Daily Investment Interpretations

April 1, 2011

2011-4-1 (Friday Night): The markets soared this morning on the back of a positive jobs report (In charts: Jobless rate) and encouraging remarks by the Fed, and then sagged into the close as oil topped $108 a barrel. The NASDAQ Composite ascended 8.53 points (0.31%) to 2,789.60. The Dow increased 56.99 points (0.46%) to close at 12,376.72, while the S&P 500 gained 6.58 points (0.5%) to close at: 1,332.41. Oil ended the day at $108.31 a barrel, while Gold closed at $1,429. The VIX fell 0.26 points to 17.14..
    The S&P 500 index closed tonight 11 points below its highest close  before the recent correction began. As the trend lines show below, it still

has some way to go... a gain of 40 to 60 points... to catch up with either one of them. One of its notable features is that its rate of rise since it bottomed on March 16th is shallower than the recoveries from other pullbacks (only slightly steeper than the trend line it's chasing), although it matches the latter half of the recovery from last August's decline. After that, stock prices could continue to rise for a month or two before any further major  setback occurs.
    On the other hand, the marketplace is full of surprises. For example, at some point, oil prices could once again engage the attention of the stock market. 
   In his article, In charts: Jobless rate, Mark Hulbert notes that investor sentiment is more pessimistic and anxious than it was on January 1st, which is very bullish for stocks. He also notes that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is close to flashing a strong market "buy" signal Waiting for the signal, All-clear signal for stocks? A close above 12,393, 16 points above where it closed tonight, would confirm a recent new high in the Dow Jones Transportation Average and augur a Dow Theory Forecast "buy" signal.
    Another article warns that it would be wise to "sell in April and go away": April strength makes for a great market exit.