Daily Investment Interpretations

March 29, 2012

2012-3-29: (Thursday Night): The market indices ended the day mixed as the dip buyers came out of the woodwork:: Late turnaround for Dow ; Stocks Lower on Macro Drag, Weak US Data. The NASDAQ Composite moved down 9.6 (-0.31%) to end at 3,095.36. The Dow fell 19.61 points (0.15% to 13,126.21; the S&P 500 declined 2.26 points (-0.16%) to settle at 1,403.28. Oil deflated further to 102.82: Oil lower after Saudi comments, bearish tone; gold ends at 166.58: Gold off 0.3%, extends loss to third session. The VIX was basically unchanged at 15.48.
    "Stocks finished lower again on Wednesday in a relatively volatile session of trading. Major indices started the session in mixed trading but would sell off hard following a disappointing durable goods ... Read More »"    
    Tomorrow will mark the end of a quarter and the end of institutional  window-dressing to ensure that fund managers aren't sitting on top of a pile of out-of-work cash after being caught short by a surprise 2012 bull market surge. However, most fund managers have probably completed their window dressing by now, rather than risking the whims of the last couple of trading days of the quarter. So we're probably witnessing a 3% to 5% short term correction, or possibly, a 10% to 12% intermediate term correction right now. (Let's see what the dip-buyers do.)

    Marketwatch says: 
    GDP's good and bad news  

    Jobless claims: Improving employment trend intact
    Ed Campbell: Pullback will be a modest one (audio) 
    Charles Sizemore says, "Inflation worries don't keep me up at night".
    Cody Willard warns: Welcome to the new stock bubble. "
Good morning. Remember when I used to dispute all those analysts who said we were already in a “tech bubble” last year by writing about how we’d know we were finally hitting bubble phase when social networking and app-related IPOs started hitting the markets and doubling on their first day?
Annie’s shares surge in IPO debut‎ Cherry Hill Courier Post
IPO Boom: Millennial Media Doubles At Open WSJ
CafePress IPO prices above range for Thurs. debut – Marketwatch
    "To be clear, I don’t think it’s time to panic because bubbles can and usually do grow far beyond what you ever think is possible. Look up the peak valuation of say, Pets.com, or the LVLT 12-year chart or when AOL /quotes/zigman/577531/quotes/nls/aolAOL-0.05% was worth $100 billion…is it time to add to our Webvan shares yet? (Any of you readers know the Webvan reference I’m making? Free TradingWithCody.com T-shirt for the right answer.) I’ve long predicted this echo-techo bubble we’re now entering, but that doesn’t make me any more comfortable about it for the near-term."
    As we enter into April, a 10%-or-greater interruption in this final leg of the 2009-2012 cyclical bull market is to be expected, starting in April or May. But it won't happen until the bears capitulate.
    State of the Markets is warning about such an eventuality, but will give a sell signal when this starts to occur. The question is: how much farther will this bull run before it takes a breather?  
    Peter Brimelow writes: Latin American stocks surging?  
    Darell Delamaide suggests: Euro bailouts may not be enough
    Euro zone's headaches multiply.
    Europe's growth to lag in first half of 2012: OECD    
    
    A reasonable expectation for the rise of the Dow and the S&P 500 for the 2016-2032 time frame after correcting for inflation and dividends, might be, a 8-folding to10-folding.
    Amylin analysts advise caution amid stock rally
    Analyst price targets are for losers    
    Michael Gayed writes: Will financials lead the way higher?  
    Mark Hulbert: Stocks only slightly expensive.  
    Lawrence McMillan: Bulls are still in charge.  
    Matthew Lynn describes The next leg of gold’s bull run.  
    U.S. stocks drop as global growth fears percolate    

    State of the Markets articles include:   
    U.S. GDP Strong in Fourth Quarter - But Can Growth Continue?  "The final revision to the GDP growth rate for the U.S. economy came in largely in line with consensus expectations. However, questions remain about growth going forward... ... Read More »"
    Welcome To The Bizarro World of 'Fedville' "Welcome to the topsy-turvy world of “Fedville”, which more and more seems to operate under the “Bizarro World” code of the planet “Htrae”, found in Superman comics of the 1960’s. Under Bizarro code, "Us do opposite of all Earthly things!” In Fedville, good is bad and bad is good. In Fedville, words speak louder than actions. In Fedville, underlings contradict their boss without fear. In Fedville, accounting practices do not have to abide by generally accepted rules. In Fedville, speeches create optimism and promote pessimism at the same time. In Fedville, the world of 80 years ago is the model for today’s global economy. And in Fedville, obscurity and transparency are valued equally. And what has been going on in Fedville recently which had created this Bizarro scenario? The S&P ... Read More »"
    Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sagging in March  "The latest date on sentiment in the Eurozone shows that Consumer and Business sentiment failed to improve in the month of March. The overall Business Climate index came in at... ... Read More »"
    Chinese Stock Market Falls to 10-Week Low on Growth Concerns 
    Weekly Jobless Claims Rise In Latest Report  
    Rates Fall at Italian Bond Auction But Spreads Rise Afterwards  
    
    Market futures are slightly positive tonight.