Soon, Everybody Will Have Nukes
by Richard Reeves
1/9/2003

   Do not be shocked to read or see in a week, a year or five years, a declaration by Japan that it has decided , as a matter of self-defense, to build nuclear weapons and missile systems to deliver them. Or perhaps it will be Brazil. Or South Korea. Or Turkey. Or gypt. or Saudi Arabia. Or Mexico.
    In just two years, the Bush administration has managed to undo the decades of work all over the world to try to prevent the proliferation of "the bomb." In talking of pre-emptive strikes against "evil" regimes---evil, of course, being in the red-white-and-blue eye of the beholder.
    The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which took effect in 1970, obligated the five acknowledged nuclear weapon states (the United States, Soviet Union, Great Britain, France and China) not to transfer weapons or technology to other countries. One hundred and eighty seven non-nuclear countries signed the treaty, pledging not to seek weapons or technology. (Cuba, Israel, India and Pakistan are the only non-signers.)
    There has been cheating, of course---North Korea and South Africa are believed to have nuclear capability, along with the non-signers Israel, India and Pakistant---but the treaty has been considered successful for more than 30 years. No nuclear weapons have been used since the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan during World War II>
    Among the many dirty little secrets in the concept of no-proliferation was that the nuclear countries, led by the United States, were institutionalizing their military advantage over the rest of the world. But the smaller and poorer nations, generally, were willing to accept that. They signed partly to spend their money on more pressing needs than nuclear security---if their neighbors did not have the bombs, they did not need them---and a belief that they would never become targets of the nuclear countries.
    That consensus is cracking now, and the Bush administration is a significant part of the reason. There are countries, such as Israel, India and Pakistan, that developed weapons because they had reason to fear their neighbors. Now there are countries or their "evil" leaders, beginning with Iraq and North Korea, and ending we know not where, who seem determined to defend themselves against the United States.
    President Bush has, in fact, dramatized another of the dirty little secrets. The non-proliferation treaty divided the world into "haves" and "have-nots". Or, to put it another way, the world is divided into adult countries and child countries. The grown-ups are the ones who have the bomb.
    For all the talk these days, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, a dreadful place under his dictatorship, does not have nuclear weapons. The United States is preparing to invade it. Kim Jong Il's North Korea, a far worse place, perhaps the worst on the planet, does have the bomb (at least the Central Intelligence Agency believes it does). and the White House is debating whether to talk or not to talk. Attacking or bombing North Korea is not being discussed by this most bellicose of administrations. Well, maybe Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfield is thinking about it, but he seems to be thinking about fighting most everyone.
    The bomb is the immoral equivalent of a non-aggression treaty. Ironically, such a treaty, and some money, seems to be what Kim wants from the united States. He is said to believe that the United States is determined to wipe out his regime and country. We would like to, but we can't, because he may have nuclear capability and missiles aimed at South Korea or Japan. North Korea also has a million-man army and enough long-range artillery to hit Seoul with 500,000 rounds in the first hour of a war.
    And it is not only Kim and Saddam Hussein who perceive the need for self-defense against the Americans. Certainly, the clerical leaders of Iran, who are now trying to build or buy nuclear weapons, want the means to defend themselves against the Americans. Bush and Rumsfield, and their advisors, are scaring the hell out of many people around the world. The smarter of these folks, in places like Seoul, Tokyo, Brasilia and the rest, probably think the Americans don't know what they're doing---and must be beginning to think about taking care of their own defense.
    For our part, we cite Sept. 11 and certain surly dictators as the reason for our new belligerence. As always, we mean well, or think we do, but that does not make us any less dangerous to the foreigners beholding us and hearing our threats.