Daily Investment Interpretations
October 14, 2009
Today was the
day that the Dow broke 10,000 (10 years after its first penetration of
the 2000 mark).
NASDAQ Composite rose
to end at 2,172.23,
the Dow galloped 144.8
finish at 10,015.86,
and the S&P 500 trotted
up at $75.82
a barrel, while gold
unchanged at $1,065.
The VIX fell
J. P. Morgan and retail sales exceeded analysts' expectations.
Typically, when the Dow crosses a new line in the sand, it's followed by a pullback. The markets may have risen far enough to warrant another dip, but typically, this is preceded by a few days of topping before the markets roll over and tumble back down.
Tonight, the S&P 500 is up 63.7% from its March low. The greater part of its rise is probably behind it. (A 42% increase from here would put it back at its October, 2007, peak.) At the same time, as a cyclical bull market in an ongoing secular bear market, it could turn tail at any time.
The Chinese Halter Index is now well above its 26-day and 50-day moving averages. For what it's worth, the Halter Index is still about 40% below its (frothy) 2007 peak. And of course, the Chinese economy has been growing over the past two years.