Daily Investment Interpretations

November 18, 2009

2009-11-18: The indices fell a bit today (particularly, the NASDAQ). The NASDAQ Composite shifted down`10.64 points, (-0.48%) to end at 2,193.14, the Dow slipped 11.11 points (-0.11%) to close at 10,426.31, and the S&P 500 lapsed 0.52 points (-0.05%) to 1,109.80. Oil rose slightly to $79.67 a barrel, while gold gained $2 to close at $1,141. The VIX fell 0.64 to 21.77.
    The markets declined on a reduction in housing starts: Housing takes a turn for the worse., and inflation that rose 0.3% in October versus an expected 0.2%: Retail-level inflation up 0.3% last month. Here's one inflationary discussion and forecast: The future of inflation (video). Mark Hulbert writes: Another Dow Theory buy signal?.
    I'm afraid that this market may be rolling over and topping out. Stock market futures are down for tomorrow, and have been gradually falling. If the S&P 500 fails to make it to at least 1,120 on this "cycle", it would seem to me that the indices may be signaling an intermediate-term (multi-month) top. 
    Todd Harrison offers these thoughts about the economy: The other side of the dollar. Mr. Harrison's "widow's peak" concerns haven't materialized so far, but that doesn't mean that they won't. Another forecast he has made concerns social unrest. We'll see.
    A discussion of global markets is given here: What investing map looks like without U.S..
    Now is probably a good time to be lightening up, at least on a short-term basis (and since we can never be sure with the stock market whether a short-term turn will metamorphose into a long-term turn in the markets, we probably have to treat short-term changes as though they could be long-term alterations.