Daily Investment Interpretations
October 4, 2011
(Monday Night): The
markets plummeted, then soared today, breaking back into their trading ranges:
Stocks zoom at day's end,
.Stocks Surge Late on Talk of Euro Bank Recapitalization,
Stocks: Bear market bounce.
Composite jumped 68.99
points (2.95%) to
close at 2,404.82.
The Dow advanced
at 10,808.71; the S&P 500 closed up 24.72
to settle at 1,123.95. Oil backed off to 76.13: Oil at worst in over a year;
gold jumped to 1,671: Gold rallies. The VIX
points to 40.82.
It's now more or less official: with the S&P 500 down more than 20%, we're in a bear market, with rallies perceived as opportunities to sell. After dipping to 1,075 this morning, the S&P 500 staged a "Bernanke bounce", then quickly fell back as institutions sold their stocks into the rally, and then vaulted upward in the last 45 minutes of trading as upbeat talk arrived from Europe:
Germany's FDP To Force Referendum on EFSF Support
Financial Times: EU Ministers Looking To Aid Banks
Bernanke Says Fed Is Prepared To Take Further Action. Will It Matter?, Bernanke bank bump fades.
Michael Ashbaugh: S&P, Dow confirm primary downtrend
Kevin Marder: The bear is at the door
Has the bull been gored? John Nyardi concludes that it probably has. His downside target for the S&P 500 is 1010.
Todd Harrison: Life after the market storm Todd Harrison suggests a performance-anxiety-driven year-end rally.
Mark Hulbert writes: Still hope for the fourth quarter. followed by: Key reversal day? A similar article is: Late reversal 'certainly a positive': strategist. Of course, the markets are very oversold and due for a technical rally.
I think Mark Hulbert's advice to stay out of the markets until the VIX falls below 20 is appropriate when dealing with these feverish market moves.
State of the Markets articles include:
Technical Talk: It's a Bear Market, So Naturally...
Goldman Sachs Says Recession in Europe; Cuts Global Forecasts
Bailout Decision for Next Tranche of Greece Cash Delayed
Troubled French-Belgian Bank Dexia May Be Nationalized
Factory Orders Down in August
Moody's Downgrades Italy Debt
Stock market futures are ¼ % lower tonight.