Daily Investment Interpretations

June 16, 2011

2011-6-16 (Thursday Night): The markets ended mixed, with the NASDAQ down, and the Dow and the S&P 500 up a bit: Dow, S&P 500 snap back. The NASDAQ Composite subtracted 7.76 points (-0.29%) to 2,623.70. The Dow advanced 64.25 points (0.54%) to close at 11,961.52; the S&P 500 gained 2.22 points (0.18%) to end at 1,267.64. Oil eased up to $99.24; Gold eased down to $1,531. The VIX rose another 1.41 to 22.73.
    Here are 11 reasons stocks will storm back soon. Peter Brimelow counters with Stock collapse and $12,000 gold? ... the usual "Tower of Babble".
    TopStock Portfolios' contributions to today's analyses are: 
Market Wrap: More Good News Than Bad,
Economic Research Research InstituteI Founder Calling For Prolonged Slowdown in U.S
    "On the U.S. economic front, there’s good news and bad news: The good news is the U.S. is “not yet” entering a double-dip recession. The bad news- we are headed toward a sharp and prolonged economic downturn. …at least according to a Wall Street Journal interview with Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a well-respected economic forecasting firm that has a strong track record for identify turning points in the market."
and Will They Muck It Up? 
    "I've been working under the assumption that the powers-that-be in Europe (the EU, ECB, the IMF, and the heads of the various PIGI states) would find a way to eventually "handle" the situation in Greece. Note that I did not say "fix" the situation in Greece, or Portugal, or Spain, or Ireland. No, I have merely been expecting the guys and gals in charge to find a way to avoid a "credit event" that, if not dealt with correctly, could threaten the global banking system all over again. Given the amount of time that the leaders of the world have had to work on this issue, I've assumed that they would figure out some way to make everyone (meaning the Germans) happy enough to kick this ugly can down the road - at least far enough to give the world some breathing room. However, with riots in the streets of Greece and the politicians now getting involved, I am becoming more than a little concerned that the politicos might muck this thing up. And in short, THIS is what Wednesday's dance to the downside in the stock market was all about.
"Looking ahead, once the powers-that-be DO actually ride in on their white horses and save the day, it is a safe bet that stocks will rally ferociously. And THEN traders can return their attention to the state of the U.S. economy. And on that note, if the data doesn't start improving, we might be in for a very long summer.
    Market futures are up slightly tonight.