Daily Investment Interpretations

August 18, 2009

2009-8-18:  "Turnaround Tuesday" lived up to its reputation , with the NASDAQ Composite up about 25.08 points (1.3%) to close at 1,955.92, the Dow rising 82.6 points (0.9%) to settle at 9,217.94 and the S&P 500 increasing 9.94 points (-1,01%) to end at 989.67. Oil closed at $69.99 a barrel, while gold rose $3 to $939. The VIX fell 1.71 to 26.18.
    My investment advisory service says that it's nearly certain that the markets will rebound to their recent highs, but after that, it's anybody's ball game. They are looking for an additional 20% from here, which would take the S&P 500 to about 1,200, the Dow to about 12,000, and the NASDAQ to 2,400, after which the behavior of the markets will depend upon the shape of the recovery--V-xhaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, or L-shaped. Also pertinent to this is the fact that September is the worst month of the year for equities.
    Meanwhile, "an increasing count of analysts say the recent turn in equities has more to do with overbought conditions than much else": What goes up must come down.
    After tomorrow's close, I'll get an update from the China and Emerging Markets Report regarding the Chinese marketplace.