darrell Delamaide writes that it's Time to start throwing money at euro crisis  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Bulls Looking For Follow-Through  
    Bernanke Says Fed Stands Ready if Economy Threatened "Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered testimony on Capitol Hill saying that the Federal Reserve stands ready to help protect the economy and the financial system if... ... Read More »"
    Can Hope Continue To Prevail?  "After the near 10% correction (the S&P 500 fell -9.936% on a closing basis to be exact) that occurred from April 1 through Friday, it is safe to say that there wasn't a whole lot of hope in the market. No, as of Monday morning, reality had become the dominant force. As in the reality that almost all of the economic reports in the U.S. had come in WTE (weaker than expected). As in China's economy was no longer growing at a 10% rate. And as in the reality that there wasn't going to be ... Read More »
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Improves  
    Report: Spanish Banks Will Need 40 Billion Capital Infusion
    Spanish Bond Auction Raises Maximum  
    EU Says No Bank Rescue Plan For Spain in Works    
    
    Market futures are modestly (~⅓ %) lower tonight.


2012-6-6: (Wednesday Night): The markets leaped today: Dow's triple-digit comeback; Dow, S&P 500 post biggest gains of 2012. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 18.10 points (0.66%) to end at 2,778.11. The Dow added 26.49 points (0.22%) to close at  12,127.95; the S&P 500 advanced 7.32 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,285.50. Oil ended the day at 85.08: Oil ends higher, but supply data cap gains; gold logged off at 1623: Gold futures log highest close in a month. The VIX dropped 1.44 to 24.68.
    "Dow industrials are set for their largest single-day jump of the year, as pressure mounts on policy makers to come up with additional stimulus. Major U.S. stock indexes are up about 2%."
    "
U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 logging their best gains of the year, as investors grew hopeful that more stimulus for the global economy is around the corner. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. productivity falls 0.9% in first quarter.
    Fed sees moderate growth.  
    Atlanta Fed's Lockhart broaches further Twist  
    Fed’s Yellen keeps door open for more easing  
    Europe's woes hurting U.S.: Fed's Williams  
    Have the Fed's efforts helped? (video)  
    Mark Hulbert says: Mark Hulbert: Market's significantly undervalued. |   Hulbert's take on why stocks are cheap (video). 
    Michael Gayad points to More evidence of correction's end  "After underperforming the past few years, emerging markets are showing the signs of a potential turn, adding a piece to the end-of-correction puzzle."
    Imagining an end to the dollar’s reign 
    Matthew Lynn enumerates: 5 ways to trade euro’s game of chicken.  
    China eats world  "China's overseas investment surges in the first quarter as state-owned companies snap up resource-related assets around the globe, says a firm investing for China's sovereign-wealth fund."
    Money flows into slowing China  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Can It Last? "The bulls are putting in on an impressive show so far today as the hope trade is definitely set to the "on" position. However, the key question at this point is ... Read More »"
    It's Tough Out There  "There is no denying the fact that the stock market has not exactly been a friendly place to invest since April 1st. Of course, prior to April Fool's Day the stock market had been uncharacteristically warm and cozy as the S&P had set some sort of record for the most consecutive days without experiencing a decline of 1% or more. And after the nightmare that was seen from summer through late fall of 2011, the one-way market advance was a welcome change. However, since the bull-market high on 4/1 (which, in hindsight was a fairly ... Read More »
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Remain Cautious  
    ECB Holds Rates Steady, Keeps Hope for Action Alive
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Fades  
    Q1 Worker Productivity, Unit Labor Costs Slip    
    Hilsenrath: Fed Ready To Consider Additional Action     
    Germany's Industrial Production Falls    

    Market futures are modestly (~⅓ %) higher again tonight.


2012-6-5: (Tuesday Night): The markets closed mixed today: Dow industrials snag gain after upbeat data; Stocks end higher on upbeat report. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 18.10 points (0.66%) to end at 2,778.11. The Dow added 26.49 points (0.22%) to close at  12,127.95; the S&P 500 advanced 7.32 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,285.50. Oil ended the day at 84.07: Oil tops $84 as traders weigh Europe, economy; gold logged off at 1618: Gold futures settle higher, fail to reclaim $1,620. The VIX dropped 1.44 to 24.68.
    "Stocks rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher for the first time in five sessions, after better-than-expected services-sector data."
    "
U.S. stocks finished higher Tuesday, but the gains were limited as investors weighed an upbeat U.S. economic report against Europe's ongoing debt problems. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. factory orders decline  "Orders for goods produced in U.S. factories decline 0.6% in April, the Commerce Department reports."
    Darrell Delamaide notes that Obama hopes dim with economic missteps.
    David Weidner observes that Finally there’s straight talk on Wall Street.  
    Mark Hulbert says: Correction's close to being over. He bases this conclusion on the extreme current level of pessimism.
    But Jon markman asks: Is the bear around the corner?
    How to break the vicious cycle  
    Fed’s Bullard: Jobless rate doesn’t change outlook  One disappointing jobs report isn't enough to recalibrate Fed policy.
    Euro stays down after G-7 call  European leaders today participate in a teleconference call, but apparently, nothing substantive came out of the meeting, and the Euro didn't rise on foreign currency markets.
    Europe stocks buoyed by U.S. services data         
    European Central Bank likely to stay on fence  "European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s frustration is showing, but he remains unlikely just yet to ride to the rescue of the euro zone."
    Germany will rescue euro zone: ex-Deutsche Bank chief  
    China in reverse  "China will have a hard time living up to its growth targets this year, according to analysts who say a reality check could be coming for policy makers seen as able to move the economy at will."
    China plans for potential Greek euro exit: report  
    Long-term Treasury yields rise for second day  It's "risk-off" again.
    Michael Gayad says: Bonds acting as if there's been a 'Lehman' event.
    "I also maintain my original stance that stocks may yet have a massive move higher into year-end as the reflation trade reasserts itself again. And given that our ATAC (Accelerated Time And Capital) models used for managing client accounts positioned us into equities during the first quarter, went into bonds in early April, and is now preparing for another rotation back into stocks in the next two to three weeks given market behavior, I am beyond excited for the next melt-up.
    "What makes me so bullish? The answer is simple — the payout for betting on the negative Black Swan likely no longer exists because various intermarket trends have behaved as if 1) a significant Crash/massive correction in absolute terms has already happened, and 2) given the pricing in of an event which has not actually occurred. In the first segment I did Monday, I talked about the price ratio of the 20+ Year Treasury ETF /quotes/zigman/1480195/quotes/nls/tlt TLT -1.34% relative to the 7-10 Year Treasury ETF /quotes/zigman/1480156/quotes/nls/ief IEF -0.33% . That ratio has factually behaved as if Lehman has already passed ( http://www.bloomberg.com/video/94069685-making-the-bullish-case-for-stocks.html ). Let me reiterate: the bond market has behaved like a Lehman event/credit seize-up has actually occurred."
    "The payout for betting against the crowd and bull market in fear must by definition be significant because everyone else internally within the markets has bet on the negative narrative as if it is a 100% certainty that the whole thing is going down. Yet, the Black Swan of all Black Swans is that something positive happens, and that the end of the world gets avoided. Note that this is not a counter argument to the long-term bears/deflationists, who may be right over time. I am addressing an extreme that contextually does not make sense for the here and now. Fear is rarely "preemptive," and the crowd is rarely ever right at the extremes. Furthermore, because 2008 happened, that is the story everyone has anchored on to ... that is the map everyone is using to navigate this environment. But it's a completely different forest."
    We'll see. I'm buying index-based ETFs such as SPY or SSO when the markets go up, and shifting into cash or inverse ETFs when they go down. My buy and sell signals are coming from State of the Markets' Daily Decision Service. (Unfortunately, I can't relay them here because the Daily Decision Service is a paid subscription-based service.)
    Michael Ashbaugh charts technical breakdown.
    Mick Weinstein: Where's the volatility?   
    Cody Willard warns about Nailing a market bottom. "Cody will never forget the hard lessons learned from one particular market bottom."   
    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market  
    Technical Talk- Hope vs. Reality Battle Rages On 
    Just Who Is That Expert Guest-  "We have written several times in this space on the potential hazards to your portfolio in listening to the latest market “guidance” or specific stock “recommendations” by the panelists or guests you may hear on a financial news network. There is no need to go through all the reasons why this is a bad practice and simple common sense, which we all admittedly lack at times, should tell you it is a bad idea. But it is hard to resist the siren song when that “professional” you respect is making a compelling case for why the market is certain to go up or down, or why that stock is the next AAPL or the next RIMM. But whether that expert ... Read More »
    Spain Reverses Position, Says Country is Shut Out of Credit Markets  
    Market Mover: EFSF Preparing Credit Line For Spain
    G-7 Call Produces Little, No Statement to be Issued  
    ISM Non-Manufacturing Report Above Consensus    
    The Game is About Hope Versus Reality 

    Market futures are modestly (~⅓ %) higher tonight.


2012-6-4: (Monday Night): The markets closed mixed today: U.S. stocks shed most losses on Fed hopes; Stocks choppy as fear trade continues . The NASDAQ Composite closed up 12.53 points (0.46%) to end at 2,760.01. The Dow declined 17.18 points (-0.14%) to close at  12,101.39; the S&P 500 minced up 0.13 points (0.01%) to settle at 1,278.17. Oil ended the day at 84.18: Oil futures top $84 ahead of Nymex settlement; gold logged off at 1616: Gold futures close with a loss of over $8. The VIX dropped 0.82 to 25.84.
    "U.S. stocks in the red after a report on factory orders shows a decline, in contrast to economists' expectations. Concerns over sluggish U.S. jobs growth, a China slowdown, and a tottering Spanish banking system are all weighing on sentiment."
    "
Worries about a global growth slowdown and uncertainty surrounding Europe's debt crisis kept investors on edge and stock trading choppy Monday. More"
    The markets closed Friday in a panic state. Now, the markets may be quite oversold and susceptible to a dead-cat bounce.
    Given that high-frequency traders are using keyword-driven, headline-based trading programs, it would seem to me to be a simple matter, if one owned the major financial-media outlets, to implement one's own trades a millisecond or two before one's headline releases reached the high-frequency trading practitioners.

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. factory orders decline  "Orders for goods produced in U.S. factories decline 0.6% in April, the Commerce Department reports."
    Summer slowdown  "
With investors in a sour mood and volumes set to lighten, check out MarketWatch's experts on trading one of the year's most challenging months."
    Mark Hulbert asks: Will the summer rally begin in June?
    Go away in May, come back in June
    Playing Europe in the near term
    European Central Bank's 7 phases  "Central banker Mario Draghi (left) must navigate an obstacle course that appears to hinge largely on developments in Spain, writes David Marsh."
    Soros: Clock's ticking on ending Europe crisis  
    Germany may yet be open to euro bonds  
    Europe weighs bank recapitalization via ESM  
    Spain's Rajoy calls for more EU control  
    Portugal's retrenchment deemed on track  
    Cyprus may be next to seek bailout  
    G-7 set to talk Europe on Tuesday  
    Craig Stephen observes: This Week in China: The slowdown spreads  
    China’s services show economic weakness             
    U.S. 10-year yields erase rise from record low  In other words, the "risk-off" flight to safety is back on.
    Nigam Arora writes The great bond bubble joins the S&P  
    Small-business slowdown  "Lawmakers in D.C. have criticized banks for not lending enough to small businesses. But is the blame misplaced?"
    Cody Willard explains Why I’m buying this market. "Lessons from Cody's hedge fund days taught him to buy when there is panic."   
    Get ready for Dow 11,000  
    Michael Gayad explains Why another stock melt-up is likely.  

    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Sometimes It's Easy "Sometimes understanding what is going on in the markets is pretty straightforward and Monday appears to be one of those times. The charts tell us ... Read More »"
    The Dance Continues  "Here we go again. While I'm not sure exactly how many times we've done this dance before, it looks as if the European leaders have come up with the latest and greatest plan to save the day. Just when investors appear to have given up hope and that stock prices around the globe are about to get a lot worse than they already are (if Friday's dive in the major indices didn't spell out this idea then the record low in bond and bund yields, the spike in the UUP (U.S. dollar) and the GLD (gold etf), as well as the ongoing fall in commodity ... Read More »
    Why a 'Grexit' Would Make Lehman Look Like Childs Play  "Maybe I’m wrong, but every time I look at the possibility of a Greek exit right now I see it spiraling out of control and dragging down the entire global economy. I hear and read the arguments of why it is controllable and they just don’t seem credible. They either... "
    Europe Update: Germany Softening Opposition to Eurobonds-  
    China's Services PMI Pulls Back in May    
      
    On Friday, I wrote, " This week ended with the markets falling off a cliff. Let's see what happens this weekend." In fact, nothing happened this weekend, but this morning, Eurozone principals made soothing remarks, and market futures went from very negative to somewhat positive.
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2012-6-1: (Friday Night): The markets dove today on weaker-than- expected U. S. economic data: U.S. stocks sink as global growth view teeters; Stocks slammed as Dow erases 2012 gains; Stocks' worst day in 6 mos; S&P 500, down 10% since April, is in correction; . The NASDAQ Composite closed down 79.86 points (-2.82%) to end at 2,747.48. The Dow deflated 274.88 points (-2.22%) to close at  12,118.57; the S&P 500 declined 32.29 points (-2.46%) to settle at 1,310.33. Oil ended the day at 83.25: lOil ends well below $84, loses over 8% on week; gold logged off at 1561: Gold scores biggest single-day gain since August. The VIX jumped 2.60 to 26.66.
    "Stocks dive 2% or more, wiping out 2012 gains, as U.S. jobs data sparks fears of a slowdown."
   
"Wall Street suffered its bloodiest day of the year Friday as U.S. stocks sank more than 2% following an ugly jobs report. The Dow erased all its gains for the year, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved into correction territory, down more than 10% from the year's highs. More"
    The S&P 500 index has closed below its two-week-ago lows and just below its 200-day moving average, and faces little resistance all the way down to the 1205 level. The intermediate term trend is no longer up.
   
An alternative scenario is presented in this article: Friday Fake Out: The Bear Trap Has Sprung. The author suggests that The Fed may try to reverse this market rout over the weekend. If so, today's action could turn out to be a final bear market washout, followed by a rebound. 
    If not, the author says he will be a lot more bearish on Monday morning. 

     
    Marketwatch says: 
   
S&P 500 in 10% correction  "The S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -2.47% fell 2.4% on Friday, taking the index of large-cap U.S. stocks more than 10% off its 52-week intraday high -- or what many analysts term a correction. The Nasdaq Composite /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP -2.83% had already met that definition ahead of Friday's stock retreat and is now 12% lower than its recent high. The Dow is 9% below its 52-week peak. A correction for stocks "doesn't mean we're in a bear market. But it does mean you have to recalibrate for a world where the U.S. is going to barely grow 2%, Europe is a chronic source of stress, and emerging markets at least for now, are not contributing much," said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock iShares."
    U.S. 10-year yields fall under 1.50% after jobs  
    Employment, economic growth slow down  
    Dollar facing Fed pressure  "Greenback gives ground as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will be driven to action by weak gains in U.S. job market"
    U.S. adds 69,000 jobs in May.  "The U.S. generates the fewest new jobs in a year as the unemployment rate ticks up."
    2012 gain gone  "Stocks skid on U.S. jobs report and data from China and Europe. Dow turns negative for year."
    The price of a do-nothing Congress  "The focus on austerity has forced the U.S. job market into a holding pattern, Heather Boushey says."
    Rex Nutting writes: Investments in the future have dried up  "During the Great Depression, we built roads and bridges and infrastructure we enjoy today. Now, Rex Nutting says, we're seeing spending tumble."
    Construction spending up.  
    Factory index declines a bit  
    Mark Hulbert notes that GDP growth 1% higher than month ago.  
    GDP: Reasons to be cheerful  
    Myra Saefong writes about Gold’s new identity crisis.  
    tFor Spaniards, there’s no going back to the peseta 
    Irish voters back fiscal treaty in referendum
    Euro-zone manufacturing downshifts in May.
    Peter Brimelow asks: Is your stock a tennis ball or an egg?  

    Friday Fake Out: The Bear Trap Has Sprung    
    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    May Jobs Report a Big Disappointment  "The Big Kahuna of economic reports - aka Nonfarm Payrolls - showed that the economy created just 69,000 jobs during the month of May. This was a huge miss as expectations had been for ... Read More »"
    Are You Prepared for the Summer of Discontent III?  "Sell in May and go away. It appears that is just about everything an investor needs to know these days. You see, selling in May certainly worked well in 2006, it eventually saved you some pain in 2007, was prophetic in 2008, modestly profitable in 2009, very helpful in 2010, a life saver in 2011, and a darned good idea this year as the S&P 500 fell -6.27% last month. To be honest, I'm not completely sure why this old Wall Streetism works. But this year the reasons were pretty simple as it appears that investors are headed for yet ... Read More »
    ISM Report Shows Growth Slowing  
    Construction Spending Up Modestly in April   
    Personal Income and Spending Report No Help  
    Eurozone PMI's (Final) Show Contraction Continues  
    China's Official PMI Pulls Back in May    
      
    This week ended with the markets falling off a cliff. Let's see what happens this weekend.


2012-5-31: (Thursday Night): The markets fell a little today: U.S. stocks drop 6% in May, worst for Dow in 2 yrs; Dow, Nasdaq: Worst month in two years. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 10.02 points (-0.35%) to end at 2,827.34. The Dow climbed 26.41 points (-0.21%) to close at  12,393.45; the S&P 500 declined 2.99 points (-0.23%) to settle at 1,310.33. Oil ended the day at 86.68: Oil's 17% drop in May is worst since Dec. 2008; gold logged off at 1561: Gold futures slip after economic data. The VIX slipped 0.06 to 24.06.     Technically speaking, the markets are retesting their two-week-ago  lows.
    "Stocks clear bulk of losses, but Dow industrials still suffer their first monthly loss in eight" 
    "U.S. stocks finished in the red Thursday, ending a wretched month on a weak note. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    IMF looking at Spain bailout: report  
    Kevin Marder says that Europe goes from messy to messier.
    Irish voters expected to back EU’s fiscal compact  
    St. Louis Fed's Bullard: Europe action needed.  
    Euro bounces back as weak U.S. data in spotlight  
    Ireland voting on EU fiscal compact  
    Matthew Lynn says Spain will leave euro first 
    Harry Dent sees Germany quitting euro  "Harry Dent mulls prospect that Germany, not Greece or Spain, will quit Eurozone."
    David Callaway says Markets will rally when Greece leaves euro.
    Global crisis plays out in NY’s gold market
    ADP: May private-sector payrolls up 133,000

    First-time jobless claims trend higher  
    U.S. GDP revised down to 1.9% growth rate
    Chicago PMI down again, hinting at recession  
    Cleveland Fed's Pianalto: Cyclical weakness  
    Moves to make if the U.S. gets downgraded  
    Goldman sees significant opportunity in Europe  
    
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: The Retest is On  
    Does Any Of It Really Matter?  "It was a tough day for the S&P 500 on Wednesday as the blue chip index gave back 1.43%, which wiped out the entire gain seen over the prior five sessions. I'm told it was a "90% down day" as down volume swamped up volume by more than 14 to 1 and that the all-important 50-day moving average was breached to the downside. Other harbingers of bad things to come included the Euro (FXE) diving to lowest level in two years, gold (GLD) and the dollar (UUP) surging, commodities (DBC) plunging, the VIX (VXZ) spiking, and the yield on the ... Read More »
    Market Mover: IMF Working On Contigency Plan for Spain  
    Spain Follow-Up: Spain Says No Plans in Works   
    "We Are Programmed to Receive" Redux  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Improves  
    Chicago PMI At Lowest Level Since Sept 2009  
    U.S. GDP Growth Revised Lower for First Quarter 
    Weekly Jobless Claims Higher Continue To Rise  
    ADP Employment Report: Job Growth Below Expectations  
      
    Market futures are ~½ % lower tonight.


2012-5-30: (Wednesday Night): The markets fell today: Street hit over Europe fears; Stocks gain as worries about Europe abate. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 33.46 points (1.18%) to end at 2,870.99. The Dow climbed 125.86 points (1.01%) to close at  12,580.69; the S&P 500 declined 14.86 points (1.11%) to settle at 1,332.42. Oil ended the day at 90.75: Oil posts modest retreat as the dollar gains; gold logged off at 1556: Gold loses over $20 as dollar gains on Spain. The VIX slipped 0.59 to 21.17.  
    "Major indexes rise on positive signs from Greece, but euro's drop below $1.25 rattles a few nerves." 
    "U.S. stocks rose Tuesday as investors welcomed a lack of negative headlines out of Europe and hopes that China will move to support its economy. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Spain worse than Greece?  "Matthew Lynn lists six reasons why Spain is more likely to pull out of the euro than Greece."
    Irish voters expected to back EU’s fiscal compact  "Ireland, two years after its bailout, is expected to shrug off warnings of further austerity and come out in support of tighter, European Union-mandated budget and debt controls."
    Michael Gayad writes Think stocks can’t rise 40% in 2012? Think again.  
    Mark Hulbert: Dow's 'textbook' bear signal (video)  
    Poll: Most Greeks want revamp of bailout terms 
    Euro zone's business confidence slumps  
    Worst is yet to come
    Spain yields push higher
   
German 2-year yields fall to zero
    Europe floats use of permanent fund for banks  
    John Nyardi suggests Three options in uncertain European times 
    Pending home sales off in April 
    Distress is easing for U.S. households (audio)  
    Treasury yields hit record low on Spain worries  
    Euro falls below $1.25  "The U.S. dollar rises toward its strongest level against the euro in almost two years after downgrade of Spanish government debt."
    Are T-bonds sending us a warning? 
    Irwin Kellner tells us that there is No such thing as a free lunch  
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: The Best Way To Play Is  
    Either All News Is Good News, Or...  "After one of the most dismal starts to almost any month on record, the market has certainly perked up a bit since the 18th of May. Although the same can't be said for facebook (FB) or RIMM, the S&P 500 has been higher five of the last six sessions and has tacked on nearly 3% in the process. The 'little bounce that could' has helped to limit some of May's market misery as the S&P is now down just 4.68% on the month. While that hardly seems like good news, let's keep in mind that our furry friends in the bear camp have pretty much ... Read More »
    Pending Home Sales Tank in April  
    China Backs Away From Reports on Major Stimulus   
    NAAIM Index Shows Active Managers Turned Cautious  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Rises Modestly  
    Eurozone Confidence Continues To Decline  
    European Commission Supports Bank Recapitalization and Eurobonds 
      
    Market futures are slightly lower tonight.


2012-5-29: (Tuesday Night): The markets rose today an U.S. stocks gain on Greece, stimulus hopes; Stocks gain as worries about Europe abate. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 33.46 points (1.18%) to end at 2,870.99. The Dow climbed 125.86 points (1.01%) to close at  12,580.69; the S&P 500 declined 14.86 points (1.11%) to settle at 1,332.42. Oil ended the day at 90.75: Oil posts modest retreat as the dollar gains; gold logged off at 1556: Gold loses over $20 as dollar gains on Spain. The VIX slipped 0.59 to 21.17.  
    "Major indexes rise on positive signs from Greece, but euro's drop below $1.25 rattles a few nerves." 
    "U.S. stocks rose Tuesday as investors welcomed a lack of negative headlines out of Europe and hopes that China will move to support its economy. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Canadian bank’s stress-test pro talks Europe  "The head of TD Bank’s stress tests says he doesn’t expect Greece to exit euro but has modeled it. Here's what he's learned."
    China stimulus won't match 2008: report  "Senior Chinese economists say the central government's much-touted stimulus plans will be milder than actions taken at the height of the global financial crisis, according to a state-media report ."
    It's 'a great time to buy stocks'  
    'June gloom' clouds stock market  
    David Marsh: High Noon for the euro 
    Mark Hulbert: Time to bet on euro
    Swiss look past euro (video)
   
Credit Suisse: Greece exit could boost S&P 500
    May data show consumer-confidence slip 
    U.S. home prices flat in March: Case-Shiller 
    Distress is easing for U.S. households (audio)  
    Treasurys gain after Spain downgrade  
    Euro falls below $1.25  "The U.S. dollar rises toward its strongest level against the euro in almost two years after downgrade of Spanish government debt."
    Are T-bonds sending us a warning? 
    Irwin Kellner tells us that there is No such thing as a free lunch  
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market  
    Technical Talk: Bulls Have Regained Possession
    Today's Focus: It's All About Chinese Stimulus  "Although there are problems with Spanish banks today, at least for this morning, the focus of the stock market seems to have shifted from Europe to the hope that the Chinese will begin stimulating their economy in earnest. China's stock market rose again on Tuesday, as the benchmark Shanghai index moved up to a two-week high (the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.2%). The key driver to the action appears to be speculation that the government will take additional stimulative measures ... Read More »
    Consumer Confidence Falls Again In May  
    Case-Shiller Home Price Index Declines Again in March    
      
    Market futures are down ½% tonight.


2012-5-25: (Friday Night): The markets rose today and then slid into the close: U.S. stocks stumble on trouble in Spain; Stocks snap three-week losing streak. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 1.85 points (-0.07%) to end at 2,837.53. The Dow crumpled 74.92 points (-0.60%) to close at  12,454.83; the S&P 500 declined 2.86 points (-0.22%) to settle at 1,317.82. Oil ended the day at 90.70: Oil holds to tenuous gains after consumer data; gold logged off at 1574: Gold ends higher but notches weekly losses. The VIX slipped 0.22 to 21.76.  
    "U.S. stocks fell Friday, but ended higher for the week, as concerns about the debt crisis in Europe weighed on the market ahead of a long weekend. More

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Canadian bank’s stress-test pro talks Europe  "The head of TD Bank’s stress tests says he doesn’t expect Greece to exit euro but has modeled it. Here's what he's learned."
    Michael Gayad warns that Crash risk could turn Spring Switch to Ditch
    CEOs run around Enron rule 
    Businesses go into wait-and-see mode
 
    Investors may be headed toward a ‘fiscal cliff’  
    EU should urge U.S. to avoid 'fiscal cliff 
    S&P downgrades Bankia, Banco Popular to junk  
    It’s more than just a bad bet for Dimo
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Greece and the Swimming Pool Syndrome  "I really don’t wish to offend anyone but I keep having this troubling mental image. No, it is not THAT kind of image… shame on you. It is one related to the Greek situation. I am sitting at a beautiful outdoor waterfront patio dining area with my wife and friends at sunset in the upscale New York beachy Hamptons. Moored at the dock is an absolutely huge, sleek ocean-going yacht, likely worth tens of millions. There is obviously a lively cocktail party going on and we can see what look to be “older” fiftyish and sixtyish men and some quite beautiful young women. Now what the heck does that have to do with Greece? First of all, that image is ... Read More »"
    UofM's Consumer Sentiment Index Highest Since Oct 2007   
      
    The markets are continuing to bob up and down, riding the waves from.Europe.


2012-5-24: (Thursday Night): The markets dove today and then climbed back up, ending about where they started: Street stages a comeback; U.S. stocks end mixed amid Europe worries. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 11.04 points (-0.38%) (almost exactly as much as it rose yesterday) to end at 2,839.38. The Dow jumped 33.6 points (0.27%) to close at  12,529.75; the S&P 500 advanced 1.82 points (0.14%) to settle at 1,357.50. Oil ended the day at 90.96: Oil on rebound, back above $90 a barrel; gold logged off at 1560: Gold rebounds, ends three-day losing streak. The VIX slipped 0.79 to 21.54.  
    "Dow industrials regain positive territory with blue chip Hewlett-Packard rallying after a large-scale
job-cut announcement. Nasdaq finishes in the red, but is off day's worst levels.
"
    "U.S. stocks finished mixed Thursday, as investors reacted to a batch of lackluster U.S. economic data and ongoing concerns about Europe's debt crisis and the risk of Greece exiting the eurozone. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Darrell Delamaide note that Private-equity debate marks silly season.
    Peter Brimelow writes Successful bull stays serene
    Bank profits at highest level since 2007: FDIC
    Debt crisis now taking toll on German economy
    U.S. sells 7-yr debt at 1.203%; bonds stay down  
    Treasury yields move up from near-record lows
    Downside risks key to rate hike  "Short-term interest rates are likely to remain ultra-low until late 2014, Fed's Dudley says."
  
    Requests for jobless benefits fall slightly  
    U.S. mortgage rates little changed last week  
    Spending slump could be trouble  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Will It Be Different This Time? 
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    The Return of the Rumor Rampage
 "So we're back to that. The shoot first, ask questions later, and oh by the way, don't bother me with any details type of market environment, that is. If you will recall, investors were treated to a brutal period of volatility during the last go-round with the Greek crisis that occurred from August through mid-December of 2011. During this nightmare of a market, an environment many professionals called the most difficult they'd seen in 30 years, stocks would soar or plunge based on the latest rumor, comment, or headline from across the pond. Traders didn't bother to check their facts or examine the logic; they simply programmed their computers to ... Read More »"
    Two Outspoken Critics of the Facebook IPO Process  "The Facebook IPO has been an unmitigated disaster on many fronts. But perhaps the most glaring aspect is the fact that individual investor once again got the short end of the stick ... Read More »
    Europe Update: Summit Summary  
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Upticks      
    Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI Reading Falls in May  
    Durable Goods Report Disappointing in April  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Hold Steady  
    Eurozone PMI's (Preliminary) Continue to Pull Back  
    German IFO Sentiment Index Falls Hard in May  
      
    Market futures are 0.1% negative tonight.


2012-5-23: (Wednesday Night): The markets dove today and then climbed back up, ending about where they started: Street stages a comeback; Stocks erase hefty losses. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 11.04 points (0.39%) to end at 2,850.12. The Dow eased another 6.66 points (-0.05%) to close at  12,496.15; the S&P 500 advanced 2.23 points (0.17%) to settle at 1,318.86. Oil ended the day  at 89.90: Oil ends below $90 for first time since October; gold logged off at 1548.40: Gold futures below $1,550 at the close. The VIX slipped 0.15 to 22.33.  
    "Dow recovers from a roughly 200-point drop; Nasdaq and S&P finish with modest gains."
    "After nearly a full day in the red, stocks erased most of their losses in the last half hour of trading Wednesday. More"

     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Nice words for Greece but no euro-bond deal.
    ‘Astonished’ Merkel says no to euro bonds
    Michael Casey: Fear glues Greece to euro
    The New Tigers: complete special report
    Poland, Turkey offer higher risk, more reward
    Michael Gayad explains Why crash risk remains very real  
  
    Lawrence MacMillan says that Stocks are severely undersold  
    Near-perfect indicator says buy now  
    Mark Hulbert writes Insiders help bull market dodge bullet  
    EU leaders want Greece to stay; no eurobond deal  
    Matthew lynn points out that Euro collapse needn’t sink global economy.
    Irwin Kellner writes Better red ink than dead economy    
    Lagarde: liability-sharing needed  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
    Let's Just Stop All The Pretending
. "We need to call a spade a spade here. So many analysts, managers, and pundits come on TV to tell us - with absolute certainty, by the way - (a) what the market is going to do next, (b) what will happen next to the economy, (c) what the Fed will do and when, and (d) what will happen in Europe. However, the bottom line is that nobody can predict any of this stuff because all of the above is intertwined as well as tied to data that we don't have yet and events that haven't occurred yet. So, as investors, we all need to collectively stop pretending we know what is going to happen ... Read More »"
    New Home Sales and Prices Rise in April
    FHFA House Price Index Improves in March  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Pulls Back      
    NAAIM Index Shows Managers Modestly Bullish  
    European Governments Asked to Prepare Contingency Plans for Greek Exit  
    CBO: US to Fall Into Recession if 'Fiscal Cliff' Not Addressed  
    Spain To Ask ECB to Buy Its Bonds  
      
    Market futures are down a few hundredths of a percent tonight.


2012-5-22: (Tuesday Night): The markets yo-yoed up and down today, ending about where they started: Stock market runs ragged; Stocks turn lower on new Greece worries. The NASDAQ Composite closed off 8.13 points (-0.29%) to end at 2,839.08. The Dow eased 1.67 points (-0.01%) to close at  12,502.82; the S&P 500 incremented 0.64 points (0.05%) to settle at 1,316.63. Oil ended the day  at 91.56: Oil below $92 a barrel; gold logged off at 1588: Gold marginally lower amid gains for other metals. The VIX rose 0.47 to 22.48.  
    "Gains evaporate as investors look askance at Europe, but recover most of their losses."
    "U.S. stocks turned sharply lower during the final hour of trading before recovering to end Tuesday relatively flat, as worries over Greece overshadowed upbeat U.S. economic reports. More"

    Last night, I wrote: "What happens after this bounce is what counts." That's still true. Today's action might be followed by a continuation of the decline, but a lot will depend upon the headlines. We're again back in a "risk-off", news-driven trading environment.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Jon Markman observes that Swift European unity could spur epic rally.
    Michael Ashbaugh presents Technical Indicator: Charting corrective bounce 
    Commentary: Loose talk destroying euro zone
    Mark Hulbert on Indicators of a market top "If bull market ended in May, it will have been an unusual demise."
    Paul Farrell: How Facebook threatens U.S. economy
    Insights on taxes and the wealthy  
  
    Stock market is getting cheap  
    Obama spending binge never happened  
    Members of Senate Banking Committee took Wall Street cash  
    SEC, CFTC looking into J.P. Morgan and disclosure rules  
    David Marsh writes: Senators seek Fed board shake-up  "Fallout from J.P. Morgan's trading loss spreads as two lawmakers moved not only to have CEO Jamie Dimon, but all bankers removed from boardrooms of the 12 Federal Reserve regional banks."
    Irwin Kellner writes Better red ink than dead economy    
    Lagarde: liability-sharing needed  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: Sticking To The Script  
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market
  
    Facebook Fallout "Oh, we know you might have had it up to your eyeballs on the non-stop commentary on Facebook’s IPO and the numerous issues which have led to quite a bit of finger-pointing. And you might be “punned out” by all the witty commentary. “Facebook Faceplant” (failure to hold the offering price) “Zuckerberg’s Big Post-IPO Merger” (his marriage) “Facebook’s IPO Not Making Many Friends” (on today’s further price drop, with lows of $31.00 as of this writing and a bit of a bounce but well below the $38 offering) But we don’t think we would be doing our job if we did not point out some of the bigger issues here and also a couple of ... Read More »"
    Man vs. Machine: A Real-Time Example  "Everybody knows that computerized trading accounts for the vast majority of trading on Wall Street these days. However, here is an example of the machines getting it wrong... ... Read More »"
    Existing Home Sales Up 3.4% in April; Prices Up  
    Support for Eurobonds Gaining Momentum But...      
    Spanish Bank Losses Could Hit 260 Billion  
    Revisiting The Correction Playbook  
    OECD Cuts Eurozone Growth Forecast; Supports Eurobonds and Growth Measures  
      
    Market futures are down ½% tonight.


2012-5-21: (Monday Night): It's dead-cat bounce time on Wall Street: Dow snaps losing streak; Nasdaq's best day in 5 mos; ; Stocks rebound on Europe hopes. The NASDAQ Composite leaped a hefty 68.42 points (2.46%) to end at 2,847.21. The Dow sprang up 135.1 points (1.09%) to close at  12,504.48; the S&P 500 hopped 20.77 points (1.50%) to settle at 1,315.99. Oil ended the day  at 91.56: Oil below $92 a barrel; gold logged off at 1588: Gold marginally lower amid gains for other metals. The VIX fell a resounding 3.09 to 22.01.  
    "A plunge in Facebook's stock didn't faze the broader U.S. market Monday. U.S. stocks bounced back from their worst week of the year on renewed optimism that European leaders would find a way out of the sovereign debt crisis. More"
    "Stocks bounce back following Wall Street's worst week of the year. Dow rallies triple digits."

   What happens after this bounce is what counts. Michael Gayed's article (below) explains that, in his view, the next few days will be critical in determining the longer-term course of the market indices. He has been calling for a reflation, leading to a wholesale shift from bonds to stocks with rises that could approximate 40% by year's-end. However, over the past week or two, spreads on bond yields have been rising, along with a renewed search for safety, engendering ever-lower interest rates for U. S. Treasury bonds... ominous signs. If the economic backdrop becomes more reassuring and investors again switch from "risk-off" to "risk-on" mindsets, then his "Spring Switch from bonds to stocks can still take place, with stocks going markedly higher. If not, the stock markets could go markedly lower. He thinks we're at a watershed, foreshadowing a major move one way or the other.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayad says Critical moment is at hand. "My hypothesis that we will see reflation and a surge of capital into stocks is still in play, but the credit issues I pointed out last week may still have a say."
    Why the market top for 2012 may be in
    Expect to see Dow 11,000 before Dow 14,000
    Profit from Europe's coming disaster
    Chuck Jaffe tells us When to let headlines lead your investments.
    A strategic plan for this market  
  
    Euro recovers from lowest since January  
    Banks, drug makers lift European stocks, Spain off  
    Coming Eurobond clash  
    G-8 wants to keep Greece in euro zone  
    David Marsh writes: Pressure mounts on the European Central Bank to save euro  
    Treasurys mostly up; yields near record lows  
    Peter Brimelow notes that Gold bushwhacks bears.  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Technical Talk: A Bounce Is To Be Expected  "After a one-way move such as we've seen over the past three weeks, a bounce - of the dead-cat variety - is to be expected. However, it is what comes next that really counts ... Read More »"
    Isn't It Time For Something Good To Happen?
  "Good morning. With the market now down twelve of the last thirteen sessions, it is fairly obvious that we've got a corrective phase on our hands. Although the S&P is down "just" -7.8% during the current pullback, the fact that this move has been almost completely devoid of any upside makes things feel worse than they actually are. For there is little doubt that anyone still on the long side of the game fears a replay of last August's 17% dive over 17 days or the summer of 2010's correction of -16%. In addition, there appears to be little-to-no hope available to owners of equities ... Read More »"
    The Anatomy of a Correction (How We Dealt and What We Can Learn)  "Option Income Generator manager David W. offers his views on the current correction and how his service has dealt with the big price declines. ... Read More »"
    Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises in April  
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes From The Week That Was      
      
    Market futures are flat tonight..


2012-5-18: (Friday Night): Down we go, with the the S&P 500 breaking through iys support level of 1300 to close at 1295: Longest weekly down streak of 2012 for Dow, S&P; Nasdaq benchmarks slide into technical correction; Stocks: Worst week of the year. The NASDAQ Composite slid another 34.90 points (-1.24%) to end at 2,778.79. The Dow dropped another 78.00 points (-0.63%) to close at  12,335.00; the S&P 500 tumbled another 10.50 points (-0.81%) to settle at 1,295.22. Oil ended the day  at 91.16: Oil below $92 a barrel; gold logged off at 1590: Gold futures bounce higher as dollar weakens. The VIX rose 0.61 to 25.10.  
    "Crude-oil futures end week roughly 5% lower on concerns about global growth and oil demand."
    "Dow and S&P set to suffer losses for a third straight week, which would be their longest weekly losing streak so far this year."

    "Stocks closed out an ugly week. Despite initial euphoria surrounding Facebook's public debut, the social network's shares barely popped above its offering price and failed to inspire investors to buy into the broader market. More."  
    
    I'm happy I'm in cash, and I'm still anticipating the expected extremely-oversold bounce.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayad says Forget Facebook, stocks are at risk.
    Mark Hulbert explains What Dow Theory says about correction. In essence, Dow theory predicts that when the Dow Transportation Index fails to confirm a run-up in the Dow Industrials, the Industrials will correct, followed by a retest of the high, and then a retest of the lows.
    According to Dow theory, there will be a bounce coming up that will approach the recent high (a little above 1400), followed by a retest of whatever low we reach before this predicted bounce. 
    Myra Saefong suggests Don’t give up on oil yet: Commodities Corner
    Cody Willard asks: Are you Ready for water inflation?
    Chuck Jaffe says The mind is a terrible way to trade.
    Greece says Merkel asked for euro referendum  
  
    Obama: G-8 to focus on managing euro zone crisis  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    G-8 Meet in Camp David To Plot Strategy For Euro Crisis  
   
EU, ECB Reportedly Working On Contingency Plans for Greek Exit     Fed May Opt For Another Operation Twist      
      
    As usual, there's practically no news on Friday night.


2012-5-17: (Thursday Night): The markets sank yet again today: The slow-mo stock decline; Stocks end at 4-month lows. The NASDAQ Composite slid another 60.35 points (-2.10%) to end at 2,813.69. The Dow plunged another 161.00 points (-1.28%) to close at  12,442.49; the S&P 500 tumbled another 19.94 points (-1.51%) to settle at 1,304.86. Oil ended the day  at 92.75: Oil notches fifth losing session; gold logged off at 1574: Gold higher on relief rally after 10-month low. The VIX rose 2.22 to 24.49.  
    "A disappointing gauge of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region added to worries about Europe to keep stocks in the red again. J.P. Morgan lower on report losses may be closer to $3 billion."
    "Stocks get further knocked after a disappointing read on manufacturing adds to Europe fears."

    "Investors fled stocks and flocked toward the safety of U.S. Treasuries Thursday as worries about Greece's future in the eurozone continued to escalate. More"   
    The S&P 500, having broken a major resistance level at 1340, is now defenseless down to its next major resistance level at 1300. The sticking points are Europe (Greece and Spain) and suggestions that the U. S. economy may be faltering as Europe enters recession.
    I'm entirely in cash, and anticipating the expected extremely-oversold bounce.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Philly Fed factory index turns negative in May.
    Claims unchanged.
    Leading indicators dip in April
    Mortgage rates fall to record lows with 30-year at 3.79%
    U.S. 10-year yields hit lowest closing level ever  
    Are the bears due for a win?  
    H-P to lay off thousands  "Reports surface that Hewlett-Packard is planning to cut as many as 30,000 jobs."
    Lawrence McMillan: In focus: Oversold, but wounded.  
    Kevin Marder warns that Every bear market starts with a correction.  
    Darrell Delamaide notes that Deficit talk distracts from real issues  
    Michael Ashbaugh points out that the Nasdaq edges under 10-year support  
    Spain clears bond sale, borrowing costs rise  
    Spain's Bankia triggers stock rout in Europe.  
    Spain GDP contracts as austerity hits spending  
    Spain's Bankia: Depositors have nothing to fear  
    Moody's cuts ratings on 16 Spanish banks  
    More ECB unconventional easing may be needed- IMF  
    Banks might need to raise $566 billion: Fitch  
    Peter Brimelow asks Is oil spoiled?  
      
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
   
Why Greece Does and Doesn't Matter "Good morning. Stocks have been down ten of the last eleven sessions. According to Bespoke, the NYSE Advance/Decline line is now at one of the most oversold levels seen since 1990. The talking heads on T.V. told us yesterday that the NASDAQ is now officially in "correction" territory. The S&P has fallen 6.6% since April 2nd. And the global equity markets have reportedly lost $3 trillion in value since the beginning of May. All thanks to Greece - a country whose GDP is barely larger than that of Houston, Texas. If you are anything like me, I'm fairly confident that you are tired of hearing about almost anything related to ... Read More »"         
    Philly Fed Index Surprises With Big Miss in May            
    Leading Economic Indicators Also Miss Expectations 
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Sags  
    Weekly Jobless Claims Hold Steady at Higher Levels    
    JPMorgan Trade Loss Now Exceeds $3 Billion (And Counting)  
    Spanish Bond Auction Sees Yields Continue to Rise      
    Spain Officially In Recession  
    Japanese GDP Above Expectations in Q1  
      
    Market futures are 0.2% higher tonight.


2012-5-16: (Wednesday Night): The markets sank again today on the news coming out of Europe: U.S. stocks lose steam; Dow loses ground; Greece worries weigh on U.S. stocks. The NASDAQ Composite slid another 19.72 points (-0.68%) to end at 2,893.76. The Dow sank another 33.45 points (-0.26%) to close at  12,598.55; the S&P 500 subtracted another 5.86 points (-0.44%) to settle at 1,324.80. Oil ended the day  at 92.79: Oil ends at lowest since November, under $93; gold logged off at 1540: Gold at 10-month low, holds to $1,500 an ounce. The VIX climbed 0.30 to 22.27. "Crude-oil prices keep sliding as energy-market bears feast on a strong dollar, a weak economy, and Saudi assurances on supply (First Take)."
    "Dow industrials suffer 10th loss in past 11 days as U.S. stocks lose grasp of day's gains."
    "Following a positive start, U.S. stocks struggled to hold on to gains Wednesday afternoon, as investors weighed strong U.S. economic data against ongoing uncertainty about Greece's political situation. More"

      
     Permanent Link to Eurodämmerung  What this Paul-Krugman article says is that he and some associates foresee:
"
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing. 
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro."
   
This may possibly explain today's stock market malaise.
    
    Marketwatch says: 
   
Dollar adds to longest rally in two decades.
    
Housing market's most growth in four years.
    Industrial output rebounds
    Wary and watchful at Fed  "Central-bank policy makers not sufficiently confident in recent economic indicators to upgrade their description of the economy, as “several” say more easing could be needed if momentum slows."
    Thomas H. Kee's counsels Avoiding both sides of the bond market  
    Michael Gayed presents The most important question in the world.  
    Mark Hulbert enunciates The real 'Dimon Principle'  
    Dow’s bearish double top takes shape  
    Greece gets worst of worlds with no euro decision  
    Matthew Lynn predicts that Berlin will blink, and keep Greece in euro zone.  
    European Central Bank to continue support for Greek banks  
    Rex Nutting notes that Obama and Romney turn from economy  
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
   
Greece Update: What's Next in the Political Circus and Fears of Bank Runs "It looks like a caretaker government is now the next course of action for Greece. Reports indicate that due to the inability of Greek political party leaders to reach a deal on either a unity or a technical government, the focus today shifts to the formation of a caretaker government. The Greek newspaper Kathimerini stated that if the party leaders fail to agree on a candidate to take over as caretaker prime minister, President Karolos Papoulias will then appoint one. In addition, June 17th still seems to be the most likely date for the next election. The article added that the constitution says that in ... Read More"         
    NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index Shows Active Managers Still Optimistic            
    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Above Expectations in April 
    Housing Starts Perk Up in April  
    Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Rebounds Slightly        
      
    Market futures are up 0.4% tonight.


2012-5-15: (Tuesday Night): The markets sank again today on the news coming out of Europe: Dow nears 4-month low; Stocks slide on Greek woes. The NASDAQ Composite moved down 8.82 points (-0.30%) to end at 2,893.76. The Dow slithered farther south 63.35 points (-0.50%) to close at  12,632; the S&P 500 subtracted another 7.69 points (-0.57%) to settle at 1,330.66. Oil ended the day  at 93.32: Oil futures fall, close below $94 a barrel; gold logged off at 1543: Gold settles at 2012 low as dollar gains on Greece. The VIX climbed 0.10 to 21.97.
    "The chance of an 11th-hour deal for a Greek coalition looks increasingly remote, rattling financial markets across the euro zone."
    "All three U.S. stock indexes ended the day down roughly 1% Monday. Investors sold out of stocks on worries over the political and economic stability of the eurozone and the safety of the U.S. banking sector. More"  
       Permanent Link to Eurodämmerung  What this Paul-Krugman article says is that he and some associates foresee:
"
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing. 
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro."
   
This may possibly explain today's stock market malaise.
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Mick Weinstein writes: Don't try to time this chaotic market.
    The fallacy of dollar-cost averaging.
    Thomas H. Kee Jr.: No money for the market
    Dimon may be ‘stupid’ but he’s right on banks  
    Gates’s $4 billion foray into family planning  
    Darrell Delamaide tells of a Stay of execution for Greece in the offing.  
    Euro-zone GDP  
    EU avoids recession as Germany grows  
    Greek depositors withdraw $898 mln  
    Irwin Kellner observes that there's Good news on the labor front.  
    Inflation's cooling won't move Fed  
      

    State of the Markets articles include:   
   
Tuesday’s Economic Data Mostly in Line, Manufacturing Surprises  "Tuesday's slew of economic data was mostly in line with consensus expectations, though May's Empire Manufacturing figure did surprise to the upside... ... Read More »."  
    JPMorgan Fallout Continues, But The Question is Buy or Sell-  "Anyone tuning into the financial news media over the past few days has been inundated with split commentary on whether or not JPM is a “screaming buy” or a “run from sell” after being severely punished by the market for its $2.3 billion “whale-like” trading loss. We really don’t mean to come up with a recommendation here or rehash all the news flow, but do want to take a brief look at some of the arguments being put forward, both pro and con. First, let’s review the bidding on the stock itself. JPM is generally acknowledged as the major money center “too big to fail” bank which came out of 2008-2009 in the strongest shape possible, led by the strong-willed and talented Mr. Jamie Dimon. ... Read More »"    
    Gross and Hatzius: Investors Should Prepare for QE3 
      
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.


2012-5-14: (Monday Night): The markets sank today on the news coming out of Europe: Fears of Greece euro-zone exit rattle markets; Banks keep pressure on U.S. stocks. The NASDAQ Composite moved down 31.24 points (-1.06%) to end at 2,933.82. The Dow went south 125.25 points (-0.98%) to close at  12,695.35; the S&P 500 tanked 15.04 points (-1.11%) to settle at 1,338.35. Oil ended the day  at 94.09: Oil ends below $95 on Saudi comments, Europe woes; gold ended at 1560: Gold futures at lowest in four months. The VIX climbed 1.98 to 21.76.
    "The chance of an 11th-hour deal for a Greek coalition looks increasingly remote, rattling financial markets across the euro zone."
    "All three U.S. stock indexes ended the day down roughly 1% Monday. Investors sold out of stocks on worries over the political and economic stability of the eurozone and the safety of the U.S. banking sector. More"  
       Permanent Link to Eurodämmerung  What this Paul-Krugman article says is that he and some associates foresee:
"
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing. 
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro."
   
This may possibly explain today's stock market malaise.
    
    Marketwatch says: 

    Michael Gayed writes: Is a 'Summer Crash' coming?  "My stance on stocks has nothing to do with being a bull or a bear. What I think is meaningless. It's what the person I sell to thinks that matters." HI conclusion: a summer crash isn't likely, Rather, there is likely to be a melt-up once defensive money starts spilling out of bonds into high-dividend-yielding stocks.
    Latest EU woes pose threat for U.S
    European bourses feel pressure.
    David Marsh: Hope and trepidation for Hollande
    Treasury 10-year yields at year’s lowest level  
    O'Mahony: Notes on a new economic model  
    Michael Ashbaugh writes: Major Support Cracks?  
    Peter Brimelow brings us: Another summer sag for stocks?  
    China’s economy has yet to bottom  
    China’s easing aimed at housing  

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes From the Week That Was  "The Greek and French elections were so last Sunday ago, but certainly set the tone for a week of high market anxiety, This was further compounded by the Spanish banking situation and some weaker than forecast data out of China, although economic reports out of Europe and the U.S. showed a few bright spots thrown into the mix. JPMorgan’s stunning trading losses put a cap on an interesting trading week, with the market rebounding off sharp “news” premarket lows both on Monday and Friday. However, with the fade into the close on Friday afternoon the SPX ended the week with a -1.1% decline, the Dow ... Read More »"    
    China Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements 
      
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight..


2012-5-11: (Friday Night): Today was the inverse of yesterday. The markets rose sharply, and then ended mixed: Dow stumbles on the week; Stocks end lower as bank shares weigh . The NASDAQ Composite increased 0.18 points (0.01%) to end at 2,933.82. The Dow lost 34.44 points (-0.27%) to close at  12,820.60; the S&P 500 subtracted 4.60 points (-0.34%) to settle at 1,353.39. Oil ended the day  at 95.62: Oil at lowest level of year; gold ended at 1580: Gold ends lower, down roughly 4% on week. The VIX dropped 1.25 to 18.83.
    "Stocks slip as J.P. Morgan's $2 billion loss adds pressure. Blue-chip index loses 1.7% on week."
    "Stocks finished lower Friday, ending a down week for the major indexes, as weakness in the banking sector weighed on the market. More"
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Jon Markman explains Why stocks are down; reasons for a rebound
    Mark Hulbert warns of Bond market madness. Bond yields are unlikely to go lower, and sooner or later, will go higher. Bond prices are at a dangerous, high-risk level.
    Even the smartest can get hit by Wall Street chaos. "David Weidner says system's really out of control when a savvy player like Dimon is humiliated."
    Doug Roberts: Fear likely to beget rebound (audio)  
    Michael Gayad echoes Mark Hulbert's warning: When risk-free turns risky. He's looking for a melt-up in the stock market once money pours out of the bond market into the stock market.

    Spanish bond yields headed higher.  
    Markets punish oil and gold ... for their own good  
    Rex Nutting writes: One less thing to worry about: gasoline prices
    Cheaper gas won't do trick "The minute we learned gas prices had fallen, driving down the producer price index, we knew consumers were happy. But that's not enough to fuel a consumer-led rebound (First Take)."  
    EU: Slow recovery seen in second half   
    China's weaker output |
    April CPI eases.  
    India's industrial output contracts 3.5% in March
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    The "Mooch's" Vegas Floor Show  "Regular viewers of CNBC are likely familiar with frequent “Fast Money” guest Anthony “The Mooch” Scaramucci, one of the principles of Skybridge Capital, a diversified “fund of funds”, advisory service provider, and “research-driven alternative investment fund”. Mr. Scaramucci, a colorful, outspoken, and hardly publicity-shy figure, is one of the drivers behind this week’s SALT conference being held at the Bellagio in Las Vegas and drawing ... Read More »"    
    Inflation in China Holds Steady 
    Import Prices Fall in April, Export Prices Up  
    JPMorgan Chase Sinks On Report of Credit Losses  
    Big Picture Market Models - 5/10/12  
     
    Another week has past, with the markets still stuck in a trading range.


2012-5-9: (Wednesday Night): The markets fell sharply again today and once again partially recovered: Dow set for sixth down day; Dow posts 6-day losing streak. The NASDAQ Composite decreased 11.56 points (-0.39%) to end at 2,934.71. The Dow slipped 96 points (-0.75%) to close at  12,835.29; the S&P 500 fell 9.14 points (-0.67%) to settle at 1,354.58. Oil ended the day  at 96.54: Oil falls on higher dollar, global-recovery fears; gold ended at 1590: Gold below $1,600, lowest since December. The VIX rose 0.83 to 19.88.
    "Stocks tumble on Europe fears, as the Dow's six-session losing streak makes it the longest since August 2011."
    "U.S. stocks bounced back somewhat from a sharp sell-off Wednesday, but all three major indexes closed in the red as investors continue to fret about Greece and Spain. More."
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Mark Hulbert explains Why a major market correction is unlikely
    Europe's pain, America's gain.  
    Michael Gayed explains that Catalyst for higher stocks is no catalyst
. 
    How China is propping up the euro.  
    Public holidays become austerity casualty in Portugal 
    Does Europe have too many holidays? (video)  
    Matthew Lynn notes that Shareholders’ revolt will shift markets
    Tommi Kilgore explains that S&P 500 losses wipe out earnings gains.  
    Paul Farrell suggests 19 solar, wind and biofuel stocks to watch.
  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market  
    Believe It Or Not, It's All About Europe (Again)
    More Questions Than Answers  "The keys to Wednesday’s session are (a) word that the Eurozone is debating the delay of €5.2B to Greece on May 10th due to the political landscape (b) reports that Spain will require its banks to raise more capital and (c) rumors that Credit Immobilier de France is facing "troubles." However, the good news is that European market finished mixed with France down only modestly and Germany up on the session. As for the first concern – that Eurozone and the IMF could delay the next tranche of loans to ... Read More"    
    IMF Talks of Safeguarding Loans to Europe 
    Investor's Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Pulls Back  
    Wholesale Inventories Disappoint in March  
    Spain To Require Banks To Add Capital  
     
    Market futures are mixed tonight.


2012-5-8: (Tuesday Night): The markets fell sharply today and then partially recovered: Dow recovers some losses; Stocks tumble on Greece uncertainty. The NASDAQ Composite decreased 11.49 points (-0.39%) to end at 2,946.27. The Dow slipped 76.44 points (-0.59%) to close at  12,932.09; the S&P 500 fell 5.86 points (-0.43%) to settle at 1,363.72. Oil ended the day  at 96.45: Oil falls below $97, fifth straight down day; gold ended at 1604: Gold ends at lowest level since year's start, Gold drops more than $40 as dollar climbs. The VIX rose a slight 0.05 to 18.99.
    "U.S. stocks trim back their decline as trading session winds down. Blue chips partially recover from a nearly 200-point slide earlier in the day. Uncertainty about the Greek election pressures Wall Street."
    "U.S. stocks sank Tuesday, although the major indexes closed off session lows, as Greece's uncertain political situation keeps investors on edge. More"  
    
    Marketwatch says: 
    Kevin Marder says The market pullback is a welcome sight
    The continued deterioration of the market  
    Europe, U.S. all out of monetary tricks 
    Thomas Kee says Slowing economies demand risk control.  
    Bush tax cuts and Europe 
    Dudley: Fed won't cause inflation  
    Irwin Kellner: What, me worry about inflation?  
    U.S. sells 3-year debt at lowest yield in 3 months  
    NFIB small-business index at post-recession high
     March job openings increase to 3.74 million  
     U.S. home prices post gain 
     The debate about austerity is over 
     Michael Ashbaugh is Charting a bearish backdrop.  
     David Weidner admonishes us to Buy America, sell Europe.  

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Wednesday's Market
    More Questions Than Answers  "Greetings from Kilkenney, Ireland. For me at least, the weekend elections, as well as yesterday's market action, raise more questions than answers. While the bulls will argue that yesterday's impressive rebound in the U.S. indices means that the buyers are resilient at the present time and that we've seen the lows for this corrective phase, frankly I'm not so sure this is the case. Believe me, as a card-carrying member of The-Glass-is-Always-at-Least-Half-Full club, it pains me to say this. But as the saying goes, one day does not a trend make (or change). So, unless the bulls can put in a carbon copy of yesterday's ... Read More »"    
    Why Does The World Really Care About Greece Again? "It seems that the stock market is all about Greece today (yes, again). With the elections leaving the debt-riddled country with no clear leadership, the question of Eurozone stability is back on the ... Read More »
    Market Mover: Greece's Leading Parties Fail to Form Gov't  
    NFIB Small Business Optimism Improves in April  
    German Industrial Production Improves  
     
    Market futures are slightly lower tonight.


2012-5-7: (Monday Night): The markets caught their breath today, closing nearly flat: U.S. blue chips lose on election unease; European Turnaround Keeps US Market Afloat. The NASDAQ Composite eased up 1.42 points (0.05%) to end at 2,957.76. The Dow slipped 29.74 points (-0.23%) to close at  13,008.53; the S&P 500 tiptoed up 0.48 points (0.04%) to settle at 1,369.58. Oil ended the day  at 97.92: Oil ends at three-month low on Europe fears; gold ended at 1639: Gold ends lower on European elections. The VIX slid 0.19 to 18.97.
    "U.S. stocks fight to erase losses suffered early Monday after rejection by voters in Greece and France of pro-austerity candidates."
    "
May 07 4:11pm: U.S. stocks recovered Monday afternoon from modest losses earlier in the day, as investors considered the implications of leadership changes in France and Greece. More"
    I warned last night that the market indices were down more than 1%, and that the markets could go into free-fall today, and it continued to look that way early this morning. But then, a sudden, dramatic reversal took place in the European bourses, and the U. S. markets followed suit.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Greece ‘worst case’ outcome sparks turmoil  "Outcome of voting potentially raises doubts over Greece's capacity to remain in the euro zone."
    Greece rejects mainstream parties (video)
    David Marsh: Fateful choice for France 
    French voters reject Sarkozy and austerity (video)  
    Hollande ousts Sarkozy in French vote  
    Message sent to Germany and Merkel  
    Michael Gayed writes Where is Spain's 'V' recovery? "Problems in Spain continue as Spanish stocks fall rolls on. But is it possible that they're falling so quickly that we may see a rebound soon?"
     Avri Gilburt asks: Has the market topped for 2012?  
    Darrell Delamaide offers A warning, not an ultimatum, to Merkel

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    When Losing a Little (Very Little) is a Good Thing  "After a straight-up joyride to the upside during the first three months of the year, the market has suddenly become very difficult again. Here's one way to succeed in this environment... ... Read More »"    
    Looking Ahead to Tuesday's Market  
     
    Market futures are very slightly positive tonight.


2012-5-4: (Friday Night): The markets crashed and burned today: Street's worst week of year; Disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls Sends Stocks Lower. The NASDAQ Composite plunged 67.96 points (-2.25%) to end at 2,956.34. The Dow dropped 168.32 points (-1.27%) to close at  13,038.27; the S&P 500 collapsed 22.47 points (-2.25%) to settle at 1,369.10. Oil ended the day  at 98.59: Oil slides to 12-week low; gold ended at 1642: Gold ends higher, snaps losing streak. The VIX jumped 1.6 to 19.16.
    "Stocks were sent reeling Friday morning after a weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report for the month of April... ... Read More »"
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Charting the latest jobs and employment data
    Charles Sizemore asks What is the big money saying?
    Howard Gold says: Oil and gas prices look like they’ve peaked
    Rex Nutting notes that Government spending is holding us back  
   Mark Hulbert writes about The gold market’s steep wall of worry.  
    The Bear Paradox and the negative narrative  
    Treasury 10-year yields fall under 1.90% 

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Falling Over The Fiscal Cliff?  "Move over Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. Watch out Thelma and Louise. That cliff has our collective names written all over it and you better make way. Or at least that is what the chorus in the media, throughout Washington, at universities, in think tanks, and all over the Street is telling us. We reported in the last weekend’s recap that “Factiva news search said hits on the phrase 'fiscal cliff’ quintupled in the last month.” As we hear the rhetoric increasingly heating up on this so-called “fiscal cliff”, we thought we might as well all get on the ... Read More »"
    Eurozone Services PMI Confirm Economic Weakness    
     
    This has certainly been a "down" week, as market indices have broken below their trend channels and support levels.
    As usual, there's not much news on a Friday night.


2012-5-3: (Thursday Night): The markets closed down today: U.S. stocks feel tugs of jobs data and Europe fear; Stocks stumble ahead of April jobs report . The NASDAQ Composite plummetted 35.55 points (-1.16%) to end at 3,024.30. The Dow dropped 61.98 points (-0.47%) to close at  13,206.59; the S&P 500 collapsed 10.74 points (-0.77%) to settle at 1,391.57. Oil ended the day  at 102.54: Oil slides 2.6% to lowest level in nearly 2 weeks; gold ended at 1636: Gold ends $1,640 after U.S. jobs, services data. The VIX dropped 0.68 to 17.56.
    "Weak reading on private-sector employment casts doubt on the strength of Friday's payrolls report.."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    U.S. jobless claims drop.  "Week's applications for jobless benefits see first drop in a month, to just slightly above a four-year low."
    Planned job cuts up
    Kathleen Madigan: Don’t be fooled by ADP
    U.S. productivity drops 0.5% in first quarter  
    Expect stagnant U.S. economy in 2013: Roubini.  
    U.S. stocks' early gains hit by Europe worries  
    Kevin Marder writes Momentum returns 
    Stocks have outgrown economy  
    Draghi: Economic outlook subject to downside risks "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says outlook remains subject to downside risks, tied in part to sovereign-debt tensions."
    Thirty-year mortgage rate at record-low 3.84%   
    Cody Willard writes about his Bluefly Bubble Indicator. He also tells us what • What Web 1.0 stocks tell us about 2.0

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Looking Ahead to Friday's Market  
    Roubini: The New List of Macro Concerns  "In September 2006, Nouriel Roubini – aka Dr. Doom – a warned a wary IMF that the U.S. was likely to face a big-time housing bubble bust, an oil shock, and decreased consumer confidence. Essentially, Roubini warned of a deep recession in the U.S., which came to pass. As such, whenever Roubini has spoken since then, people listen. Although Roubini recently turned positive on U.S. stocks (for a short-term trade, which, by the way, wasn't a bad call), the notoriously negative economist is back with a new list ... Read More »"    
    Thursday's Economic Data Mostly Disappoints
     
    Stock market futures are flat again tonight.


2012-5-2: (Wednesday Night): The markets closed mixed: Jobs data pressure Street; Dow closes at a 4-year high. The NASDAQ Composite rose 9.41 points (0.31%) to end at 3,059.85. The Dow dropped 10.75 points (-0.08%) to close at  13,268.57; the S&P 500 re-inflated 3.51 points (-0.25%) to settle at 1,402.31. Oil ended the day  at 105.33: Stocks, oil, bond yields give a little back; gold ended at 1654: Gold extends losses after weak jobs report. The VIX dropped 0.28 to 16.88.
    "Weak reading on private-sector employment casts doubt on the strength of Friday's payrolls report.."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Matthew Lynn warns that Time is running out to rescue Spain.
    Are we on the way to Dow 14K (audio?
    Mark Hulbert tells us about May doesn’t have to be bad for stocks
    Irwin Kellner says: Warning: Fiscal icebergs ahead  
    U.S. 10-year yields touch 3-month low.  
    Private-sector job growth slows to 119,000 in April  "Restrained private-sector payroll gain is led by service sector and small and midsize businesses."

  
    State of the Markets articles include:   
    Is "Better-Than-Expected" About To Make a Comeback?  "Good Morning. The recent correction in the stock market has been attributed largely to returning concerns about the state of the European sovereign debt crisis as well as a general softening of the economic data here in the U.S. While just about every report to hit the tape in the first quarter was better than expected, since then, it appears that the economic momentum has begun to fade. And in short, this put a fairly large dent in the BTE theme. As a result, some of the exuberance was removed from stock prices. To be sure, many analysts and managers had been caught off guard by the BTE phase, which ... Read More »"    
    Goldman Sachs Sending Mixed Signals (Again)  "As usual, the spokesmen and women for Goldman Sachs have been making headlines recently with their market calls. However the views being expressed in public seem to be conflicting... ... Read More »"
    ADP Employment Underwhelms, Factory Orders Fall  "ADP reported that the private sector job market expanded in the month of April, though the figure came in well below consensus expectations... ... Read More »"
    Looking Ahead to Thursday's Market       
    European PMI's Show Economies Continue to Struggle  
    HSBC's China PMI Manufacturing Index Improves 
    
    Stock market futures are flat tonight.


2012-5-1: (Tuesday Night): All three indices snapped back today: Dow ends at highest level since late 2007; Dow closes at a 4-year high. The NASDAQ Composite rose 4.08 points (0.13%) to end at 3,050.44. The Dow gained 65.69 points (0.5%) to close at  13,279.32; the S&P 500 re-inflated 7.91 points (0.57%) to settle at 1,405.82. Oil ended the day  at 105.80: Price of oil hits five-week high; gold ended at 1663: Gold edges lower; copper leads gains. The VIX dropped 0.55 to 16.60.
    "U.S. stocks rise after report shows manufacturing expanded at a more rapid pace for April."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Jon Markman tells us about 3 reasons May will sting
    Irwin Kellner's cautionary tale: Warning: Fiscal icebergs ahead
    Mark Hulbert tells us about The VIX in presidential election years  "Standard & Poor’s downgrade of big banks ups pressure on the government to deal with the financial sector as economy slips into recession."
    David Weidner asks What would Jesus trade?  
    Lawrence McMillen opines: The technicals are bullish.  
    Tomi Kilgore advises:
Another weak May? Don’t be so sure
    Michael Ashbaugh asks: Sell in May, or stay?          
    5 stocks picked by billionaires
    May as bear season  
    Kevin Marder proclaims: The market is mending.  
    The Aden sisters say The Fed will provide.     

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    ISM Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside  "GThe all-important ISM Manufacturing Index provides a look at the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. This month's report shows the sector continued to expand for the 33rd straight month... ... Read More »"    
    Ready, Set, Sell?  "Good Morning. My digital calendar informed me this morning that the month of May has officially arrived. And according to Wall Street's folklore, this means that it may be time to do something other than invest in the stock market for a while. But to be honest, I've never put much credence in the old saw, "Sell in May and go away" as stocks have only fallen during the May-October period 11 of the 32 years I've been in this business. But, I will have to admit that it's been a profitable strategy of late and as such, I thought I'd dig into the data to see whether I should just extend my stay in Europe until after Halloween. The theory holds that stocks tend to do very little from ... Read More »"
    Construction Spending in U.S. Up Slightly in March       
    UK Manufacturing PMI Above 50 But Below Expectations  
    China's Official PMI Expands for Fifth Straight Month 
    Are The Bullish Analysts Talking Their Books or Talking Sense?  
    
    Stock market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-4-30: (Monday Night): All three indices fell a bit today: Stocks limping to April end; Stocks finish worst month of the year. The NASDAQ Composite fell the most at 22.84 points (-0.74%) to end at 3,046.36. The Dow retreated 14.63 points (-0.11%) to close at  13,213.63; the S&P 500 deflated 5.45 points (-0.39%) to settle at 1,397.91. Oil ends the day essentially unchanged at 104.78: Oil inches lower after four-day run; gold ended at 1667: Gold edges slightly lower for session, month. The VIX climbed t 0.83 to 17.15.
    "U.S. stocks fall, with the benchmark indexes positioned for monthly declines, after a soft reading on business activity in the Chicago area. Spain's return to recession fuels latest euro-zone worries."
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Consumers cool it in March.
    Gunderson: Correction risk past
    S&P bank move and data pile pressure on Spain  "Standard & Poor’s downgrade of big banks ups pressure on the government to deal with the financial sector as economy slips into recession."
    EU reportedly readies 'Marshall Plan for Europe'.  
    Euro-zone inflation pace slows to 2.6% in April.  
   
Retail sales don't bode well for Germany's GDP
    Brent March points out that U.K. shows euro isn’t vital to trade.        
    Craig Stephens explains Beijing’s secret: It’s not really loosening.  
    Stocks will be OK in May
    Treasury yields touch two-month lows  
    Peter Brimelow reviews an investment advisor who's Bullish on energy — and China  
    Earnings season is a so-far-so-good story (audio)  
    Will weak jobs lead to more easing?   

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    The Correction May Be Over, But...  "Good Morning. Five days ago, the bears seemed to have everything going their way. After one of the best first quarter performances in years, the stock market was overbought, sentiment had become too upbeat (or at the very least, traders had become more than a little complacent), and hedge fund managers were falling all over themselves trying to play catch up with their benchmarks (aka the S&P 500). Thus, as I wrote on March 28th, it was time to prepare for some sort of a correction, pullback, or sloppy period. ... Read More »"    
    Chicago PMI Pulls Back in April
    Personal Income and Spending Rise in March       
    S&P Cuts Ratings of 16 Spanish Banks  
    Spain's Economy Dips Back Into Recession 
    Earnings Season Update: Q1 Results A Positive So Far  
    Quotable Quotes and Notable Notes  
    
    Stock market futures are slightly higher tonight.


2012-4-27: (Friday Night): All three indices closed up yet again today: S&P ends back above 1,400; Stocks close out a strong week. The NASDAQ Composite exploded 18.58 points (0.61%) to end at 3,069.20. The Dow advanced 23.69 points (0.18%) to close at  13,228.31; the S&P 500 popped 3.38 points (0.24%) to settle at 1,403.36. Oil rose to 104.79:Oil rises near 4-week high; gold ended at 1663: Gold market takes big cues from the Fed. The VIX eased up 0.08 to 16.32.
    "Stocks close higher as better-than-expected results from Amazon and Ford fuel gains. Nasdaq also rallies 2.3% for the week, with gains stoked by strong quarterly earnings.
    "Crude climbs back near $105 a barrel, extending its winning run into a fourth straight day."
  
    The bottom line: The markets have pushed above their recent levels, but have resistance to overcome... e. g., 1420 on the S&P... before they can be said to have broken out of their trading ranges and ended this correction.
     
    Marketwatch says: 
    Michael Gayed says: Look for surge in China stocks.
    Long-term gold view still bullish
    Rex Nutting writes: Fear of inflation keeps Fed from doing its job  
    Mark Hulbert tells us What market must do to avoid sell signal.  
    Howard Gold warns that Dumb money flocks to emerging markets.  
   
Michael Ashbaugh observes that the S&P 500 stages lukewarm breakout.
&nbs