Computers and the Internet
|Computer Technology Forecasts
In September, 1976, six months before the first true personal computers, the TRS-80 and the Commodore Personal Electronic Translator 2001, were introduced in March , 1977. I published the (included) paper "Personal Computing - A New Home Brew for You?". It predicts the future of personal computing through the year 1981. Then in 1979, I updated it with a forecast through the year 2000. And in 1991, I updated the update with a forecast through the year 2040. And finally, in 1997, and again this year, I have refined these earlier forecasts and projected them through the year 2012. To find out how well or poorly I did, just click on the above.
1997 Computer Technology Forecast
1996 Computer Technology Forecast
1989 Computer Technology Forecast
1979 Computer Technology Forecast
1976 Computer Technology Forecast
(6-8-2000) Speech Recognition: Coming of Age?:Satisfactory continuous-speech voice dictation, when
it fully arrives, will have profound consequences for both the
home and the office. And it's getting closer. This report
summarizes the voice dictation state-of-the-art as of June 8th,
New! (6-7-2000)In 1992, I helped prepared a 5-year technology forecast for the Huntsville Research Operations of Georgia Tech. Today, I have reviewed and updated this document.
The World in 2020
Special Topic: Computers have become the engine driving the "New Economy", and the rising productivity of American industry. Past speed and storage improvements have brought us to the takeoff point for various unfulfilled computer opportunities. Computer price/performance ratios have improved by a factor of 10,000,000,000 since 1950. How much longer can computer speeds and storage capacities continue to 100-fold every decade? At this rate, by 2030, microchip circuit features would reach atomic levels. It's hard to imagine computer capabilities 1,000,000-folding from here, at least within the foreseeable future. This banner news item deals with the vitally important question of what the future of computers might hold.