The Robots Are Getting Closer - 5


Future Index

Can Computers Become Fast Enough and Cheap Enough Soon Enough?
    Dr. Marovec's forecast of computers that become smarter than we are between 2030 and 2050 is based upon the assumption that by the year 2030, we will be able to build low-cost computers that are 333,000 times as powerful as present-day 3 GHz (Gigahertz) computers. That may not happen on that schedule.  

Some Key Points:

    Computer technology technology will be a pacing item in robotics realizations.

Robotics May Arrive Much Sooner Than I Thought
    What's particularly exciting is what will be available within the next few years... soon enough to begin planning and setting up the laboratory environment for higher-level artificial intelligence. Given cheap teraflops chips by 2005, we might see 10-teraflops chips by 2010, and 50 teraflops chips by 2015. As indicated at the bottom of this page, RAM and disk memory may be sufficiently low-priced that within 10 years (2013), a private individual might be able to afford adequate computing resources (at a total cost of the order of $6,000) to conduct his/her own 2025-level research program into robotics. It may mean that ten years from now, robots will be farther along than has been projected.
    It's also clear that the big money is going to be in industrial applications in which human "service representatives" can be replaced with artificially intelligent computer programs, as described below.

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