Daily Investment Interpretations
November 16, 2009
Today, the indices broke upward out of their recent range. The
Composite annexed `29.97
to end at a post-March high of 2,197.85,
the Dow climbed 136.49
close at 10,406.96,
and the S&P 500 increased
higher at 1,109.30.
Equally important, the S&P 500
and the NASDAQ broke
through their resistance ceilings, confirming the post-March highs
registered by the Dow
last week. Oil declined to $78.88
a barrel, while gold
to close at $1139.
The VIX fell 0.47
The most remarkable thing to me about what's happening in the equities markets is the way they're tracing out a more-or-less predictable pattern of ascending peaks and valleys. As I mentioned last Wednesday, if the indices behave as they have for the past few months, the S&P 500 will hit an intra-day high of 1,120 to 1,130 this week, followed by a dip to 1,150 or 1,160toward the end of November, and then a final "Santa Claus" rally into December. But the indices abhor patterns, so things may not go according to Hoyle.
Stock market futures are down a small fraction of a percent tonight. Also, the indices look as though they might be in a topping phase. But "might" is the operant word.