10-10-2001
(Later): After
rethinking the problem, I've realized that what I said below is
totally unrealistic. There isn't apt to be a national emergency
or a national traffic jam. Instead, an attack would probably be
like Florida's anthrax attack. localized, and slow to be
detected. Offhand, I could imagine three scenarios: wind-driven
poison gas or spores, person-to-person contagion, and suitcase-sized
nuclear bombs comparable to World-War II blockbusters.
Wind-driven anthrax spores would be undetectable.
Wind-driven poison gas would require immediate
evacuation downwind from the point of release, as would wind-driven
radioactive fallout from a tiny nuclear device. However, this
evacuation would be localized, and would require outrunning the
wind.
Tiny nuclear devices would destroy a couple
of blocks in a city. The one known Soviet-developed device weighed
163 pounds. Other nuclear devices might be detonated in aircraft,
trucks, or ships. However, these are not readily available (and,
one might hope, not available to terrorists at all). But in any
case, they would produce localized effects rather than city-busting
damage.
I won't say more until I have done a better
job of thinking this through.
10-10-2001: I would reiterate yesterday's
recommendation regarding The
Politics of Rage- Why Do They Hate Us?,
by Fareed Zakaria . Mr. Zakaria says,
"Bin Laden and his fellow fanatics are products of failed
societies that breed their anger. America needs a plan that will
not only defeat terror but reform the Arab world." I
found Section 10 particularly interesting. The message in
Section 10, written by Jonathon Alter, is that some intellectuals
"are unforgivably out to lunch"."Critics of the
war on terrorism dont seem to understand: someone is trying
to kill them." Arab terrorists are products of a resurgent
fundamentalism in Muslim affairs, and the U. S., as the poster
child for Western influence and the supporter of Israel, is, to
a large degree, a scapegoat. For example, Mr. Zakaria points out
that Arab nations may decry the plight of the Palestinians, but
he suggests that neighboring Arab nations haven't helped them
or been willing to take them in. (Lebanon has come the closest.)
I'm working on contingency planning for Tommie
and me, and for our family members, in the event of trouble. My
first thought was that we would "head for the hills",
but then I realized that U. S. traffic would be in a state of
total gridlock. Legally, U. S. citizens aren't supposed to drive
on Interstate highways during times of emergency, since the Interstates
are reserved for official and emergency vehicles. Even if this
weren't the case, under the best of conditions, Interstates can't
accommodate more than, perhaps, 5,000 to 6,000 cars per lane per
hour. (Imagine what would happen when you add out-of-state traffic
to evacuation traffic in the neighborhoods of large cities.*)
Everyone ought to be encouraged to become aware of alternative
routes to get out of town. Everyone ought to be warned against
blocking intersections, and thereby blocking cross-traffic to
alternative routes.
Ruth and I were in an emergency-evacuation
situation like this once, when a blizzard suddenly descended on
Birmingham, Alabama.. What happened was total gridlock. There
would have been many ways to leave town, but people who were trying
to use the main escape routes blocked the intersections so you
couldn't get across town to the lesser roads. The reason was that,
if drivers didn't block the intersections, other cars would enter
from the side streets. Of course, once the side streets had emptied
out, this would no longer have happened, but by then, everyone
had adopted the practice of ignoring traffic lights and blocking
intersections.
This is terribly inefficient. Bumper-to-bumper
traffic moves fewer than 1,000 vehicles per lane per hour.
* - Several steps might be taken to improve urban traffic. One
step would be to open up the berm to traffic. (Or maybe not. Emergency
vehicles presently use the berm.) Another might be to station
radio-equipped police or volunteers at freeway entrance ramps
to control traffic entry. These personnel should be located at
the entrances to the entrance ramps so that, if freeway traffic
locks up, it would be feasible to follow other routes. (Police
and volunteers--e. g., school traffic volunteers--ought to be
out in force to keep traffic moving.) Some inbound lanes might
also be used for outbound traffic, leaving only a lane or two
for incoming emergency vehicles. Here again, the berm might be
pressed into service.
Bridges are choke points. Two lanes might
have to be reserved for emergency vehicles. Alternatively, one
lane could set aside, provided that there were some way to control
the one-way traffic.
All other things being equal, it would
probably be better to be in rural, than in urban areas during
troubled times, but for most of us, properly equipping our households
so that they can be "self-quarantined" and maintained
in a 4-to-6-week state of self-sufficiency is probably going to
be a better approach than trying to run somewhere. It wouldn't
take much to saturate rural retreats.
I'll be sharing more of this after I've
done a better job f thinking it through. Right now, we're thinking
in terms of bottled water, a portable radio, possibly an electric
generator, and so forth.
The student intern, who wrote a letter.to
American Media telling them he "had a surprise for them",
has been cleared of any mischievous intent. His surprise was a
bag of bagels and a package of cream cheese for them in their
refrigerator.
One of the interesting questions about
what will undoubtedly be demonstrated to be an anthrax terrorist
attack upon American Media concerns the timing. Bob Stevens died
of a massive dose of anthrax spores. The incubation period for
such heavy exposure can be as little as two days. If the anthrax
attack was launched a week before the World Trade Center atrocity,
the terrorists risked alerting the world to their September 11th
intentions.
Another interesting question is: "Why
didn't anthrax spores show themselves in American Media's air
filters?" Fortunately, unlike smallpox, anthrax isn't readily
contagious.
The principle lesson to be learned from
this attack might be that bioweapons aren't easily effective.
On the other hand, if it turns out that these anthrax spores were
concocted in some nation's laboratories....
10-9-2001: I should probably emphasize
my lack of any personal experience or knowledge of the Middle
East. My "conviction quotient" regarding my opinions
is quite low. That said, here are two discussions of the situation
that I thought are well-met.
Afghanistan's
suffering and The
Politics of Rage- Why Do They Hate Us?