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Wednesday, June 7, 2017:   Liz Parrish saw an increase in the median length of her leukocyte telomeres by 800 base pairs, along with increased muscle mass, reduced C-reactive protein, and improved insulin sensivity.
    Emboldened by Liz Parrish' results, Bill Andrews (Sierra Sciences) has linked with Liz Parrish (Bioviva) to launch tests in humans before the end of 2017. These treatments will initially cost $1,200,00 per person, but a parallel effort will go into reducing the cost of such treatments to the point where anyone can afford them.

Monday, January 4, 2016:   I mentioned below that the results of Liz Parrish' gene therapy experiment might be revealed around December 15, 2015, at the three-month milestone. I have just read that her plan  calls for the first checkup to occur at 5 months post-treatment (February 15th), followed by subsequent testing at 8 months and 12 months, and then annually for 7 more years.
Tuesday, December 8, 2015: 

    It's time to begin adding something of interest to this web page.
Can Telomerase Activation Reverse Aging?
    Michael Fossel, M. D., Ph. D. (and Ed Park, M. D., M. P. H.) think so  
    Dr. Fossel's just-published book, "The Telomerase Revolution", is, in my opinion a "must-read" book", worth every penny of the $19 it costs. Dr. Park has also written a similarly compelling book on this topic, entitled, "Telomere Timebombs: Defusing the Terror of Aging". Dr. Park's 2013 book starts used at $17.11, which tells us how popular it is.
    Josh Mitteldorf, Ph. D., provides an excellent discussion of the possibilities for telomerase therapy
    One intriguing news item is that Elizabeth Parrish, the CEO of a biotech company called BioViva, has taken the bull by the horns and commissioned a gene therapy treatment (on September 15th) that aims at implanting an additional copy of the telomerase gene in every cell in her body. A concern with this is a possible elevated risk of cancer.
    M(r)s. Parrish is undergoing monthly testing to see what effect this telomerase activation has had, including possible lengthening of her leukocytes' telomeres, along with measurements of her percentage of short leukocyte telomeres. The 15th of December (a week from today) will mark the three-month anniversary of her September-15th transfection. This might be a time when some of her results will be disclosed.
    Gene therapy typically reaches 5% to 60% of all cells, so the results of this first experiment may not be all that dramatic. However, there are other techniques waiting in the wings for delivering telomerase, not to mention telomerase activators such as TA-65 and TAM 818 (which I'm currently testing). 
    Last month, on her Facebook page, Liz Parrish published a close-up picture of her right eye. It looks picture perfect, the eye of a 20-year-old. I'm wondering if she's telling us that there have been visible results?
    Here's Dr. Fossel's assessment of Liz Parrish' "DIY Gene Therapy".
    Harvard's George Church, Ph. D., has opined that he thinks we're close to (within 5 or 6 years of) reversing aging.
    These are interesting times. The question isn't "whether we'll reverse aging" but "when"... perhaps between now and 2020?

Thursday, December 3, 2015:  
    The rnseitz site is still unavailable.

Wednesday, March 5, 2014: 
What I wrote below on Wednesday, December 11, 2013, is still relevant. The difference in the risk of death and morbid disease between someone who's unable to find time to exercise, and who eats a traditional Western diet (pizza, lasagna, mashed potatoes and gravy, ham, wheat bread, English peas, margarine, Cokes, etc.) and someone who engages in daily, vigorous aerobic and non-aerobic exercise and who eats a Mediterranean or similar diet is awesome! The question then becomes: what do these super-health habits do for longevity? It's hard to imagine them adding 20 years to the lifespan of someone who, without exercising or eating a super-healthy diet would live to 95. That would make them last to 115, and there are precious few 115-year-olds. 
    Another way to estimate the gain afforded by uncommonly healthy health practices is to use the life expectancy for the average 75-year-old. For a man born in 1920 who will be 95 next year, the average life expectancy is 2.84 years. The average life expectancy of  a man born in 1940 who will be 75 next year is 10.18 years. This would give our hyper-healthy 95-year-old male an average life expectancy of 105 compared to about 98 if he hadn't taken such good care of himself. (Note that our super-healthy nonagenarian may enjoy many more years of excellent health and vitality than the typical 95-year-old.)
    Which is the better metric: adding 20 years to his life expectancy or adding 10 years to his life expectancy? I don't know. This may be a question that will have to be answered the hard way by waiting to see how long super-healthy people will live.
    It might be worth mentioning that the 20-year-or-so disparity between the "health nuts" and the average couch potato doesn't seem to diminish with advancing age.
    Dr. Thomas Perls has noted that beyond the age of 90, genes seem to play an increasingly important role in determining the longevity of the "oldest old". Still, Jeanne Calment's mother died at 86, her father at 93, and her older brother at 97. I suspect that her consumption of red wine (at a time when red wine would have had significant levels of resveratrol), of two pounds of chocolate a week, and of stone-pressed  olive oil might have played a role in her extraordinary longevity (122 years).
    About 70% of all super-centenarians die of transthyretin-related amyloidosis caused by misfolding of the transfer-thyroxin-retinol protein in the circulatory system. A drug, tafamidis, has been approved in Europe to treat transthyretin-related amyloidosis, but it's not yet accepted in the United States. There's hope that this disease may be conquered.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014:
  Ms. Chloe Pearson, with Consumer Health Labs, has graciously provided four heart health articles that may be of interest to readers interested
in heart health:
1/22/2014: Heart Health Procedures Covered by Medicare Part B
1/22/2014: 10 Myths About Heart Disease
1/22/2014: Heart Failure Resource Library
1/22/2014: Find an Experienced Cardiologist
Sunday, January 12, 2014:
working on a lengthy evaluation of the feasibility of delaying aging 15, 20, or 25 years. Here's an Oxford University summary I encountered that concludes that a low-risk lifestyle reduces mortality risk by a factor of about 10 compared to a high-risk lifestyle. Assuming that the risk of dying (mortality risk) doubles every 7 years, this factor of 10 translates into a mortality risk corresponding to a little more than 21 years. (This includes a ~10-fold reduction in cancer risk!)
Thursday, December 12, 2013: 
   I've run out of time again tonight, but you might enjoy reading Nuts about Nuts
    It might also be mentioned that in talking about delaying aging for 15, 20, or 25 years, we're discussing delaying cancer, heart disease, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, Type 2 diabetes, and osteoporosis... consummations devoutly to be wished. And this is where anti-aging technology stands on December13, 2013, with the outlook improving daily. 

Wednesday, December 11, 2013: 
  It looks as though health-and-fitness devotees who engage in aerobic exercise for 30-or-more minutes a day, along with resistance training, nutrition-oriented diets, stress reduction (viz.: meditation), and appropriate supplements (e. g., omega-3 oils, vitamin D, coenzyme Q-10, etc.) have aging biomarkers that are 20-or-more years younger than those of the average, sedentary, somewhat-overweight individual who eats a conventional Western diet.
    Since life spans become more and more dependent upon longevity genes the older someone gets, it remains to be seen whether these 20-or-more-year, healthy-living aging biomarker offsets are reflected in actual life span increases.

Sunday, November 17, 2013:
Getting Rich Slowly.
Wednesday, November 6, 2013:
Five Interesting Articles
Monday, October 28, 2013:
The Great American Income Gap.
Wedneday, October 23, 2013:
More about federal finances.
Thursday, October 17, 2013:
Hyperventilating about characterizations of the U. S. Federal debt. Here's a link to a previous discussion of this topic.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013: 
Some personal experiences with U. S. Federal programs (updated).
Friday, October 4, 2013: 
A couple of articles about the government shutdown.
Thursday, October 3, 2013: 
We live in interesting times.
Tuesday, October 1, 2013: 
There may be light at the end of the tunnel.
Monday, September 30, 2013:
Saturday, September 28, 2013:
  More of the same.
Thursday, September 26, 2013:
  Another day at the hospital. My wife is doing well, but isn't enjoying it much.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013:
"Tomorrow", now "today", has been what you'd expect: a day spent at the hospital. Although the operation went as well as operations can, my wife may feel worse before she feels better as the spinal block wears off and soreness sets in. We'll see what the morrow brings.  
Monday, September 23, 2013:
I'm still not done with my latest update (an answer to David Moenning's question, "Are we entering a new secular bull market?) The answer is, I believe, that we're more apt to enter a secular bear market than we are a secular bull market. The price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is at a level typical of market tops. But there's more to it than that, and that's what my lengthy write-up will be about.
    I mentioned last Tuesday that my wife was having knee surgery that day. But she took a generous bite of ham before she remembered that she wasn't supposed to eat anything before surgery. Later, after she was on the operating-room gurney, she told the staff what she's done. They immediately released for another day, and that day will be tomorrow. So I don't know what my schedule will be tomorrow and the rest of the week.
    The model portfolio fell further on Monday along with the rest of the markets, (It's up 2.47% tonight.)
Thursday, September 19, 2013:  My apologies for last night's missing updates. My web-hosting service decided to take a break at midnight last night. In addition to that, I wasn't happy with what I had prepared to post. I was having a brainstorm, and it took until tonight to finish up the material.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013:
I've added a model portfolio and some fantasies about secular bull markets and about where the markets might possibly go from here (or maybe not (:-)) under Today's Investment Commentary (see below).
Important! Monday, September 16, 2013:
Beginning tonight, I'm going to make a sea change in this website.
    Over the past few years, my attention has, in self-defense, turned toward anti-aging strategies. As a consequence, my investing activities have been put on autopilot. I've harvested and posted daily investment news headlines in lieu of investment ideas, strategies, and results. This news-gathering function has taken so much time each day that there hasn't been time left for more creative activities. Like what? Well, several times over the past few years, I've set up model stock portfolios that have done phenomenally well. Unfortunately, I've never had the courage of my convictions to actually invest money in them, but if I had, I (and you) could have profited handsomely
    In the arena of anti-aging strategies, there's also interesting news.
    This website desperately needs updating and repairs. I also hope to have time for this.
Sunday, September 15, 2013: The trailing P/E ratio on the S&P 500 is still only 18:1, so the S&P 500 is no more overpriced now than it was last April.
Sunday, April 7, 2013:
As an update to what I wrote last November, the trailing P/E ratio on the S&P 500 is around 18. (It's long-term average has been about 15.) Its normal upper limit is 20-to-25, so it's fully priced but not yet overpriced. It would have to drop to 10 or below to constitute a secular (super-) bear market bottom. Here's a chart that gives a decent picture of the S&P 500's history from four years after its inception in 1871 until the chart's 2005 closing date. 
    I'm working on an update to this topic of secular bull markets and secular bear markets, but I'm not quite through with it yet.
    In my opinion, the equity markets are not "asset bubbles" at this time. 

Tuesday, November 27, 2012:
Here's a first and second installment in a discussion of some investment options.
Sunday, November 25, 2012:
On the basis of new information, I'm going to have to change some of the material I posted on Friday (below). I'm going to change the peak P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio in 1999 from 38:1 to 34:1. Further, the S&P 500 index has only now deflated to the top of its normal range. If the past can be used to guide the present, we could be typically looking at another 16 years--2028--before the S&P 500 falls to a secular bear market bottom, and then begins to re-inflate! 
    During this entire period, "buy-and-hold" is a money-losing strategy.
    There's one domestic mutual fund that has returned more than 15% a year over the past 10 years: the Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock Fund. This was a favorite of mine in 2007, and I had some money invested in it, but it was hit so hard by the 2008 downturn that I cashed out of it. It's a wild ride (it's a Morningstar three-star fund), but it's done better than most domestic funds. However...(1) most of its gains were made  during its early years when the markets were rebounding from the 2002-2003 bear market, and (2) U. S. market indices are now near the seasonably favorable tops of their ranges, poised to decline sometime in the next six months. A better measure of their prowess are their five-year track records, which are measured from their 2007 bull market peaks.
    On the other hand, our previous four-year market cycles have been predicated upon the Fed's manipulation of credit markets in order to fight either inflation or unemployment, and this time, the Fed's hands are tied, so maybe we won't have typical post-election market declines.
    Fortunately, there are alternative strategies that ought to work... emerging market mutual funds, commodity funds, real estate funds, the AAII stock screen portfolios, and the TopStock market timing service, to name a few. These have their pros and cons. 

Friday, November 23, 2012:
I'm getting ready to revamp this website in ways that I hope will offer more personal benefit than what I've been posting in the past. Like what? Well, over the past year-and-a-half, I've been investigating exotic, "bleeding-edge" anti-aging therapies. Some examples are Life Code's "Stem Cell 100", TA Sciences' TA (Telomerase Activator)-65, buckyballs in olive oil, the Life Extension Foundation's "Calorie Restriction Mimetic", modest calorie restriction, PQQ (PyroloQuinoline Quinone) and other esoterica. Are they working? That's hard to tell, but maybe so.
    A related topic is health maintenance.
    Another is investment and the economy. Right now, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are lower than they were 13 years ago in 1999. But in 1999, the S&P 500 hit a P/E ratio of 38:1... quite a bit higher than it had ever been throughout its previous history. Similarly, the Nasdaq topped out at 5,500 compared to its current readings of around 3000. Over the past 13 years, the markets have been working off this once-in-two-centuries excess. The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is currently around 16:1... reasonable but not cheap. In the meantime, we're ostensibly in a secular bear market that's due to end in the 2016-2018 time frame at P/E ratios substantially lower than they are now.
   I'm working on writing this up, but it may take a little longer.
    In a lighter note, with Christmas vacation only four weeks away, here's a site that offers vacation packages for Disneyworld: Flying Elephant Vacations.
    The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has stock screens (portfolios) that promise extraordinary long-term returns. I had thought about recommending this as a viable investment strategy, but the markets have been so chaotic that I haven't followed up on this. Here's a discussion of some to the AAII stock screen performance claims.
    Wednesday, I wrote this discussion of two current views of intelligence.
    Sunday, I probed others' experiences with the dual n-back program, as well as running it for myself.
    Switching now to more frivolous topics, this business of "brain boosting" seems to me to have repercussions well beyond "Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who's the smartest one of all?" This would seem to me to be of importance to everyone who plans to grow old... to age-related cognitive decline, and to the avoidance of Alzheimer's Disease, not only for ourselves but also for those we love.
   This could be game-changing.
    (1) My own personal story (Updated) .
    (2) The Flynn Effect and Age-Related Cognitive Decline
    (3) Brain Boosting: Quo Vadis, Dominie?
    (4) Preliminary Results of My "Brain-Boosting" Experiment (Sunday Update)
    (5) the first example of one of these lists is a set of 153 cancer prevention news articles dealing with the relationship between food, herbs, etc., and cancer. It may be found here.
    (6) A general listing and discussion of some putatively beneficial nutritional foods, spices, and supplements is given here. Entire books have been written regarding each of the items set forth in this list. I plan to expand upon this material, but this gives a skeletal outline of foods, and food-derived extracts that I try to consume. (What's needed most is a presentation of what these "nutriceuticals" have done for some of us and might do for you.)
    There should be a lot happening on this website over the next few days and weeks, given time to report on these topics.

2013-10-7: (Monday Night):
  Today's Investment Commentary  


Links to Daily Investments Interpretations (Individual Dates)

First-Half, 2012
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Daily Investment InterpretationsArchive 
July 1, 2011 to December 31, 2011

January 1, 2011 to July 30, 2011  
July 1, 2010 to December 31, 2010

January 1, 2010 to July 30, 2010
July 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009
January 1, 2009 to June 30, 2009

July 1, 2008, to December 31, 2008
May 7, 2008, to June 30, 2008

11/12/2008:   The stunning implications of the fact that we're, perhaps, in a super-bear market are only now penetrating my skull.   
A Buy-and-Hold Strategy Applied from the Start to the Finish of a Super-Bear Market (e. g. 2000 to 2018, Assuming That This Concept Is Valid) Would Typically Lead to 60% to 65% Losses Over the 17-18-Year Period After Correcting for Inflation and Adding in Dividends!
    Over the course of a (typical?) 17-to-18-year long super- bear market, the value of an S&P 500 index fund, after correcting for inflation and adding in dividends, typically drops to 1/3rd of its value from the beginning to the  end of the 16-year secular (super-) bear market period. In talking about a "typical" super-cycle, I need to mention that these super-cycles are inferred from the chart pattern of the S&P 500 from 1871 to the present. Over that time span, there have been 3 super-cycles and, it would appear, part of a fourth, from 2000 to the present time... if, in fact, these super-cycles are real enough to have predictive value. But no two of these super-cycles have been just alike. ("History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."?) You might take a look at the above-linked chart displaying the S&P 500 from 1871 to 1997 and see what you think.
Where We Stand Right Now, and Where We Might Go from Here:
    So far, money invested in an S&P500 index fund in March, 2000, has fallen by now, after correcting for inflation and adding in dividends, to about of what it was worth in March, 2000. However, because the S&P 500 was overpriced by... 65%?... in March, 2000 (by far the most overpriced it's ever been), then if we are in a super-bear market, this money in 2018 should be worth about 40% what it is now. In other words, money invested in a buy-and-hold S&P 500 index fund in March, 2000, should be worth, in 2018, only about 1/5th what it was when it was invested in 2000!
A Buy-and-Hold Strategy During a Super-Bull Market Yields Dramatic Gains
    (b)  All of the long-term gains registered by buy-and-hold investors occur within super-bull markets, and they're sufficient to overpower the fall of the price of equities, in real value, to 1/3rd of their previous highs, plus the average 6.8% a year that Dr. Jeremy Siegel has found for the long term average rate of return of the U. S. stock market from 1802 through 2004. This points to a staggering conclusion: our best stock market strategy would be to sell our stocks at the beginning of a super-bear market, and to avoid stock investments for the next 16-to-18 years until the beginning of the next super-bull market. So how many  individuals and companies that make money by selling investment services do you think are willing to tell their customers to avoid the stock market for 16-to-18 years at a stretch? Yeah, that's the same number I came up with, too.
But... We're in Uncharted Territory
    Because we're in uncharted territory, experiencing the first deflation since the Great Depression, the markets could go lower than usual, although we might expect them to return to their hypothetical trend lines by 2018 (no guarantees, of course).
These Speculative Predictions and Interpretations Apply Only the the U. S. Stock Market
    These predictions, if they unfold as they have in the past, apply only to the U. S. stock market. I have no data concerning non-U. S. markets (although non-U. S. markets have a habit of moving more-or-less in lock-step with the U. S. stock market). I'm particularly hopeful that the Chinese and Indian stock markets  may decouple from the U. S. market over the coming years.
  Over the weekend, I've re-examined the subject of super-bull markets and super-bear markets, and I don't like what I've found. Of course, there's nothing that says things have to work out this way, but the numbers are suggesting a super-bear market bottom in 2018 that would be 55% to 65% below where the popular indices stand today even if our current malaise turns out to be a standard, garden-variety recession, with a cyclical bull market starting up again in 2009 or 2010.
    A buy-and-hold strategy in most mutual funds in such a scenario would be a disaster, although there may be a few funds that can outperform the market sufficiently that you'd come out well ahead even if the blue-chip index funds lose 2/3rds of their purchasing power. The above-linked write-up will explain.
11/2/2008 Important (Second) Update:   This "recession" is categorically different in cause and consequences than any of the normal recessions we've experienced over the past 60 years. Unlike all the other recessions since World War II, this recession (Depression?) is deflationary, driven by a credit crisis, rather than a result of the Federal Reserve Board's overshooting its mark in its efforts to slow the economy in order to rein in inflation. This may be "The Perfect Storm".
6/7/2008:   As many of us are probably aware, there are now techniques that seem to subtract 15 or more years off our biological ages. It will be decades before such results can be verified through large-scale, long-term studies, but some of us are availing ourselves of these "bleeding edge" stratagems, with dramatic improvements in such ponderable parameters as blood lipid profiles, fasting glucose and insulin sensitivity levels, and related health measures. Along with living longer (and, in fact, these disease reductions are prerequisites to living better longer) are techniques for putatively  reducing the risks of cancer, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and Type 2 diabetes. Again, there are no guarantees. It will take decades of large-scale, long-term, placebo-controlled studies to validate the various pilot studies that have been conducted to date... studies that are concerned with special nutritional and supplement interventions that don't involve patentable drugs. Still there's compelling evidence that some of these maneuvers really do work. For example, As an example, four years ago, I was going to my dermatologist every three months to have actinic keratoses--sunlight-induced, pre-cancerous lesions--frozen off the top of my head. After I began drinking green tea four years ago, these lesions disappeared and have never returned--in keeping with numerous studies showing that green tea fights skin cancer. Other members of the Calorie Restriction Society have had a similar experience. This is certainly anecdotal, but nevertheless, this is  what's happened.  
    Another example of startling discoveries that, to my knowledge, haven't made it into widespread public view is Harvard Medical School researcher Dr. Norman Hollenberg's discovery that the Kuna Indians, who live on a relatively isolated group of islands off the Caribbean coast of Panama, have 1/10th (that's 10%!) of the age-adjusted rates of heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, Alzheimer's disease, and cancer than do their North American counterparts. (See this for diabetes.) The key to this seems to lie in their drinking 3 to 5 cups a day of "raw" hot chocolate. (The crucial ingredient seems to be epicatechin.). These dramatic reductions in degenerative diseases aren't attributable to genetic inbreeding, because Kuna Indians who move to the mainland and adopt mainland diets suffer the same ills that plague the rest of us. (You can buy this unprocessed cocoa at outlets like iHerb.)
    Because this is more potent than resveratrol, I'm wondering what effect this has upon aging and life expectancies.
    In the meantime, here's an article about aging interventions that I wrote in 2006 but never published.

I Goof Up:
  Last fall, on the 21st of September, I declaimed that "My personal guess is that the stock market is going to recover from its deep, steep dip and climb higher (with some ups and downs) for the remainder of the year. I'm also speculating", quoth I, "that we won't go into a recession before 2009, after the 2008 presidential election." 
    Boy, was I wrong! Actually, the stock market continued to rise to new heights, peaking on October 11th. But then it did the unthinkable: it plummeted to new lows--like two tornadoes howling down the same path.
    Having lost all of my own August-to-October ill-gotten gains and a bit more besides, I'm going to try prognosticating again, along with some ideas about investments. (This will be changing rapidly over the next few days, so you may want to check back again.)
    Here is an article I published in the March issue of "Gift of Fire" reviewing recent articles and books that discuss psychopaths.


moresetstats 1

9/15/2008:   Videos: (Note that it takes a little while to download these videos, during which time the screen is blank.)
9/15/2008: Amber Eating Macaroni
9/15/2008: Amber and Mommy on the Garden Bench