Daily Investment Interpretations
September 30, 2011
The markets tumbled today: Drawn and third quartered
Alone among the indices, the NASDAQ Composite retreated 65.36 points (-2.63%) to close at 2,415.40. The Dow fell 240.6 points (-2.16%) to close at 10,913.38; the S&P 500 parted with 28.98 points (-2.5%) to settle at 1,131.42. Oil backed off to 78.75: Oil slides 11% in month on growth worries; gold rose slightly to 1,627: Gold rises as recent lower prices entice buyers. The VIX hopped up 4.12 points to 42.96.
There was good news today: Some Good News: Chicago PMI Above Expectations, More Good News - University of Michigan Sentiment Above Expectations.
And there was one piece of very bad news that more-or-less trumps the rest: Economic Cycle Research Institute: United States Is Headed Into Recession. The ECRI has a sterling record when it comes to identifying recessions and their recoveries. In this article, Curt Bergquist ponders some impact a U. S. recession would have on the rest of the world, given the role the U. S. and other Western nations play as purchasers of third-world products.
Today's technical analysis is: Technical Talk: Slightly Lower, But Still Range-Bound
Relevant to this are two articles: HSBC's China Purchasing Managers Index Under 50 For Third Straight Month and People's Bank of China Says Inflation Still Priority.
Two other State of the Markets articles are: Germany Unlikely to Approve Leveraging of EFSF and Personal Income and Consumption Report Mixed.
On Marketwatch, Howard Gold writes: Markets deep in bear territory and Minyanville offers Grin and bear it: Don't buy just yet.
SmartMoney offers 4 scenarios for a year-end rally.
Abandon gold, right? Wrong
I think the key take-away message tonight is that the ECRI is forecasting recession. And certainly, this market has been volatile enough and treacherous enough.