Daily Investment Interpretations

October 20, 2011

2011-10-20: (Thursday Night): The equity markets closed little changed today:  Stocks jet-lagged over E.U, Stocks claw back from deep losses, Stocks Buffeted By Headlines; Finish Higher on Hope for EU Solution The NASDAQ Composite shed 5.42 points (-0.21%) to close at 2,598.62. The Dow gained 37.16 points (0.32%) to 11,541.78; the S&P 500 tacked on  5.51 points (0.46%) to settle at 1,215.39. Oil adjusted down slightly to 85.98; gold fell to 1,626. The VIX advanced 0.34 points to 34.78.
   
The indices are still dancing around the tops of their trading ranges. 

    State of the Markets articles include:
    Technical Talk: Place Your Bets
    European Officials Now Considering Combination Fund at $1.3 Trillion 
    Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 6,000; Still Above 400K 
    EU Officials Unaware of Plans to Postpone Summit 
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Improves
    Philly Fed Index Bounces Back
    Existing Home Sales Down 3% in September    
    U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Up +0.2% in September; Chances of Recession 50%     
    Reuters: Germany Says No Decision On EFSF Leveraging at Summit 
    Merkel Cancels Scheduled Statement on EU Summit
    Second EU Summit Could Happen As Early as Wednesday 
    Bernanke To Submit Proposals To Lift Housing Market 
    Guardian: EU May Ban Downgrades of Countries in Bailout 
    From what I've gathered, Germany and France aren't in agreement about the size of the "haircut" bondholders must take on Greek bond defaults. France owns a lot more Greek debt than Germany. So there will be the scheduled EU summit this weekend where there will be agreements on less controversial issues and a chance for photo ops, followed by a second meeting where they get down the the gritty details of the Greek default.
    The rise in the Philadelphia Fed index was considered a big deal today because it was a fall in the Philly Fed index that ushered in the August-October market decline.
    The timid advance of the Leading Economic Indicators suggests a 50-50 chance of a recession in the first half of next year.
     Jon Markman has written an article discussing the apparent collision between upbeat results like the uptick in the Philly Fed index and the recession forecast of the Economic Cycle Research Institute: Right recession call: Wall Street or ECRI?. He notes that the ECRI is generally predicts recessions several months before the final stock market peaks that are the last hurrahs before the recessions. 
    Rex Nutting says, We need more inflation. And finally, Fed to the re-rescue?
    Market futures are up tonight 
2011-10-20: (Thursday Night): The equity markets closed little changed today:  Stocks jet-lagged over E.U, Stocks claw back from deep losses, Stocks Buffeted By Headlines; Finish Higher on Hope for EU Solution The NASDAQ Composite shed 5.42 points (-0.21%) to close at 2,598.62. The Dow gained 37.16 points (0.32%) to 11,541.78; the S&P 500 tacked on  5.51 points (0.46%) to settle at 1,215.39. Oil adjusted down slightly to 85.98; gold fell to 1,626. The VIX advanced 0.34 points to 34.78.
   
The indices are still dancing around the tops of their trading ranges. 

    State of the Markets articles include:
    Technical Talk: Place Your Bets
    European Officials Now Considering Combination Fund at $1.3 Trillion 
    Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 6,000; Still Above 400K 
    EU Officials Unaware of Plans to Postpone Summit 
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Improves
    Philly Fed Index Bounces Back
    Existing Home Sales Down 3% in September    
    U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Up +0.2% in September; Chances of Recession 50%     
    Reuters: Germany Says No Decision On EFSF Leveraging at Summit 
    Merkel Cancels Scheduled Statement on EU Summit
    Second EU Summit Could Happen As Early as Wednesday 
    Bernanke To Submit Proposals To Lift Housing Market 
    Guardian: EU May Ban Downgrades of Countries in Bailout 
    From what I've gathered, Germany and France aren't in agreement about the size of the "haircut" bondholders must take on Greek bond defaults. France owns a lot more Greek debt than Germany. So there will be the scheduled EU summit this weekend where there will be agreements on less controversial issues and a chance for photo ops, followed by a second meeting where they get down the the gritty details of the Greek default.
    The rise in the Philadelphia Fed index was considered a big deal today because it was a fall in the Philly Fed index that ushered in the August-October market decline.
    The timid advance of the Leading Economic Indicators suggests a 50-50 chance of a recession in the first half of next year.
     Jon Markman has written an article discussing the apparent collision between upbeat results like the uptick in the Philly Fed index and the recession forecast of the Economic Cycle Research Institute: Right recession call: Wall Street or ECRI?. He notes that the ECRI is generally predicts recessions several months before the final stock market peaks that are the last hurrahs before the recessions. 
    Rex Nutting says, We need more inflation. And finally, Fed to the re-rescue?
    Market futures are up tonight