March 9, 2009
Right now, the markets are extremely oversold, and the
news is so pessimistic, you could bottle it in small vials and sell them
for souvenirs at an Optimist International convention. So why haven't the
markets rallied the way they're supposed to rally when conditions are as
they are now? The official explanation according to
Strategists' list of market-bottom signals
is that the news is getting steadily worse, and the markets are slowly
falling in response.
They also mention that when the markets quit falling on
bad news, we'll be on our way back up.
I don't have time at the moment to write up what I've
been learning, but the bottom line is that the news seems to me to be
quite bad, and the start of the next bull market appears to me to be far
For a hair-curling assessment of our situation, read Specter
says nation on 'brink of a depression'. The article says,
"Specter, R-Pa., said the nation's economic situation is more dire
than the public has been told, but did not elaborate." It quotes
Senator Specter as saying, "'Our economic problems are enormously
serious _ more serious than is publicly disclosed. And I think we're on
the brink of a depression.'" "'Had there been
no stimulus, I think we'd have gone right off the edge,' he said. 'I think
we're pretty close to the edge anyway, to be very brutally blunt about
Paul Krugman's article Behind the Curve
today warns that he is concerned that, come September, the Obama
Administration will have squandered its opportunity to take effective
action against this economic hurricane. Unemployment may be running 9%.
The Republicans will accuse the administration of having squandered all
that money with nothing to show for it, and Obama won't be able to get
through Congress the legislation he needs to keep the country (and the
world) from cratering.
Three other articles that speak to our economic
Behind the jobless report, signs of a long recession,
What's bugging the
Pros: This Is Uncharted Territory.
A bit of upbeat news may be found in Encouraging Signs of Life in the Real Estate Market.