Last night's "editorial"
said,
"The Dow-Jones Industrial Average topped
out at 11720 in January, 2002, and the S&P 500 peaked at 1527.46
in March, 2002. Today, the Dow closed at about 8410, while the
S&P 500 ended the day at approximately 8828."
It should have read,
"The Dow-Jones Industrial Average topped
out at 11720 in January, 2000, and the S&P 500 peaked at 1527.46
in March, 2000. Today, the Dow closed at about 8410, while the
S&P 500 ended the day at approximately 882."
Steve Coy caught it, and pointed it out to
me. (I try to proofread what I've just written, but it's usually
late at night, past my bedtime, and errors slip by me.) Thank
you very much, Steve.
Well, did you
buy, hold, or sell today? As you're probably aware, the Dow-Jones
Index dropped a wonderful 380 points during the day, to 8,019,
while the S&P 500 retreated to 848. The NASDAQ fell back to
1,319. Five minutes before the bell rang, the Dow had fallen to
7991, but there was a last-minute, knee-jerk rally that pulled
it up 8,019.
Why a "wonderful" 380 points? First,
because the lower the indices go, the closer we get to a bull
market. And second, because it's bringing us deeper into safe
territory.
So what did I do today? I reinvested the receipts
from the Fidelity Select Home Finance and the Fidelity Select
Energy Services funds that
I sold on May 4th. The prices of these funds have dropped
along with the rest of the stock market since then, so it was
good that I sold them when I did. Prices may still go lower from here,
but this is a good level. I put it all in the Fidelity Select
Technology Fund. The Select Technology Fund has fallen from an
early-2000 high of $110 a share to a closing value of about $20
a share today. I've followed it since 1982. If I had invested
our money in it in 1982 and had simply left it there, we'd have
been relatively wealthy by March, 2000. And if we had, by now,
we'd have lost 9/11ths of it, and would have been devastated.
Oh, well! Easy come, easy go.
When I telephoned Fidelity to make my Technology
Fund purchase, the woman who processed the transaction said,
"You're buying it when it's cheap, aren't
you? You're looking at this market as a buying opportunity, aren't
you?"
I said, "Yes".
She said, "This market is ridiculously
low. People are panicking. I've had other customers today who
were snapping up bargains. But most people don't have any money
to buy. It's already invested in their mutual funds."
I said, "I hope you have some money to
invest, too."
She said, "Unfortunately, no."
We still have some money in very conservative
funds that can be reprogrammed into more daring ventures. I'll
play it by ear on Monday, If the stock market seems to be sinking
lower, I may hang fire. Unfortunately, when the turnaround comes,
it will probably be as violent as the sell-off was today. The
Dow will leap several hundred points in one day, followed by several
more days of galloping gains. I'll probably rotate our conservative
funds into the worst of our fallen angels. Nobody wants computer
stocks these days. Nobody's buying personal computers right now,
so there's the feeling that it may be years before most organizations
decide to buy them again. That's OK. I can afford to wait years.
When they do switch to a buying mode, they'll make up for lost
time. (I suspect that the recession and the evaporation of the
dot.com euphoria has caused organizations to reassess just how
often they need to trade computers. But trade they must.)
My every instinct says that this is the final
bear market blowout. Of course, I could be wrong. The stock market
could go even lower, which would make it an even better buy. However,
it's now in familiar territory, and not at a dangerous level.
(It's not dirt-cheap even at 8,000. And after factoring in inflation,
the Dow will have to hit 13,500 in 2004, to catch up with its
March, 2000, zenith.)
The NASDAQ is worth a few words. It's more
volatile than the Dow or the S&P 500. In October, 1990, it
hit a low of 315. In March, 2000, it closed above 5,000! That's
a 16-fold rise in 9.5 years! It's comprised of smaller companies,
which grow faster than larger ones. If Tommie and I could own
a NASDAQ index fund, that would probably be the only fund we owned.
But I've never seen an index fund that mirrors the NASDAQ Composite.
I'm going to be recommending to the other members
of our family that they prepare for a coming bull market, beginning
as early as Monday. (I'm going to suggest that they determine
what investment changes they want to make and be prepared to make
them, and that they then check on the stock market each afternoon
about an hour before it closes to decide whether or not to act
that day.)