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Friday, September 13, 2013
Wall Street Week
Ahead: Fed may taper without causing market tantrum; The September stock surge continues.
The NASDAQ Composite expanded 6.21
to end at 3,722.18. The Dow incremented 75.42
to end at 15,376.06; the S&P 500 advanced 4.57
to 1,687.99. Oil closed at
108.63::;Oil logs 2.1% weekly loss, but holds above $108 Gold ended at 1,328:
Gold futures suffer a weekly loss of almost 6%, The VIX
fell 0.13 to 14.16.
of anticipation will come to an end next week when the Federal Reserve
finally says whether it will start to rein in its massive stimulus of
the economy, which has flooded financial markets with some $2.75
trillion over the past five years, supercharging returns on everything
from stocks to junk bonds."
"Stocks continued their September rally Friday
as investors anticipated the next moves from the Federal Reserve and
waited for more details on Twitter's IPO plans. More"
Watch your fund returns triple. "5-year
mutual fund returns are about to get juiced as financial disaster ages
out of the data."
U.S. oil independence is near. "The
goal of oil independence may be achieved in a decade, one analyst tells
Myra P. Saefong."
Obama picking Summers for Fed, says Nikkei — White House says no.
Market hasn't priced in 'Summers put,' says one economist.
Markets price in Fed taper.
"The most important market moving event is the central bank's
policy meeting next week. Will they or won't they taper?"
Treasurys eye weekly gain after tepid data.
Housing markets are about to get squeezed. "New
cap on federally backed mortgages may hit buyers particularly hard in
several pockets of U.S."
Sales at U.S. retailers soften in August.
Consumer sentiment hits five-month low.
Intel upgraded to buy at Jefferies.
Omnicom’s Ketchum placed Putin op-ed- report.
J.P. Morgan to spend $4 bln on
The financial cost of religious faith.
I$10B in unused Social Security.
"'Unusual claiming strategies could boost income for any
Cats star in new Social Security media push.
"Feline-centric videos promote online applications for
retirement benefits from the agency."
Think Social Security is
guaranteed? Think again.
Will Social Security be there for
Social Security hurdles for government workers.
Gambling tax hits SSA payouts — even when you lose.
Social Security is not an asset.
Strategies for Social Security spousal benefits.
Some Lehman creditors benefited handsomely.
crisis: What have we learned? (video).
10 players from 2008 financial crisis. "A
look at 10 of the key crisis-era players and where they are now."
Looking for stocks about to break
Growth stocks point to richer prices.
It’s Larry Summers, says Nikkei.
"Japanese newspaper says Summers will get Obama nod for
Fed chief. White House says no."
What 100 basis points mean for bonds.
Laszlo Birinyi thinks S&P is headed for 2,000 "Market
historian says bull isn’t finished, reports Howard Gold."
Could Syria be all about
"Syria has little oil but, notes Ivan Martchev, stands between
Saudi reserves and Turkey and Europe."
What one ex-Fed official expects on tapering.
U.S. Dollar Faces New Competition as Safe Haven Currency.
"When the next financial crisis hits, don’t be surprised if
investors choose the euro over the U.S. dollar as the safe haven of
Economy: Out of the Woods or Still a Giant Bubble?. "Is
China’s economy back? According to some chief executives, the
world’s second-largest economy has rebounded and Chinese consumers
have returned to their old spending ways."
USA: Rise of the everyday robots.
Watch: Bill Gross is selling bonds. Should
Watch: How pharmacies benefit from flu shots.
Jamie Dimon: Still ‘Last Man Standing’ But Knocked Down a Few Pegs.
Take the Money and Run From Copper, Says Dicker.
When interest rates rise, should you sell
1% Getting 95% of Income Gains: Is Washington Responsible?
"A recent study reveals that the top 10% of earners in the U.S. took home more than half the country’s total income in 2012."
With the Highest-Paid Grads "From Harvey Mudd to the U.S. Naval Academy, graduates with bachelor's degrees from these colleges and universities earn the highest salaries in the country."
That Could Be Financially Dangerous "Investing should be an integral part of your financial planning, but be aware that not all investments are created equal, and some can be financially dangerous".
Weidner: Wall Street needs a good shrink.
The Dow is an accident of history.
TARP didn't save banks, it ruined them- Kovacevich.
Wall Street greed, 5 years after the crash.
Survey- Part-Time Work Growing More Due to Economy Than Obamacare.
[video] Government shutdown brewing.
I've moved the Reinhart-Rogoff discussion here.
and the Mars articles here.
of the Markets articles include:
Tech Experts Express Concerns Over Twitter’s IPO Filing.
"While many are all a-twitter about Twitter's IPO, there may be
Market Wrap For Friday, September
13: Markets Erase August Losses On Light Volume.
Preview: Fed Taper Decision Looming.
Update: PPI Comes In Above Expectations, But….
Update: Retail Sales Sluggish in August.
Video Game Sales Rise Ahead Of PlayStation 4, Xbox One Release.
The Latest Microsoft CEO Search Scuttlebutt (MSFT).
Soon: Microsoft Cortana vs. Apple Siri (AAPL, MSFT).
.Short-term, the indices seem to be tracing out
another two-month cycle, although, I guess, we can't be sure until they
hit new highs.
Longer-term, when the Fed finally reaches the point
at which it can raise interest rates (and that will presumably be after
the tapering of QE...Quantitative Easing... has been completed), then
we'll be at the threshold of an era when the Fed can once again use
monetary policy to control the economy. Until then, I think we'll still
be in unfamiliar territory.
Markets and Super-Bear Markets from 1871 to the Present
this going to do to my retirement? Can I ever make this up?
"recession" is categorically different in cause and
consequences than other recessions.
is the national debt, really?
What Should You
Do About the Fluctuations in the Stock Market?
the economy sinking like a stone, how can anyone seriously claim that a
new bull market is about to start?
The FXI chart below shows the two-year price
history of the iShares TR FTSE (China) Exchange-Traded Fund, together with its 50-day
and 200-day moving averages. (With all the major indices having exceeded
their 200-day moving averages, we'll be following
the 25-day and 50-day
moving averages for guidance regarding when to buy and when to well.) The 50-day
moving average would have gotten you out of FXI
in December, 2007, would have gotten you reinvested
in April, 2008, would have taken you back out
around the end of June, 2008, would have gotten you
back in during January, 2009, would have had you
selling again in February, 2009, and then would
have seen you re-purchasing this fund in April, 2009.
Of course, this 50-day moving average isn't
the only indicator someone might want to use to determine buy and sell signals.
Other criteria such as breadth, volume, etc., may play a role, but the 50-day
moving average is a starting point.
Moving averages act as smoothing functions that reveal
underlying stock market trends. What's significant is that these underlying
stock trends exist. Of course, we'd like to time our purchases to hit stock
market bottoms, and our sells to coincide with market tops. Sometimes, during
normal, Fed-controllable recessions, that's possible, but this time, during the
"Great Recession", when you couldn't determine whether or not the
music was going to stop, it was too risky for me.
The two-year chart of the NASDAQ Composite, beloww,
allows a comparison of the Chinese index, above and the NASDAQ Composite
The same kind of two-year chart, with its 50-day
and 200-day moving averages, is presented below for the Dow.
The comparison chart below shows how the Dow is moving above
its Depression-era curve.
next chart shows the S&P
together with its 50-day
a chart showing the 10-year
just the 50-day
here's a 10-year
also known as the "fear
say: Go to ground
held big Citi stake
modern experts bring disaster