Daily Investment Interpretations

Daily Investment Interpretations Archive

January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2010

Investment Archive, July 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009
January 1, 2009, to June 30, 2009
July 1, 2008, to December 31, 2008
May 7, 2008, to June 30, 2008

2010-3-12: The markets marked time today, going nowhere. The NASDAQ Composite shrank 0.8 points, (-0.03%) to close at 2,367.66, , the Dow moved up ascended 12.85 points (0.12%) to close at 10,624.69, and the S&P 500 subtracted 0.25 points (-0.02%)) to close at 1,149.99. Oil closed up at $81.24 a barrel. Gold slipped slightly to $1,107. The VIX was down 0.48 to 17.58.
    It would appear that the market is near the tops of its current mini-cycle. It will probably have little farther to run, and will then pull back again to regroup. This isn't a good time to buy, and it could be a good time to sell if you wanted to play these waves. My investment advisory service is looking for a modest 2%-3%, 3-or-4-day pullback within the present multi-week mini-cycle. They would be buyers on such a dip.
    Here are a few articles: Beating the China policy sell-off, Jobless claims down, Looming collapse in Greece just a myth, Some gold timers blame market for fall.
    Another article, This is the right time for stocks, argues that the breakout patterns for many stocks, coupled with the fact that the broad market is still outpacing the Dow, is indicative of a market that is going higher for at least the next six months.

2010-3-11: The S&P 500 caught up with the NASDAQ Composite by making a new high for this year (by 0.01 points). The NASDAQ Composite gained 9.51 points, (0.4%) to close at 2,368.46, which is yet another new high after its 3/9/2009 low, the Dow moved up 44.51 points (0.42%) to close at 10,611.84, and the S&P 500 added 4.63 points (0.4%) to close at 1,150.24. Oil closed up at $82.18 a barrel. Gold was unchanged at $1,108. The VIX was down 0.51 to 18.51.
    It would appear that the market is near the tops of its current mini-cycle. It will probably have little farther to run, and will then pull back again to regroup. This isn't a good time to buy, and it could be a good time to sell if you wanted to play these waves.
    Here are a few articles: Beating the China policy sell-off, Jobless claims down, Looming collapse in Greece just a myth, Some gold timers blame market for fall.

2010-3-10: The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were up yet again today. The NASDAQ Composite gained 18.27 points, (0.78%) to close at 2,358.95, which is yet another new high after its 3/9/2009 low, the Dow rose a measly 2.95 points (0.03%) to close at 10,567.33, and the S&P 500 acquired 5.16 points (0.45%) to close at 1,145.61. Oil closed up at $81.97 a barrel. Gold dropped to $1,108. The VIX was up (a good sign) 0.65 to 18.57.
    Mark Hulbert asks the rhetorical question: Which letters called the market bottom?
  Todd Harrison has just delivered these thtree articles, The witch hunt widens on Wall Street, Random Thoughts: Crisis Averted!,and This is an interesting article regarding the VIX-S&P relationship.
   Here are two articles about 3D TV, Best Buy takes 3-D lead, and Digits: The push for 3-D TV., and here are two articles about electric cars: The future is now, and • China's BYD may build in California.
    Stock market futures are down tonight, seemingly in response to unpleasant inflation news out of China.

2010-3-9: The markets closed up modestly today. The NASDAQ Composite gained 8.47 points, (0.36%) to close at 2,340.68, which is another new high after its 3/9/2009 low, the Dow regained 11.86 points (11.86%) to close at 10,564.38, and the S&P 500 added 1.95 points (0.17%) to close at 1,140.45. Oil closed up at $81.55 a barrel. Gold dropped to $1,122. The VIX was up (a good sign) 0.13 to 17.92.
Among the articles today are Michael Ashnaugh's Banks face exam: Ashbaugh, Mark Hulbert: What not to learn, Paul Farrell's The rise and certain fall of the American Empire, and David Weidner's Populist politics not Wall Street's cup of tea.
Futures are neutral tonight.

2010-3-8: The markets closed flat for the day. The NASDAQ Composite was up 5.86 points, (0.25%) to close at 2,332.21, which is a new high after its 3/9/2009 low, the Dow fell 13.68 points (-0.13%) to close at 10,552.52, and the S&P 500 retrenched 0.2 points (-0.02%) to close at 1,138.50. Oil closed up at $81.75 a barrel. Gold dropped to $1,125. The VIX was up (a good sign) 0.37 to 17.79.
    In the commodities arena: Why the crystal ball is clouded.
    This article, Playing Year 2 of the bull market, notes that the second year of a bull market generally echoes the first. "Since 1949, Stovall said, small-caps have returned 22% on average in the second year of a rally, while large-caps rose 15%. Year Two's best sectors have been cyclical plays: consumer discretionary, financials, technology, and industrials." The article observes that the average lifespan for a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market (like the 1966-1982 super-bear market) is 17 months. (Seventeen months from March, 2009, will arrive in August, 2010.) The article also mentions that some emerging markets (China? Brazil?) are in secular bull markets. My investment advisory service warns that earnings are being overstated, and, given that we're in a secular (2000 - 2016?) secular bear market, we'll experience lower lows before the next secular bull market begins, but for now, the sort-term and intermediate-term trends are up.
    Arends: GE has been a disaster under Jeff Immelt
    Chuck Jaffe: Beware of numbers games Mr. Jaffe is warning about mutual fund managers claiming great annual gains for their mutual funds without mentioning that longer-term, they're down.
    Don't follow the fad, say Callaway and Hulbert (video)

2010-3-5: The markets roared today on truly good news. The February jobs report, Unemployment's in check, 'Job data signal economy turning corner (video)', The job-market and consumer news is good, and bad, while still showing a decline of 36,000 jobs (perhaps because of bad weather), fell less than expected, and continued the string of muted job losses that characterized the latter half of 2009 (see the chart below). Meanwhile, total unemployment remained steady at 9.7%. Next month's unemployment number may swing back above the line.
    Also, the (China) Halter Index rose back above both its 50-day and its 25-day moving averages.

    The NASDAQ Composite charged up 34.04 points, (1.48%) to close at 2,326.35, the Dow racked up 122.06 points (1.17%) to close at 10,566.20, and the S&P 500 ran up 15.73 points (1.4%) to close at 1,138.70. Oil closed up at $81.50 a barrel. Gold rose to $1,138. The VIX fell 1.3 to 17.42.
    The NASDAQ hit a new 2009-2010 high today, whereas the Dow and the S&P did not. Curiously, the markets advanced today even though the dollar also rose: Dollar up.
    If the market indices fail to register new highs within the next week or two, it will suggest an intermediate market top in which the indices approach but don't quite reach their previous highs, and gradually work their way lower. But if the indices manage to move a little higher, my advisory inputs have been suggesting rising markets through April or May, followed by a possible second leg of the recession. It will all depend upon whether the world's economies have been sufficiently stimulated to "re-prime the pumps", so that consumer demand can take up the slack left by the declining stimulus packages.
    Mark Hulbert is warning that, now that it appears the economy is recovering, Advisory bullishness nears too-high levels. Generally, about the time professional investment managers quit lying awake nights worrying about a bear market, it's time for the next bear market to begin.
    Here's an article on Warren Buffett's prowess: Blown out by Warren Buffett, and here are some alternative energy articles: T. Boone Pickens' slimmer wind plan, Renewable energy faces opposition (video), ECO-nomics: Craig Venter on Making Synthetic Fuel (video), Doerr waiting for energy's 'Netscape moment', and The future of the electric car market.

2010-3-4: The markets advanced today. The NASDAQ Composite ended up at 11.63 points, (0.51%) to close at 2,292.31, the Dow added 47.38 points (0.46%) to close at 10,444.14, and the S&P 500 climbed 4.18 points (0.37%) to close at 1,122.97. Oil closed up at $80.62 a barrel. Gold slipped to $1,134. The VIX fell 0.11 to 18.72.
The news? U.S. jobless claims fall, halting run of advances, Productivity picks up pace, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage back below 5%, and U.S. factory orders rise 1.7% in January. Of course, the news wasn't all peaches and cream. There was also Monster's online employment index on the rise, and Pending home sales fall 7.6% in January.
Stock market futures are slightly positive tonight. Meanwhile, the China Halter Index has turned up, and the China and Emerging Markets Report recommends buying back into Chinese stocks.

2010-3-3: The markets headed up today, but fell back after a speech on the new health care bill by President Obama. The NASDAQ Composite closed down a sliver at 0.11 points, (0.00%) to close at 2,280.68, the Dow tumbled 9.22 points (-0.09%) to close at 10,396.76, and the S&P 500 crawled up 0.48 points (0.04%) to close at 1,118.79. Oil closed up at $80.93 a barrel. Gold surged again, ending the day at $1,144. The VIX fell 0.23 to 18.83.
    Health care stocks fell today following the President's speech... which made it a good day to buy stocks. Although the weather may have skewed February's jobs reports, the pace of job losses is slowing. One advisor notes that last year's Market tailwinds are dead.
    Mark Hulbert has written about Active vs. passive investments, while Dogs of the Dow teach investors new tricks.
    Stock market futures are down slightly tonight.

2010-3-2: It's "Turnaround Tuesday", and the markets have all but done that. The NASDAQ Composite laid on 7.22 points, (0.32%) to close at 2,280.79, the Dow squeaked up 2.19 points (0.76%) to close at 10,405.98, and the S&P 500 crawled up 2.6 points (0.23%) to close at 1,118.31. Oil closed at $79.74 a barrel. Gold surged, ending the day at $1,137. The VIX fell 0.19 to 19.07.
Michael Ashbaugh notes that the indices have punched through their resistance levels (their 50-day moving averages): U.S. markets edge above significant resistance.
Stock market futures are flat tonight. Other than that, there isn't much news.

2010-3-1: Today saw higher market indices across the board: Street starts March strong; ; Spending rises; and Manufacturing expanding. The NASDAQ Composite pole-vaulteded 35.31 points, (1.58%) to close at 2,273.57, the Dow improved 78.53 points (0.76%) to close at 10,403.79, and the S&P 500 swelled 11.22 points (1.02%) to close at 1,115.71. Oil closed at $78,75 a barrel. Gold was essentially unchanged, ending the day at $1,118. The VIX fell 0.24 to 19.26.
    My investment advisory service advised that if the markets closed up as high tonight as they were this morning, they stand a good chance of revisiting their January highs. That would amount to 1,150 for the S&P 500, 2,320 for the NASDAQ, and 10,700 for the Dow.
    The indices aren't awfully far away from there. The NASDAQ is about 2% below its January high, and the Dow and the S&P 500 are still off about 3%.
    As the title implies, the heavy February snowstorms that swept the nation were responsible for declines in days worked (as well as, no doubt, other productivity deficiencies): Data set to reveal a job market clouded by storms in February
    Peter Brimelow and Edwin Rubenstein write: Parsing 200 years of gold trades This article notes that gold, after 175 years of fluctuating between $0.75 and $1.50, is currently trading at 3.26 times its inflation adjusted 1801 price.... i. e., its odds of falling are much greater than its odds of rising.
    Market static signals (video) "Once-clear leading economic indicators such as the Treasury yield curve are now widely disputed. But what growth trend is priced into stocks?"

2010-2-28: My investment advisory services consider last week's bullish response to Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony to Congress to suggest a compelling short-term bullish signal. They're recommending accumulation upon weakness.
Stock market futures are up about 0.45% tonight.

2010-2-26: The markets managed to post slight gains today. The NASDAQ Composite annexed 4.04 points, (0.18%) to close at 2,238.26, the Dow tiptoed up 4.23 points (0.04%) to close at 10,325.26, and the S&P 500 ended up 1.55 points (0.14%) to close at 1,104.49. Oil closed at $79.66 a barrel. Gold gained $10, ending the day at $1,119. The VIX fell 0.6 to 19.50.
Mark Hulbert writes that stocks are Neither overvalued nor undervalued.
Morgan Stanley CEO Jamie Dimon discusses the Odds of a double dip, with the tmplication that the odds have risen.

2010-2-25 The markets have resisted well the thorny economic news that greeted investors this morning. The NASDAQ Composite bled 1.68 points, (-0.08%) to close at 2,234.22, the Dow sank 53.13 points (-0.51%) to close at 10,321.03, and the S&P 500 split the difference at 2.3 points (-0.21%) to close at 1,102.94. Oil closed at $78.17 a barrel. Gold gained $11, ending the day at $1,108. The VIX fell 0.17 to 20.10.
Stock market futures are up a little tonight.

2010-2-25 (Mid-Morning): Given the worrisome character of today's opening, it might be worth mentioning that my leading investment advisory service estimates that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's reassurance that no rate hikes are in the offing is trumping poor economic news. Mark Hulbert adds to this optimism by observing that consumer confidence tends to bottom out shortly after an economic turnaround is underway: Darkness before dawn. Stocks faced more bad news this morning: U.S. stocks dig selves hole.

2010-2-24: The markets rebounded today. The NASDAQ Composite gained 22.46 points, (1.01%) to close at 2,235.90, the Dow rose 91.75 points (0.85%) to close at 10,374.16, and the S&P 500 added 10.64 points (0.97%) to close at 1,105.24. Oil closed at $80.00 a barrel. Gold dropped $6, ending the day at $1,097. The VIX rose 1.1 to 20.27.
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has testified before Congress that the U. S. economy is not yet in a sustainable, private-sector recovery: 'Economy can't go it alone, Bernanke comforts market.
    More bad news assailed investors today: New-home-sales nadir, Trouble ahead for banks, and Doubts hang over recovery.
    Irwin Kellner is warning of impending inflation (Inflation is faster than it looks), and Paul Krugman has cited him as someone who's gone around the bend: Permanent Link to A Hawk For All Seasons. (A few items such as chicken have risen in price, while other staples have fallen in price. With massive unemployment and a stimulus package that's beginning to decline, Dr. Krugman sees deflation as a greater imminent threat than inflation.)
    David Weidner's insights into Goldman Sachs are chronicled here: Goldman's gatekeeper.
    Another thought-provoking article: Insurers' power growing into monopolies. What's meaningful about these articles to me is the fact that they're emanating from conservative Wall Street news organs.
    My investment advisory newsletters have been advising that the markets are poised to break either up or down from here.

2010-2-23: The markets declined markedly today. The NASDAQ Composite fell a resounding 28.59 points, (-1.28%) to close at 2,213.44, the Dow backed off 100.97 points (-0.97%) to close at 10,282.41, and the S&P 500 closed down 13.41 points (-1.21%) to close at 1,094.60. Oil fell to $8.82 a barrel, closing at $80.05 a barrel. Gold dropped $10, ending the day at $1,103. The VIX rose 1.43 to 21.37.
    The markets fell the way they did today because consumer sentiment unexpectedly plummeted today: Consumers recoil. Other bad news didn't help, either: King's ransom, 'Troubled bank' list grows, and Mixed view of home prices.
    The only good news lay in Michael Ashbaugh's regular Tuesday technical assessment: Small caps back bullish case, Ashbaugh says.
    My investment advisory service still considers this to be a buying opportunity.
    Stock market futures are off slightly tonight.

2010-2-22: The markets fell back slightly today. The NASDAQ Composite fell a paltrey 1.84 points, (-1.84%) to close at 2,242.03, the Dow backed off 18.97 points (-0.18%) to close at 10,383.38, and the S&P 500 closed down 1.16 points (-0.1%) to close at 1,108.01 Oil surmounted $80 a barrel, closing at $80.05 a barrel. Gold dropped $9, ending the day at $1,113. The VIX fell 0.08 to 19.94.
    My advisory service observes that the bulls pssed an acid test on Friday when they failed to crumple in the face of bad news. They may fall back a little today, but their general direction is up.
    Paul Farrell writes:Death of U.S. capitalism: The final 10 scenes.
    Paul Krugman is warning of the threat of renewed deflation as the stimulus runs out: Permanent Link to Inflation Perceptions, and Permanent Link to Is the Fed Getting Ready to Tighten?.

2010-2-19: The markets rose yet another day, penetrating their resistance zones. Although the Fed announced that it is raising the discount rate by ¼ %, and although Dell reported disappointing earnings, the markets managed to squeeze out small gains again today. The NASDAQ Composite inched up 2.16 points, (0.1%) to close at 2,243.87, the Dow gained 9.45 points (0.09%) to close at 10,402.35, and the S&P 500 closed up 2.42 points (0.22%) to close at 1,109.17. Oil approached $80 a barrel, closing at $79.90 a barrel. Gold added $3, ending the day at $1,122. The VIX fell 0.57 to 20.06.
    I guess the best you can say about today's price action is that it could have been worse.
    Mark Hulbert writes: Parsing reaction to Fed's surprise move.
    Premium shocker: 69% increase

2010-2-18: The markets rose again today, fetching up against the overhead resistance that Michael Ashbaugh described on Tuesday.
    The markets rose modestly today. The NASDAQ Composite tacked on 15.42 points, (0.69%) to close at 2,241.71, the Dow added 83.66 points (0.81%) to close at 10,392.40, and the S&P 500 advanced 7.24 points (0.66%) to close at 1,106.75. Oil moved down to $78.39 a barrel. Gold was unchanged at $1,119. The VIX fell 1.09 to 20.63.
    The markets fell today when a plane crashed into the side of an office building in Austin, TX, on rumors that this was a terrorist act. In fact, it was one individual objecting to capitalistic greed and federal spending ("A pox on both your houses!")
    The U. S. Federal Reserve hiked its discount rate today from 0.5% to 0.75% in an effort to get banks to start loaning money again: Fed hikes discount rate. This has led to a "jump" in the dollar tonight, and to a sharp drop in stock market futures.
    I bought back into a couple of mutual funds today (just in time for tomorrow's pullback).

2010-2-17: The markets rose modestly today. The NASDAQ Composite tacked on 12.1 points, (0.55%) to close at 2,226.29, the Dow added 40.43 points (0.39%) to close at 10,309.24, and the S&P 500 advanced 4.64 points (0.42%) to close at 1,099.51. Oil moved down to $76.82 a barrel. Gold was unchanged at $1,120. The VIX fell 0.48 to 22.25.
For clues to today's rises, consider Earnings, data boost stocks and Insider stock buying points to hope for rebound (viideo).
Today's buying is taking place against a backdrop of continuing dire forecasts by Todd Harrison and Paul Krugman.

2010-2-17: My best investment advisory newsletter has just flashed a buy signal. The market indices have broken above important resistance levels. I've bought the leveraged (2-to-1) NASDAQ Composite index Exchange Traded Fund QLD.

2010-2-16: The markets climbed heartily today: Stocks surge on recovery hopes. The NASDAQ Composite rose handily by 30.66 points, (1.4%) to close at 2,214.19, the Dow was up 169.67 points (1.68%) to close at 10,268.81, and the S&P 500 advanced 19.36 points (1.8%) to close at 1,094.87. Oil moved up to $77.26 a barrel. Gold lost $30 to end the day at $1,120. The VIX fell 0.48 to 22.25.
    Michael Ashbaugh's Tuesday column sets forth the S&P's current upper resistance lines at 1,085 and 1,104m with major support at 1,044. As long as the S&P remains above its 200-day moving average, now at 1,120, an intermediate-term uptrend is in place .At the same time, the S&P is below its 50-day moving average, and, quoth Monsieur Ashbaugh, whichever way it breaks out will set a new trend.
    Mark Hulbert writes: Contrarians say this is only a correction.
    Citigroup's plan: profit from the next crisis

2010-2-12: The markets ended mixed today, with the NASDAQ Composite up 6 and the Dow down 45.
    The NASDAQ Composite climbed 6.12 points, (0.38%) to close at 2,183.53, the Dow dropped 45.05 points (-0.44%) to close at 10,099.14, and the S&P 500 slipped 10.34 points (-0.27%) to close at 1,075.51. Oil moved down $0.99 to $74.13 a barrel. Gold lost $5 to end the day at $1,090. The VIX fell 1.23 to 22.73.
    Dubai's sovereign debt is back in the news: Dubai debt concern grows.
    China announced a new surprise tightening of its bank reserve requirements casting a shadow over the Chinese marketplace. Also, Europe posted a weaker-than-expected advance in its combined GDP.
    Marketwatch' Chuck Jaffe warns that shorting the market right now using Proshares Ultra-Short funds could be hazardous to your portfolio: Betting against stocks now could be stupid

2010-2-11: The markets rose today on news that the EU will bail out Greece: E.U. offers support for Greece, and that first time jobless claims have fallen to 440,000, after rising in January: Lowest claims in months.
    The NASDAQ Composite climbed 29.54 points, (1.38%) to close at 2,177.41, the Dow advanced 105.88 points (1.05%) to close at 10,144.19, and the S&P 500 added unto itself 10.34 points (0.97%) to close at 1,078.47. Oil advanced $0.64 to $75.12 a barrel. Gold gained $18 to end the day at $1,095. The VIX fell 1.41 to 23.99.
    The markets have been forming a base at these low levels in the biggest pullback since last March. They're now better-positioned to advance, after scaring rookies like me into selling. (Bull markets invariably climb a wall of worry in which even the pros are shaken down to give up part of their gains as the markets climb amid dire news.)
    At the same time, there's still the possibility for further sovereign defaults and related Eurozone problems.

2010-2-10: After yo-yoing down and up, the markets closed down a little today.
    The NASDAQ Composite backed off 3 points, (-0.14%) to close at 2,147.87, the Dow subtracted 20.26 points (-0.2%) to close at 10,038.38, and the S&P 500 parted with 2.39 points (-0.22%) to close at 1,068.13. Oil advanced $0.90 to $74.68 a barrel. Gold dropped $1 to end the day at $1,076. The VIX fell 0.6 to 25.40.
    Todd Harrison expands upon his remarks about the impact that the European debt crisis can have on U. S. markets: Why European debt matters to the U.S.,
    Dow Theory theorists are either bearish, or have set high hurdles that the Dow must surmount to keep a rally going: Dow Theory letters challenge the bulls.
   Citigroup's Peter D'Antonio believes that the U. S. economy "is beginning to grow on its own steam": 'Virtuous cycle' of growth coming.
    Housing is evincing distressing signs of a double-dip in real estate prices: Double-dip drops.
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined his exit strategy today: Exit keyed to economy, Bernanke says.  Chairman Bernanke's remarks are thought to have unsettled the markets a bit. Add to that the fact that Greece' deficit may be larger than has been officially reported, and the fact that this was the kind of pattern that preceded the autumn, 2008, market scare, and you have grounds for a cautious day in the trading pits.

2010-2-9: The markets rebounded today, relieved that the European Union may intervene to prop up Greece. Note, though, that Todd Harrison points out that this eerily echoes the situation in the fall of 2008... both literally and figuratively... when the U. S. government rescued Countrywide and established the precedent for rescuing AIG, Fannie Mae, Fannie Mac, and the big investment banks: Random Thoughts: Achtung Baby!. Spain Portugal, and Ireland could be next.
    The NASDAQ Composite popped 24.82 points, (1.17%) to close at 2,150.87, the Dow annexed 150.25 points (1.52%) to close at 10,058.64, and the S&P 500 rose 13.78 points (1.3%) to close at 1,070.52. Oil advanced $2.07 to $73.78 a barrel. Gold added $6 to end the day at $1,071. The VIX fell 0.51 to 26.00.
    So far, the chart pattern for this pullback is typical of a down-trending market, That said, it's also worth noting that Friday's action, where the S&P dropped 20 points from where it opened, and then closed up 2 points from where it opened could be construed to be a key reversal day although it was program-driven and probably wasn't..
    Mark Hulbert's article, What the mutual fund cash level tells us, explains that although mutual fund cash levels are quite low by historical standards, mutual fund managers have little incentive, with the Fed funds interest rate at zero, to park money in money market instruments. The bad news is that even after taking this very-low interest rate environment into account, the markets seldom make much headway when mutual fund cash levels are as low as they are now.
    Paul Farrell warns of the train wreck that he believes lies just ahead: How to invest for the debt-bomb explosion.
    David Weidner warns that banks are making investments with depositors' money that just as risky as they were in 2007: Wall Street's latest contagion goes global. The banks have learned that governments will bail them out, and competition, negligible interest rates (not passed on to bank customers), and "Roaring Twenties" mentalities are driving the financial community toward another bubble-induced collapse.
    I could imagine that banks have little incentive to lend money to businesses and consumers when they can invest other people's money in stocks, bonds, and real estate, and at least for a while, make more money than they could lending money like stodgy old bankers. Then at the end of the year, they can give themselves multimillion-dollar bonuses. They know that it can't go on forever, and if they get a pink slip, they'll cry all the way to the bank. But in the meantime... In the meantime, as Paul Farrell observes, there are 42,000 lobbyists, and corporations can now spend more money than ever funding politicians. How sweet it is!
    This is sheer fantasy on my part... one possible scenario concocted by an outsider. But it seems possible.
    I don't read David Weidner as a bomb-throwing firebrand. (:-)

2010-2-8: The markets closed at their lowest level since this pullback began. The NASDAQ Composite declined 15.07 points, -0.7%) to close at 2,126.05, the Dow dropped 103.84 points (-1.04%) to close at 9,908.39, and the S&P 500 fell 3.08 points (-0.89%) to close at 1,056.74. Oil fell sharply to $71.70 a barrel. Gold fell $13 to end the day at $1,066. The VIX climbed 0.4 to 26.51.
    I haven't yet shorted the market, nor have my advisory services, but it could happen at any time.
       The analyst interviewed in this video clip thinks that although there's overheating in certain parts of the Chinese economy, it has reached bubble proportions: How fast is China likely to cool?

2010-2-8 (Mid-Morning): The markets rose last Friday morning, then fell precipitously, and then rose equally precipitously into the close. The reasons for these gyrations was that, early on, the markets got some moderately good news in the form of the Friday unemployment reports. Then came word that Portugal had eschewed an austerity program, and had instead decided to go the well and borrow money however their regional governments chose. Portugal then held a Treasury auction, where the country was only able to sell $300,000,000 of the $500,000,000 it was trying to sell. Coming on the heels of the Greek debt crisis, and concerns about Spanish and Eastern European debt, this sent shock waves through the financial community. This, in turn, sparked a flight to the perceived safety of the dollar.
    Toward the end of the day, computerized trading programs drove the markets up as dramatically as they'd fallen.

2010-2-5: The markets fell deep into bear country today, but then rallied sharply toward the end of the trading day, closing up for the day. Wall Street swinging back: . The NASDAQ Composite climbed 15.69 points, (0,74%) to close at 2,141,12, the Dow rallied 10.05 points (0.1%) to close at 10,012.23, and the S&P 500 advanced 3.08 points (0.29%) to close at 1,066.19. Oil fell sharply to $71.42 a barrel. Gold fell $10 to end the day at $1,054. The VIX climbed 0.03 to 26.11.
Dow reclaims 10,000
   Dollar extends gains
   Jobless rate below 10%
   Jobs showing signs of life
   Data don't tell us what we want
   One of my investment advisory services suggests that the current contraction is a correction in an ongoing cyclical bull market rather than the beginning of a new cyclical bear market because of technical indicators that have indicated something other than a bull market top. Still, no one can be sure. The advisory service thinks that this is the first leg in a two- or three-stage market correction. If so, there will be better buying opportunities ahead.
    The S&P 500 penetrated the 1,045 level today, which, at -9%, puts it close to a 10% correction. (This would occur at 1,035.)
    The dollar continued its rise today because of a flight to the relative safety of the dollar (along with some further unwinding of the dollar carry trade, as nervous hedge-fund traders who bet against the dollar sold stocks to cover their bets against the dollar.).

2010-2-4: The markets fell down a flight of stairs today. The indices are penetrating resistance levels. The NASDAQ Composite plunged 65.48 points, (-3.11%) to close at 2,125.43, the Dow sagged 268.37 points (-2.61%) to close at 10,002.18, and the S&P 500 parted with 34.17 points (-3.11%) to close at 1,063.11. Oil fell sharply to $73.07 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,064. The VIX climbed 4.5 to 26.10.
Why did the markets plunge today? Here are a few reasons: Dollar up to 7-month high, Euro-zone whack-a-mole, and Dow holds tight to 10,000. Presumably, the dollar has risen because of worries about the safety of European sovereign debt. Bad news coming in Friday jobs report.
Market futures are up slightly tonight.

2010-2-3: The markets were mixed today.. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.85 points, (0.04%) to close at 2,190.91, the Dow dropped 26.3 points (-0.26%) to close at 10,270.55, and the S&P 500 lost 6.04 points (-0.55%) to close down at 1,097.28. Oil was little-changed at $76.83 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,112. The VIX climbed 0.12 to 21.60.
    Why did the markets pause today? U.S. stocks snap win-streak as health shares drop, Planned layoffs rise for first time since July, and Wall Street counting down to Friday's jobs report.
    Todd Harrison is sticking by his guns that a day of reckoning is still coming: Welcome to the politics of policy.
    My investment service is still awaiting a decisive break above resistance levels before re-committing to putting money back (long) into the stock market.
   Stock market futures are neutral again tonight.

2010-2-2: The markets have moved up again today. The NASDAQ Composite rose 18.86 points, (0.87%) to close at 2,190,06, the Dow gained 111.32 points (1.09%) to close at 10,296.85, and the S&P 500 added 14.13 points (1.3%) to close up at 1,103.32. Oil jumped up to $76.90 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,118. The VIX dropped 1.11 to 21.48.
     The markets were up today because Pending home sales up 1%, recover from Nov. plunge, Best two-day rise in three months.
    The shape of the market plots, below, suggest that at least a few days of recovery are in the offing, and this could be the beginning of another rise from a dip. However, the indices are well below their 50-day moving averages, and it was time to sell
    I won't get a scheduled update from my investment advisory services until just before the market opens tomorrow.
    As of today (Tuesday), my investment advisory service is still in cash. If that changes, I'll let you know.
    The article The world is starting to worry about China observes that the Chinese markets are already down 10%, and that arguments that the Chinese government is only tightening up for a few weeks is typical of the classic "this time, it's different" refrain.
    Paul Farrell warns Our debt time bomb is ready to go ka-boom. Paul Krugman is also warning about a potential second leg of this recession.
    Stock market futures are neutral tonight.

2010-2-1: The markets, strongly oversold on a short-term basis, have rebounded today. The NASDAQ Composite rose 23.85 points, (1.11%) to close at 2,171.20, the Dow gained 118.2 points (1.17%) to close at 10,185.53, and the S&P 500 added 15.32 points (1.43%) to close up at 1,089.19. Oil jumped up to $74.95 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,105. The VIX dropped 2.03 to 22.59.
    The shape of the market plots, below, suggest that at least a few days of recovery are in the offing, and this could be the beginning of another rise from a dip. However, the indices are well below their 50-day moving averages, and it was time to sell
    I won't get a scheduled update from my investment advisory services until just before the market opens tomorrow.
    Low follows stimulus high in China
    Valuations point to more correction

2010-1-29: Once again, the market indices fell steeply closing at another new low for this dip (correction?). This dip now enjoys the dubious distinction of being both the deepest in absolute numbers (76 points on the S&P 500... about 6%... though not the deepest dip percentage-wise) since the market bottomed last March. The NASDAQ Composite relinquished 31.65 points, (-1.45%) to close at 2,147.35, the Dow dipped 53.13 points (-0.52%) to close at 10,067.33, and the S&P 500 subtracted 10.66 points (-0.98%) to 1,073.87. Oil closed at $72.89 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,083. The VIX rose 0.89 to 24.62.
    Today's news was good: Fourth-quarter GDP was up 5.7% in the third quarter--1% more than expected, and consumer confidence showed a welcome gain. The consensus forecast for GDP growth going forward is about 3&. The 2009 GDP came in at $14.3 trillion, so a 3% gain would put it at $14.7 trillion by the end of 2010. So why didn't the markets rise? Could it have been because of a rising dollar, forcing further unwinding of the dollar trade, and selling of assets to cover hedge fund bets against the dollar? There's no discussion in the news tonight explaining what's going on.
    The Cabot's China and Emerging Markets Report is still 50% in Chinese stocks and recommending the purchase of two Chinese stocks... this, after the Halter index has broken far below not only its 50-day moving average but also its 200-day moving average. I sold the remainder of my Chinese stocks today--about 15% of my portfolio. I'm now about 72% in cash.
    Mark Hulbert has written January by the numbers, showing that the track record of the January barometer isn't all that good.

2010-1-28: The market indices fell steeply today, closing at a new low for this dip (correction?). The NASDAQ Composite fell 17.88 points, (-1.91%) to close at 2,179.00, the Dow dropped 115.7 points (-1.13%) to close at 10,120.46, and the S&P 500 subtracted 12.97 points (-1.18%) to 1,084.53. Oil closed at $73.76 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,086. The VIX rose 0.57 to 23.73.
   According to Morningstar, the reasons for today's tumble are:
(1) the fact that U. S. jobless claims fell by 8,000 last week to 470,000 vs. the consensus projection of 450,000,
(2) durable goods orders rose just 0.3% vs. the consensus forecast of 2%, and
(3) Apple and Qualcomm reported disappointing earnings.
    Whatever the arguments, the fact is that market indices have fallen below their 50-day moving averages, and even below their 200-day moving averages. I'm planning either another round of selling tomorrow or the purchase of inverse funds or puts to hedge the rest of my portfolio. (The ETF's can be sold outright, while my remaining mutual funds might profit from puts that would offset their potential losses... a "collar").
    Here's a rundown on Apple's new iPad: Apple launches iPad tablet device.
    Stock market futures are up slightly tonight.

2010-1-27: The market indices eked out modest gains today. The NASDAQ Composite rose 17.88 points, (0.8%) to close at 2,221.41, the Dow took on 41.87 points (0.41%) to close at 10,236.16, and the S&P 500 added 5.33 points (0.49%) to 1,097.50. Oil closed at $73.43 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,087. The VIX fell 1.41 to 23.14.
   The fact that the markets have paused rather than immediately plunging down farther is at least a little positive. Still, the indices are below their 50-day moving averages. The fact that Nouriel ("Dr. Doom") Roubini foresees a recovery at all (Roubini sees a slow recovery) has to contribute a little to investor confidence.
    Mark Hulbert points out that small stocks have their day primarily during the month of December: After end of January, size does matter .
    Todd Harrison shines a spotlight on what's really happening in: The Washington witch hunt hits home.
    Former Treasury Secretary Paulson, grilled today for the bailout of American International Group, told Congress that the unemployment rate would have hit 25% if the bailout hadn't taken place: Paulson: 25% unemployment rate without AIG bailout. One reader ("Siteleader") writing in observes that the Shadowstats unemployment estimate is about 22% right now... which raises the question: if the unemployment percentage is only 3% below that at the 1932 nadir of the Great Depression, why don' we have the social unrest that manifested itself in the soup kitchens, the bread lines, and the "shanty-towns" of 1932 (not to mention the Veterans' March on Washington?
    I would suggest three speculations concerning why, possibly, this hasn't happened (so far).
    First, there were no safety nets in 1932... no Social Security, no unemployment insurance, and not many relatively secure government jobs. Today, there are often relatives with secure income streams who can provide aid and comfort. Also, there was probably a significant fraction of the 1932 population that was underemployed but not reported as part of the 25% peak unemployment figure (unlike the current 22% unemployment number above).
    Second, dual-wage-earner families weren't at all as common in 1932 as they are today. In 1932, when the principal breadwinner was laid off, the family income went to zero. Today, one spouse may still be employed after the other has been released.
    Third, in 1932, fear stalked the land, as conditions continued to deteriorate. Today, the economy appears to be recovering.
    Stock market futures are up strongly tonight.

2010-1-26: Although stock market futures were down sharply last night, the markets rose substantially and then fell back today: U.S. stocks end down after late-day swoon. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 5.51 points, (-0.32%) to close at 2,203,73, the Dow gave up a negligible 2.57 points (-0.03%) to close at 10,194.29, and the S&P 500 shed 4.61 points (-0.42%) to 1,092.17. Oil ended the day at $75.12 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,096. The VIX fell 0.86 to 24.59.
Michael Ashbaugh observes that Trends are violated. The intermediate-term trend is now down, and if stocks go up, the S&P 500 will face resistance at 1115, which is where its 50- moving average lies, and where it closed at the end of last year.
Chuck Jaffe: Bull market has more room to run

2010-1-25: The markets rose modestly today. Whether this marks a bottom or is merely a dead-cat bounce remains to be seen. The NASDAQ Composite gained an exiguous 5.51 points, (0.25%) to close at 2,210.80, the Dow climbed a paltry 23.88 points (0.23%) to close at 10,196.86, and the S&P 500 rose 5.02 points (0.46%) to 1,096.78. Oil ended the day at $75.12 a barrel. Gold ended at $1,096. The VIX fell 1.9 to 25.41.
    I'm retaining the paragraph below from last Friday's commentary because it's probably worth repeating.
    "The markets are certainly overdue for a 10%-or-greater correction: Correction long overdue (video). However, this is happening with extreme rapidity (as shown in the charts below), although the magnitudes of the daily moves don't match those of the panicky October of 2008. This article: Earnings only part of story, explains that although earnings are rising, revenues aren't The earnings are coming from cost-cutting, etc., and don't reflect a reviving consumer economy.
    "On the other hand, the World Fund announced on Wednesday that the worst of the financial crisis has passed: Where will the next crisis hit?.
    "I'm more than 50% in cash, and I may hedge my remaining long positions by buying a double-inverse index Exchange-Traded Fund on Monday."
    One reason given for Friday's stock swoon was the report that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's reappointment was in question. Wall Street sent a strong message to Congress that they don't want the Fed to be held hostage to the November elections.
    After-hours earnings and revenue reports from Apple and Texas Instruments have shown strong gains from a year ago.
    Perma-bear Jeremy Gratham warns that Investors face new stock-market bubble: Grantham.

2010-1-22: The markets have tumbled for the third day in a row. They've nose-dived more than 5% in three days... something not seen since the October massacre of 2008. The NASDAQ Composite lost 60.41 points, (-2.67%) to close at 2,205.29, the Dow plunged 216.9 points (-2.09%) to close at 10,172.98, and the S&P 500 dove 24.72 points (-2.21%) to 1,091.76. Oil ended the day at $74.54 a barrel. Gold doffed another $11 to end at $1,092. The VIX shot up 5.04 to 27.31.
    The markets are certainly overdue for a 10%-or-greater correction: Correction long overdue (video). However, this is happening with extreme rapidity (as shown in the charts below), although the magnitudes of the daily moves don't match those of the panicky October of 2008. This article: Earnings only part of story, explains that although earnings are rising, revenues aren't The earnings are coming from cost-cutting, etc., and don't reflect a reviving consumer economy.
    On the other hand, the World Fund announced on Wednesday that the worst of the financial crisis has passed: Where will the next crisis hit?.
    I'm more than 50% in cash, and I may hedge my remaining long positions by buying a double-inverse index Exchange-Traded Fund on Monday.
    Howard Gold writes: Read Six big predictions for 2010.
    Four other articles that might be of interest are:
    Dust still settling on Street
    Here come the corporate dollars
    Mark Hulbert: A second look at second years
    Nouriel Roubini: Don't depend on China

2010-1-21: As of today's close, the "sell" decision is still looking timely. The NASDAQ Composite lost 25.55 points, (-1.12%) to close at 2,265.70, the Dow plunged 213.27 points (-2.01%) to close at 10,389.88, and the S&P 500 dove 21.56 points (-1.89%) to 1,116.48. Oil ended the day at $75.98 a barrel. Gold doffed another $10 to end at $1,103. The VIX shot up 3.58 to 22.27.
    The headlines read: Unpleasant surprise in first-time jobless claims, and Paul Krugman is saying, "No reason to panic", but that "Quite aside from everything else going on, the economic recovery isn’t looking very good."
    Right now, the S&P 500 has violated its 25-day moving average and is touching its 50-day moving average. The Dow has broken below both of those moving averages. The NASDAQ has closed below its 25-day average, but is still comfortably above its 50-day average. But my advisory service has issued a "sell" recommendation, and I'm now about 30% in cash.
    The Cabot China and Emerging Markets Report is recommending selling a couple of stocks but holding the rest and even buying two Chinese stocks.
    Weidner sees a return to sanity in banking

2010-1-21 (Mid-Afternoon): My investment advisory service has just flashed a "sell" signal. I'm going to be moving into cash.
2010-1-21 (Late Morning): The stock market is being driven downward by programmed trading caused by the dollar breaching an important upside barrier against the Euro. Traders, especially at hedge funds, who have borrowed money that has taken advantage of the relatively low cost of the dollar and then reinvested that money in stocks and commodities are dumping their stocks and commodity contracts because their computers have issued warnings that they must cover their bets that the dollar wouldn't rise.
    What's at risk here is the possibility of the unwinding of the dollar carry trade.
    Stay tuned. If the markets continue to fall, it may be time for a "sell" signal later today. (Personally, I'm also waiting for today's Cabot China and Emerging Markets newsletter update. So far, there haven't been any emails advising its subscribers to sell.)

2010-1-20: The indices fell today approximately as much as they rose yesterday. The reason is political. Yesterday's election of a Republican Senator to replace Democrat Ted Kennedy is being interpreted as a development that will strengthen the dollar, which, in turn, has led to some short-covering of bets against the dollar. And lately, the equity markets have moved down when the dollar has moved up. The NASDAQ Composite lost 29.15 points, (-1.26%) to close at 2,291.25, the Dow backed up 115.78 points (-1.14%) to close at 10,603.15, and the S&P 500 gave up 12.19 points (-1.06%) to 1,138.04. Oil ended the day at $77.62 a barrel. Gold doffed $27 to end at $1,113. The VIX rose 0.33 to 18.68.
December home sales were disappointing: Builder stocks fall on FHA news, housing starts. Mark Hulbert observes what my advisory service has observed: that the breadth and continuing drift to new highs argues for still-higher highs ahead: New high data suggests new highs ahead. However, the World Bank today offered a sobering prospect for a second leg of a double-dip recession this year: World Bank worried about recovery.

2010-1-19: The indices gained more today than they lost last Friday, reaching new post-recession highs. The NASDAQ Composite increased 32.41 points, (1.42%) to close at 2,320.40, the Dow climbed 115.78 points (1.09%) to close at 10,725.43, and the S&P 500 closed up 14.2 points (1.25%) to 1,150.23. Oil ended the day at $78.59 a barrel. Gold donned $13 to end at $1,141. The VIX fell 0.33 to 17.58.
The reason for today's exuberance: a Republican won Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, breaking the Democrats' filibuster-proof control of the Senate, and endangering the passage of the new health care bill, allowing health care companies to keep raising their prices and their earnings: Obamacare at the precipice.
And that's about all the news that I can find tonight.

2010-1-15: The indices all took a major hit.. The NASDAQ Composite backed up 28.75 points, (-1.24) to close at 2,287.99, the Dow dropped 100.9 points (-0.94%) to close at 10,609,655, and the S&P 500 closed down 12.43 points (-1.08%) to 1,136.03. Oil fell further to $78.00 a barrel. Gold doffed $13 to end at $1,131. The VIX rose a modest 0.28 to 17.91.
Why did the markets fall like this? Marketwatch' take: Bank fee, tarred as Chavez tactic, roils the industry. However, my advisory services still haven't thrown in the towel. The China and Emerging Markets newsletter sees the current Chinese slump as a buying opportunity. (I hope they're right!)
Mark Hulbert: Contrarian sentiment picture improves.

2010-1-14: The indices all eked out sufficient gains today to close at their highest levels since 2008. The NASDAQ Composite tiptoed up 8.84 points, (0.38%) to close at 2,316.74, the Dow gained 29.78 points (0.28%) to close at 10,710.55, and the S&P 500 closed up 2.78 points (0.24%) to 1,148.46. Oil fell further to $79.00 a barrel. Gold added $7 to end at $1,144. The VIX subtracted 0.22 to close at 17.63.
Intel reported better-than-expected earnings, buoying the tech sector.
Stock market futures are down tonight.

2010-1-13: The indices all climbed today almost as much as they declined yesterday. The NASDAQ Composite rose 25.59 points, (1.12%) to close at 2,307.90, the Dow gained 53.51 points (0.5%) to close at 10,680.77 and the S&P 500 closed up 9.46 points (-0.91%) to 1,145.68. Oil fell further to $79.87 a barrel. Gold added $9 to end at $1,138. The VIX subtracted 0.4 to close at 17.85.
    I mentioned yesterday that there will probably be at least one 10%-or-greater correction this year, and that it/they will have to be scary enough to cause enough professional money managers sleepless nights that they'll be willing to sell stocks at lower prices than their pre-correction levels. However, over the next few years, barring a severe "black swan" event, the world's economies will recover, and world stock markets will probably be higher than they are today.
    Nearer-term, Todd Harrison points out that "individual investor exposure to stocks is the highest since October 2007 while exposure to cash is at levels last seen in August 2000". He observes that greed has replaced fear as the motif describing current stock market psychology.
    Topstock Portfolios confirms that investor sentiment is at levels not seen since the fall of 2007. These markers are worrisome because they suggest that the fuel that has powered the current market rally has been expended.
    In August, 1982, after rising from 777 on the Dow (which was both a cyclical bear market bottom, and a super-bear market bottom), the Dow peaked at 1200 on June 25, 1983 (10½ months later). It then entered a greater-then-20% corrective phase that lasted until August, 1984, over a year later. We're approaching 10½ months from March 6, 2009. This kind of horrendous correction could happen again. Short-term, it looks to me as though a "buy" signal is still in effect, but a major correction could come at any time. And we are still in a roughly-16-year, super-bear- market half-cycle until 2014-to-2018. While I certainly respect the prognostications of Blackrock's chief investment officer, Bob Doll, there may be thrills, spills, and chills before we get where Mr. Doll anticipates that we're going, and I don't think my nervous system could stand another back-to-back downturn. Accordingly, I'm not going to get aggressive just yet.
    Meanwhile, China's FXI (see below) is continuing to fall, and is well below its 50-day moving average.

2010-1-12: The indices all declined today. The NASDAQ Composite sank 30.1 points, (-1.3%) to close at 2,282.31, the Dow lost 36.73 points (-0.34%) to close at 10,627.26 and the S&P 500 subsided 10.76 points (`0.17%) to 1,146.98. Oil dropped to $80.06 a barrel. Gold plummeted $1,129. The VIX rose 0.7 to 18.25.
    I mentioned yesterday that the VIX ran mostly below its present level of about 18 (see the last chart below) for 3½ years from the beginning of 2004 through the middle of 2007, so the fact that it's presently around 18 isn't necessarily cause for alarm. But what's distinctive about the present situation is the steep downward slope of the VIX since it peaked at 96 in October, 2008. It's also interesting to look at how rapidly the VIX shot up in 2008. On August 29th, it closed at 19.43. By the end of September, it had climbed to 47. Then it topped out three weeks later, on October 23rd, at the aforementioned 96 ( not quite eight weeks after August 29th), though it closed that day, thanks to federal reassurances, at about 67. Two days later, it closed at 80, with its highest close, at 80.86, coming on November 20th. What's significant about this is how fast it happened, and how fast it could happen again in 2010 or 2011.
    As of tonight, the S&P 500 is up about 70% from last year's low, while my portfolio is only up 40%. Disappointing as this is, it's important to realize that last year's debacle was categorically different from anything that has occurred since the Great Depression. This is the first time in 80 years that recessions haven't been under the control of the Federal Reserve. Only heroic and desperate measures by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department saved this country from the Great Depression 2.0. and it's my notion that there were no a priori assurances that what they did would work. The last two years have seen what I hope will have been a once-in-a-lifetime financial meltdown. Unusual cautionary measures were in order.
    The question now is what to do about recovering from this. The S&P 500 is still about 35% below its 2007 high. In the meantime, global trade is just beginning to pick up. China is starting to export again. (With respect to China, it's worth noting that the China index FXI has topped and is rolling over... see below China has just begun raising interest rates to cool the Chinese economy in order to head off inflation and/or a real estate bubble.) However, it may still make sense to invest in calls on the international ETF EEM. The risk here is that dwindling liquidity will hit emerging markets once interest rates start to rise. And interest rates are going to rise unless the world's economies collapse again. Still, international funds are still, like the U. S., down about 30% from their highs.
    There are other investment areas such as alternative energy that may well match or exceed the broad domestic and international marketplaces over the coming year or so.
    One problem is that there will probably be one or two 10%-or-greater corrections this year. This can only happen if a majority of investing professionals can be persuaded that the recovery is stalling out, and that we're heading for a waterfall. That means that the news will be very scary, and that it will probably become advisable to sell, and even to short the market during the year.

(To be continued)

2010-1-11: The indices closed mixed today. The NASDAQ Composite fell 4.76 points, (-0.31%) to close at 2,312.41, the Dow added 45.60 points (0.43%) to close at 10,663.99 and the S&P 500 rose 2 points (`0.17%) to 1,146.98. Oil dropped a little to $81.88 a barrel. Gold closed up at $1,152. The VIX fell 0.58 to 17.55.
Here are two divergent articles concerning what's in store for 2010. With respect to the first, Storm clouds forming over market, the author comments on the low values for the VIX (the so-called "fear index"). It may be worth noting in this regard that from early 2004 until the middle of 2007, the VIX spent most of its time at levels below tonight's close at 17.55. The other article is Dawn of the Decade: The Bull Case for 2010.
I'd like to write more more about this, but we took Amber to Toys R'Us this evening as compensation for having to take an H1N1 flu shot this afternoon, and I spent the rest of the evening on the floor playing house with her, and reading her bedtime stories. The one interlude when I stole to the computer to update today's investment interpretations was truncated when Amber stole to the computer to tell me that the dolls that came with her little plastic castle were too tall to fit in the castle. (And sure enough, she's right.)

2010-1-8: All three indices rose again today, with the NASDAQ Composite pole-vaulting, to more than offset yesterday's slight decline. The indices continue to rise in stealth mode. The NASDAQ Composite climbed 17.12 points, (0.74%) to close at 2,317.17, the Dow added 11.33 points (0.11%) to close at 10,618.19, and the S&P 500 rose 3.29 points (`0.29%) to 1,144.98. Oil gain a little to $82.75 a barrel. Gold closed up at $1,139. The VIX fell 0.93 to 18.13.
Today's job report was a shocker, with 85,000 jobs lost instead of the hoped-for few-thousand jobs added: U.S. payrolls shed 85,000 jobs To add to the concerns, U. S. investors set a new record in paying down credit card debt: U.S. consumer credit down record $17.49 bln. As commendable as this is for long-term consumer financial strength, short-term, it's a dagger aimed at the heart of the economic recovery. The financial news is starting to get pessimistic
I'm going to rerun yesterday's interview with Bob Doll because of its significance.

    "Some pivotally important news: here is a set of predictions by a prophet with an outstanding track record in forecasting market trends: the chief investment officer of the Blackrock hedge fund, Bob Doll. I've taken this list from one of my favorite investment newsletters (along with the Cabot China and Emerging Markets Newsletter): TopStock Portfolios. Of course, no one can be 100% right when it comes to "playing" the stock market, but I'm quite impressed with the savvy and the solid judgment exhibited by David Moenning and his associates.
    "Anyway, here's the set of predictions:
(1) The economy should grow 3%-3.5% this year... i. e. this won't be a double-dip recession.
(2) Job growth will turn positive, but unemployment will remain high for several years.
(3) Earnings should rise about 30% to $80 a share, suggesting a stock market that could sustain a return to 2007 highs.
(4) With worldwide excess capacity and high unemployment, inflation won't reappear this year,
(5) Although the Federal Reserve may not raise its rates, interest rates will rise across the board.
(6) We haven't had a 10%-or-greater correction since the March 6th, 2009, low. We can probably expect one or two such corrections this year.
(7) Emerging markets will continue to outperform.
(8) Health care, technology, and telecommunications are good investment areas.
(9) Mergers and acquisitions will accelerate.
(10) Democrats will continue to control Congress. (Of course, Democrats will automatically continue to control Congress through 2010, since there will be no actual changes in Congress until January 2, 2011.)
    "What's important to me about this is the conclusion that there won't be a double-dip recession in 2010. Of course, I'll automatically sell if the market heads south, but this forecast helps take the chill off the worst recession since The Great Depression. I'll be taking a more-aggressive stance moving forward. Specifically, I'll be investing more in long-term, deep-in-the-money (conservative) call options on index exchange-traded funds (ETFs). What calls? Well, the Nasdaq Composite ETF QQQ has a $30 January, 2011, call option, -ZVXAD, that might be of interest.
    "I'll write more about this over the weekend..
    "Tomorrow morning comes the big jobs report.

    "At long last, payrolls may gain."

    Unfortunately, payrolls didn't gain.
   The current uptick is getting ripe for at least a modest pullback. It probably makes sense to wait for that before buying.
    Here are Ten investment ideas for 2010.

2010-1-7: The Dow and the S&P gained a little today, while the Nasdaq fell slightly. The indices are sneaking up. The NASDAQ Composite ended the day down 1.04 points, (-0.06%) to close at 2,300.05, the Dow added 33.18 points (0.31%) to close at 10,606.86, and the S&P 500 rose 4.55 points (`0.4%) to 1,141.69. Oil dropped a little to $82.20 a barrel. Gold declined $3 to $1,134. The VIX fell 0.1 to 19.06.
    Some pivotally important news: here is a set of predictions by a prophet with an outstanding track record in forecasting market trends: the chief investment officer of the Blackrock hedge fund, Bob Doll. I've taken this list from one of my favorite investment newsletters (along with the Cabot China and Emerging Markets Newsletter): TopStock Portfolios. Of course, no one can be 100% right when it comes to "playing" the stock market, but I'm quite impressed with the savvy and the solid judgment exhibited by David Moenning and his associates.
    Anyway, here's the set of predictions:
(1) The economy should grow 3%-3.5% this year... i. e. this won't be a double-dip recession.
(2) Job growth will turn positive, but unemployment will remain high for several years.
(3) Earnings should rise about 30% to $80 a share, suggesting a stock market that could sustain a return to 2007 highs.
(4) With worldwide excess capacity and high unemployment, inflation won't reappear this year,
(5) Although the Federal Reserve may not raise its rates, interest rates will rise across the board.
(6) We haven't had a 10%-or-greater correction since the March 6th, 2009, low. We can probably expect one or two such corrections this year.
(7) Emerging markets will continue to outperform.
(8) Health care, technology, and telecommunications are good investment areas.
(9) Mergers and acquisitions will accelerate.
(10) Democrats will continue to control Congress. (Of course, Democrats will automatically continue to control Congress through 2010, since there will be no actual changes in Congress until January 2, 2011.)
    What's important to me about this is the conclusion that there won't be a double-dip recession in 2010. Of course, I'll automatically sell if the market heads south, but this forecast helps take the chill off the worst recession since The Great Depression. I'll be taking a more-aggressive stance moving forward. Specifically, I'll be investing more in long-term, deep-in-the-money (conservative) call options on index exchange-traded funds (ETFs). What calls? Well, the Nasdaq Composite ETF QQQ has a $30 January, 2011, call option, -ZVXAD, that might be of interest.
    I'll write more about this over the weekend..
    Tomorrow morning comes the big jobs report.

    At long last, payrolls may gain.

2010-1-6: The markets more or less treaded water again today. The NASDAQ Composite ended the day down 7.62 points, (-0.33%) to close at 2,301.09, the Dow inched up 1.66 points (0.02%) to close at 10,573.68, and the S&P 500 annexed 0.62 points (`0.05%) to 1,137.14. Oil climbed to $83.04 a barrel. Gold gained $18 to $1,137. The VIX fell 0.19 to 19.16.
There wasn't a lot of openly published news today. Private payrolls shed 84,000: ADP was presumably good news compared to the 600,000+ layoff numbers that prevailed last spring. One study notes that a number of bears are capitulating ("Too much of a bullish thing"), which, from a contrarian point of view, isn't a good sign.

2010-1-5: The markets more or less treaded water today. The NASDAQ Composite ended the day up 0.29 points, (0.01%) to close at 2,308.71, the Dow gave back 11.94 points (-0.11%) to close at 10,572.02, and the S&P 500 annexed 3.53 points (`0.31%) to 1,136.52. Oil climbed to $81.90 a barrel. Gold gained $0 to $1,119. The VIX fell 0.69 to 19.35.
This week's issue of BusinessWeek has a lead article entitled, "In Wall Street's Pocket", that details the way Wall Street firms have dodged any meaningful reforms, and have set the stage for the next credit implosion.
Here are several articles which may warrant attention: Irwin Kellner: Time the demise of ultralow rates, Mark Hulbert on Inflation versus deflation, Todd Harrison on Ten themes for 2010, Foreign stocks for 2010?, and Senators debate bank reform in private.

2010-1-4: The markets rose 1½ % or more today. The NASDAQ Composite ended the day up 39.27 points, (1.73%) to close at 2,308.42, the Dow leaped 155.91 points (1.5%) to close at 10,583.96, and the S&P 500 jumped 17.89 points (`.6%) to 1,132.99. Oil climbed to $81.64 a barrel. Gold gained $23 to start the year at $1,120. The VIX fell 1.64 to 20.04.
As soon as I'm able, I hope to write something about stock market expectations for 2010, but at the moment, the current Arctic cold snap has Amber at home with Tommie and myself all day, and I'm spending virtually all of my time with our little three-year-old colleen.
Mark Hulbert suggests that we may be seeing A consumer-led recovery?, while Peter Brimelow presents the case for further gains in China: China still offers opportunities. Mark Hulbert also tells us: Hulbert: First day may mean little, and Paul Farrell adds: Paul Farrell: 12 Dr. Dooms shred 2010 investing optimism.