Daily Investment Interpretations

July 8, 2009

2009-7-8:  Although the market indices managed to struggle back up to the break-even point, the future direction of the market appears to be down. (I didn't get the reading on yesterday's action before today's opening, so I had to wing it, using my own assessment of the situation.)
    The NASDAQ Composite rose
1.0 point (0.06%) to 1,747.17, the Dow tacked on 14.81 points (0.18%) to close at 8,178.41, and the S&P 500 shaved 1.47 points (-0.17%) to end at 879.56  Oil fell  to $60.38 a barrel, while gold dropped $20 to 909. The VIX added 0.45 to 31.30. About half of the day's gains came in the last half-hour of trading with the news that the latest U. S. Treasury bond offering had been very well received, sending interest rates a little lower.
    The outlook is suitably gloomy, but the VIX doesn't mirror much concern, and that indication of complacency is, to me, a worrisome thing.
    The Halter China Index dipped below its 50-day moving average today, triggering a Cabot sell signal for some Chinese stocks.

2009-7-8 (Noon):  It looks as though the answer to that question is "yes". 
2009-7-8 (Morning):  Everybody agrees that the stock market has broken down: The market's head and shoulders may have broken, The market's head and shoulders may have broken. Given that everyone knows that the markets are heading down, will they?