Daily Investment Interpretations
March 5, 2010
2010-3-5:
The markets roared today on truly good news. The February jobs report, Unemployment's
in check, 'Job
data signal economy turning corner (video)', The
job-market and consumer news is good, and bad, while still showing a decline
of 36,000 jobs (perhaps because of bad weather), fell less than expected, and
continued the string of muted job losses that characterized the latter half of
2009 (see the chart below). Meanwhile, total unemployment remained steady at
9.7%. Next month's unemployment number may swing back above the line.
Also, the (China) Halter Index rose back above both its
50-day and its 25-day moving averages.

The NASDAQ Composite charged up 34.04
points, (1.48%)
to close at 2,326.35, the Dow racked up 122.06
points (1.17%)
to
close at 10,566.20, and the S&P 500 ran
up 15.73
points (1.4%)
to close at 1,138.70. Oil closed up at $81.50 a barrel. Gold
rose to $1,138. The VIX
fell 1.3
to 17.42.
The NASDAQ hit a new 2009-2010 high today, whereas the Dow
and the S&P did not. Curiously, the markets advanced today even though the
dollar also rose: Dollar
up.
If the market indices fail to register new highs within the
next week or two, it will suggest an intermediate market top in which the
indices approach but don't quite reach their previous highs, and gradually work
their way lower. But if the indices manage to move a little higher, my
advisory inputs have been suggesting rising markets through April or May,
followed by a possible second leg of the recession. It will all depend upon
whether the world's economies have been sufficiently stimulated to
"re-prime the pumps", so that consumer demand can take up the slack
left by the declining stimulus packages.
Mark Hulbert is warning that, now that it appears the economy
is recovering, Advisory
bullishness nears too-high levels. Generally, about the time professional
investment managers quit lying awake nights worrying about a bear market, it's
time for the next bear market to begin.
Here's an article on Warren Buffett's prowess: Blown
out by Warren Buffett, and here are some alternative energy articles: T.
Boone Pickens' slimmer wind plan, Renewable
energy faces opposition (video), ECO-nomics:
Craig Venter on Making Synthetic Fuel (video), Doerr
waiting for energy's 'Netscape moment', and The
future of the electric car market.