Daily Investment Interpretations

March 5, 2010

2010-3-5:  The markets roared today on truly good news. The February jobs report, Unemployment's in check, 'Job data signal economy turning corner (video)', The job-market and consumer news is good, and bad, while still showing a decline of 36,000 jobs (perhaps because of bad weather), fell less than expected, and continued the string of muted job losses that characterized the latter half of 2009 (see the chart below). Meanwhile, total unemployment remained steady at 9.7%. Next month's unemployment number may swing back above the line.
    Also, the (China) Halter Index rose back above both its 50-day and its 25-day moving averages.

    The NASDAQ Composite charged up
34.04 points, (1.48%) to close at 2,326.35, the Dow racked up 122.06 points (1.17%) to close at 10,566.20, and the S&P 500 ran up 15.73 points (1.4%) to close at 1,138.70. Oil closed up at $81.50 a barrel. Gold rose to $1,138. The VIX fell 1.3 to 17.42.
    The NASDAQ hit a new 2009-2010 high today, whereas the Dow and the S&P did not. Curiously, the markets advanced today even though the dollar also rose: Dollar up
    If the market indices fail to register new highs within the next week or two, it will suggest an intermediate market top in which the indices approach but don't quite reach their previous highs, and gradually work their way lower. But if the indices manage to  move a little higher, my advisory inputs have been suggesting rising markets through April or May, followed by a possible second leg of the recession. It will all depend upon whether the world's economies have been sufficiently stimulated to "re-prime the pumps", so that consumer demand can take up the slack left by the declining stimulus packages. 
    Mark Hulbert is warning that, now that it appears the economy is recovering, Advisory bullishness nears too-high levels. Generally, about the time professional investment managers quit lying awake nights worrying about a bear market, it's time for the next bear market to begin.
    Here's an article on Warren Buffett's prowess: Blown out by Warren Buffett, and here are some alternative energy articles: T. Boone Pickens' slimmer wind plan, Renewable energy faces opposition (video), ECO-nomics: Craig Venter on Making Synthetic Fuel (video), Doerr waiting for energy's 'Netscape moment', and The future of the electric car market.