Daily Investment Interpretations

August 3, 2011

2011-8-3: (Wednesday Night):  The deeply oversold markets turned up today: Worst streak for stocks since credit crisis, Market Wrap: Losing Streak Comes to an End. The NASDAQ Composite moved up 23.83 points (0.89% ) to end at  2,693.07. The Dow added 29.82 points (0.25%) to close at 11,896.44 the S&P 500 climbed 6.29 points (0.5%) to settle at 1,260.34. Oil closed down at $92.17; gold jumped to 1,670: The VIX declined 1.41 to 23.38.  
    That this was a technical bounce seems to me to be assured by today's bad news: Challenger: Planned Layoffs Surge In July, Factory Orders in U.S. Fell in June, Bad news: Indicators weak, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Disappoints. On the plus side (slightly): China's Services PMI Up; First Rise in Three Months, ADP Employment Report Shows Private Sector Jobs Rose in July, and Stimulate This! (Part II - Why It Could Happen)
    The Tell: Did market just put in a bottom? and Awaiting a buy signal from VIX concern where the markets could go from here. The first of these articles warns: "So, played properly, Wednesday’s action is a buying opportunity, as long as you take the trouble to protect yourself from getting your head cut off because this is an economic backdrop that really and truly stinks.
    Beyond that: The bull's back is broken, says James Brumley and  Mark Hulbert: Market’s major trend now down. Given the consensus that doom lies ahead, I'd expect the market indices to rise until the bears doubt that this is a bear market. Then the markets will fall out from under the bears who have bought back into them.
    Market futures are up modestly tonight.