Daily Investment Interpretations

November 16, 2009

2009-11-16: Today, the indices broke upward out of their recent range. The NASDAQ Composite annexed `29.97 points, (1.38%) to end at a post-March high of 2,197.85, the Dow climbed 136.49 points (1.33%) to close at 10,406.96, and the S&P 500 increased 15.82 points (1.45%) higher at 1,109.30. Equally important, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ broke through their resistance ceilings, confirming the post-March highs registered by the Dow last week. Oil declined to $78.88 a barrel, while gold gained $23 to close at $1139. The VIX fell 0.47 to 22.89. 
    The most remarkable thing to me about what's happening in the equities markets is the way they're tracing out a more-or-less predictable pattern of ascending peaks and valleys. As I mentioned last Wednesday, if the indices behave as they have for the past few months, the S&P 500 will hit an intra-day high of 1,120 to 1,130 this week, followed by a dip to 1,150 or 1,160toward the end of November, and then a final "Santa Claus" rally into December. But the indices abhor patterns, so things may not go according to Hoyle.
    Stock market futures are down a small fraction of a percent tonight. Also, the indices look as though they might be in a topping phase. But "might" is the operant word.