Daily Investment Interpretations

November 25, 2009

2009-11-25: The indices rose slightly. The NASDAQ Composite worked its way up`6.87 points, (0.32%) to end at 2,176.05, the Dow tacked on 30.69 points (0.29%) to close at 10,464.40, and the S&P 500 climbed 4.98 points (0.45%) to 1,110.63. Oil added $1.94 to end the day at $77.94 a barrel, while gold gained gained $21 to close at $1,188. The VIX gained 0.04 to 20.51.  
    It seems to me that the market indices may be showing the kinds of patterns that occur at market tops.
    Good news carried the markets higher today, with the week's unemployment figure coming in at 466,000... high, but lower than 500,000, and falling: Jobless claims fall.
Mark Hulbert writes: Gold timers very bullish: "The average gold timer is now more bullish than on each of the past four occasions in which the gold market has topped out, a worrying sign." He also writes: Elliott Wave adviser even more bearish.  
In a repeat from last night: "Marketwatch columnist Darrell Delamaide echoes Paul Krugman's assessment that President Obama is making the same mistake President Hoover and later FDR made by buying into the deficit hawks' arguments that the budget deficit rather unemployment is the big danger: Hoover vs. Keynes. " Paul Krugman's columns are resonating strongly with this concern about where this recovery is--or is not--going: Permanent Link to Deficit hysteria, Permanent Link to Notes on the dollar panic, Permanent Link to Gee, thatís De Pressing, Permanent Link to Money, mouth, Permanent Link to A familiar feeling, Permanent Link to A bizarre complacency, Permanent Link to No exit, and Permanent Link to Ramsay MacDonald.          
    It's interesting in this connection that the Fed sees a durable recovery coming, continuing through the next few years.
    Also from last night: "Marketwatch Chief Economist
Irwin Kellner: It's beginning to look a lot like a 'W'. Dr. Kellner advances arguments that the economy is beginning to look as though it's heading south... Todd Harrison's 'widow's peak'".