February 5, 2009
markets rose today, but that's only part of the story. The significant
other part is that the financial media are egging investors to buy stocks:
Stocks at infectious
U.S. stocks at or near declines where investing makes sense, News
flash: Rate cuts really work,
and Senate leader Reid sees enough votes to pass stimulus bill.
So is the economy really signaling a turn? Actions by the government may
boost stocks: Senate stimulus vote may come Friday
and Geithner to unveil administration's rescue plan.
to close at 1,546,
the Dow added 106.41
to end at 8,063,
and the S&P
to land at 846.
settled at $40.95,
to close at $914.20.
remained essentially unchanged at 43.73.
Let's talk about what we might do if we think the
markets really have bottomed.
First, we're not going to really know whether or not
the markets have bottomed. It's going to entail a leap of faith.
Second, the stock markets will climb a wall of worry,
so there will be chills, thrills, and spills all the way up. Probably the
best we can do is invest pre-planned fractions of our money
staircase-style as the market moves up, selling in a similar way if
the market moves back down again. What should we buy? My choices would be
the Ultra Emerging Markets Fund, UUPIX, the China Ultra ETF index fund,
FXI, the Wilderhill Green Technology Fund, PBW, Vestas (VWSYF), and a few
others that I'll try to add tomorrow. (I don't have time tonight to
perform the calculations needed for a detailed strategy.)
I don't think it's a done deal that President Obama
will get his fiscal stimulus plan, or at least, not in a timely manner.
In the bad news department,
Jobless claims at
their highest point since 1982,
and MarketWatch First
Take: Labor market still getting worse.