Daily Investment Interpretations
June 23, 2011
Night): The markets swooned
today and then partially recovered: Stocks
rebound on reports of new Greek austerity plan, 200-day
moving average holds again. The NASDAQ Composite recovered
(about as much as it lost yesterday) to 2,686.75. The Dow fell
to close at 12,050.80;
the S&P 500 lost 3.64
to end at 1,283.50. Oil dove to $91.8: Oil
sinks after IEA moves to release reserves; Gold plunged to $1,522.
The VIX rose 0.77
Five moves one hawk is making: Well-respected investment advisor Robert Arnett suggests five moves that could be advisable if Washington decides to print its way out of debt. The first is to dump traditional asset allocation. The second is to buy inflation adjusted Treasury bonds ("TIPS"). The third is to stock up on commodities. The fourth is to embrace emerging markets. And the fifth is to reach for high-yield bonds.
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Individual investor sentiment improves
5 hard questions many bears just canít answer
Peter Brimelow tells us that the Top letter is free, but frightening . The author hasn't posted for sic months, but his stock selections have done well. Last December, he recommended investing in gold and oil, and both have done well so far this year. He also expects a decades-long bear market which he forecast starting early this year. (He now says, "As usual, I was early.")
I, by contrast, expect the current secular bear market to continue through this presidential cycle but to shift into a secular bull market in the latter half of the next presidential cycle.
It's much too early to read much into market futures, but stock market futures are up ⅓ % tonight.