Daily Investment Interpretations

November 10, 2009

2009-11-10: The markets were basically unchanged today. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 2.98 points, (-0.14%) to end at 2,151.06, the Dow jumped 20.03 points (0.2%) to end at 10,246.97, and the S&P 500 ended 0.07 points (-0.01%) to 1,093.01. Oil slipped 12 to $78.95 a barrel, while gold hit another new high at $1103. The VIX fell 0.31 to 22.84. 
I had estimated that if the markets continued to make the kinds of waves they've made since March, the S&P 500, currently at 1,093, should reach about 1,130 next week, and should fall back to a minimum around November 30th. However, this last dip was deeper than prior declines, and the peak could be lower, with markets "rolling over" at a market top. The overall  multi-month, mini-bull market might be nearing its peak, and might correct or worse after the end of this year.
    This is the first down day (if it can be called a down day) after six up days in a row that have raised the S&P 57 points.
    The markets have moved up because it's become evident that the Fed isn't worried about inflation and isn't planning to raise interest rates any time soon.