Daily Investment Interpretations

January 27, 2009

2009-1-27:   The U. S stock markets rose yet again today. This is happening in stealth mode--slowly and gradually--which is the most effective way for it to occur. A stealthy rise doesn't invite dramatic downturns, and it lowers volatility, suggesting that greed is quietly ascendant over fear. Financials pace gains.
    The  NASDAQ gained 
15.44 points (1.04%), ending at 1,505. The Dow moved up 58.7 points (0.72%) to close at 8,175. The S&P 500 climbed 9.14 points (1.09%) to 846. Oil closed at $42.17 a barrel, and gold dipped $9.30 to end at  $901.40 an ounce. The VIX fell 3.44 to 42.25.
    The principal reason for these advances is that earnings are coming in better than expected. Added to that could be expectations of a stock market boost from the upcoming fiscal stimulus package. Signs of a bottom?
    For what it's worth: Trend remains bearish in the near term, writes Michael Ashbaugh
. Mr. Ashbaugh is careful to point out that if, for example, the S&P 500 continues to rise above 850, that would be considered bullish. Conversely, if it falls below 805, that would be considered bearish.
   
The U. S allegedly lost 71,400 jobs yesterday Downturn sees 70,000 lose jobs in a single day and Consumer confidence at record low; money, job worries persist.
    Mark Hulbert has written: The upside of unemployment, pointing out that high levels of unemployment are generally followed by rising stock markets (since high levels of unemployment usually signify economic bottoms).
    Paul Krugman has prepared several commentaries tonight, beginning with Permanent Link to How late is too late?, dealing with the question of the timing of the fiscal stimulus package. Other entries are Permanent Link to Charles Stross seminar, Permanent Link to Proud of a new Gilded Age, Permanent Link to Memories of the Ford administration, Permanent Link to Madoff economics, and Permanent Link to A Dark Age of macroeconomics (wonkish).