*The
Adult Termites' IQ Distribution,
vs. a Gaussian IQ Distribution*

Figure 1 below shows a plot of the distribution of the adult
Termites' *deviation* IQs (standard deviation = 16), as measured by the CMT-A
test, versus the Gaussian distribution of *deviation* IQs expected in the
adult population of 160,000 of the children in the "main group" who
were screened by Terman, et al, in 1921-22. I have truncated the Gaussian
distribution so that it show no scores below deviation-IQ = 136 in order to
avoid swamping the Termites' data.

Figure 2 presents the full set of data.

Figure 1 tells a shocking story. The IQs distribution
depicted by the Gaussian (pink) curve is, *by definition*, the distribution that
we would expect to find in a randomly-selected population of 160,000 adults
above a deviation IQ of 135. (I haven't included the rest of the Gaussian (for
IQs below 136) in Figure 1 because it would swamp the rest of the data, as you
can see in Figure 2 below.)

About
820 of the adults in a randomly-selected population would have deviation IQs ranging between 136 and
140, compared with only 51 of the Termites. In other words, as adults in 1940,
only about 1/16th of the adults with IQs between 136 and 140 were enrollees in
Dr. Terman's Study.

About 434 adults would have been expected with adult
deviation IQs between 140 and 144, of whom 64 would have been Termites. In other
words, about 6 out of every 7 adults drawn from the original population of
160,000 schoolchildren in Dr. Terman's "main group" who had Adult IQs
between 140 and 144 wouldn't have been included in Dr. Terman's Study.

About 196 adults with deviation IQs between 144 and 148
should be found, of whom 60, or about 3 out of 10 would have been Termites.

About 110 adults with deviation IQs between 148 and 152 would
be expected, and about 46 of them would be Termites.

About 36 adults with IQs between 152 and 156 would be
expected, whereas there are 52 Termites with those scores. As both Figure 1 and
Table 1 reveal, there is excellent agreement between the Gaussian curve and the
Termites' curve above an IQ of 152. This is
consistent with the idea that the Terman screening recruited all of the very
brightest kids.

To sum it up, practically all the adults with IQs above 152
were Termites. Fewer than half of the adults with IQs below 152 were Termites
dropping to one gifted adult out of every 16 with IQs below 140. In other words,
the majority of all the gifted adults with IQs below 152 were overlooked by the
Terman study.

To reiterate, the pink curve represents all the individuals
who were screened for *possible* inclusion in the Terman study, while the
blue curve shows the individuals who *actually were* selected for the
study. The pink curve is the upper end (IQ = 136+) of the actual distribution of
deviation IQs of the 160,000 adults whom Terman screened, as children, for his
study back in 1921.

Figure 1 - The (Gaussian) distribution of deviation IQs among 160,000 adults
versus the distribution of adult IQs among the Termites.

Figure 2, below, shows the full range of expected IQs for the
upper half of 160,000 adults versus the Termites' adult IQs, as measured on the
CMT-A in 1940. Table 1 shows the data in Figure 2.

IQ Range |
104 | 108 | 112 | 116 | 120 | 124 | 128 | 132 | 136 | 140 | 144 | 148 | 152 | 156 | 160 | 164 | 168 |

Termites | 1 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 35 | 30 | 49 | 60 | 51 | 64 | 60 | 46 | 52 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 2 |

Gaussian | 11,500 | 11,000 | 9,000 | 6,800 | 4,900 | 3,800 | 2,300 | 1,300 | 820 | 434 | 196 | 111 | 36 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 2 |

Table 1. - The Distributions of Termite IQs versus the Distribution of IQs in the Entire Population

I derive two conclusions from this.

First, it's no wonder the Termites' didn't include any
geniuses. The very smartest members of the candidate population may have
been Termites, but a large fraction of the not-as-smart but still exceedingly
intelligent adults were excluded from the Termites' group.

Second, there has been quite a bit of "percolation"
of IQs, with nearly half the adult Termites falling below the 140 Stanford-Binet/136
deviation-IQ threshold for the Terman Study. Perhaps, a fifth of the Termites
fell far enough below the threshold that mere test-retest regression doesn't
explain it.

Quantitatively, there were 22 children in the Terman
"main group" with childhood deviation IQs between 128 and 136. There were 160
children with IQs between 136 and 140.

Looking at the table above, there are 22 adults with
deviation IQs ranging between 104 and 116, 35 adults with IQs below 120, 70
adults with IQs below 124, 100 adults with IQs below 128, and 49 adults with IQs
between 128 and 132. About five points of test-retest decline would be expected
on retaking the same test, and about eight points of decline would be predicted
upon taking a different test.

If we were to reduce the childhood deviation IQs by eight
points, we would have 22 children in the main group with IQs between 120
and 128, and 160 children with IQs between 128 and 132. Comparing that
with Table 1 above, all 35 of the adult males with IQs below 120 actually
lost IQ points growing into adulthood. After subtracting 8 points for
test-retest and cross-test IQ losses there were 22 children with IQs below 128,
but 100 adults with IQs below 128. Obviously, there was serious decline here,
too. Note that the Termites' places are taken by other adults .. 6,100 of
them with IQs between 120 and 128, and 38,300 with IQs between 104 and 120.

Richard M. Nixon was a Termites, so at least one of them
attained a high level of eminence.