Seventy-one students graduated from Stow Public
High School in June, 1947. Fifty-two of them, or 73% are
still alive. Yesterday, on the way home from the reunion, it occurred
to me that lifestyle, as well as chance and genetics, must play
a role in the generation of life expectancies. Some unfortunate
individuals have had shortened life-spans because of inherited
disabilities such as diabetes or hyperlipodemias (conditions that
should soon be correctable). Others are felled by accidents, or
similar acts of chance... which brings us to life styles.
To some degree, there must be attrition among those who have embraced
unhealthy life styles. I don't know what the average life expectancy
is among an average group of 18-year-old high school graduates,
but if you subtracted those with life-shortening conditions and
those who practice unhealthy health habits (e. g., living on junk
food) from the total group, you would probably get a significantly
higher life expectancy than you would for the group as a whole.
The good news is that if the average life expectancy
at birth is somewhere in the seventies, the average life expectancy
at 18 would be, perhaps, two or three years higher than that.
If you subtracted out those poor folk who have a predisposition
toward an early demise, and those who don't strive to maintain
good health, the remainder probably has an extended life expectancy
in the eighties or nineties. With this go advances in medical
science that may be responsible, in part, for the fact that life-spans
are rising 1/4th year per year with no end in sight. Twenty years
from now, life expectancies should be 5 years greater than they
are today. Forty years from now, life spans would be 10 years
greater than they are today. And 80 years from now, if we can
simply extrapolate this trend, they should be 20 years greater
than they are today. . . if you take care of health. (This
ignores the advances that I think will take place in longevity
research. This is based simply upon the extrapolation of current
trends.) (One dark horse is a company that has been established
recently by Harvard to bring to market the protein or proteins
that bestows long lives on centenarians.)
One influence might be our growing knowledge of regimens that
tend to ward off cancer, and that protect against cardiovascular disease. Cures
or preventives for Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease will give a
little boost to life expectancies. Ditto for other autoimmune diseases, such as
lupus and multiple sclerosis. The discovery of a way to mimic the effects of
restricted caloric intake would be a breakthrough in slowing the aging process.
Of course, these gradual improvements in health and longevity
have brought other problems in their wake. People are living longer, and no
doubt, there are other people who don't want anyone to live longer than they
have in the past (except, maybe, themselves when their turn comes). But it seems
to me that the extension of youth-spans that has occurred over the 20th century
has been a very positive thing. In 1900, the elderly had to live with their
children and grandchildren, and that was not a happy situation for anyone.
Some members of our class may be expected to
survive at least into their nineties, and more pleasantly than
nonagenarians have had it in the past.
It has been said repeatedly that the average
life-span can't increase much beyond what tit is now, and that
the maximum life-span can't exceed its present maximum value.
In the 18th century, scientists had shown
that if a vehicle went faster than about 20 miles an hour, its
driver/passengers would die (of asphyxiation?).
My grandparents were assured that Harvard's
Dr. Simon Newcomb had shown that passenger-carrying, heavier-than-air
flying machines were forever impossible.
When I was a child, it was absurd to imagine
that anything could ever be propelled into outer space. "What
goes up, must come down. There's no air to push against out there.
The temperature in the highest layers of the Earth's atmosphere
is hundred of degrees Fahrenheit. You'd burn up if you reached
them. Anyway, rockets just blow up and kill their creators. Look
at that Max Valier fella'!.Even if you could build a rocket ship,
and it worked, and didn't explode or burn out or like of that,
it can't go faster than its exhaust. And even if you could make
it take you into space, why would you want to go there? There's
nothing out there! That's why they call it 'empty space'! And
who would pay for it? Companies aren't going to invest money in
something that has no payoff."