Daily Investment Interpretations

September 12, 2010

2010-9-12 (Sunday) The markets rose somewhat again today on more good news: U.S. jobless claims fall,  Deutsche Bank pares gains, and Trade gap narrows in July; imports fall.  The NASDAQ Composite sjifted 7.33 points (033%) to 2,236.20 The Dow rose 56.38 points (0.27%) to close  at 10,415.24, and the S&P 500 added 5.13 points (0.48%) to end at 1,104.18. Oil closed at $74.04 a barrel, while Gold ended the day at $1,246. The VIX dropped 0.44 to 22.81.
    The fall in jobless claims raised a few eyebrows. This was a holiday weekend and not all states posted their jobless claims in time to be counted. The markets reflected this skepticism along with bad news from Deutsche Bank: U.S. stocks hit by Deutsche Bank report. (This is a news-driven market, presumably because everyone's cautious  about calling which way the economy will break when it finally emerges from this current period of uncertainty.)
    Right now, the news is much better than it was when the indices were at the bottoms of their respective trading ranges.
    If the news continues to improve, it would seem to me that this could feed on itself, improving the public's "animal spirits". How could matters improve? Perhaps with uplifts from emerging and other international markets. 
    Mortgage rates turn higher. This suggests to me that mortgage applications are picking up. 
    Prepare for the pullback: Tomi Kilgore  This article declares that the true test of whether the markets will continue to rally will depend upon how they respond to adversity. He predicts selling pressure tomorrow and Friday that will test the mettle of the current market rise.
    High-dividend plays and Five consumer stocks with stable dividends offer ways to make modest amounts of money from dividend-yielding stocks. 
    Here's the New York Times' Maureen Dowd, The Poodle Speaks, on Tony Blair's new autobiography, "The Journey": "He knew Dick Cheney had a grandiose plan to remake the world and no patience for 'namby-pamby peacenikery. He would have worked through the whole lot, Iraq, Syria, Iran,' as well as 'Hezbollah, Hamas, etc.,' Blair writes of Cheney, adding: 'He was for hard, hard power. No ifs, no buts, no maybes. We’re coming after you, so change or be changed.'
    This article, Dealing with Social Security, in The Economist mentions in passing that from 1980 to 2005, more than 80% of the gain in Americans' incomes went to the top 1% of the population. "(For more, check out Tim Noah's new multimedia display on rising income inequality.)"
    Market futures are up slightly tonight.