June 30, 2009
The indices fell somewhat today, and my normally optimistic advisory
service was pretty pessimistic this morning. The principal news driving
this seems to be the fact that consumer sentiment dropped below 50% this
month, after rising above 50% last month. The continuing layoffs are
An updated jobs report will come on Thursday.
Composite ended the day down
to 1,835.04, the Dow
close at 8,447.00, and the S&P 500 divested
itself of 7.91
to end the day at 919.32
a barrel, while gold
Apparently, the recovery is back on. the VIX
Michael Ashbaugh writes, S&P reclaims 900 mark.
He thinks Thursday's job report may set the tone. In the meantime, during
a holiday-shortened week, there's not a lot going on.
Estimating the Market's Rise in an Anemic
Supposing the economy recovers to a new, lower norm
than its 2007 level. How high would that be from here?
Presumably, GDP--and therefore, earnings--will be
several percent lower than they were in 2007, at least until GDP growth
can catch up with the 2007 levels. So presumably, earnings, after
correcting for inflation, will plateau several percent below their 2007
levels. But they won't settle at a level 40% below their 2007 measures. In
fact, in a year or two, I would expect them to level out a few percent
below their 2007 highs, rising to their 2007 values in another year or
two. But this means that the stock market may approach 2007 levels within
the next two to four years, doesn't it?