Daily Investment Interpretations

March 9, 2009

2009-3-9:   
    Right now, the markets are extremely oversold, and the news is so pessimistic, you could bottle it in small vials and sell them for souvenirs at an Optimist International convention. So why haven't the markets rallied the way they're supposed to rally when conditions are as they are now? The official explanation according to Strategists' list of market-bottom signals is that the news is getting steadily worse, and the markets are slowly falling in response. 
    They also mention that when the markets quit falling on bad news, we'll be on our way back up.
    I don't have time at the moment to write up what I've been learning, but the bottom line is that the news seems to me to be quite bad, and the start of the next bull market appears to me to be far away. 
    For a hair-curling assessment of our situation, read Specter says nation on 'brink of a depression'. The article says, "Specter, R-Pa., said the nation's economic situation is more dire than the public has been told, but did not elaborate." It quotes Senator Specter as saying, "'Our economic problems are enormously serious _ more serious than is publicly disclosed. And I think we're on the brink of a depression.'" "'Had there been no stimulus, I think we'd have gone right off the edge,' he said. 'I think we're pretty close to the edge anyway, to be very brutally blunt about it.'"
    Paul Krugman's article Behind the Curve today warns that he is concerned that, come September, the Obama Administration will have squandered its opportunity to take effective action against this economic hurricane. Unemployment may be running 9%. The Republicans will accuse the administration of having squandered all that money with nothing to show for it, and Obama won't be able to get through Congress the legislation he needs to keep the country (and the world) from cratering.
    Three other articles that speak to our economic problems are:
Behind the jobless report, signs of a long recession,
What's bugging the Dow?, and
Market Pros: This Is Uncharted Territory. 
A bit of upbeat news may be found in Encouraging Signs of Life in the Real Estate Market.